Who's peaking?

[Figureskates]

In all honesty, being a meterologist, I think I have a better chance of predicting the up and coming Hurricane Season than who will make the Olympics.

I have some hunches but there are too many wild cards which many above have mentioned that make handicapping very, very difficult.

Maybe I should enter all the skaters' names into my weather models and see what they say

 

[clairecloutier]

I honestly think it's too soon to know who is peaking. We'll have a better idea after watching Grand Prix later this year, but even then it might be too soon to tell for sure.

I, personally, was so off this year in predicting who would peak for Worlds. Based on what happened at Europeans, U.S. Nationals, and Canadian Nationals, I thought that Michelle and Joannie would peak for Worlds, and that Irina, Sasha, and Carolina were already past their season peaks (or never at it, in Sasha's case). Turned out I was totally wrong! Irina rocked at Worlds, and Sasha and Carolina did quite well. Meanwhile, neither Michelle nor Joannie got on the podium!

So much for my predictions . . .

 

[Dee4707]

Does anyone know if Plushenko is doing the GP season? When I looked at the assignments he wasn't listed. If not, is that a good decision, especially this season?

Dee

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Does anyone know if Plushenko is doing the GP season? When I looked at the assignments he wasn't listed. If not, is that a good decision, especially this season?Dee

Dee - If you look at Cup of Russia, there is listed a TBA. I believe that is reserved for Evgeni. There may be some speculation about his knees.

In any case he is avoiding travelling. JMO

Joe

 

[soogar]

I think Klimkin will peak in time for the Olympics. Before his injury took him out of worlds 2004 and this season, he had made the podium at Euros. I too have read that he feels optimistic about this season and missing the season probably made him hungrier to skate well this season. I think he'll make the podium in the Olympics (preferably at top spot).

I think Eman will be the Canadian to peak at the Olympics and not Jeff. Eman's standings have been improving year after year and when you look at his performances, he is getting better at competing. He's fighting for his performances after a mistake verses giving up. Too many people are writing him off because he doesn't perform the way he is expected to perform, but you can't ignore progress.

I think Plush peaked in Dortmund and now he's on a downward spiral. Time will tell whether he can medal but I feel Ilia will be the top Russian in Torino.

I love Shizuka, but I have my doubts about her mental toughness. As a fan, it's depressing reading interviews where she is quoted as saying that she wish she had never won Worlds. I don't know what makes this girl tick because she is considerably more talented and polished than all of the other skaters yet this doesn't give her confidence (despite winning worlds). On the basis of her abilities, Shizuka should take it all but I don't believe this will happen to her.

 

[R.D.]

Just wondering Red Dog, why you think she is such a sure winner for Nationals.
This will be COP, so she will have to have upgraded her programs. And considering everyone feels Sasha is strong under COP, I hardly think Michelle has any kind of lock on the title. JMO.

-MK usually brings her A-game to Nationals. Only last year did she bring just her B-game, but it was enough to win.

-She has basically no competition. Her only formidable competitor can never get over the pressure of Nationals, and nobody else is even in her league.

-This is still the U.S. I don't think it matters what scoring system is used. They'll find some way to make MK win if they feel she deserves number ten. And I think it's all but happened. I don't think they'll let someone else win unless they have absolutely no choice. JMO though.

-Maybe MK doesn't necessarily have a lock on the title (I personally think she does though), but she definitely has the key.

 

[hockeyfan228]

I don't know what makes this girl tick because she is considerably more talented and polished than all of the other skaters yet this doesn't give her confidence (despite winning worlds).

I don't know what's so difficult to understand: for years she placed in the bottom half of the top 10 or below, with Suguri the clear Japanese favorite (two World bronzes) until Ando took the crown in 2004. After completing college in 2004, her parents told her that she was on her own to support her skating, and she decided that Worlds 2004 was going to be her last event, partly to play "big sister" to Ando in Dortmund and show her the ropes. Her mind was already out of competition, and she was ready to get on with the next phase of her life -- skating in shows mainly in Japan.

Worlds 2004 derailed that plan, and I suspect that had she defied the Japanese Federation, which pressured her to continue, those touring opportunities would have dried up.

 

[Doggygirl]

Nationals- no trouble here. She should blow away the competition here. Even if she falls she has this one in the bag. In order to win she needs to : Phone it in

ITA Red Dog. The biggest reason for that? See the thread about Visa's advertising plans for the Olys. MK would have to do a complete Zamboni in both programs for the USFSA not to make sure the all US judging panel gives this to her. (and those politics are NOT the fault of the skaters - so no disrespect for MK here - if Sasha had the Visa deal I'd feel the same way)

I hope I'm wrong. But like many of us here, I'm skeptical of the judging and financial motivations that sometimes seem more in play than the skaters performances.

I hope MK skates brilliantly at Nats because 1) I'll be there to see it and 2) so we don't risk a judging scandal before the Oly's even start.

DG

 

[mzheng]

Nationals- no trouble here. She should blow away the competition here. Even if she falls she has this one in the bag. In order to win she needs to : Phone it in

.

Completely disagree. She has neverever won National with a phoned it in performance.

 

[Mathman]

IMHO the judges at U.S. Nationals have hardly ever given us reason to speculate that financial or political motives overrode the performances. In the case of Michelle, we will never know to what extent the judges might have been willing to hold her up, because, as Red Dog says, she always creams the opposition without controversy.

The one time she lost was to Tara in 1997. But in that case both Michelle and Tara were being equally hyped, so when Michelle gave a bad SP, the judges had no particular temptation to cheat for her, if they had an inclination to do so.

There are some skaters who are fan favorites, and the audience always cries foul when the low marks come up. Jenny Kirk is an example, and possibly crowd-pleaser Bebe Liang is headed for that category.

But in these cases the judges do have specific criteria in mind, which the skaters in question consistently fall short of.

Visa will get its money's worth out of Michelle whatever happens at Nationals. I do no think there will be any arm-twisting or French judging.

USFS is one of the few national federations (the only one?) which says, whoever gets first, second and third at Nationals goes to worlds and the Olympics. All the other federatiuons have weasel words in their by-laws that give the federation the right to wheel and deal behind closed doors after the competitions are over.

Mathman (*removes his rose-colored glasses*)

 

[Doggygirl]

IMHO the judges at U.S. Nationals have hardly ever given us reason to speculate that financial or political motives overrode the performances. In the case of Michelle, we will never know to what extent the judges might have been willing to hold her up, because, as Red Dog says, she always creams the opposition without controversy.


Mathman (*removes his rose-colored glasses*)

And while I have my skeptical side, my fondest hope is that the skeptic in me is completely unfounded. ITA with your comments. And what I'm really saying is that I hope it stays that way - non-controversial.

According to the linked VISA article, the campaign will start in Q4 - before the FS Oly team is officially decided at nationals. I HOPE the tone of the ads is more along the lines of "what has it meant to you to be on previous Oly teams..." more than "what does the 2006 Oly's mean to you." A fine line there.

I would be shocked if Sasha and MK don't make the team. But for everyone's sake, I hope they both earn it on the day of the competition so there is no controversy.

DG

 

[attyfan]

IIRC, there was some questioning after Kwan's win in 1999 at Nats because she signed a Chevy deal, and Chevy was sponsoring Nats. The fact that Kwan (a) was the best and (b) her closest competitor (NNN) was not age eligible didn't stop the bad press. IMHO, though, Kwan's drive at Nats is due (in part) to 1994. Tara, Sarah, Sasha went to Nats as the reigning world medalist, secure in the knowledge that the USFSA would want them on the Oly team no matter what. Michelle learned in '94 that the only sure way of getting to go to Olys is to win Nats.

 

[Mathman]

OT, but thanks for the walk down memory lane to the 1999 Nationals. I was watching Naomi Nari Nam's totally fantastic and awesome SP on TV, and I remember yelling out to my wife, "Honey, you've got to come see this -- some little girl is out here beating Michelle Kwan!"

MM

 

[mzheng]

(b) her closest competitor (NNN) was not age eligible didn't stop the bad press.

And at the time she diddn't even have 5 triples yet. So I read.

Now the anthor closest was 2000 National where Sasha placed 2nd. Some said Sasha should've won, despite the TT's comments on what Sasha's skating and edges like before she went to her after 2002, you'd think Skating Fans (not media) should've known.

As far as US Nationals went, Kwan won every one fair and square. I have no shame on claim this even I'm a Kwan fan.

 

[dwiggin3]

I generally don't get into the men, so I'll pass them buy on this one.

But the ladies are a different story.....

First, I don't understand the hype about Kostner. I've seen her skate and at times, there is something, but most times, there is nothing. She reminds me a bit of Hughes with that gawky/lanky look to her. But I don’t see the potential. Plus, Hughes won her gold with a truly brilliant program when everyone else was sub-par. I guess I just don’t see it happening with Kostner. Plus, I think she made the podium at worlds last year because some other significant players fumbled. I’m not certain that her placement there was or is a true indicator of her “placement” on the world stage. hwell:

Second, other than Shiz and Fumie, I really don’t think the other Japanese ladies have that much. It’s almost at if each skater only has a portion of the package. One can jump, but has no musicality or choreography. The other is not so great with the jumps but has great musicality. It’s almost as if you could piece together a great skater out of 2 or 3 of the current Japanese ladies. Frankly, I’ve don’t understand the hype and really never have with exception to Shiz….I’m even sometimes uncertain about Fumie but I think that’s just a preference thing. :scratch:

Unfortunately, I think Shiz’s confidence is blown. I’m not sure what did it and it’s a shame she’s wished she never one Worlds. Fumie, well, I’m not sure what the issue is with her. :scratch:

Realistically, I think of the “shoe-in’s” for making their respective Olympic teams, It’s all between Cohen, Slute and Kwan. Now, we don’t know who all from the US and Russia will make it but both countries have ladies who have brought down the house with great skates (Sokolova at Worlds in DC, and although I’m not a great fan, BeBe). So, they are dark-horses. But I’d really emphasize that last statement.

Some of the US ladies whose names have been thrown around like BeBe, Hughes, Kimmie, Kirk have had nice skates at Nationals, but I don’t recall them either having great skates internationally (either consistently or both a LP and SP) or having the goods to beat Kwan, Cohen and Slute on a regular basis. But then again, all it takes is one good competition…..look at Hughes (who while won a number of other competitions, had the skates of her life in SLC) :agree:

I do think the podium is wide open - but realistically, I think the three main players will still continue to be Cohen, Kwan and Slute (not necessarily in that order) :sheesh: :sheesh:

JMHO.
Darby

 

[soogar]

I don't know what's so difficult to understand: for years she placed in the bottom half of the top 10 or below, with Suguri the clear Japanese favorite (two World bronzes) until Ando took the crown in 2004. After completing college in 2004, her parents told her that she was on her own to support her skating, and she decided that Worlds 2004 was going to be her last event, partly to play "big sister" to Ando in Dortmund and show her the ropes. Her mind was already out of competition, and she was ready to get on with the next phase of her life -- skating in shows mainly in Japan.

Worlds 2004 derailed that plan, and I suspect that had she defied the Japanese Federation, which pressured her to continue, those touring opportunities would have dried up.

I don't get any of this... So why would Shizuka make the switch to TT if she was only interested in being Ando's "big sister"? She could have just stayed with Callaghan and finished out the season. As for her supporting her own skating after college, I would bet that the Japanese Federation was supporting these coaching changes instead of Shizuka.

The impression I get is that Fumie Suguri is not highly regarded by her federation. The Japanese federation is pushing Ando and Arakawa over Fumie. Despite Fumie's 2 bronze medals, it doesn't seem that she is regarded as a favorite.

I don't get how a skater's mind can be elsewhere after winning a world championship. I can see Shizuka being tired of competing because she wasn't winning anything, but you would think that winning a world championship so close to the Olympics would light a fire in her belly. I don't know... maybe TT will invest in a sports psychologist to help Shiz regain some confidence and focus. Surely Shizuka is aware of her talent.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

And while I have my skeptical side, my fondest hope is that the skeptic in me is completely unfounded. ITA with your comments. And what I'm really saying is that I hope it stays that way - non-controversial.

According to the linked VISA article, the campaign will start in Q4 - before the FS Oly team is officially decided at nationals. I HOPE the tone of the ads is more along the lines of "what has it meant to you to be on previous Oly teams..." more than "what does the 2006 Oly's mean to you." A fine line there.

I would be shocked if Sasha and MK don't make the team. But for everyone's sake, I hope they both earn it on the day of the competition so there is no controversy.

DG

DG - I can't imagine the Russian Federation, the Japanese Federation and the American Asssociation not sending their 'star' skaters. It's easy enough to explain a problem after the fact (just in case some young whipper snapper like Taylor gets the bronze.) I believe the federations have that right to select their team with Nats being a factor but not the sole factor.

In all cases, it is not, repeat-not an international competition!

for the Russians it is pretty easy and will be Irina, Elena and Viktoria.
for he Japanese it is Shiz, Ando, and who?
for the Americans it is Sasha, Michelle and , who?


Soogar - I think the Japanese Federation arranged the change of Shizuka toTT.

Joe

 

[hockeyfan228]

I don't get any of this... So why would Shizuka make the switch to TT if she was only interested in being Ando's "big sister"? She could have just stayed with Callaghan and finished out the season. As for her supporting her own skating after college, I would bet that the Japanese Federation was supporting these coaching changes instead of Shizuka.

The Federation drives coaching changes, not the skater. That question needs to be asked of them. Arakawa went wherever they told her to go. The Japanese Federation faxed Callahan with the coaching change. Perhaps they faxed her as well.

The impression I get is that Fumie Suguri is not highly regarded by her federation. The Japanese federation is pushing Ando and Arakawa over Fumie. Despite Fumie's 2 bronze medals, it doesn't seem that she is regarded as a favorite.

And Cohen has two World silver medals to Kwan's single bronze in the last two years, despite what the US Federation says. Suguri placed higher than Ando in Moscow, regardless of what the Japanese Federation says.

I don't get how a skater's mind can be elsewhere after winning a world championship. I can see Shizuka being tired of competing because she wasn't winning anything, but you would think that winning a world championship so close to the Olympics would light a fire in her belly.

Two years away is two long years of training and competition for which she wasn't ready or interested. Plenty of skaters have taken the World Championship and run, particularly those who'd competed at the senior level for over a decade. Why not Arakawa? Why should anyone assume that she would repeat, particularly when she gave such a superior performance in the LP and lost three first place ordinals to Cohen and the same three plus one to Kwan, who both had sub-par performances in Dortmund? I think the question is, why torture her into staying on, when Ando looked about to jump on the podium after 2004 and was being touted as a pre-Olympic favorite, and Arakawa was ready to step aside gracefully for the next generation? They could have sent Ando to Tarasova in her place.

 

[boggartlaura]

I think Eman will be the Canadian to peak at the Olympics and not Jeff. Eman's standings have been improving year after year and when you look at his performances, he is getting better at competing. He's fighting for his performances after a mistake verses giving up. Too many people are writing him off because he doesn't perform the way he is expected to perform, but you can't ignore progress. .

Sandhu's placements have been barely improving at all. After a couple of 8th place finishes, he finished 7th this past season, and that was without Plush. That's not improvement at all.

 

[BittyBug]

USFS is one of the few national federations (the only one?) which says, whoever gets first, second and third at Nationals goes to worlds and the Olympics. All the other federatiuons have weasel words in their by-laws that give the federation the right to wheel and deal behind closed doors after the competitions are over.

While in general, the medalists at Nationals have also been the US representatives on World and Olympic teams, only the National Champions in each discipline are guaranteed a spot. Mark Mitchell is a case in point - he was the 92 US Bronze Medalist, but the USFSA bumped him from the Olympic team in favor of Todd Elderedge, who missed Nationals due to an injury.

Here are the rules (see Item #23) - I think they qualify as weasel words:

http://www.usfigureskating.org/Story.asp?id=27717