What will the 2011/2012 season bring us in ice dance?

[ImaginaryPogue]

I actually went ahead and scored the two dances in the end, and while I had W/P narrowly ahead of the Shibs in the SD, the FD was in the Shibs favour as was the final result. It was wierd to see actually happen, but I can't disagree with the judges on this one.

 

[colleen o'neill]

I can't quibble with the finish either..It was a great finish for both teams.

I lost a post last night to the gods of the ether, after wearing my fingers down to nubs..:scowl: I'd been musing on what to expect in the US, and boy, if it seems wild in Canada, it's even crazier over the border.

All I know for sure is that D/W should still be unassailable at home..after that, Omigod. I think we'll probably see a FD that returns to their strenghths ( like S&D, POTO )

A year and a half ago, I thought S/B should be a safe bet for US#2 for 2011. Now they're back on the ice, I'm eager to know how they're doing. Last year I was dying to see their American in Paris almost as much as V/M's Latin FD. I'm glad they're keeping it , it just seems the perfect vehicle for them ( and do I think they can deliver a good latin SD ? Oh, yeah.)So much will depend on Evan's full recovery.

In the meantime, the Shibs ( did I mention I love them as well ? )have come on like a brand new mini-steamroller with a custom paint job. Their programs were utterly perfect for them this year...will they find 2 that show them off to the same advantage next year ?
I think they could be OK with a more fun type latin dance..can they find a FD that will be as captivating as 2011's ?

I can't see why on earth C/Z would think of splitting or quitting. 9th in the world is no small feat, and I think their Cabaret FD will serve them well in the future , much as D/W's tango will pay off for them. Even if they can't do better than 4th at US Nat's that would be nothing to sneeze at in that field.Really looking forward to what they come up with as well.

Whichever team winds up being the lead team at 4CC instead of World's , with the depth the US and Canada are enjoying at the moment, everyone will be paying attention , and I don't think it will seem quite so much of a consolation prize as it has in some years . Couple that with the depth in singles in Japan and maybe the US.. 4cc may take on more of the lustre of Europeans for the next few years.

I do like both K/G-S and Can/ Lor. but ( from the few skates I've seen ) I don't think they can challenge the Canton teams just yet. Then , too, it will be interesting to see what Madison Hubbell and her new partner have in store.

 

[dorispulaski]

I understood that a number of commentators in Europe thought W/P were undermarked in the SD. The Shibs had a fabulous competition , but I wasn't sure they should have been ahead of W/P in the SD. I can't really be completely objective about the FD ,because I've adored the Shibs' FD all season, but haven't been keen on W/P's. (That said, W/P did skate it really well)...I certainly didn't agree with the judges about I/K's placement in the SD, I thought they were gifted..and maybe B/S were a bit, too..I really like B/S a lot, but I didn't think their 2nd SD was as good as their first..

Colleen, I've got to say I loved the costumes B&S had for their Chess SD (despite the fact that I hate the music from Chess). They seemed to really carry out the black/white theme of the game of chess very well.

http://visualrian.com/storage2/PreviewWM/9056/56/905656.jpg?1304103358

So in that sense, I liked the Chess SD better than Delilah. In Delilah I can never get past the singing murderer part of the music.

And I do think that one of the most interesting things to see will be what the Shibs bring for an FD. Cinema Paradiso and Smile were both wonderful, and their last year's Tango was horrid. And the second thing I want to see is C&Z's FD-again, Phantom and Caberet were great, but their Olympic year programs were dreadful. I hope they haven't split up...

 

[jcoates]

Just two points about all the talk on this thread that the Shibs medaling was a fluke. If we are going to view this discipline of skating as a sport, then it makes sense for people to start referring to it like one. First, not every sporting event is going to produce clear, undisputed winners or placements, even in non-judged sports. In fact, I would argue that more often than not, sports results are debatable among die-hard and casual fans alike. That does not mean a disputed result is not a legitimate one. Just as with an election, a result can be disputed and a recount conducted, but in the end a winner will be declared and the other side will not like it but must accept it. So I think it's somewhat unfair to use the word fluke, because it implies that the result was somehow a mistake and that the result was illegitimate.

Second, sure you can argue that their placement would not have happened if P/B had not fallen. But they did fall. The great thing about sport is that it happens on the field of play and not in our heads or hearts. No what if's or if only's are necessary. But to humor those who wish to indulge in this line of thinking, if P/B wanted to prevent such an event, then they should not have fallen. Specifically, they should have been more careful and aware of their foot placement entering their step sequence. Everyone else in the top ten managed that goal. That was, after all, part of their job. It's not like some evil skating fairy put a tiny banana on the ice for them to slip on or a judge mistakenly scored them incorrectly. Those would be flukes.

In sports you do your job well or you don't win/move up. If you fail to meet your objective, you lose. Simple. No fluking involved. If a tennis player wants to win, they must keep the ball in play longer than their opponent. A football, basketball, baseball, soccer or hockey team must score more points than the other team. Skaters should avoid falling as a general rule. P/B did not do this. They lost points for it by rule. Their final total was low enough and the Shibs were able to skate well enough to pass them. End of story. Next season the same basic rules apply: Have stronger content than your competitors and don't fall.

 

[janetfan]

Just two points about all the talk on this thread that the Shibs medaling was a fluke. If we are going to view this discipline of skating as a sport, then it makes sense for people to start referring to it like one. First, not every sporting event is going to produce clear, undisputed winners or placements, even in non-judged sports. In fact, I would argue that more often than not, sports results are debatable among die-hard and casual fans alike. That does not mean a disputed result is not a legitimate one. Just as with an election, a result can be disputed and a recount conducted, but in the end a winner will be declared and the other side will not like it but must accept it. So I think it's somewhat unfair to use the word fluke, because it implies that the result was somehow a mistake and that the result was illegitimate.

Second, sure you can argue that their placement would not have happened if P/B had not fallen. But they did fall. The great thing about sport is that it happens on the field of play and not in our heads or hearts. No what if's or if only's are necessary. But to humor those who wish to indulge in this line of thinking, if P/B wanted to prevent such an event, then they should not have fallen. Specifically, they should have been more careful and aware of their foot placement entering their step sequence. Everyone else in the top ten managed that goal. That was, after all, part of their job. It's not like some evil skating fairy put a tiny banana on the ice for them to slip on or a judge mistakenly scored them incorrectly. Those would be flukes.

In sports you do your job well or you don't win/move up. If you fail to meet your objective, you lose. Simple. No fluking involved. If a tennis player wants to win, they must keep the ball in play longer than their opponent. A football, basketball, baseball, soccer or hockey team must score more points than the other team. Skaters should avoid falling as a general rule. P/B did not do this. They lost points for it by rule. Their final total was low enough and the Shibs were able to skate well enough to pass them. End of story. Next season the same basic rules apply: Have stronger content than your competitors and don't fall.

Nice to read a non "Shib-paranoia" post.

For so many years Dance was about waiting your turn. Proponents of the new system say the CoP has changed that.

Now that we have actually seen a team "win before their turn" it is not going over very well.

It feels like the majority of Dance fans want less sport and prefer the way it used to be.
Under that system the Shibs might be up for a medal by 2016.

And V/M would never lose a single event until they retired.

 

[gmyers]

Good points were raised there. P/B did fall. They did have the talent level not to fall at worlds at that moment in their free dance at worlds. The Shibs PCS was high but not so much higher than other teams who did not medal. They had the PCS in the same number as B/S but with higher tech. P/B had a PCS of 51 but because of their not being able to control their skating better fell way behind in tech. So now it is up to the other teams to reach S/S level in technical ability and be consistent at it. To not choke at worlds.

 

[colleen o'neill]

jcoates..great post....The Shibs are excellent skaters and were ready to step up when the opportunity presented itself. That's not a fluke , that's preparedness.

I want to see the Evil Skating Fairy showering tiny bananas like pixie dust...

( I think she was at Skate Canada last year..but the Tansitions Fairy and the Footwork Fairy were there trying to counter her spell )

 

[NorthernDancers]

Just to clarify my comments about Shibs winning being a fluke. It's a fluke not because of anything with the Shibs, but with P/B. P/B are seasoned, good skaters, and I'm going to venture a guess that they rarely, if ever, fell in practise at the same spot. It's unusal, a fluke, that they fell. Shibs skated clean, and P/B fell. Shibs won 3rd. I'm not arguing that was wrong. But winning 3rd this year does not mean that Shibs are that much better than P/B generally, or we can expect this result every time. P/B had a fluke mistake, which is not likely to be repeated ever again. Without the fall, P/B would have won 3rd, since their overall quality of skating, difficulty, ability to interpret music is deeper and richer than the Shibs at this point. The Shibs had a wonderful vehicle in their FD to showcase their strengths and minimize what they still need to work on. It was a delightful program, and they are a great team with just tremendous potential. My prediction for them next season is 5th or 6th in the world.

 

[pangtongfan]

Who knows what will happen with the Shibutanis next year. They got majorly lucky this year (as far as the medal) but their rep will increase now with a World medal, and it might be alot harder for P/B to beat them in the future then it would have been this year. It might also become harder for the Russian teams now that the Shibutanis got to the World podium before them, on their home ice to boot. Will be a very interesting year coming up from so many respects. Another interesting question is if anyone can close the gap on the top 2. I dont think anyone can actually beat the top 2 next year, but if the rest dont start gaining ground and narrowing that gap now, it will be nearly impossible to catch them by Sochi.

 

[colleen o'neill]

NorthernDancers..Of course you're right from that perspective.. it was completely uncharacteristic of P/B, and not something one would expect to see from them again.

For the Shibs..I'm sure Z/S will be doing everything they can for them to keep them as close to the podium as possible , now that they've arrived. I don't think anyone could /should underestimate them from here on out. ( I know you aren't doing that, but others seem to be , at times )

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

I agree, ptf. Next year will be hugely interesting.

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

Just two points about all the talk on this thread that the Shibs medaling was a fluke. If we are going to view this discipline of skating as a sport, then it makes sense for people to start referring to it like one. First, not every sporting event is going to produce clear, undisputed winners or placements, even in non-judged sports. In fact, I would argue that more often than not, sports results are debatable among die-hard and casual fans alike. That does not mean a disputed result is not a legitimate one.

I think Virtue/Moir fluked into their World bronze medal. Does that render it illegimate?

 

[gmyers]

Being coached by Z/S I think makes it less likely for S/S to fall off the podium or do really bad. Of course B/A would fall off the podium one year after falling in CD but they were right back the next year. And then you had K/N that fell off the podium and would have placed lower but then S/S are a far superior team to K/N and possibly B/A.

 

[let`s talk]

Seems like everybody forgot about Khokhlova/Andreev. Meanwhile Zueva gave some great comments about them in Russian press, how individual and beautiful they are, how wonderful it is to work with them and blah-blah. She can't be serious. Seriously.

 

[blue_idealist]

I think the Shibs will probably be 4th or 5th in the world next year.. after winning the bronze I can't see them dropping down to 6th, I know K/N did after winning the bronze in 2008 but some people said that medal was kind of a gift because Domnina/Shabalin as Russian #1 weren't even at Worlds that year.. the Shibs will probably lose to Pechalat/Bourzat and maybe Faiella/Scali, although they could possibly still beat Faiella/Scali

 

[npa]

I think the Shibs will probably be 4th or 5th in the world next year.. after winning the bronze I can't see them dropping down to 6th, I know K/N did after winning the bronze in 2008 but some people said that medal was kind of a gift because Domnina/Shabalin as Russian #1 weren't even at Worlds that year.. the Shibs will probably lose to Pechalat/Bourzat and maybe Faiella/Scali, although they could possibly still beat Faiella/Scali

Who knows... When V-M won there first medal at WCh in 2008 a lot off poeple said - this will be there last medal at WCh
So all will depend from how Shibutanies will be ready, who will retier and will P-B have two clean skating at WCh.

 

[alithia]

V/M won their medal in 2008 by winning the FD,scoring a 105 something.D/S weren't there but still it was a big mark.It's a totally different situation.Of course their next Worlds weren't as good with the surgery and everything and they even lost the FD for the 3rd place to D/W.They came back to win the Olympics allthough they lost the GPF and this season they lost again at Worlds.So nobody really knows what is going to happen next year.I wouldn't consider P/B a lock for the 3rd place Nice or not.I did the mistake to consider them a lock this season but the Skate Gods are not kidding
The way I see it, ice dancing tends to become the most unpredictable discpline (irony?) and teams would consider themselves very lucky to be on the podium in Euros or Worlds.

 

[npa]

Yes, any team could be on podium. All depend how they all will be ready for next season.

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

So did Chait/Sakhnovski (3rd in 2002, 6th in 2003). Surprises tend not to repeat themselves.

 

[alithia]

Krylova/Fedorov in 1993 as well.Next season they even had to change their rock n roll FD and go back to their Cha Cha but they still didn't climb up the rankings.
Of course there is Klimova/Ponomarenko that went on to win more medals, but I'd consider them a very special case.