2026 Olympic Team Event Qualifying Outlook

[CrazyKittenLady]

now that you mention them, i admit that i haven't made a point of watching them. I am a bad figure skater fan.

Lol, there simply isn't enough time to watch all of them.
Roman Sadovsky for example was completely new to me this season. I guess I'm also a bad figure skating fan.

 

[lariko]

Yes, there are also ice dancers Kuznetsova and Kolosovskyi who came 29th at worlds this year.
The country has been a member since 1993, maybe there was a rink which has since closed down?

Apparently, yes. I looked it up, and the article says that in the last days of Soviet Union, they built a big athletic complex in Baku, that included the ice rink. After a few years, it could not be maintained as an ice rink. Despite renovations to the complex itself, the rink was never restored. Or at least wasn’t during the time of the article being published in 2015 or something.

 

[lariko]

Lol, there simply isn't enough time to watch all of them.
Roman Sadovsky for example was completely new to me this season. I guess I'm also a bad figure skating fan.

Now I feel like a no-lifer because I remember Litvintzev since juniors and actively cheered for Sadovsky since NHK before the pandemic.

 

[Ruthypegs]

What a great idea for a thread! It may be wishful thinking, but I'm hoping GB might be in a position to qualify for the team event by 2026. There are some really good skaters coming up.

BTW, if you're able to access BBC Iplayer, check out the 8 part documentary "Freeze" about British skaters - definitely worth a watch!

 

[lariko]

Tbh, I am not sure that Germany would fall out of competition as the OP suggests. They have some promising juniors or freshly seniors in all disciplines if memory serves. So imo they could fortify their position if they are interested.

 

[4everchan]

Tbh, I am not sure that Germany would fall out of competition as the OP suggests. They have some promising juniors or freshly seniors in all disciplines if memory serves. So imo they could fortify their position if they are interested.

totally agree with this. Germany has almost always managed to have skaters in all disciplines. Right now, it doesn't have a strong contender in any discipline unlike recent years with pairs... but there is talent and promising skaters are coming strong. Let's keep in mind that the field will probably almost always have USA, Canada, Japan and China + Russia (if allowed)... so there are 5 spots I would say that France (I think this year was a fluke... France has good skaters, just bad circumstances this time around) , Italy and Germany would probably almost always be front runners for those. Italy is a given since the games will be in Italy so their spot is safe.
So in most years, it would mean that the last 2 spots are up for grabs....

 

[karne]

Australia - Australia has 2 pair teams with an male partner from Australia and a female partner from Russia and there is a good chance there will be at least one Olympic qualifier. Brendan Kerry can be off and on. Because of injury that kept him out of 2021 Worlds and a bad skate at Nebelhorn he barely qualified for the Olympics where he came in 17th place. Kailani Craine was the last qualifier for the Olympics and that's about representative for where she stands against her competitors.

Holly Harris/Jason Chan train in Montreal and seem right at the edge of being able to qualify for the Olympics.

Jonathan Guerreiro is an Australian citizen and if he and Tiffany Zahorski were to switch it would likely be a placement improvement over Harris/Chan.

Brendan is 27, and carried a serious leg injury through this season. He has also been representing Australia internationally since he was sixteen and has been to three Olympics. I would not be surprised if he hangs on long enough to skate before his family and friends at 4CC, but I do not expect him to continue beyond next season, and certainly not a whole quad.

Though Kailani's list of injuries is not as extensive and she is younger, I also have doubts about her continuing another quad. Another couple of years, certainly.

If they are not "replaced" then we would be screwed anyway, even if our dancers skate well and our pairs skate well, as we would only have two disciplines, not three.

And besides, four years is a very long time. I recall being told many times - including on this forum - when venting about the ISU's stupid way of counting the ranking points, or about Krasnopolski and his latest disposable partner - "What's the big deal? Australia will make the team event in 2022, with Brendan, and Kailani, and Katia and Harley, for sure!"

 

[lariko]

totally agree with this. Germany has almost always managed to have skaters in all disciplines. Right now, it doesn't have a strong contender in any discipline unlike recent years with pairs... but there is talent and promising skaters are coming strong. Let's keep in mind that the field will probably almost always have USA, Canada, Japan and China + Russia (if allowed)... so there are 5 spots I would say that France (I think this year was a fluke... France has good skaters, just bad circumstances this time around) , Italy and Germany would probably almost always be front runners for those. Italy is a given since the games will be in Italy so their spot is safe.
So in most years, it would mean that the last 2 spots are up for grabs....

Honestly, I feel Germany has a stronger position than France from what I was watching, but it's just my impressions.

 

[4everchan]

Honestly, I feel Germany has a stronger position than France from what I was watching, but it's just my impressions.

France has the edge in ice dance and men. Germany in women and pairs....

Both teams : we do not know who will retire ... i don't expect all the top skaters to be back in 4 years, especially Schott, German pair, French dance.

 

[lariko]

France has the edge in ice dance and men. Germany in women and pairs....

Both teams : we do not know who will retire ... i don't expect all the top skaters to be back in 4 years, especially Schott, German pair, French dance.

German junior dance team though was more impressive than junior French... I am not sure about the upcoming and coming women. There was a nice junior pair in Germany and I have some hopes for them... France felt like "one of each" proposition so far. they didn't have a pair waiting in the wings, that's for sure.

 

[4everchan]

German junior dance team though was more impressive than junior French... I am not sure about the upcoming and coming women. There was a nice junior pair in Germany and I have some hopes for them... France felt like "one of each" proposition so far. they didn't have a pair waiting in the wings, that's for sure.

yes but the second senior team that wasn't at worlds because there was only one spot for France is much better. Lopareva Brissaud who placed 9th at senior Euros ahead of Mueller Dieck from Germany who placed 12th. The junior Germans would probably even lose to Demougeot Le Mercier, the number 3 ranked senior French team as well.

The French have to rebuild their pairs. Their best team at Euros was the Kovalevs who finished one rank behind the second best German team. I think the top German team is retiring.

I understand you looked into the recent junior worlds, which is fine but the dance teams will take a while to reach the top in seniors. For instance, I do not expect the two Canadian teams who medaled in dance at JWC to even make the world team until perhaps 2027.

 

[Sai Bon]

I don't think anyone expected Japan to be more than a rank outsider in the team event until the rapid rise of Riku and Ryuichi (how's that for alliteration?). But if they retired or got injured, Japan would be back in the same position as many other countries. I think it would take at least another quad before Japan develops a top 10 dance team. At least R&R's success has drawn public attention to pairs and maybe with more sponsorship, publicity, and tryout opportunities, a pairs programme will take off too.

 

[figureskatingandrainbows]

I don't think anyone expected Japan to be more than a rank outsider in the team event until the rapid rise of Riku and Ryuichi (how's that for alliteration?). But if they retired or got injured, Japan would be back in the same position as many other countries. I think it would take at least another quad before Japan develops a top 10 dance team. At least R&R's success has drawn public attention to pairs and maybe with more sponsorship, publicity, and tryout opportunities, a pairs programme will take off too.

I'm very excited about Nao Kida and Masaya Morita. They're fresh out of novice and placed 12th at JWorlds, so maybe in 4 years they'll be up there. As far as pairs go, Miyu and Shoya as well as a new team Haruna and Sumitada are both freshly paired up so hopefully in a few years they can take some of the pressure off RikuRyu knowing Japan isn't automatically screwed if they're injured. Plus they plan to stick around for eight more years.

 

[Sai Bon]

I'm very excited about Nao Kida and Masaya Morita. They're fresh out of novice and placed 12th at JWorlds, so maybe in 4 years they'll be up there. As far as pairs go, Miyu and Shoya as well as a new team Haruna and Sumitada are both freshly paired up so hopefully in a few years they can take some of the pressure off RikuRyu knowing Japan isn't automatically screwed if they're injured. Plus they plan to stick around for eight more years.

I hope R&R can stick around, but Ryuichi is 29 and even Riku will be 27-28 in eight years' time. Just saying that qualifying for the team event is hard without depth across at least 3 of the 4 disciplines.