Wakaba Higuchi

[Shayuki]

Also, looking at the score table, is Wakaba's score (24) likely to get her to GPF? I'm getting worried.

It's tough to say so early.

Medvedeva is a lock, so that's one spot. Zagitova and Osmond are very likely going to be top 3 in France, so that's 2 more spots gone. Sotskova was second and is in France too. She will most likely lose to Zagitova and Osmond, so Higuchi should win the tie breaker there because of Sotskova's weak score in her last competition.

In Japan, if Kostner is top 3 she is likely to beat Higuchi with the tie breaker(Has 215+ so she only needs around 204 points total there). The most relevant skaters there in addition to Kostner and Medvedeva would be Miyahara and Tsurskaya. In case Kostner is top 3, that's 4 total spots gone with only 2 left.

Tsurskaya and Miyahara will share USA as well. In addition to them, there's little real competition. Maybe Ashley, which means that these two are most likely #1 and #2 in some order. What this also means is that one of them is very likely to win, and also quite likely to hence qualify(That same skater would need only 4th place in Japan). Depending on how the placements align in Japan GP, it also is very possible both of them qualify, leaving Higuchi out.

In any case, we can relatively safely assume one of these two will qualify ahead of Higuchi, leaving only 1 spot open. Sotskova would need to place top 2 in France(Relatively unlikely), Wagner would need to win USA(Unlikely).

I think that the most likely scenario where she fails to qualify for the GPF is if one of Tsurskaya or Miyahara places 4th in Japan and wins in USA, while the other places 3rd in Japan and second in USA, beating Higuchi in tie breaker.

But overall, I'd say that that's a very specific scenario that also requires 2 specific skaters swapping positions between two competitions in that manner. Therefore, her chances are in my opinion looking good. After Japan we'll know a lot more.

 

[yyyskate]

Thank for every one's explanation here, I'm still confused not particular good at this type of thing All I can do now is pray for Wakababy

Some feedback from Chinese figure skating community and Chinese fans who has went to watch COC live.

some heads up
1, Lots of Chinese fans have went to watch COC this year due to its fabulous lineup.
2, Wakaba is not the most popular lady skate in China, excluding local Chinese skaters, I think the most popular lady skater of the event is Marin (like in everyplace else). Even Mai has more fans than Wakaba due to her great outing in previous COC.
But the feedback after this COC, especially fans who watched the skating live, unanimously think that Wakaba should got the HIGHEST PCS of the night.
Chinese fans are courteous towards Zagi, but they still believe Wakaba should have the heighest PCS, and think the fact that Zagi's PCS is the highest of the night is a joke, especially with the direct comparison with Wakaba right after her.

EDIT: Russian skaters are loved in China due to both countries' friendly collaboration in term of figure skating. So it is not an anti-russian thing.

 

[YesWay]

ioanna posted a nice and well-reasoned analysis of the chances of Olympic selection for Japan's top ladies: HERE

"Basically Wakaba is in a situation where she doesn't need to win Nationals to go to the Olympics. Mai and Satoko need to win."

 

[OS]

Thank for every one's explanation here, I'm still confused not particular good at this type of thing All I can do now is pray for Wakababy

Some feedback from Chinese figure skating community and Chinese fans who has went to watch COC live.

some heads up
1, Lots of Chinese fans have went to watch COC this year due to its fabulous lineup.
2, Wakaba is not the most popular lady skate in China, excluding local Chinese skaters, I think the most popular lady skater of the event is Marin (like in everyplace else). Even Mai has more fans than Wakaba due to her great outing in previous COC.
But the feedback after this COC, especially fans who watched the skating live, unanimously think that Wakaba should got the HIGHEST PCS of the night.
Chinese fans are courteous towards Zagi, but they still believe Wakaba should have the heighest PCS, and think that Zagi's PCS is the highest of the night is a joke, especially with the direct comparison with Wakaba right after her.

Good to know the wisdom of masses, who don't even visit GS. The ongoing whitewash of these Sochi PCS games is disgusting. Alina in her sr, debut GP FS PCS is only 1 point away from Mao's Sochi FS with a Junior program that has clearly artistic flaws. Sound familiar? Not only through active inflation, but actively deflate rivals scores to remove competition, not just Wakaba but everyone else, even at the expense of Radionova and Tuk.

They keep trying to depress Wakaba as she is one is one of the threats especially with a potential 3A on the horizon. I think it is completely outrageous, and wish Wakaba not feel disheartened or discouraged, comeback stronger and keep on fighting. People are not blind and can judge for themselves.

I am so happy for Wakaba staying focused and strong. I want her kick butt at GPF!!

 

[solar]

Thanks everyone who did the GPF math! Qualification math always makes my head spin so reading everyone's detailed explanations are super helpful!

 

[Shayuki]

Thank for every one's explanation here, I'm still confused not particular good at this type of thing All I can do now is pray for Wakababy

I guess it was a bit longwinded, huh? Sorry, bad habit to go too in depth. Well, the short version:

Almost certain: Medvedeva, Zagitova, Osmond

3 spots between(And what they need to beat Higuchi):
Higuchi(24p)
Kostner: Probably requires top 3 in Japan
Sotskova: Probably requires top 2 in France(UNLIKELY)
Wagner: Requires gold in USA(UNLIKELY)
Miyahara: Requires at least 3rd and 2nd place(Japan, USA) with higher total score than Higuchi
Tsurskaya: Requires at least 3rd and 2nd place (Japan, USA) with higher total score than Higuchi

Longer shot:

Yuna Shiraiwa: Requires at least 3rd and 2nd place(Japan, France) with higher total score than Higuchi

 

[solar]

They keep trying to depress Wakaba as she is one is one of the threats especially with a potential 3A on the horizon. I think it is completely outrageous, and wish Wakaba not feel disheartened or discouraged, comeback stronger and keep on fighting. People are not blind and can judge for themselves.

It's too bad that she's not planning on performing it this season (based on an interview from a few weeks ago). 3A or not, I still think her improved performances and choreography should be rewarded in higher PCS

 

[Miss Ice]

Good to know the wisdom of masses, who don't even visit GS. The ongoing whitewash of these Sochi PCS games is disgusting. Alina in her sr, debut GP FS PCS is only 1 point away from Mao's Sochi FS with a Junior program that has clearly artistic flaws. Sound familiar? Not only through active inflation, but actively deflate rivals scores to remove competition, not just Wakaba but everyone else, even at the expense of Radionova and Tuk.

They keep trying to depress Wakaba as she is one is one of the threats especially with a potential 3A on the horizon. I think it is completely outrageous, and wish Wakaba not feel disheartened or discouraged, comeback stronger and keep on fighting. People are not blind and can judge for themselves.

I am so happy for Wakaba staying focused and strong. I want her kick butt at GPF!!

Exactly what is going on. Radionova and Tuk weren't high Olympic contenders to begin with, so it's totally fine to sacrifice them. Politics is so horrible.

Anyway, back on topic: I truly also hope Wakaba makes it to GPF and skates a stellar LP/SP combo. Though seeing as these two programs were pretty much perfect (someone confirm this - or did she have a ! on the 3F in her SP?), it is almost crazy to think she can be "better", but just hoping the skating gods will bring justice to this catastrophic scoring atmosphere somehow.... Kick butt!

 

[Hannah555]

Wakaba is amazing this season and I truly believe that she will only improve. For me she's already number 1 contender for Oly team. Congratulations with silver and two great programs! Fingers crossed for GPF!

 

[mermaidfestavol3]

I can't stop watching Wakaba's FS. So gorgeous and the jumps are so huge, no technique issues. IMO she should have won CoC but I'm not a judge :/. Very impressed with her consistency this season so far.

 

[MedoLove]

Good Job , Wakababy <3 Amazing performance, so fresh, elegant , dramatic .

Her Lp is my favorite this season.I want to see her on the podium in the Final. And in the Olympic!

Go, Wakaba !

 

[dna5019]

Wakaba was awesome at this event. Two stellar performances. I hope to see her at the Olympics. Her programs are some of my favorites this season (and her FS, of all time!).

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

Wakababy is on the right path and the judges are giving her marks that I think will give her a chance to get on all the big podiums this year. That 3f in the SP is the difference between 1st and 2nd. At least the difference she had control over in China. I’d love to see a 3lo instead

Good stuff though this season. Keep it up!!

 

[Ender]

She will only get better from this. I hope so.

 

[Tulipstar]

Wakaba made a strong case for herself to be on Japan's Olympic team.

She might be the only one of them to make it to te GPF.

 

[Ender]

I am still having some heartbreak from CoC judging. But I do believe she can make it.

 

[xibsuarz]

I am so proud of Wakaba, she's had a great GP and she will very likely make the Final! And with a couple of great programs to show at home!
And although I also love Mai and Marin and the programs they have this season, beating them both at COC (and possibly making the GPF) gives her the upper hand in the bloodbath that will be Nationals. And judges seem to start rewarding her consistency too :yes:
Congrats Wakaba on these great results!

 

[Miss Ice]

Wakaba's COC gala: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HpHB0_EXtMk

I never get tired of it, it's soooo beautiful and light

 

[MaiKatze]

OS asked for the german commentary, I translated the FS here. I'm not a pro.

German Eurosport, Wakaba Higuchi, Free Skate, CoC

S(igi Heinrich): The most beautiful program so far, from Mai Mihara got 4 points less in PCS. 4 points less! Yes, I don't have to say much about Zagitova's program, the scores speak for themselves.

Now, it's time for Wakaba Higuchi, with Skyfall, very different, finally! A great program, we have seen it already, and here us two also say, just enjoy it. It is great!

I'm outing myself now, dear viewers. This is my absolute favourite program in this season from all the programs I've seen so far. The second one is also from a japanese skater, Sakamoto's Amelie, yes the two Japanese ladies sneaked into my heart already. My figure skating heart, naturally. Great!

H(endrik Schamberger): Well, I have to say all four japaneses ladies....

S: Yes....

H:...Mai Mihara as well, Marin Honda as well. It is awesome!

S: These are programs!

H: Yes.

S: It's great...it's simply...I'm smitten...honestly, I admit I am....

H: In comparison to Zagitova, who, I'll repeat it once more, got 68 points. THIS is totally different speed. This is, what the ISU wants! They call it balanced program. There is an arc of suspense, it starts with highlights, and holds that tension until the end. There are transitions where Zagitova doesn't have any time left to do them at the end.

S: And another thing that adds up with Wakaba Higuchi. She's incredibly expressive.

H: Yes, Yesterday she's been underscored, a borderline scandal, I'm curious if the judges close the box and add another thing like this.

S: She has to get higher PCS than Zagitova.

H: Over 70.

S: Over 70, yes, that's what I wanted to say too, over 70. But I fear Hendrik, you'll have to live through another heart attack.
Only just 16 years old, Wakaba Higuchi. And a great skater already.

H: She has to lead, without a doubt, with a healthy margin.

S: She should....

H: Should

S: We lose our faith somedays, in the judges, seriously. That's how it is. If she doesn't get 70 or less than 68 it is a scandal.

H:That cannot be true! People! 67! Well...I believe...I..think...I'll become a conspiracy theorist. That's.....it just cannot be true.

S: We know the scene....

H: 67!

They go on about this is a scandal, during all the other programs. And at least Hendrik Schamberger is usually much more subdued. They were really angry at this and it began in the short already, where they also believed that the japanese were screwed.

Original

S(igi Heinrich): Das bis dato schönste Programm von Mai Mihara hat 4 Punkte weniger in den Programmkomponenten erhalten. 4 Punkte weniger! Ja zum Programm muss ich jetzt nicht mehr viel sagen von Zagitova, die Punktzahlen sprechen für sich.

Jetzt aber zu Wakaba Higuchi, mit Skyfall, ganz anders, endlich mal! Ein tolles Programm, wir haben das ja schonmal gesehen auch hier sagen wir beide, genießen sie es. Es ist toll!

Ich oute mich jetzt liebe Zuschauer. Das ist mein absolutes Lieblingsprogramm in dieser Saison von all denen Programmen die ich bis jetzt gesehen habe. Das zweite, auch von einer Japanerin, Sakamoto die wunderbare Welt der Amelie, also die beiden Japanerinnen haben sich da schon in mein Herz geschlichen. In mein Eiskunstlaufherz wohlgemerkt natürlich. Toll!

H(endrik Schamberger): Also ich muss sagen alle vier Japanerinnen....

S: Ja....

H:...auch Mai Mihara, auch Marin Honda. Das ist Wahnsinn.

S: Das sind Programme!

H: Ja.

S: Das ist toll...das ist einfach...also ich da hin und weg...geb ich ganz ehrlich zu.

H: Im Vergleich zu Zagitova, die, ich will es jetzt noch mal sagen 68 Punkte gekriegt hat. Das ist ein ganz anderer Speed. Das ist wirklich das was die ISU eigentlich will, die nennt das "balanced program" Ja, da ist ein Spannungsbogen, da geht's am Anfang mit Highlights los, es geht bis zum Ende. Es gibt diese Verbindungsschritte, transitions für die Zagitova gar keine Zeit mehr hat am Ende.

S: Und was auch noch dazu kommt, bei Wakaba Higuchi, sie ist unglaublich ausdrucksstark.

H: Ja.
Also, sie wurde ja gestern ja schon an der Grenze zum skandalösen unterbewertet, bin gespannt ob die Preisrichter heut den Sack zumachen und ihr nochmal so ein Ding verpassen.

S: Also, sie müsste mehr an Programmkomponenten bekommen als Zagitova.

H: Über 70

S: Über 70, ja genau das wollte ich auch gerade sagen, über 70. Aber ich fürchte, Hendrik, dass du die zweite Herzattack jetzt überstehen musst.
16 Jahre alt ist sie erst, Wakaba Higuchi. Und jetzt schon eine große Läuferin.

H: Sie muss, ohne Zweifel, deutlich in Führung gehen. Deutlich.

S: Müsste...

H: Müsste.

S: Man verliert ja...ab und zu das Vertrauen in die Preisrichter, ehrlich. Das ist so. Und wenn es jetzt keine 70 Punkte gibt oder weniger als 68 ist es ein Skandal..

H: Das kann doch nicht wahr sein! Leute! 67! Also ich glaube...ich...ich glaube ich werde zum Verschwörungstheoretiker. Das gibt...Das kann doch nicht wahr sein.

S: Wir kennen die Szene.

H: 67!

 

[Miss Ice]

OS asked for the german commentary, I translated the FS here. I'm not a pro.


They go on about this is a scandal, during all the other programs. And at least Hendrik Schamberger is usually much more subdued. They were really angry at this and it began in the short already, where they also believed that the japanese were screwed.

Thanks to them for being honest and speaking out. We need more people like this. And thanks for the translation!