US Olympic Team Announced

[drivingmissdaisy]

By placing 2nd at US Nationals, Ilya got himself into Priority Group 3. 1-3 place is Priority Group 3. 4-5 place are priority group 4.
So 1-5 are not treated the same at all. 1-3 are treated the same and 4-5 are treated the same.

Sorry, I meant comparing Ilya to Jason/Vincent, Ilya could have won and Jason in 5th and according to your interpretation of the criteria it should be treated the same as if Ilya was 3rd and Jason 4th. Or Ilya finishing ahead by 1 point or 50 points should be treated identically, according to the published criteria.

 

[el henry]

I found this article, which was a balanced discussion of the pros and cons of Ilia v. Jason (and it didn't really take a position. When I say balanced, I mean balanced, not "balanced for a Jason fan". ) It was a very limited discussion, with none of the details of the USFS criteria.

Excerpt:

It begs the question: Do you go with exciting youngster with the high ceiling or the safe veteran with the high floor?

US Figure Skating picks experience over youth for Beijing

U.S. Figure Skating's selection committee caused a stir Sunday night when it selected veterans Vincent Zhou and Jason Brown over 17-year-old rising star Ilia Malinin to join Nathan Chen at the Beijing Olympics

abcnews.go.com

 

[moonvine]

Sorry, I meant comparing Ilya to Jason/Vincent, Ilya could have won and Jason in 5th and according to your interpretation of the criteria it should be treated the same as if Ilya was 3rd and Jason 4th. Or Ilya finishing ahead by 1 point or 50 points should be treated identically, according to the published criteria.

Good gravy. I’m not “interpreting” it. If Ilya had won he would be in Priority Group 3. If hr had come in 3rd - still Priority Group 3.

Nathan was in priority Group 1. Vincent was in Priority Group 2. By the time US Nationals happened, there was no way for any other US man to get info Priority Group 1 or 2. Jason was in Priority Group 3. By virtue of placing 2nd, Ilya got into Priority Group 3.

And correct. If Ilya finished ahead by 1 point (or less) or by 50 or more points it doesn’t matter. Nationals go by placements. Not points.

 

[ice coverage]

Final criteria (tiebreaker) is comparison of 2020 and 2021 US Nationals.

Jason 2021 US Nationals - 3rd Ilya WD

2022 US Nationals. Jason 4th. Ilya 2nd. Advantage Jason

How in the world would you give this to Jason when his placement dropped and both results were below Ilya's 2022? Some of you are really stretching the truth to make it seem like the USFSA had no choice but to pick him. No regard for the actual placement at Nationals (i.e. you would argue 1st vs 5th should be treated the same as 3rd vs 4th to give the leading skater a checkmark there), or the actual scores earned at the event.

What??? I do not see how Jason has an advantage regarding 2022 and 2021 Nats results.

moonvine, you're the one who keeps citing the criteria -- and yet you failed to mention:

"Placements at the 2022 Toyota U.S. Figure Skating Championships will have priority over placements at the 2021 Toyota U.S. Figure Skating Championships."​

Also, the criteria recognize 2022 Nats as one of the three most important events (along with 2021 Worlds and 2021 GPF).

"Scores at the 2021 ISU World Figure Skating Championships, 2021 Grand Prix Final and the 2022 Toyota U.S. Figure Skating Championships (within the top four priority groups) to further identify competitiveness at the three most important events and at the most important time of the year, immediately preceding the 2022 Olympic Winter Games."​

The big picture is that USFS selected Jason for the Olympic team.
And I of course am well aware that there was a lot more to the criteria than comparison of Nats results.

But for crying out loud, according to the criteria, Ilia would not have been at a disadvantage in the realm of Nats results.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Good gravy. I’m not “interpreting” it. If Ilya had won he would be in Priority Group 3. If hr had come in 3rd - still Priority Group 3.

Nathan was in priority Group 1. Vincent was in Priority Group 2. By the time US Nationals happened, there was no way for any other US man to get info Priority Group 1 or 2. Jason was in Priority Group 3. By virtue of placing 2nd, Ilya got into Priority Group 3.

And correct. If Ilya finished ahead by 1 point (or less) or by 50 or more points it doesn’t matter. Nationals go by placements. Not points.

Clearly Nathan and Vincent were in a higher priority group. No one is arguing Ilya should have replaced Nathan so I'm not sure why you even bring him up.

 

[rollerblade]

By the way, Can I ask when was the criteria advertised?

August 18, 2020. Article was amended July 20, 2021 (probably due to all the cancellation of events).

https://www.usfigureskating.org/sites/default/files/media-files/2022%20Winter%20Olympic%20Games%20Selection%20Procedures%20FINAL.pdf

 

[moonvine]

What??? I do not see how Jason has an advantage regarding 2022 and 2021 Nats results.

moonvine, you're the one who keeps citing the criteria -- and yet you failed to mention:

"Placements at the 2022 Toyota U.S. Figure Skating Championships will have priority over placements at the 2021 Toyota U.S. Figure Skating Championships."​

Also, the criteria recognize 2022 Nats as one of the three most important events (along with 2021 Worlds and 2021 GPF).

"Scores at the 2021 ISU World Figure Skating Championships, 2021 Grand Prix Final and the 2022 Toyota U.S. Figure Skating Championships (within the top four priority groups) to further identify competitiveness at the three most important events and at the most important time of the year, immediately preceding the 2022 Olympic Winter Games."​

The big picture is that USFS selected Jason for the Olympic team.
And I of course am well aware that there was a lot more to the criteria than comparison of Nats results.

But for crying out loud, according to the criteria, Ilia would not have been at a disadvantage in the realm of Nats results.

I was delving into the sorting criteria and the last one is “comparison of 2021 US Nats to 2022 US Nats” and thinking since Ilya had no 2021 US Nats placement he would be at a loss because he didn’t have anything to compare it to. I guess in their trying to think of everything they could possibly think of USFS didn’t think of a situation where a skater who WD from 2021 Nats would place in top 3 of 2022 Nats. Because I don’t know how one would compare a WD to any placement. 8th is a higher placement than WD.

 

[moonvine]

August 18, 2020. Article was amended July 20, 2021 (probably due to all the cancellation of events).

https://www.usfigureskating.org/sites/default/files/media-files/2022%20Winter%20Olympic%20Games%20Selection%20Procedures%20FINAL.pdf

Thanks. The first time I saw them posted anywhere was 9/9. Probably the athletes knew about them before we did.

 

[Mathman]

Actually, it invites the question, or forces the question upon one. (Pet peeve )

Anyway, bottom line, no one is going to bump an established star on the basis of one performance by an untested newcomer, however outstanding. Selection Committees don't work like that. If they just took the top point-getter at Nationals, there would be no need for a commeittee at all. We fans might be fine with that, but The Committee wouldn't be.

 

[readernick]

It's perfectly valid to say there was not and will never be another skater *like* Jason, but saying that no skaters will be *as good as* Jason... I can't agree

True in figure skating and in every other artistic and athletic field. I don't even like saying that any individual is the best at the moment, let alone the GOAT. My question was not meant in anyway to dispute this. I just honestly enjoy thinking about what different styles work for skaters and wanted to know if anyone else could think of a currently competing skater who could pull it off. Jeff Buttle is another skater who could bring his own unique style to this choreo. I hope more skaters experiment with different styles of movement. Green/ Parsons did so very successfully in ice dance this season.

 

[GGFan]

Just a quick note on any set of rules or decisions. It's usually difficult to get a set of rules complete right on the first shot. Often to deal with this people give themselves wiggle room (like the USFS) has here. But we also have to pay attention to their actions.

Since I've been watching figure skating I think things have changed. I've only been watching since the 80s but here is how I understand it. There are better historians on GS who will correct me.

1. Pre-2014: my understanding was that top 3 three at nationals would go to Olympics (if we had 3 spots of course). We still have to keep in mind: (a) the judges could still keep someone down or hold them up with figures or the second mark and (b) injury petitions (see Todd Eldredge in 1992 and Nancy in 1994).

-I think athletes during this period could generally assume that if they finished in the top 3 they were going.

2. 2014 and after: I might not be remembering correctly but this is the first time I really remember body of work coming into play with the Ashley and Mirai thing. For myself as a fan I was kind of shocked in that it was the first time I remembered them skipping over someone on the podium. They didn't just hold Mirai down--she finished 3rd and she was left off. Regardless of what the rules said at this point I knew that there was a new precedent. However, I still thought it would be one used for exceptional cases.

-After 2014 just by precedent athletes could no longer expect that their placement at Nationals was the be all end all. However, I still thought they assumed that if they placed in the top 2 they were fine.

3. 2018-Present: This is where body of work took over. If you look back to my posts after that Nationals I was absolutely shocked and gutted for Ross Miner. Never in my mind did I understand that a silver place finisher was in danger. This was the start of a new era where your average results could put you on the team. Mind you, I loved Adam but he wasn't a world or Olympic medalist. One thing for you to pull someone for Michelle Kwan, but this wasn't in the same league.

--After 2018 just by precedent (and by rule) no skater could realistically come into Nationals thinking that their placement made you safe. Even a second place finisher knew in advance they could be pulled in favor or someone else.

All of that to say, that everyone has been on notice about the system. There is no unfairness to anyone because the criteria was followed. The decision was also ethical. All of the arguments should really be about whether the decision was wise, regrettable, good strategically, etc.

 

[bekalc]

Actually, it invites the question, or forces the question upon one. (Pet peeve )

Anyway, bottom line, no one is going to bump an established star on the basis of one performance by an untested newcomer, however outstanding. Selection Committees don't work like that. If they just took the top point-getter at Nationals, there would be no need for a commeittee at all. We fans might be fine with that, but The Committee wouldn't be.

I actually disagree here. I think plenty of sports and teams would go for the newcomer especially if the established star never brought in a major title or medal. And wasn’t in the hunt for one.

The kid landed 6 quads.

Years ago Tom Brady was a rookie and replaced a really good quarterback. Why did Boston do that cuz it was Tom Brady. There were complaints had Mehs from the fans until well…

The Russians won the female gymnastics team. They even beat a US team in prelims with Simone. Two years ago they were eight points back.

Why did they win. Because they had two newly arrived talented juniors. They announced their team early on.


A skater who places 7-9 at worlds and cannot jump with the best versus a new Senior who can land 4 quads in a free. It’s not difficult to see the ability difference. I mean it’s silliness.

 

[Mathman]

One thing that stands out to me is that Jason finished fourth instead of third by 38 hundredth of a point. What would the discussion be if Jason had grabbed an extra half point, or if Vincent had been dinged a tad harder for his errors. Would we be saying, about Vincent, that one pewrformanc e he's an Olympic medal candidate and the next he's a choker, so we should send the reliable (?) and brilliant Maninin instead of Chou?

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Anyway, bottom line, no one is going to bump an established star on the basis of one performance by an untested newcomer, however outstanding.

Well, it's not just "one performance"; he was the top qualifier to the JGPF and won every segment of the four he skated in the series.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

One thing that stands out to me is that Jason finished fourth instead of third by 38 hundredth of a point. What would the discussion be if Jason had grabbed an extra half point, or if Vincent had been dinged a tad harder for his errors. Wopuld we be saying, about Vincent, that one pewrformanc e he's an Olympic medal candidate and the next he's a choker, so we should to send the reliable (?) and brilliant Maninin instead of Chou?

Geez, you guys keep wanting to throw Nathan and Vincent in these hypotheticals. They are in different groups so it doesn't matter. Jason and Ilya are in the same group, and the question is which of the two should have been selected.

 

[moonvine]

I actually disagree here. I think plenty of sports and teams would go for the newcomer especially if the established star never brought in a major title or medal. And wasn’t in the hunt for one.

The kid landed 6 quads.

Years ago Tom Brady was a rookie and replaced a really good quarterback. Why did Boston do that cuz it was Tom Brady. There were complaints had Mehs from the fans until well…

The Russians won the female gymnastics team. They even beat a US team in prelims with Simone. Two years ago they were eight points back.

Why did they win. Because they had two newly arrived talented juniors. They announced their team early on.


A skater who places 7-9 at worlds and cannot jump with the best versus a new Senior who can land 4 quads in a free. It’s not difficult to see the ability difference. I mean it’s silliness.

I am no expert on football. But I follow gymnastics very closely. It’s interesting you mentioned gymnastics, because their selection criteria aren’t transparent at all. They have a National championship (which is not meaningless because it determines the National Champion as well as who is a member of the National Team. Members of the National Team are invited to a training camp. Based on those results athletes are invited to the Olympic trials. The winner of the Olympic Trials is on the Olympic Team. The others are selected by committee without published criteria.

For the past Olympics, it was stated they would NOT go by placements. They ended up going by placements anyway (in what is known in gymnastics as the “we have Simone so we can do what we want” decision).
And we ended up with a weaker team because of it.

So it’s a far cry from “the Russians won because they had two newly arrived talented juniors.” They had two newly arrived talented juniors AND we had a weak team because Simone.

 

[bekalc]

One thing that stands out to me is that Jason finished fourth instead of third by 38 hundredth of a point. What would the discussion be if Jason had grabbed an extra half point, or if Vincent had been dinged a tad harder for his errors. Would we be saying, about Vincent, that one pewrformanc e he's an Olympic medal candidate and the next he's a choker, so we should send the reliable (?) and brilliant Maninin instead of Chou?

I don’t have a problem with Vincent over Ilia. And Vincent over Jason even if he was fourth.

He is not my favorite skater ever but he has some very strong skates early this season not just once. He also does have a world medal.

This is the Olympics go big or go broke. With him you have a shot at a medal in the men’s event. Brown you don’t.

 

[bekalc]

I am no expert on football. But I follow gymnastics very closely. It’s interesting you mentioned gymnastics, because their selection criteria aren’t transparent at all. They have a National championship (which is not meaningless because it determines the National Champion as well as who is a member of the National Team. Members of the National Team are invited to a training camp. Based on those results athletes are invited to the Olympic trials. The winner of the Olympic Trials is on the Olympic Team. The others are selected by committee without published criteria.

For the past Olympics, it was stated they would NOT go by placements. They ended up going by placements anyway (in what is known in gymnastics as the “we have Simone so we can do what we want” decision).
And we ended up with a weaker team because of it.

So it’s a far cry from “the Russians won because they had two newly arrived talented juniors.” They had two newly arrived talented juniors AND we had a weak team because Simone.

I don’t think think the team selection would have mattered the US didn’t have two girls who could make up the bars difference: yeah the we have Simone was idiocy.

The point I was making was the Russians maximized their chances by welcoming young talent not putting hurdler up.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Well, I watch other skaters for 3 years, and I see some of them making improvements, a lot of them in the areas where Brown excels. However Brown during that time failed to gain a single jump and didn’t visibly improve on anything. His jumping this season may even got worse, and he started to l make mistakes on spins. Unless he was always making mistakes on spins. So, I can see what @CanadianSkaterGuy is saying, maybe he is not training the volume he needs? Or he hit the limit of his abilities and he is backsliding?

Yeah I noticed his Flying sit in his SP he’s had some issues this season (slow, travelling). Not all judges have flagged it but it’s a rather weak element for him which is weird considering he’s typically one of the best spinners in the world.

 

[moonvine]

One thing that stands out to me is that Jason finished fourth instead of third by 38 hundredth of a point. What would the discussion be if Jason had grabbed an extra half point, or if Vincent had been dinged a tad harder for his errors. Would we be saying, about Vincent, that one pewrformanc e he's an Olympic medal candidate and the next he's a choker, so we should send the reliable (?) and brilliant Maninin instead of Chou?

No. Vincent was in Priority Group 2. He had to be in the top 5 to retain that. So he could have been 4th or 5th and still been in Priority Group 2. Now if he had finished 6th, that would have been an issue.