Where would Caroline have been?

[feraina]

And remember that she competed her Senior SP at the Japan Invitational team event in September (and then went straight to Chemnitz, Germany for her 2nd JGP).

How's her senior SP different from the junior SP? A different solo triple? At least she doesn't have to change the choreography or overall layout very much there.

You're right, Rachael already has some senior experience -- she competed as a senior all of last season, actually, having to qualify to get to National's. I guess there are three factors that may affect an athlete's first senior's:
1) comfort/confidence skating with other senior ladies and in front of the senior judges, and having more media attention, etc.
2) familiarity with the senior program, since both the SP and LP are different (though the SP is only minorly different)
3) reputation with the judges

I think Rachael's previous senior experience would help her with 1) and 3) but not 2).

On the other hand, as a first-year senior with nothing on the line (no world's, no 4CC), they can skate without much pressure or expectation. I suppose Rachael would love to go to her first JW (and win it too! she got close to beating Mirai at JGPF). Mirai would love to best Caroline at both National's and JW. And Caroline would probably like to go into record as the first double JW champion. But it's unlikely that anyone could beat these three for the JW team -- so not much pressure there. I guess only trouble is if Ashley Wagner doesn't qualify for WC, and then she'd be looking to go back to JW as well. But OTOH, if Ashley can't beat one of Emily and Alissa, then she's also unlikely to beat one of Caroline, Mirai, and Rachael.

 

[chuckm]

Ashley could finish 6th and still go to Worlds, if 3 of those who finish above her aren't age-eligible. I don't envision Alissa and Bebe beating Ashley at Nationals, although ice is slippery and anything can happen.

I'm hoping for Zhang, Nagasu and Flatt to be the team for Junior Worlds. If they all skate well at Nationals, the only other skater who could possibly be considered over one of them would be the Junior champion, and only if that turns out to be Kristine Musademba or Angela Maxwell, both of whom have international experience.

 

[bekalc]

Ashley could finish 6th and still go to Worlds, if 3 of those who finish above her aren't age-eligible. I don't envision Alissa and Bebe beating Ashley at Nationals, although ice is slippery and anything can happen.

I'm hoping for Zhang, Nagasu and Flatt to be the team for Junior Worlds. If they all skate well at Nationals, the only other skater who could possibly be considered over one of them would be the Junior champion, and only if that turns out to be Kristine Musademba or Angela Maxwell, both of whom have international experience.

Can't see the team not being Zhang, Nagasu, and Flatt. All three have done better on the international scene then Musademba/and Maxwell.

 

[Sylvia]

I just noticed there is no Senior Ladies pre-event discussion thread in the 2008 U.S. Nationals forum and so I've started one using the relevant parts of the posts above :
http://forum.hdldemo.com/forum/showthread.php?t=18508

 

[chuckm]

The International Junior ladies will be glad to see the end of ZNF (Zhang, Nagasu, Flatt) at the end of this season. Next year, the Ladies event will be wide open in the JGP (but look out, Angela Maxwell is coming back and Kristine Musademba wants a JGPF medal).

 

[Tinymavy15]

Yeah, Caroline Z looks much stronger, may be to early to say.. we'll see !

funny... that people say that caroline is so much tougher... she has yet to skate a clean freeskate as a senior.

 

[netnuts]

funny... that people say that caroline is so much tougher... she has yet to skate a clean freeskate as a senior.

How many top female skaters have skated clean long anyway?

Yu-Na Kim skated exactly one clean long at CoR since her senior debut. She made lots of fatal mistakes such as falling & popping in competition after competition but still scored well..

Mao skated one clean at worlds and one more this time at GPF. She might have done a few in 2006 Olys year.

Miki Ando skated one clean at SA in 2006, and one more at 2007 worlds.

Kostner none for a long time.

Kimmie none since 2006 worlds

Nakano none since when(?)

Joannie one since when(?)

 

[Skye]

I watched Caroline's LP just now. It was my favorite of the night. She skated it with speed, power, the jumps were fullt rotated. they looked bigger. If she had not fallen on the lutz, would she have won? Being in 2, she was the only one besides Mao, who was in last place after the SP who didn't make a mistake. (if she had that last lutz) what would have happened?

Had Zhang not fallen on the lutz, she would have placed on the podium knocking off Kostner, but still far behind Asada or Kim. She has gained more speed and power compared to the beginning of the season but she is yet very slow and tentative and it's even more glaring when she skates between Kostner and Kim, the two fastest ladies out there. Her jumps have improved in rotation and size while the season has progressed but comparing her jumps with someone like Kim or Asada would be like comparing her layback to a lv4 spin from Kostner. Getting the job done yes, but that ain't enough. I admire her determination and tough mental, envy her stretched lines and acrobatic skills but she's still very much a junior in terms of the basic skating skills.

 

[kikakiks]

Tiny, I agree with you that Caroline skated with more speed, power (and confidence) in this competition. And her jumps were more fully rotated too. At SA, her 3-3's received -GOE's as well as downgrades. Since then, she's had them ratified with positive GOE's (in the GPF LP, she received 10.3 for her 3F-3T, the same as Carolina K). So for all those who cry lenient tech calling, I suggest closer observation of slow-mo videos! Not only did the tech panel ratify the jumps, but all the judges thought the combo was good too. I think she makes up for the lack of height with good in-air positions and strong landings. She never looks sloppy in these jumps.

I really think she was blessed with GOEs. How on earth could she get the same goe as Kostner on the triple-triple?? Zhang jumps as if she is on the floor, not the ice. After the first triple she stops and then she rotates super quickly in the air. that has no flow and should receive zero or minimal goe. Kostner's (when is on) is just slightly below Yu-na's level (I'd say 0.20 below) or the same level.

On the other hand Zhang was a little hurt on pcs, but her disadvantage was skating just after kostner who is tall, has expressive body movements and has very fast and steady edges. This is not to bash Zhang, it is reality: if you watched the competition live and not on you tube you could see a huge difference between the two. Zhang's program was SOOOOO slow, she seemed to be staying in the same spot of the ice forever! Had she skated after Nakano the pcs would have eneded up higher. Personally I agree on the skating skills and interpretation, but I would have given her slightly higher transitions and definitely higher Performance.
Someone must explain me, since when the only determinant for Goe on spirals has become flexibility?? Zhang is extremely bendy and should receive plus Goes, but 1.60? This is a joke...She was basically still on the ice and had no edges...This is a mistery....

 

[kikakiks]

You're right, and I remember that mistake. Miki got level1, the sequence was worth just 1.6 points, and she got -.08GOE for a total of 1.74 points, vs. Kostner's 3.6 points.

The choice of the level is a responsibility of the tech caller, not of the judges. As a matter of fact the judges all gave her zero or negative Goe except one (maybe italian judge? was there one?). looking at it again, the tech specialist probably kept the level because (differently from miki, were the problem was more obvious) she managed to hold the blade for three seconds and she didn't unbalance that much.
Still, i think Kostner should have gotten level 3 on that spiral, not level 4.
Anyway, judges were not really on her side if you see the protocols. She had three very nice combos (high and flowing) and received low goes on them. Some judge even managed to give her negative goe on the triple lutz-double loop which was reeeeally high and fast in the connection between the two jumps (that was hilarious...it must have been the american judge...if there was one)

 

[kikakiks]

oh it was so damn predictable someone would scream the world italian mafia wanted Carolina on the podium. Shall we talk about Asada's score in SP? Or Meissner's PCS in sp? Carolina was bronze and deserved bronze.

I can agree with you that spirals should have been lv 3 because of the biellman, but step sequence should have been lv4 again just like in Japan, she deserves that level, and it was lv3, so it's illogical. But I don't get judges anyways, especially after this final'SP (crazy...), so :scratch:

Well said!
I just think it wouldn't have been fair Zhang winning over kostner even with the (F)lutz. There is just too much difference in terms of basic skating and interpretation. Plus you can always argue: if Kostner hadn't stepped out of her axel or hadn't made that mistake in the spiral...or hadn't she popped the flip....
The thing is, making just one mistake in a long program is already a big achievement! If Zhang goes on this way, she will blow the roof off in Vancouver (even with one mistke!). On average, you can expect only one (or none) clean long programs in a competition.

btw, Europeans won medals not because of Cinquanta, but because:
- Lambiel: bc he is just superior in all the skating, steps and spins to takahashi (check the protocols) When you Yu-Na does win because of this noone says anything...
- Savchenko-Zolkowi: so superior. Full Stop.
- Russians: haven't watched, but that wasn't a surprise right???

 

[feraina]

I just think it wouldn't have been fair Zhang winning over kostner even with the (F)lutz. There is just too much difference in terms of basic skating and interpretation. Plus you can always argue: if Kostner hadn't stepped out of her axel or hadn't made that mistake in the spiral...or hadn't she popped the flip....

I don't know about interpretation, but I think Carolina K has good basic skating skills (in comparison to Caroline Z), and also originality in her music/choreography. But a competition is determined by how skaters skate on that particular night (or the two nights combined), not their general skills -- or Carolina K would've won many more medals than she has! In this case, I think Carolina K deserved the bronze she has.

But I believe the original intent of the thread was to ask whether Caroline would've placed any differently had she not fallen on the lutz. I think the general consensus is that she would have by the mathematics of CoP, unless judges (unethically) lowers her PCS further just to keep her down.

We can also envisage other scenarios of course. The actual point difference was about 2.5 points. If Carolina K had not popped the the flip in the LP (she lost about 5 points here), then even if Caroline landed her lutz, Carolina K probably would've won. If she didn't pop the 2A in the SP, a required element, then she would've gotten maybe 3 to 3.5 points, and then Caroline landing a lutz (gaining about 6 points) should've just (barely) won the bronze -- close call though. If Carolina K didn't step out of the 2A in the LP, she would've gained about 2 points, and again Caroline would've won (slightly more comfortably).

Carolina K lost to Caroline Z in the TES, despite the latter's fall, mainly because of lower GOE's and/or levels on the spins and spirals. These are things she can work on -- I think she's fully capable of level 4 spins/spirals, as well as high GOE's. Caroline, OTOH, can work on her skating skills such as speed, as well as higher/bigger jumps. I would also like to see her skate to different kinds of music, especially ones that can make her beam and emote as she does in her exhibitions.

I would love to see all the girls, not just these two, work on their weaknesses and emphasize their strengths, and come out with good, clean programs skated to the best of their abilities, the next time they meet on the ice.

 

[ChrisH]

Caroline didn't just fall on the 3Lz, she had an obvious flutz and the jump was downgraded. Very efficient use of deductions! Seriously though, if the jump wasn't downgraded, Caroline would've finished ahead of Kostner by 0.06 points (all else being equal). I thought that Caroline made the rotations, but whatever. Kostner, with new personal bests in her free skate and overall, was a worthy winner.

It was a bit odd that there were 6 falls in the free skate, but only Caroline's fall was accompanied by a downgrade. In the Cup of China, both of her falls were also downgraded. Caroline carries speed into her flip and lutz jumps and so I think severe underrotations there lead directly to falls. Unlike at CoC, though, I think she was closer to saving the landing here and that's because it was closer to be rotated. The difference between 3rd and 4th was no more than 15 degrees of rotation, IMO.

 

[ChrisH]

I watched Caroline's LP just now. It was my favorite of the night. She skated it with speed, power, the jumps were fullt rotated. they looked bigger.

I liked Mao's LP just a little bit better. I agree that Caroline's jumps were better rotated. Which probably means she skated with more speed and power and had bigger jumps, but I couldn't tell. With Mao, not only was her LP the most technically superior program I've ever seen, she rallied back from a disaster in the short program. That was just a little bit more heartwarming for me than Caroline's new personal bests in the LP and overall.

 

[feraina]

Seriously though, if the jump wasn't downgraded, Caroline would've finished ahead of Kostner by 0.06 points (all else being equal).

Wow, it was that close?!

I thought when Caroline and her coach were waiting for the scores to come up in the K&C, she kinda went "ow, man" when she saw her LP score, and "ow, man" again when she saw the total -- she was really so close to the bronze, and she knew she blew it with the lutz. The lutz she fell on didn't have much height, I'm not surprised it was under-rotated and she fell on it. I'm all for changing the entry to the shorter, straighter one like in her SP.

 

[ChrisH]

Wow, it was that close?!

I thought when Caroline and her coach were waiting for the scores to come up in the K&C, she kinda went "ow, man" when she saw her LP score, and "ow, man" again when she saw the total -

OO didn't actually say anything, did she? That is a fun translation of her body language. Speaking of which, do you recall what she said at Skate America in the LP K&C? She may have been speaking a bit of mandarin.

- she was really so close to the bronze, and she knew she blew it with the lutz. The lutz she fell on didn't have much height, I'm not surprised it was under-rotated and she fell on it. I'm all for changing the entry to the shorter, straighter one like in her SP.

Okay, yeah, Caroline didn't have much height. It's a pain without slowmo to look at the entry and the takeoff, the height and the distance, and the exact moment of the landing. Oh well, maybe her lutz was more than a quarter short on rotation. As if a 3Lz wasn't hard enough, they put it as her last jump in the 2nd half of her LP. I wonder what led to that decision?

I too have been picking apart Caroline's lutz and I also prefer the entry Caroline does in her SP. She approaches the jump on a RBO edge and does a front crossover step to a LBO edge into the 3Lz. (Let me know if I don't describe this stuff correctly.) She has landed all of her 3Lz's in the SP. She did that entry once in the LP, on her 2nd 3Lz at SA, and she landed it. Her other entry is a long LBI edge to a LBO edge into the 3Lz. She landed all of the 1st 3Lz's in the LP using that entry but she fell on both attempts of the 2nd 3Lz. So,

step entry: 4 out of 4
swerving entry: 3 out of 5

I don't know if you can blame the swerving entry though, as fatigue might be the real issue. Also, at Cup of China, soft ice could've been the biggest problem. I recall Kim using that swerving entry into one of her 3Lz's. I like the step entry because it looks like she's in more control and so it looks better. Aren't the connecting steps supposed to be harder, though?

I'm guessing that Caroline's long term problem with the lutz (besides power) is that she needs to toe pick more behind her rather than to her right and to do so she needs to lift her picking leg more behind her. That would make her lutz look more like Meissner's, Ando's, and Kim's (or so I imagine). Currently, when she starts to bring her leg down, she is on an outside edge (as she is supposed to be), but when her foot finally picks the ice, she in on a slight inside edge. I don't think that lowering her kick would make much of a difference as I think it's a balance issue.

 

[oleada]

I really think she was blessed with GOEs. How on earth could she get the same goe as Kostner on the triple-triple?? Zhang jumps as if she is on the floor, not the ice. After the first triple she stops and then she rotates super quickly in the air. that has no flow and should receive zero or minimal goe. Kostner's (when is on) is just slightly below Yu-na's level (I'd say 0.20 below) or the same level.

I agree. I'm baffled really, on the GOE Caroline gets on her jumps. Her triple-triple is tiny, and without any flow, and Kostner has huge speed and much more power and height. Them getting the same amount of GOE is ridiculous.

Frankly, I wouldn't give her + GOE on her solo triple flip either. Her technique is just ugly, and it's not like her jumps have height or flow out of the landing to make up for it. Caroline has many positive qualities - spins, consistency, audience connection - , but her jumps don't deserve as much GOE as she's getting. But that's just my opinion.

 

[Dennis]

I agree. I'm baffled really, on the GOE Caroline gets on her jumps. Her triple-triple is tiny, and without any flow, and Kostner has huge speed and much more power and height. Them getting the same amount of GOE is ridiculous.

Frankly, I wouldn't give her + GOE on her solo triple flip either. Her technique is just ugly, and it's not like her jumps have height or flow out of the landing to make up for it. Caroline has many positive qualities - spins, consistency, audience connection - , but her jumps don't deserve as much GOE as she's getting. But that's just my opinion.

Oh really! Kostner has never turned me on as a skater. She skates like she is in a horse race. The only thing she has going for her is her damn dresses. They have held her up for years and you all know it. When the girl can give me two good skates in one comp then I will be on her bandwagon.

 

[feraina]

Caroline Z gets decent GOE's on her 3/3 and solo 3F because she has good in-air position (if not height or distance), and tidy landing position. You rarely see her struggling for the landing (she falls if she really under-rotates, but otherwise it's always a tidy landing), the way Emily seems to struggle for every one of them. She doesn't telegraph her jump preparations the way Carolina does, and she does smooth, nice footwork into her solo 3F. Plus she lands the 3F with her arms over her hand, coming down prettily. It counts as a difficult variation, and shows control and body-awareness.

I'm not saying she has the best jumps, but she definitely deserves the GOE's that she gets. I suggest those confused by how jump GOE's are given to go and read the ISU rules before coming to bash skaters on these boards...

ETA: on the swervy entry for the lutz, Caroline under-rotated every single one of them this season, I believe. They put the hardest jumps in the second half because they garner the most points that way. Mirai has both of her 3 lutzes in the second half this season, even though she had trouble rotating the second one even when they were far apart (at national's last year, for instance; if she had rotated that second lutz, she would've beaten Caroline by more points). And this season I think Mirai has had at least one lutz downgraded in every LP.

I think the skaters can probably fully rotate these jumps in practice, in isolation, so then it makes sense to get the 10% bonus on the hardest jumps. But the fatigue and stress of the competition means that they often run out of steam in the second half -- I think this was (rightly) the rationale for rewarding jumps in the second half. For skaters who consistently under-rotates jumps in the second half, I wonder if it doesn't make sense to shuffle the jumps around...

 

[oleada]

Feraina, I think you've made good points, but for me (and I admit that this might just be me and it might not affect others as much) her technique is horribly distracting - like nails on the chalkboard, really. I honestly think it prevents me from getting into her skating.

As for Kostner - to each their own, I guess.