Who are contenders for 2022 Oly team event?

[Skater Boy]

I mean in hindsight, they could've swapped in WeaPo and still likely would've won the team gold, but it's hard to know prior to the competition. They were gunning for the gold, so I'm not sure it's necessarily rude for them to rely on their far more dominant team. It sucks WeaPo missed out both years, but V/M were so dominant that I see the argument for including them to guarantee the 20 points.

They would have won gold still with Weapo with their placements at the olympics but had for example Chan not done nearly as well which could have been anticipated or DR placed a bit lower the gold could have been in jeopardy. It was all in hindsight but Weapo are really unlucky. They came seventh in two olympics in a row when they were getting better. Life isn't always fair. They were so so close to WGM ne year

 

[Skater Boy]

Regarding Cipres, the victim didn’t press charge with the police; USOC’s Safe Sports has no jurisdiction over him; ISU and FFSG won’t investigate him; James won’t discard him, they are more than likely to compete and aim for an Olympic team medal.

Regarding Jason, there’re 5-6 other skaters in the 10-skater SP who could score higher than or around him, therefore it’s riskier for Team USA to use him in the SP. In the 5-skater FS, the chance of him skating clean and getting 7-8 points is high. The question is: will he or Vincent be selected for the team event? Vincent will be in his prime age-wise and likely won’t be worse than Jason for the FS. He may be the new leader for Team USA after Beijing, as Nathan and Jason may retire. Thus, politically USFS may incline to help him get an Olympic medal, which Jason has had.

I am not even sure why Jason is in the mix for the team event. Why wouldn't they go with Nathan in both events. Even with one mistake nathan will probably score higher in the sp. And if Jason makes a miske in the sp he could find himself beaten by a lot of skaters if they are clean. It makes sense looking at the potential team and with the rules that Nathan skate both events it is less riskier for the pairs, ladies or dance to split the opportunities. Men's is the probably the highest risk People love Jason but strategically at least at this point he is probably the worst candidate to compete in the team from what the USA has.

 

[Colonel Green]

I am not even sure why Jason is in the mix for the team event. Why wouldn't they go with Nathan in both events.

I'm sure the USFS would love to have Nathan do both parts of the team event, but Nathan won't want to, just as he didn't in 2018. So he'll probably do the short and then somebody else will get the call for the long; which, since the US has lots of depth in the men's event, is no problem.

 

[Tahuu]

I am not even sure why Jason is in the mix for the team event. Why wouldn't they go with Nathan in both events. Even with one mistake nathan will probably score higher in the sp. And if Jason makes a miske in the sp he could find himself beaten by a lot of skaters if they are clean. It makes sense looking at the potential team and with the rules that Nathan skate both events it is less riskier for the pairs, ladies or dance to split the opportunities. Men's is the probably the highest risk People love Jason but strategically at least at this point he is probably the worst candidate to compete in the team from what the USA has.

That might be a possibility if a strong Alexa/Tim pair team forms and team USA be competitive to team Russia for a reachable team gold, especially if China fights as hard for their bronze medal. For example:

RUS 68

SP 34:
Aliev 6 KOSTORNAIA 10 BOIKOVA/KOZLOVSKII 9 SINITSINA/KATSALAPOV 9

FS 34
Aliev 6 Trusova 10 BOIKOVA/KOZLOVSKII 9 SINITSINA/KATSALAPOV 9

USA 68

SP 33:
Chen 9 Liu 8 Scimeca Knierim/LeDuc 8 CHOCK/BATES 8

FS 35:
Chen 10 Liu 9 Scimeca Knierim/LeDuc 8 CHOCK/BATES 8

 

[oatmella]

I would guess that Nathan will skate only one segment in the team event. He actually doesn’t compete a lot compared to other skaters, and I don’t see him doing four programs at the Olympics.

 

[ribbit]

That seems a bit shortsighted. It's certainly good to take the "top" skaters preferences into account (including the top skaters in all four disciplines), but if you use a substitute in a discipline where the available substitutes are very weak (at the choice of the "top" skater in that discipline) , you significantly weaken your chances in the team event.

That's true, and for a team-only competition, I would agree with you that that way of thinking makes a lot of sense. But the (unique?) challenge of the Olympic team event is that it's held in conjunction with a full slate of individual events; for the US in 2018, the results of the team event were unlikely to be affected by using substitutions, but the use of skaters in the team event was quite likely to affect the individual results. Presumably the thinking was that those top-ranked skaters would be the most competitive for individual medals and would know best whether competing four times in (for the men, at least) very quick succession would help or hinder their chances of medaling in the individual events. Given that individual medals were/are considered to be more prestigious, and that the US wasn't likely to win team gold under any circumstances, it makes sense that they would have allowed those skaters who had the best shot at individual medals to maximize their chances of success in their individual events.

Things didn't play out that way, of course, but the only likely* change to the actual results that I can see is the possibility that Nathan would have rebounded in the long program and finished first, adding two points to the US's final tally and subtracting one each from Canada and Russia. That wouldn't have changed the team medals at all, and there's no way to know what it would have done to Nathan's performance in the individual event.

*In 2017-18 Bradie was the top US lady in world ranking, but Mirai was the top US lady in world standings. I don't know which the US would have treated as the top-ranked skater, but I don't think it's plausible that either would have outdone the other's actual performance. Nobody was going to beat Alina in the free skate, and Bradie's score in the team SP was two points higher than Mirai's score in the individual SP, which was her international season's best by nearly two points. And her previous season's best, her NHK SP, included a fully rotated 3A (albeit with negative GOE--she never landed a rotated 3A with positive GOE in the SP that year). At the time of the team event, Bradie's international SP season's best was nearly two points higher than Mirai's. So the selection committee made a logical choice.

I don't mean to knock Mirai at all--I think her team FS and her successful 3A there was a wonderful accomplishment--but I don't see her finding the additional 4.5 points she would have needed on top of that Olympic season's best (6.2 on top of her season's best at the time) to beat Kaetlyn Osmond, adding another two points to the US total and subtracting one from Canada's, and again, nobody was going to beat Evgenia. If Mirai had somehow managed to do that, and Nathan had won the FS and Mikhail Kolyada had finished no higher than third, then the US would have taken silver and the OAR the bronze. But I don't think it's at all likely that that would have happened.

Apologies for the topic:. Clearly I need to stop wondering "what if?" and go to bed!

 

[skylark]

That's true, and for a team-only competition, I would agree with you that that way of thinking makes a lot of sense. But the (unique?) challenge of the Olympic team event is that it's held in conjunction with a full slate of individual events; for the US in 2018, the results of the team event were unlikely to be affected by using substitutions, but the use of skaters in the team event was quite likely to affect the individual results. Presumably the thinking was that those top-ranked skaters would be the most competitive for individual medals and would know best whether competing four times in (for the men, at least) very quick succession would help or hinder their chances of medaling in the individual events.

Very well said. This is one of the big problems with the team events for me, and if individual skaters, pairs or dancers haven't done it before, they don't know how it will affect them.

Kori Ade said after the Sochi Olympics, when her student Jason Brown skated the FS in the team event, that we (coaches, everyone) prepare skaters to be able to skate two good programs for every competition. They're pretty well conditioned for that. But adding one or two skates to the competition week changes things.

Unless of course, you're super-human like Meryl Davis and Charlie White.

Apologies for the I don't even have the late-at-night excuse!

 

[TeamGubanova]

With Just current team and partnerships in mind it seems likely that these 10 countries would qualify




Definetley:
Olympic Athletes of Russia
USA
Canada
France
Germany
Italy
China
Japan
Israel
Ukraine

Alternates
Spain
Great Britain
Switzerland

Points

Olympic Athletes of Russia: 69
Aliev - SP 6
Danielian - FS 7

Kostornaia - SP 9
Valieva - FS 10

Boiikova/Kozlovskii - SP 9
Boiikova/Kozlovskii - FS 10

Sinitsina/Katsalapov - RD 9
Stepanova/Bukin - FD 9

United States: 65

Nathan Chen - SP 9
Vincent Zhou - FS 8

Mariah Bell - SP 8
Alysa Liu - FS 8

Cain/LeDuc - SP 6
Calalang/Johnson - FS 8

Hubbell/Donohue - RD 8
Chock/Bates FD 10

Canada:

Nam Nguyen - SP 4
Roman Sadovsky - FS

Emily Bausback - SP 2
Emily Bausback - FS

Moore-Towers/Marinaro - SP 8
Moore-Towers/Marinaro - FS

Gilles/Porier - RD 7
Gilles/Porier - FD

France: 51

Kevin Aymoz - SP 7
Kevin Aymoz - FS 7

Maiia Mazzara - SP 4
Maiia Mazzara - FS 7

Hamon/Streaklin - SP 2
Hamon/Streaklin - FS 6

Papadakis/Cizeron - RD 10
Papadakis/Cizeron - FD 8

Germany:

Paul Fentz - SP 1
Paul Fentz - FS

Nicole Schott - SP 7
Nicole Schott - FS

Hase/Seegert - SP 7
Hocke/Kunkel - FS

Müller/Dieck RD 3
Müller/Dieck FD

Italy:

Matteo Rizzo - SP 5
Daniel Grassl - FS

Alessia Tornaghi - SP 5
Alessia Tornaghi - FS

Della Monica/Guarise - SP 5
Della Monica/Guarise - FS

Guignard/Fabbri - RD 6
Guignard Fabbri - FD

China: 57

Jin Boyang - SP 8
Jin Boyang - FS 9

Chen Hongyi - SP 3
Chen Hongyi - FS 6

Sui/Han - SP 10
Peng/Jin - FS 9

Wang/Liu - RD 5
Wang/Liu - FD 7

Japan: 58

Yuzuru Hanyu - SP 10
Shoma Uno - FS 10

Rika Kihira - SP 10
Mana Kawabe - FS 9

Miura/Kihara - SP 4
Miura/Kihara - FS 7

Yoshida/Nishiyama - RD 2
Yoshida/Nishiyama - FD 6

Israel:

Alexei Bychenko - SP 3
Alexei Bychenko - FS

Nelli Ioffe - SP 1
Nelli Ioffe - FS

Verinikov/Krasnopolski - SP 3
Verinikov/Krasnopolski - FS

Nosovitskaya/Nosovitsky - RD 1
Nosovitskaya/Nosovitsky - FD

Ukraine:

Ivan Shmuratko - SP 2
Ivan Shmuratko - FS

Anastasiia Shabotova - SP 6
Anastasiia Shabotova - FS

Dzitsiuk/Pavlov - SP 1
Dzitsiux/Pavlov - FS

Nazarova/Nikitin - RD 4
Nazarova/Nikitin - FD

Standings

1. Russia 33 Q
2. United States 31 Q
3. Japan 26 Q
4. China 26 Q
5. France 23 Q
Did Not Advance
6. Canada 21
7. Italy 21
8. Germany 18
9. Ukraine 13
10. Israel 8

Final Standings

GOLD: OAR: 69 (Dmitri Aliev, Artur Danielian, Alena Kostornaia, Kamila Valieva, Aleksandra Boiikova/Dmitri Kozlovskii, Victoria Sinitsina/Nikita Katsalapov, Alexandra
Stepanova/Ivan Bukin)
SILVER: USA: 65 (Nathan Chen, Vincent Zhou, Mariah Bell, Alysa Liu, Ashley Cain/Timothy LeDuc, Jessica Calalang/Brian Johnson,Madison Chock/Evan Bates, Madison
Hubbell/Zachary Donohue)
BRONZE: Japan 58 (Yuzuru Hanyu, Shoma Uno, Rika Kihira, Mana Kawabe, Rika Miura/Riyuichi Kihara, Utana Yoshida / Shingo Nishiyama)
4th: China 57 (Jin Boyang, Chen Hongyi, Weijing Sui/Cong Han, Chen Peng, Jin Yang, Wang Shiyue/Liu Xinyue)
5th: France 51 (Kevin Aymoz, Maiia Mazzara, Cleo Hamon/Denis Streaklin, Gabriella Papadakis/Guillome Cizeron)
6th Canada 21
7th Italy 21
8th Germany 18
9th Ukraine 13
10th Israel 8

 

[ice coverage]

With Just current team and partnerships in mind it seems likely that these 10 countries would qualify

Points

Olympic Athletes of Russia: 69
Aliev - SP 6
Danielian - FS 7

Kostornaia - SP 9
Valieva - FS 10

Boiikova/Kozlovskii - SP 9
Boiikova/Kozlovskii - FS 10

Sinitsina/Katsalapov - RD 9
Stepanova/Bukin - FD 9

United States: 65

Nathan Chen - SP 9
Vincent Zhou - FS 8

Mariah Bell - SP 8
Alysa Liu - FS 8

Cain/LeDuc - SP 6
Calalang/Johnson - FS 8

Hubbell/Donohue - RD 8
Chock/Bates FD 10


Final Standings

GOLD: OAR: 69 (Dmitri Aliev, Artur Danielian, Alena Kostornaia, Kamila Valieva, Aleksandra Boiikova/Dmitri Kozlovskii, Victoria Sinitsina/Nikita Katsalapov, Alexandra
Stepanova/Ivan Bukin)
SILVER: USA: 65 (Nathan Chen, Vincent Zhou, Mariah Bell, Alysa Liu, Ashley Cain/Timothy LeDuc, Jessica Calalang/Brian Johnson,Madison Chock/Evan Bates, Madison
Hubbell/Zachary Donohue) ...

OWG team event rules for 2022 do not allow these choices for Team OAR and Team USA.

In principle, the skaters/couples competing in the Free Skating must be the same as those having competed in the Short Program/Rhythm Dance, however each Team has the option to replace up to two (2) entries (two Single Skaters or one Single Skater (Woman or Man) plus one couple (Pair Skating or Ice Dance) or both the Pair Skating and Ice Dance Couples) between the Short Program/Rhythm Dance and the Free Skating/Free Dance provided such qualified skaters/couple is part of the accredited delegation on site of the OWG.

https://www.isu.org/docman-document...tion-systems-3/22994-figure-skating-v1-0/file (p. 10)​

It is the same restriction that was in effect in 2014 and 2018.

 

[dancelion21]

I think that the US is going to split ice dance between Hubbell/Donohue and Chock/Bates because both teams are strong in different areas (rhythm dance for H/D and free dance for C/B) and because it's quite clear that both teams are dying for an Olympic medal. USFSA may have some interest to finally clear the log jam in ice dance by encouraging both teams to retire after the 2022 Olympics by placating them both with an Olympic medal. It's not the individual medal that the teams are hoping for, but there's definitely not going to be room for both top American teams on the podium in 2022 Olympics, and USFSA probably doesn't want one of these teams to go for ANOTHER Olympic cycle.
I think that Nathan will skate both the short and free skate if it's clear that the US can challenge Russia for the gold medal. Basically, if the US pairs get more consistent and better world placements in the next two years, then the US can seriously challenge Russia. That's a possibility, since Calalang/Johnson are looking stronger and Alexa split with Chris, so she could get a strong partner, but it's US pairs, so I wouldn't hold my breath. Similarly, Alysa will probably be the top choice for short and free programs, and she would skate if the US could really challenge Russia.
I think that the Team event is a good idea since we see federations developing their talent in all disciplines. Notably, China has been investing in ice dance and ladies, and it's starting to pay dividends with how well Wang/Liu have been doing.

 

[StitchMonkey]

I am expecting China to really give it their all to try to get on the team podium. Home country Olympics, and they do have a shot at a team medal. Would be nice to see someone new on the podium.

For the USA. I do agree (and hope!) that they split Ice Dance. H/D and C/B are more than deserving of the chance. We should be proud of our ice dancers and splitting them is the least we could do to show support.

For ladies and men... i have no idea. I actually wonder if Nathan will skip the team event and save for the individual gold.
I doubt Alyssa will do both events, but I suspect she will do one.

I could see Jason Brown doing both the short and the long. He is such a team player i could see him being willing to do both... not sure Vincent or Nathan would be willing to do both.

 

[Colonel Green]

I am expecting China to really give it their all to try to get on the team podium. Home country Olympics, and they do have a shot at a team medal. Would be nice to see someone new on the podium.

I think China's key decisions regarding the team event will be determined by what their odds look like going in. In particular, the decision whether to commit Sui & Han to do at least one program at the risk of affecting their chances at gold in pairs will be very consequential.

Though the decision about Jin, conversely, unfortunately appears to be getting easier over time, just because Boyang has not been shaping up to be a strong contender for a men's event medal at this point.

 

[Dreamer57]

I think that the US is going to split ice dance between Hubbell/Donohue and Chock/Bates because both teams are strong in different areas (rhythm dance for H/D and free dance for C/B) and because it's quite clear that both teams are dying for an Olympic medal. USFSA may have some interest to finally clear the log jam in ice dance by encouraging both teams to retire after the 2022 Olympics by placating them both with an Olympic medal. It's not the individual medal that the teams are hoping for, but there's definitely not going to be room for both top American teams on the podium in 2022 Olympics, and USFSA probably doesn't want one of these teams to go for ANOTHER Olympic cycle.

I am expecting China to really give it their all to try to get on the team podium. Home country Olympics, and they do have a shot at a team medal. Would be nice to see someone new on the podium.

For the USA. I do agree (and hope!) that they split Ice Dance. H/D and C/B are more than deserving of the chance. We should be proud of our ice dancers and splitting them is the least we could do to show support.

For ladies and men... i have no idea. I actually wonder if Nathan will skip the team event and save for the individual gold.
I doubt Alyssa will do both events, but I suspect she will do one.

I could see Jason Brown doing both the short and the long. He is such a team player i could see him being willing to do both... not sure Vincent or Nathan would be willing to do both.

I still don't understand why H/D didn't do the team event in 2018. Weren't they national champions going into Pyeongchang?

I would like for both H/D and C/B to win an Olympic medal. But I feel like the US would rather have two entries for singles like they did last time.
I reckon Nathan would be a definite for the short program and then surely they would want to give Jason or Vincent the opportunity to skate the free. It would be a lot of pressure on Alysa's first senior season so wouldn't they rather share the experience with someone like Mariah or Bradie?

In terms of countries qualifying for the actual event I would really like Australia to make it next time (please find a pair! ) plus I also think that Georgia and Ukraine could put together good teams by 2022.

 

[Colonel Green]

I still don't understand why H/D didn't do the team event in 2018. Weren't they national champions going into Pyeongchang?

Because the USFS went with the Shibutanis on the basis that their international results were much better to that point.

It would be a lot of pressure on Alysa's first senior season so wouldn't they rather share the experience with someone like Mariah or Bradie?

They'd want whoever they thought had the firepower to bring the best results. Assuming Alysa still had her quads and triple Axels and the others didn't, that would be her. However, it's less clear that Liu would want to do both programs, and there's a cap on how many replacements the US can have, so assuming (I think correctly) that Nathan will not do the free skate, there's only one other discipline where substitution is allowed.

That, in fact, would weigh against splitting the dance teams, because if they wanted to use Liu for one program but she didn't want to do both, then that would necessitate using up the second replacement in ladies.

 

[StitchMonkey]

I still don't understand why H/D didn't do the team event in 2018. Weren't they national champions going into Pyeongchang?

Yes but I think they were actually 2nd in both segments. So that did not inspire confidence.

On top of that there was some major hype trying going behind Adam and Mirai. I think using those two it was fair to give the gold medalists a shot.

The Shibs were on the world podium for the last two years in fairness. I would have loved to see H/D, but I also think the Shibs had earned their spot internationally.

 

[Tahuu]

They'd want whoever they thought had the firepower to bring the best results. Assuming Alysa still had her quads and triple Axels and the others didn't, that would be her. However, it's less clear that Liu would want to do both programs, and there's a cap on how many replacements the US can have, so assuming (I think correctly) that Nathan will not do the free skate, there's only one other discipline where substitution is allowed.

That, in fact, would weigh against splitting the dance teams, because if they wanted to use Liu for one program but she didn't want to do both, then that would necessitate using up the second replacement in ladies.

It may not be up to Liu to decide if she wants to do one program but not both. USFS first ranks the disciplines based on their performances at 2021-22 tiered competitions and then allows the top skaters of the top ranked disciplines to choose if they want to participate in none, one or both programs in the team event. If the current trends continue, I think the men and ice dance may rank higher than the ladies and pairs, and thus have priority over the latters. If the men and dance would choose to split their SP/RD and FS/FD, one lady and one pairs will have to do both SP and FS. If there is a potential chance for a team gold, the top skaters and teams in all four disciplines may opt to do both programs to maximize their points total.

 

[NaVi]

This will be an extremely interesting event. It'll be Russia vs US for Gold-Silver and I think they're about evenly matched. And then Canada-China-France(depending on Cipres)-Italy-Japan vying for Bronze. And the competition to qualify should be interesting. Georgia and Germany with ok-ish skaters in every discipline.... and then South Korea, Finland, and Ukraine that are missing a good pair team but still might make it over Georgia and Germany. I don't think Israel is going to make it.

Those vying for Bronze seem especially vulnerable to a singe person getting an injury taking them out of the running.

It'll be interesting to see if we see any un-retirements from Canada to give themselves a better chance to earn bronze.

I've liked all the Olympic team events thus far, but the 2018 one would have been much better had Kolyada not bombed the SP which pretty much gave Canada the Gold early.... and had Italy stayed in the hunt for Bronze later.

 

[noskates]

Anything can happen in the next 2 years. I think it's wayyyyy too early to even speculate about the '22 Olys.

 

[heartyxo]

I agree that both H/D and C/B are deserving of the team event and I hope they split it. In Pyeongchang it was almost a given that an American team would get bronze in the individual event but there's more teams up there now and it's not guaranteed that either of them will get an individual medal.

I think it was fine for the Shibs to do both programs in Pyeongchang and they fairly chose to, although until the Olympics their FD had been the weakest of the 3. H/D were generally 2nd in both programs with C/B winning the FD at both the GPF and Nats, so C/B would have likely been subbed in if the Shibs didn't want to do it. Although Madi was pretty injured at that point so it probably wouldn't have been a great idea.

 

[Colonel Green]

Anything can happen in the next 2 years. I think it's wayyyyy too early to even speculate about the '22 Olys.

It's too early to act like the medals are already decided (though Russia's gold medal position is in pretty good shape), but by the halfway point in the quad the general contours are taking shape. Anybody can get injured at any time and how people actually perform on the day in unknowable until that day (remember Chan, Chen and Kolyada competing to see who could sabotage their team's chances most, with Kolyada "winning"), but in a lot of cases you can make very good guesses as to who will be competing.

Some fields are more unsettled than others. I'd feel reasonably confident guessing that the Canadian team will have KMT/Marinaro and Gilles/Poirier doing both programs, but the singles entries are wide open.

It may not be up to Liu to decide if she wants to do one program but not both. USFS first ranks the disciplines based on their performances at 2021-22 tiered competitions and then allows the top skaters of the top ranked disciplines to choose if they want to participate in none, one or both programs in the team event. If the current trends continue, I think the men and ice dance may rank higher than the ladies and pairs, and thus have priority over the latters. If the men and dance would choose to split their SP/RD and FS/FD, one lady and one pairs will have to do both SP and FS. If there is a potential chance for a team gold, the top skaters and teams in all four disciplines may opt to do both programs to maximize their points total.

If that's the selection process the USFS uses (and genuinely sticks to, rather the nudging people behind the scenes), then I can't imagine the US splits its dance teams. As the Shibs demonstrated, there are clear tactical advantages to monopolizing the team event.