Who will have a "break-through" year?

[Spun Silver]

O great Goldenskaters (to quote Arianne): it seems to me that the coming season is wonderfully rich in talented skaters, esp talented young ones. Is this an unually good year-in-prospect or is it always like this? I haven't been watching closely for long.

Honestly, I agree with almost all the hopes that have been voiced because there really are so many gifted people. There aren't many whose victories would irk me, and I won't harp on the negative by naming them.

I have just a bit of a special hope for Miki. I'm not sure why I like her as much as I do. It's something about her struggle and determination. There's also something about her arm-flinging that tickles me. And the last outfit I saw her in was just perfect (it was gray or silver on the top and bottom, white in the middle - Dreams on Ice). Why do others like her?

 

[Lanie]

The Kerrs! I'm just, you know, a teeny bit biased but I hope they get into more the 5th-8th rank at competitions than unfair 11ths and such.

I think the Canadian pairs will have a good season--both D&D and M&B who I both really enjoy.

Alissa I think already had her breakthrough year last year. Let's just hope she can conserve that energy!

 

[Lanie]

Miki (so glad she's no longer with Heis)
Katy (pink hummer aside, I like her skating
Emily (ta-da!!)
The Kerrs... ( I like them, I really like them)

Everyone else is there already, had their shot, played their hand or a has-been that never was...

Except Miki, she kind of bores me, but I like Katy and Emily. They're just so...fun and stuff.

 

[Lonewolf]

Although, I would like to see Sasha break out and do well at both Nationals and Worlds, I cannot get my hopes up here, for all I know she will opt out. So I am going to watch and hope that Kimmie can continue to grow into a true champion. I am also going to watch Alissa and Katy and hope they can have a good season as well.

 

[dancindiva03]

With the coaching change, I really think Melissa and Denis are going to soar to new heights... it's not just a hope, I'm really confident that this is the right move for them!

They're going to rock it out this season

I'm with Toni on this one! GOOOO Mellisa & Denis!

 

[R.D.]

I disagree. A breakout year in 2007 guarantees nothing. Susanna Poykio had a breakout year in 2005, not so good in 2006. Rochette had a breakout year, then went backwards at Worlds in Moscow. Weir broke out in 2004, but hasn't yet made it to the next step. After 2005, Savchenko/Skolkowy looked like Olympic medal contenders for Torino. Pang/Tong looked very strong after their World bronze medal; the next year they were overtaken by Zhang/Zhang. Buttle broke out in 2001 and then regressed; Matt Savoie was a GPF bronze medallist before falling off the judges' radar. Joubert finally broke his Worlds curse with a silver medal performance in Dortmund, and fell in 2005. Lindemann had a great year in 2004, and even for those who feel he was held up for his Worlds bronze by skating at home, the quality of his skating was certainly good enough for top five; the next year he plummeted and German Men had one spot for 2006. Likewise Julia Sebestyen -- European Champ in 2004 (and wuzzrobbed in Dortmund, IMO) and not even top 10 now. Chengjiang Li was a close fourth in 2003 -- wuzrobbed of bronze, again, in my opinion -- and he's been falling since. Chait/Saskhnovski and Zagorska/Siudek won World bronzes and have dropped since. Petrova/Tikhonov have been bounced up-down-up-down.

Very few skaters have a breakout year, like Kwan, Yagudin, and Plushenko and stay at or close to the top year after year after year, while others go up and down the scale, for whatever reason: injury, serendipity, illness, loss of favor, politics, payback, whatever.

By my original comment I was actually referring to the unpredictability of the question. (in other words, you simply can't tell who will have a breakout year, therefore analysis has to rely on your hopes.) But you're absolutely right. It's a roller-coaster for most skaters, and this is why I think Meissner will have a downhill ride this year. I seriously doubt we'll even see her on the worlds podium in 07. But that doesn't mean she can't come back in 08, 09 or even 10. The skater who dominates is one of a kind, but who knows? Almost all the skaters predicted to dominate have flopped. This includes but is not limited to Kostner and Ando. Now, this Yu-Na Kim girl I think is another case about to happen. Hyped to the hilt but fails to deliver. Of course, I could be wrong and she could be the One-Of-A-Kind. But I think the chance of that happening is like getting the number 23 on a roulette wheel.

 

[R.D.]

That said, though, I do hope the American skaters are successful. But that doesn't mean I expect it.

It would be nice to see Ando bounce back, and actually out of all the far-left-field predictions I would put the most stock in this happening than any other theory floating about right now (and that includes the return of veteran skaters). Just being bold.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

By my original comment I was actually referring to the unpredictability of the question. (in other words, you simply can't tell who will have a breakout year, therefore analysis has to rely on your hopes.) But you're absolutely right. It's a roller-coaster for most skaters, and this is why I think Meissner will have a downhill ride this year. I seriously doubt we'll even see her on the worlds podium in 07. But that doesn't mean she can't come back in 08, 09 or even 10. The skater who dominates is one of a kind, but who knows? Almost all the skaters predicted to dominate have flopped. This includes but is not limited to Kostner and Ando. Now, this Yu-Na Kim girl I think is another case about to happen. Hyped to the hilt but fails to deliver. Of course, I could be wrong and she could be the One-Of-A-Kind. But I think the chance of that happening is like getting the number 23 on a roulette wheel.

Do you think the same way in Basketball? Maybe you should get away from all Sports.

Joe

 

[nuge]

I'd really like Delobel/Shoenfelder to win medals this year as I don't think they have got what they deserved last two years.Frida was IMO a spectacular beautiful FD and was not rewarded.

 

[R.D.]

Do you think the same way in Basketball? Maybe you should get away from all Sports.

Team sports are different because of many factors in play that don't matter in individual events. At least IMO.

 

[Alsace]

Team sports are different because of many factors in play that don't matter in individual events. At least IMO.

Yeah, like you can remove the player whose having a slump and replace them with one who is in the zone.

 

[R.D.]

Yes, sort of...it's never THAT easy, though.

 

[La Rhumba]

I'd really like Delobel/Shoenfelder to win medals this year as I don't think they have got what they deserved last two years.Frida was IMO a spectacular beautiful FD and was not rewarded.

:agree:

I so agree nuge. Frida is a Classic, and their OD that season wasn't too shabby either - both cruelly undermarked.

:disapp:

Last season's Masquerade FD was a great follow up, and I enjoyed the Cuban feel of their Latin OD. Grossly undermarked throughout the season, from CD to FD this couple was, I'd put them above B/A overall every time.

We were hoping the Kerrs would 'make a breakthrough', so to speak, but many of the oldies occupying the top 10 positions in the icedance ranks have decided to stay one more season, so their progress may be stymied, as the next in line get their turn, as is the way of things in Dance.

I find the prospect of Gregory/Pethukov beating the Kerrs absurd. Melissa's appalling posture is on a par with Fraser's.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

The Kerr's are an outstanding Dance Team!! Their Original Dance in Calgary (a Scottish number) was priceless and nothing else in that competition would compare. But somehow this 'life's struggle passion' is always the winner and every team is now doing it. Every team is afraid to dance to an upbeat tune. One has to show suffering in the dance - not happiness.

Denkova and Stavisky are exceptions.

Joe

 

[La Rhumba]

Every team is afraid to dance to an upbeat tune. One has to show suffering in the dance - not happiness.

Joe

Yes, Joe, the Kerrs have always had upbeat, uptempo Freedances since they first teamed up together in 2000. Their choice of music is not always to everybody's taste though, and I honestly think some of the Judges didn't quite *get* the Scottish bagpipes last season unfortunately, cos they certainly deserved better in the CoP scores. :disagree:

 

[Matt]

In terms of American skaters, the most likely for a "breakout season" is Katy Taylor. I don't see her as going as far as a Worlds medal, but then a "breakout season" doesn't have to be that IMHO; it just needs to bring you to a certain level of prominence on the world stage and in the minds of the judges. It is possible to have several breakout seasons, interspersed with really horrible ones. Taylor, though, has the most consistency of the up-and-coming US women (you could argue Emily Hughes) and with her showing at the US Nats and 4CCs, you can see she is starting to put it together

I think Gedevanishvili is a definite international contender, especially now that TT is in her camp. Dunno what kind of GP assignments she'll get. If she can keep the stamina and get that gorgeous 3f/3toe of hers like breathing, she strikes me as a successor to Slutskaya

I actually hope Mao and Kim DON'T have breakout seasons, mostly b/c the judges and everyone else in the skating community thinks they're the greatest things to ever lace up a pair of skates, and are willing to give them hugely inflated marks right out of the gate. Yes, Mao has a 3axel and Kim has 3-3s, but in terms of artistry and basic skating, they have a long way to go; they're both not even 16 yet. As far as the breakout Asian female skater, that season already started for Yukari Nakano last year.

As far as breakout men, one word: Lysacek, especially when he doesn't two-foot the 4toe, which will be soon

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Good post, Matt! but I can not get on the Gedevanishvili bandwagon yet. I see too many flaws in her performance which similarly kept me from getting on Kostner bandwagon back when she made her splash at Euros.

In Eastern Europe, I don't think Martinova will have a breakout this year but to me she worth following - maybe 2008 season.

Joe

 

[Skye]

I actually hope Mao and Kim DON'T have breakout seasons, mostly b/c the judges and everyone else in the skating community thinks they're the greatest things to ever lace up a pair of skates, and are willing to give them hugely inflated marks right out of the gate. Yes, Mao has a 3axel and Kim has 3-3s, but in terms of artistry and basic skating, they have a long way to go; they're both not even 16 yet. As far as the breakout Asian female skater, that season already started for Yukari Nakano last year.

I do admit that sometimes young and upcoming skaters' marks can get inflated based on the potential rather than the actual performance. But as much as I truly hope Katy gets her pink hummer and adore Elene's spark on the ice, Mao and Yu-na don't even need a breakout season to win over those two 16 year olds at the present. At least that's what I think, and the judges and everyone else in the skating community seems to agree with me.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I do admit that sometimes young and upcoming skaters' marks can get inflated based on the potential rather than the actual performance. But as much as I truly hope Katy gets her pink hummer and adore Elene's spark on the ice, Mao and Yu-na don't even need a breakout season to win over those two 16 year olds at the present. At least that's what I think, and the judges and everyone else in the skating community seems to agree with me.

The four of them have not yet skated in the same competition, yet. When they do I'll join the skating community, perhaps.

 

[SeaniBu]

I spirt of "hope" I am hoping that Gedevanishvili, Meier, Kostner, Yukina and Savchenko/Szolkowy.

I the spirit of will, I believe Meissner, Cizsny, Taylor and Denkova/Staviyski

In the spirit of will "again," Suguri:yes:
IMO OC