- Joined
- Jun 3, 2009
WHAT WILL THE 2011/2012 SEASON BRING US IN THE MEN?
It’s Chan’s World, we just live in it
His scoring capability is epic. He doesn’t merely beat records, he smashes them. He’s a COP machine (yes, I realize the negative connotations of that word, and don’t mean to shirk them). His improvement this season has been damn near historic. He went from a season of no quads to landing three per competition. His triple axel, while shaky, isn’t going away any time soon. He’ll enter every competition as the favourite. Keep in mind this is an athlete who dreams of dominating – like Kwan, like Federer, like Tiger Woods. And if he continues to improve at even half the rate we saw this year.... whoa. It’ll be cool to see if he thrives on being one of the chased skaters as much as one of the chasers.
So, what does he need to do maintain his momentum this upcoming season? What would you like to see him do overall? Is his goal of domination plausible?
The first question is easy: merely keep challenging himself (which he’s clearly doing with going for the quad lutz/flip attempts; as well as getting to work right away) and stay injury free. The second question and third questions... well, I’m more curious about others responses here.
America: An epic opera in three parts
i. Is Dornbush the new number one?
He’s entering next season as the highest ranked American at worlds as well has the highest ranked skater at his own Nationals (with Bradley’s retirement). With three solid back-to-back competitions, we can’t dismiss him as a fluke. And he’s planning on working on a quad this summer. It’s definitely plausible
ii. What happens to Abbott and Rippon?
Rippon went from beating the reigning World Champion (on his own turf) AND the reigning Olympic Silver medalist with a program score that suggested he would challenge for the podium (his LP score was higher than Gachinski’s at Worlds). Abbott was the two time National champion. Neither had sterling GP seasons, but when compared to the PCS-less Mroz, the out-of-retirement Bradley, the newness of Armin, the struggling Miner…. well, Nationals should’ve been a breeze. Instead, neither made the top three/Worlds team.
On the one hand, Rippon does tend to start strongly (TEB bronze medal in 2009) only to falter as the season progresses. And Abbott does normally peak early and might have been attempting recalibration to avoid that this time. But what lessons do they take? What does that mean for the upcoming season?
iii. Breadth vs Depth: Max, Mroz, Miner, Messing, Mahbanoozadeh
If you were to ask me which nation had the deepest team, I’d go with Japan. Four skaters in the top ten SB. Medalists at seven GP events, 4CC and Worlds, senior and junior. But in terms of breadth and depth…. I’d go with the USA. Four skaters qualified for the JGPF. Assuming both Ferris and Brown stick with juniors (both can, and given that Brown is without a 3A and that Ferris is coming back from injury/between coaches, they should). Miner had a solid result at Worlds that some feel was actually too low (doris, Blades). Mroz had a strong GP season, as did Mahbanoozadeh and Messing. And Max starts with M, so ignoring Mr. Aaron seemed mean. Can one of them have a true breakthrough season? You know, checking out past worlds, the USA has had “one-time” top ten candidates with Carriere, Mroz, Rippon, Abbott and Dornbush (the last three have the big honkin caveat that is SO FAR)
Canada’s Number Two?
Does SC really care? Here’s the thing. If Chan gets injured, are there two Canadians you think could guarantee TWO spots if they skate their best? Heading into this season, who woulda thunk that Sawyer AND Russell would beat Reynolds to the world team? It might not be fair to say this, but Chan’s LP score was greater than Russell’s/Reynolds total score at Worlds. Reynolds should be good enough for a top ten/12, but not this year. I’m most curious about Firus and Rogozine. Firus doesn’t have the triple axel, but he’s got a lovely sense of artistry. I doubt Firus is making the leap to seniors until the 2012/13 season, so he’s out. Rogozine, well he’s got the 3A and does it from a spread eagle. But, similar to Mroz, his PCS aren’t that strong and he’ll need a LOT of work to develop there. Very curious to see what Balde does on the international circuit. He’s someone I suspect could have a solid career outside the competitive ranks.
I do think this is a make or break year for Reynolds, though. I almost want him to stop chasing the four quads and just work on improving his PCS and general consistency/mental game.
Random side note: Canada finds it easier to get three spots than to keep them. 2007-2012: 3 spots (Buttle, Sandhu, Mabee), 2 spots (Buttle, Chan), 3 (Chan, Chipeur, Ten), 2 (Chan, Reynolds), 3 (Chan, Reynolds, Russell), 2 (Chan, ??)
Ring out the old, Bring in the New....
Brezina vs Verner
Amodio vs Joubert
Gachinsky vs Plushenko’s ghost
Hanyu vs Kozuka vs Takahashi vs Oda
It’s rather appropriate that Chan won the title this past season, for he represents both worlds. Thanks to Buttle retiring, he was elevated to his country’s number one rather fortuitously (though maybe he would’ve done that in the 08/09 season anyway). But he’s actually younger than Rippon, Brezina, Amodio, and Kozuka (and only a month older than Miner). But I think that the shift we were anticipating for last season will be fully played out in time for Nice. Amodio, Brezina and Kozuka were all the ranking skaters at worlds, and despite losing the National title, Gachinsky’s solid Euros sent him to Worlds... and you know the rest. Of the four, only one of them won.
It’ll be neat to see some of the choices from the other federations (if, indeed, it turns out choices need to be made). Majorov vs Schlutheiss. Van der Perren vs Hendrickx. Mostly, I’m curious about the Japanese men. Assuming that Tanaka stays junior another season and that none of the also-rans has a big breakthrough, the Japanese federation has a very interesting foursome at play here.
It’s Chan’s World, we just live in it
His scoring capability is epic. He doesn’t merely beat records, he smashes them. He’s a COP machine (yes, I realize the negative connotations of that word, and don’t mean to shirk them). His improvement this season has been damn near historic. He went from a season of no quads to landing three per competition. His triple axel, while shaky, isn’t going away any time soon. He’ll enter every competition as the favourite. Keep in mind this is an athlete who dreams of dominating – like Kwan, like Federer, like Tiger Woods. And if he continues to improve at even half the rate we saw this year.... whoa. It’ll be cool to see if he thrives on being one of the chased skaters as much as one of the chasers.
So, what does he need to do maintain his momentum this upcoming season? What would you like to see him do overall? Is his goal of domination plausible?
The first question is easy: merely keep challenging himself (which he’s clearly doing with going for the quad lutz/flip attempts; as well as getting to work right away) and stay injury free. The second question and third questions... well, I’m more curious about others responses here.
America: An epic opera in three parts
i. Is Dornbush the new number one?
He’s entering next season as the highest ranked American at worlds as well has the highest ranked skater at his own Nationals (with Bradley’s retirement). With three solid back-to-back competitions, we can’t dismiss him as a fluke. And he’s planning on working on a quad this summer. It’s definitely plausible
ii. What happens to Abbott and Rippon?
Rippon went from beating the reigning World Champion (on his own turf) AND the reigning Olympic Silver medalist with a program score that suggested he would challenge for the podium (his LP score was higher than Gachinski’s at Worlds). Abbott was the two time National champion. Neither had sterling GP seasons, but when compared to the PCS-less Mroz, the out-of-retirement Bradley, the newness of Armin, the struggling Miner…. well, Nationals should’ve been a breeze. Instead, neither made the top three/Worlds team.
On the one hand, Rippon does tend to start strongly (TEB bronze medal in 2009) only to falter as the season progresses. And Abbott does normally peak early and might have been attempting recalibration to avoid that this time. But what lessons do they take? What does that mean for the upcoming season?
iii. Breadth vs Depth: Max, Mroz, Miner, Messing, Mahbanoozadeh
If you were to ask me which nation had the deepest team, I’d go with Japan. Four skaters in the top ten SB. Medalists at seven GP events, 4CC and Worlds, senior and junior. But in terms of breadth and depth…. I’d go with the USA. Four skaters qualified for the JGPF. Assuming both Ferris and Brown stick with juniors (both can, and given that Brown is without a 3A and that Ferris is coming back from injury/between coaches, they should). Miner had a solid result at Worlds that some feel was actually too low (doris, Blades). Mroz had a strong GP season, as did Mahbanoozadeh and Messing. And Max starts with M, so ignoring Mr. Aaron seemed mean. Can one of them have a true breakthrough season? You know, checking out past worlds, the USA has had “one-time” top ten candidates with Carriere, Mroz, Rippon, Abbott and Dornbush (the last three have the big honkin caveat that is SO FAR)
Canada’s Number Two?
Does SC really care? Here’s the thing. If Chan gets injured, are there two Canadians you think could guarantee TWO spots if they skate their best? Heading into this season, who woulda thunk that Sawyer AND Russell would beat Reynolds to the world team? It might not be fair to say this, but Chan’s LP score was greater than Russell’s/Reynolds total score at Worlds. Reynolds should be good enough for a top ten/12, but not this year. I’m most curious about Firus and Rogozine. Firus doesn’t have the triple axel, but he’s got a lovely sense of artistry. I doubt Firus is making the leap to seniors until the 2012/13 season, so he’s out. Rogozine, well he’s got the 3A and does it from a spread eagle. But, similar to Mroz, his PCS aren’t that strong and he’ll need a LOT of work to develop there. Very curious to see what Balde does on the international circuit. He’s someone I suspect could have a solid career outside the competitive ranks.
I do think this is a make or break year for Reynolds, though. I almost want him to stop chasing the four quads and just work on improving his PCS and general consistency/mental game.
Random side note: Canada finds it easier to get three spots than to keep them. 2007-2012: 3 spots (Buttle, Sandhu, Mabee), 2 spots (Buttle, Chan), 3 (Chan, Chipeur, Ten), 2 (Chan, Reynolds), 3 (Chan, Reynolds, Russell), 2 (Chan, ??)
Ring out the old, Bring in the New....
Brezina vs Verner
Amodio vs Joubert
Gachinsky vs Plushenko’s ghost
Hanyu vs Kozuka vs Takahashi vs Oda
It’s rather appropriate that Chan won the title this past season, for he represents both worlds. Thanks to Buttle retiring, he was elevated to his country’s number one rather fortuitously (though maybe he would’ve done that in the 08/09 season anyway). But he’s actually younger than Rippon, Brezina, Amodio, and Kozuka (and only a month older than Miner). But I think that the shift we were anticipating for last season will be fully played out in time for Nice. Amodio, Brezina and Kozuka were all the ranking skaters at worlds, and despite losing the National title, Gachinsky’s solid Euros sent him to Worlds... and you know the rest. Of the four, only one of them won.
It’ll be neat to see some of the choices from the other federations (if, indeed, it turns out choices need to be made). Majorov vs Schlutheiss. Van der Perren vs Hendrickx. Mostly, I’m curious about the Japanese men. Assuming that Tanaka stays junior another season and that none of the also-rans has a big breakthrough, the Japanese federation has a very interesting foursome at play here.