US Team: 4CCs and Worlds (updated)

[skylark]

With Sk/K inclusion to both worlds and 4ccs one wonders if Gracie should have not competed at all this year and then sought a spot to worlds?

Gracie didn't have abdominal surgery in August or September. If she'd done as her coach suggested: sat out the GP season, and then come roaring back at Nationals, we'd be having a different conversation. But if she'd sat out the GP season and nationals, with no reason given than she was "in a funk," to use Gracie's words? I don't know how a bye to worlds could be justified in that hypothetical.

As we all know it doesn't much to say you need time off for work because of "stress". Maybe Kavaguti and Smirnov if Russia had similar rules shouldn't have skated so soon after injury and rested and maybe be given a shot to go to Euros and or worlds. I know there are no guarantees. i understand it was a legit injury of course but I am not sure this is a very fair process.

Are you talking about Scimeca, or Kavaguti? That's a confusing paragraph.

Not sending CT because they probably can't go to Olympics seems anti American almost.

Anti-American? How do you figure that?

Also, the word "probably" is a bit problematic. Mervin doesn't live in the US. It took an act of Congress to get Tanith Belbin citizenship in Dec. 2005 so she could go to '06 olympics, but she'd already lived in Michigan for 5 years at that time, or was it 7 years.

I don't think SB will compete; Canada could lose its current three spots. The odds are D and R won't be first. They will need someone in 8th or so. Not sending Mirai for example this year or in 2014 or CT this year or Zhou can lead to some times huge unfairness or disparities or "bad luck situations. Case in point. Mirai not only didn't go to the 2014 olympics but watched her replacement get an olympic bronze not to mention money and fame.

Mirai had all the opportunities she needed to perform well in 2013 (and 2016): 2 GP assignments. She got a bronze medal and an 8th place at them in 2013; Ashley in fall 2013 won gold at TEB, silver at SA, and bronze at GPF. Ashley was 5th at 2013 Worlds; Mirai didn't qualify to go.

It's a misnomer to call Ashley her "replacement," as Mirai was never named to the Olympic or World team in 2014.

 

[skylark]

Is this why Ashley never does 4CC's? Or some skaters drop out of so many events at the end /beginning of next season? There is no time anymore for a vaca or a break. It is a different World for sure.

Ashley has said she found that competing at 4CC interrupted her training for Worlds. Last year, Terry Gannon asked Johnny Weir what his opinion was. Johnny emphatically agreed that 4cc is awkward timing; there's a necessary coming down time after Nationals, then 4cc is usually in Asia, which means losing another week of training, including travel time, and jet lag to boot. However, most of our athletes take the chance to go to 4CC. Ashley never makes excuses about it; she just does what is best for her; and she declines within a day or so, which gives the first alternate maximum time to prepare.

She also said that as she got older, she found it necessary to take a break or vacation after Christmas. Of course, she's only talking about a few days. The fact that she calls that a vacation shows that other athletes don't necessarily even take that. So yes, I think it's hard for figure skaters or any athletes now to take official rest time. Ekaterina Gordeeva talked about that some in her book: she said in the former USSR when she and Sergei were coming up, the skaters weren't even allowed on the ice during the summers. They went to summer camp and did many other physical activities, but they took that break from skating. With the skyrocketing of injuries we have now, I wonder if they weren't onto something. Maybe in Russia they still are.

 

[skatemouse]

Ashley has said she found that competing at 4CC interrupted her training for Worlds. Last year, Terry Gannon asked Johnny Weir what his opinion was. Johnny emphatically agreed that 4cc is awkward timing; there's a necessary coming down time after Nationals, then 4cc is usually in Asia, which means losing another week of training, including travel time, and jet lag to boot. However, most of our athletes take the chance to go to 4CC. Ashley never makes excuses about it; she just does what is best for her; and she declines within a day or so, which gives the first alternate maximum time to prepare.

I agree that the timing of 4CC's just makes no sense at all. For any serious athlete trying to get to Worlds to be a threat.

 

[desertskates]

Also agreeing that 4CC is a an awkwardly timed competition. I really think it depends on the individual, if that persons tends to suffer from jetlag, sleeps well in hotels and can deal with limited practice time at the competition site. It's fun event to watch, and a fantastic opportunity for skaters who are not promised a spot at Worlds, for sure! But I can easily see why a skater like Ashley, who is trying to repeat as a medalist, would prefer to stay at home an keep her routine with her eyes on the bigger prize.

 

[Skater Boy]

It is what it is. Next year is the year the competition gets real low as many skip it for the olympics prep.

I am curious why team is better overall between the Americans and Canadians for 4CCs. In the past I would say the US but now I am not so sure.

 

[NoNameFace]

After watching the Euros ladies LP, I think we're in deep, deep danger of losing the third spot at the Olympics. The way I see it...

Skaters who will likely beat all Americans: Evgenia, Satoko, Anna, Carolina
Skaters who will likely beat all but Ashley (but could also beat Ashley): Maria/Elena (whoever the third Russian is), Kaetlyn
Skaters who could beat Karen and Mariah: Gabby, the two JPN women, Elizabet

I don't see how Ashley gets into that top 4, so if she's 5th, Karen or Mariah have to beat four of the above women.

yes, that pretty much sums it up, I think that as much as Ashley can hold herself up based not only by her technique, but also on her presentation and experience, Mariah and Karen have to skate clean and lights out of their programs to stay in contention and to give themselves as much chance as they can. Being solid is always a good card to have under your belt and being consistently solid is a gem. There go also potential mishaps from others, because ice is slippery, no big discovery in that.

Saying that, I hope that all US women will do well, because all represents something different for me, something interesting is in each of them. Especially wishing well to Mariah for her Worlds debut!

 

[FlattFan]

It's hard to deny Karen's placement if she goes clean. Her jumps are awesome. Spins are also first rate. Steps are ok. The packaging could be better, but her skating skills are strong enough to carry her. I think a clean SP will earn her 32+ for PCS, and a clean LP will earn 66+ PCS. She's America #1 girl now.

Could get 70+ in the SP, and close to 140 in the LP. Competitive enough to be in the top 6.
Ashley will have to claw her way into the top 6 somehow.

I don't think a clean Mariah can place well, though. She's still US #3, she won't have the PCS to be competitive this year, which is unusually strong pre-Olympics.

For all we know, Carolina could fall apart. Anna could have 4 falls. Maria could have 5 URs. US ladies have a small chance to keep 3 spots.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

It's hard to deny Karen's placement if she goes clean. Her jumps are awesome. Spins are also first rate. Steps are ok. The packaging could be better, but her skating skills are strong enough to carry her. I think a clean SP will earn her 32+ for PCS, and a clean LP will earn 66+ PCS. She's America #1 girl now.

I think that's extremely optimistic, as she will skate quite early in the SP. Her international personal best is ~179, so I'm not sure how she's our #1 girl. Because she skated one event without falling?

 

[amc987]

It's hard to deny Karen's placement if she goes clean. Her jumps are awesome. Spins are also first rate. Steps are ok. The packaging could be better, but her skating skills are strong enough to carry her. I think a clean SP will earn her 32+ for PCS, and a clean LP will earn 66+ PCS. She's America #1 girl now.

Could get 70+ in the SP, and close to 140 in the LP. Competitive enough to be in the top 6.
Ashley will have to claw her way into the top 6 somehow.

I don't think a clean Mariah can place well, though. She's still US #3, she won't have the PCS to be competitive this year, which is unusually strong pre-Olympics.

For all we know, Carolina could fall apart. Anna could have 4 falls. Maria could have 5 URs. US ladies have a small chance to keep 3 spots.

Karen won Nationals, but I don't think she's going to be marked as America's #1 right off the bat. I imagine that Karen will get a bit of a PCS bump, but Ashley is the reigning World silver medalist and our #1 skater internationally. I think Ashley's marks will be significantly higher than Karen's as long as Ashley goes clean.

 

[Jammers]

Gracie really picked the worst season to have a terrible year. Whether she won a medal or not you could usually expect Gold to finish at least in the top 5 along with Ashley but i don't see Mariah near the top 8 and Chen could get hit with multiple UR's since this won't be US judges who like to turn the other way when it comes to underotated jumps. I will be very surprised that the US Ladies can keep that 3rd spot.

 

[Skater Boy]

Bump up the jam- jammers. Have some faith. Chen if she is on could maybe even medal though I still think Ashley is the hope for the Americans. Chen is hard to read - will she be judged like miyhara or will she be seen as too juniorish, lacking amplitude and dinged for ur's. I just don't know what the judges will do plus who knows how she will deal with the pressure of being the national champ.

 

[curious]

Unknown skaters like Karen Chen and the third American girl skating clean in Europe matters very little. Even Ashley Wagner will have a hard time making top five at worlds with her bad results this season. Nathan Chen has become America's real only hope for a medal he can even win if javi,yuzuru and chan do not step up and deliver.

 

[sarama]

I'm starting to believe USFSA should have waited to choose which ladies send to worlds. Ashley is of course a guarantee, but Karen and Mariah are very unreliable (although they are gorgeous skaters). I would have waited until after 4CC and taken Mirai in consideration as well. And maybe even monitor Gracie, for her own sake is better if she takes some time off, but to keep the three spots she could be essential: let's say Ashley ends up sixth and Karen (or Mariah or Mirai) tenth, which is a likely scenario, then if Gracie does well enough to be at least seventh, the three spots are safe if she bombs the other two will be enough for the two spots. It would be a desperate measure, but I feel like this is a desperate time for US ladies.

 

[Skater Boy]

Remember though Russia can only send 3 skaters and Maria or Anna are bound to crack. Ashley is a veteran and a fierce competitor. Her season isn't that bad. And she goes in still as the top American even though second at nationals. Mariah or karen could surprise. And remember the other skaters have to show up and compete well. For Canada to throw a wrench in things for the USA Kaetlyn would have to skate two strong programs which she hasn't done all season and Gabby would have to do her best. That might give them a chance for 3 skaters and undoubtedly cause some problems for the US girls to retain three spots.

The US has real medal threats at worlds in all categories but pairs really.

 

[Li'Kitsu]

I'm starting to believe USFSA should have waited to choose which ladies send to worlds. Ashley is of course a guarantee, but Karen and Mariah are very unreliable (although they are gorgeous skaters). I would have waited until after 4CC and taken Mirai in consideration as well. And maybe even monitor Gracie, for her own sake is better if she takes some time off, but to keep the three spots she could be essential: let's say Ashley ends up sixth and Karen (or Mariah or Mirai) tenth, which is a likely scenario, then if Gracie does well enough to be at least seventh, the three spots are safe if she bombs the other two will be enough for the two spots. It would be a desperate measure, but I feel like this is a desperate time for US ladies.

While I get why people want their country to have 3 spots and get as many of their own skaters a chance to compete at the big stage as possible, IMO it sometimes really gets too much. Gracie doesn't deserve the world team this year because of how she skated - no political or 'strategical' plans should change that. If the American ladies don't manage to keep 3 spots, well, then maybe they don't deserve them. It's not as if any country was entitled to 3 spots.

 

[karne]

I'm starting to believe USFSA should have waited to choose which ladies send to worlds. Ashley is of course a guarantee, but Karen and Mariah are very unreliable (although they are gorgeous skaters). I would have waited until after 4CC and taken Mirai in consideration as well.

Because of course Mirai is super reliable.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Remember though Russia can only send 3 skaters and Maria or Anna are bound to crack. Ashley is a veteran and a fierce competitor. Her season isn't that bad. And she goes in still as the top American even though second at nationals. Mariah or karen could surprise. And remember the other skaters have to show up and compete well. For Canada to throw a wrench in things for the USA Kaetlyn would have to skate two strong programs which she hasn't done all season and Gabby would have to do her best.

You think all these skaters have to be perfect to beat Karen and Mariah? Maria beat Mariah's career best 4 times this season, and Karen's every time. The same is true for Anna. Kaetlyn beat Mariah's career best 3 times, and Karen's every time. This is comparing the Americans' best ever scores with every event the others skated.

 

[SnowWhite]

Remember though Russia can only send 3 skaters and Maria or Anna are bound to crack. Ashley is a veteran and a fierce competitor. Her season isn't that bad. And she goes in still as the top American even though second at nationals. Mariah or karen could surprise. And remember the other skaters have to show up and compete well. For Canada to throw a wrench in things for the USA Kaetlyn would have to skate two strong programs which she hasn't done all season and Gabby would have to do her best. That might give them a chance for 3 skaters and undoubtedly cause some problems for the US girls to retain three spots.

The US has real medal threats at worlds in all categories but pairs really.

I don't actually think Kaetlyn needs two clean programs to beat Ashley, considering this season she has scored 206.45 at SC, 196 at CoC and 212.45 at GPF without a clean long. Ashley has 196.44 at SA and 181.38 at CoC. I'm not saying that Ashley can't beat Kaetlyn, but clearly Kaetlyn can beat her without both programs being clean. And Gabby has a higher SB than the other two and that was from TdF where she had a bad free. Again doesn't mean she will beat both of them, but she obviously can without being perfect.

 

[Mathman]

I am willing to give Karen Chen a chance. Never mind personal bests and scores achieved at other events. Karen will probably lose to Medvedeva, Pogoriliyah, Miahara, Kostner and Osmond. She has a chance against Russian #3, Japan #2 and #3, Daleman and Wagner. I am looking for a top ten placement for Karen at Worlds.

 

[mrrice]

I am willing to give Karen Chen a chance. Never mind personal bests and scores achieved at other events. Karen will probably lose to Medvedeva, Pogoriliyah, Miahara, Kostner and Osmond. She has a chance against Russian #3, Japan #2 and #3, Daleman and Wagner. I am looking for a top ten placement for Karen at Worlds.

I agree....For Karen, a top 10 finish would be spectacular. I fully expect The Diva part of Miss Wagner to keep herself at home. She is on the World Team and right now and, IMO, that should be her focus. If either Karen or Mariah are able to make the final flight. It would a pleasant, and very big surprise. That's not a dig to our young ladies. It's praise for the skill of the Ladies above them. Med, Rad, Pogo, Katelyn, Kostner, Miahara, and hopefully Mao, will all skate well which will push our ladies into the second flight.

IMO, It is Worlds that our skaters should be focusing on and I hope they don't over-train and peak 1 competition too soon. I hope that made sense. Internationally, Ashley is still our biggest star and best hope for a podium finish. I hope I'm wrong but, unless Karen is flawless, I don't think the international judges are going to do her any favors.