- Joined
- Dec 29, 2011
pangtongfan said:I must say I think the predictions for Chan's chances are extremely generous at this point. I predict there will be some backlash in his scores from the huge uproar over Worlds, and he is already past his prime and declining massively technically.
The mens discipline is definitly the hardest to predict. I don't think Chan will win in Sochi, but I can see why people would settle for him (for now, at least) - he gets the job done. It might not be pretty, but the points are there. And no other man has really stepped it up to the point where he would be a clear pick - although I think Fernandez and Hanyu clearly showed the potential to beat Patrick. Both of them aren't consistent, but they're still better than Chan in that regard.
For the backlash regarding his scores - the last season showed us pretty clearly that he already got some. Back in 2012 a perfect Takahashi scored 85+ in PCS compared to Chans 90+. Now this year Ten got 87+, just about two points below Chan. I don't think there's any doubt that 2012 Takahashi is better than 2013 Ten in every single PCS category, but Ten was still scored closer to Chan this year. The jugdes were clearly ready to give the title to someone else - saying, in 2013 with the exact same performances, I think Takahashi might have won (the LP definitly, at least). Adding the fact that the Olympics are a place much worse for scandals than WCs, I'd imagine Chan will get hampered for his mistakes pretty badly (and I can't really see him going clean). It's really just up to Fernandez and Hanyu to take the chance.
CanadianSkaterGuy said:I also don't think it's fair to say he's past his prime, when you could say the same for Takahashi/Plushenko/Joubert, etc. If anyone is past his prime, it's Takahashi...
And when exactly was Takahashis prime? The poor man was hit hard with an injury that was thought to be career ending at first. I don't think he ever really reached something like a peak - he always had his ups and downs. After the 2011 WC, people said Takahashi was done and that he needed to retire already. Then he came back in 2012 to nearly become world champ again (and no matter if you think Chan deserved his title or not, Takahashis 2012 performances were worthy of a gold medal, generally speaking). This last season wasn't his best, but I'm suprised so many people are pretty much writing him off. He came back two times already, he can manage a 3rd one (and he still won the GPF this season...). He's still a medal favorite and an OGM contender for me - moreso than Ten, for example.
And for Chan declining: 2011 Chan >> 2012 Chan >> 2013 Chan. That's not exactly an upward trajectory... and then factor in that he doesn't have a technical coach anymore.