Will we have the first underaged champion?!?!

[Phobiamaster856]

Would this be the first year where we have a national champion that can't go to worlds?!?!

 

[essence_of_soy]

Tradition seems to place the new rising star second to the current champion. Usually, with the aim of scaring the current title holder into raising their game.

For example, Tiffany Chin won the short and the free at the 1984 US Nationals. At that competition, Sumners was only doing a double axel in her combination to Chin's triple toe.

 

[jsteam4501s]

Unfortunately, due to the :scowl::scowl:age rule, it is entirely possible.

 

[pista04]

huh

^yeaah....no rule to competing nationally according to age, so Zhang could take the national championships with two solid skates.

Will it happen, Zhang overtaking Meissner? No. But will we have an underage champion? I believe so...McLaughlin/Brubaker, depending on how last years podium comes back from their injuries.

 

[flying camel]

Yes, I can see it happening. Zhang is better then Kimmie everywhere except maybe speed. Kimmie will have to fight for her title. At least it will be exciting.

 

[Tinymavy15]

i think that caroline could easily win this event, but they will give it to kimmie, becasue USFSA would not want to deal with tha controvesy of caroline not being able to go.

 

[flying camel]

Yea, but even if Caroline places second she still can't go.

 

[feraina]

I hope Caroline and Kimmie (and all the other girls) will get the scores and placements they deserve, based on how they skate at National's (not earlier in the season, or what they are eligible or not eligible for later in the season). That's what's fairest for the skaters, and also wisest for USFSA in the long term -- if they want to retain/improve credibility for judging.

It'd be wonderful if Caroline can take the senior title on her first try. But I'm just so happy for her stellar season so far regardless of National's, not just in terms of her GP results, but also in terms of her growth as a skater. She improved so many aspects of her skating: she mastered a 3-3 in record time, she improved her spirals in her back (higher) and free leg position (less sideways in the split), she added distance and height to her 3F and 3T and improved the entry to both, she added speed to her sit and camel spins, she skates now with more speed and more personality (esp. in the SP), and she's growing into a confident young lady with spades of presence (see her GPF exhibition). She's undergoing a transformation from a "cute" skater to a "beautiful" skater; not long ago commentator were gushing over how "adorable" she was, by next season I think they'll be exclaiming "gorgeous." :yes: Plus she's still inventing new spin and spiral positions left and right. It's very exciting to see a young skater maturing and improving right in front of our eyes!

 

[jsteam4501s]

I agree with the above, and one reason that hasn't been mentioned is that if Caroline does win the competition, maybe the public uproar that will certainly be highly publicized on major news channels will be enough to pressure the ISU to consider completely eliminating the minimum age rule. It wouldn't retroactively help Caroline, but at least by the 2010 Olympics the change would be in effect.

 

[visaliakid]

Anyone who thinks that Caroline or Mirai winning nationals would cause a national uproar, either in the media or the public and that in turn would pressure Emperor Ottavio and the ISU council to reverse their age policy for attending Worlds, is living in never-never-land!: They didn't do it for Mao, and won't for our 14 year-olds!

rolleye:

 

[merrybari]

On any given day, there are several ladies who can make the podium, but I think Caroline has demonstrated the most consistency and overall improvement of any of them so has a real shot at the top spot.

I hope her age does NOT keep her from getting gold if her skating merits it. The result should be determined by the skating not by age eligibility for Worlds.

As I see it, this is a building time between Olympics. Anything is possible - I wouldn't count our current senior ladies out. Sure they've had a rough time in the Grand Prix season, but they also have experience on their side. Plus determination to do better and I suspect they've been training well since the GPF.

Look at Alissa last year - from 5th, if I recall correctly, to make the podium. I for one would love to see her repeat on the podium. She's a lovely skater - I hope she can get over her nerves. Emily brings such joy to her performances and Kimmie is a fierce competitor. I suspect her competitive juices are at full throttle.

Hope they all skate their best and are judged accordingly. I'm thrilled I'll be there to see what happens in person!

 

[feraina]

Anyone who thinks that Caroline or Mirai winning nationals would cause a national uproar, either in the media or the public and that in turn would pressure Emperor Ottavio and the ISU council to reverse their age policy for attending Worlds, is living in never-never-land!: They didn't do it for Mao, and won't for our 14 year-olds!

That's true, but if I remember correctly, the Japanese federation didn't officially lodge an appeal -- and that was criticized in some parts. Maybe there were unofficial discussions (probably), and they were pretty much told it would be futile... But I think the situation is somewhat different today than two years ago. At the time, there were still lots of stars around: Sasha, Irina, even Michelle was going to attend the Olympics, and Japan had Shizuka & Miki. Ratings were going to be high in Japan, US & Russia without Mao. But now it's different, TV ratings are in serious decline, US ladies lack a serious medal contender on the world stage (among age-eligibles). ISU is finding it hard to get a broadcasting partner in the US and in Canada. Russia, too, has no star ladies skater, their brightest hope seems to be an 11-year-old little girl who competed in Senior Nationals this week (highest TES in the LP). Japan might be a little bitter, since Mao didn't benefit, but their best junoir-level skater, Yuki Nishino, will be in the same boat next year as Caroline this year, if she chooses to move up to GP (she qualifies for at least one GP from her JGPF bronze).

Cinquanta can't defy ALL the major federations pushing for it together.

I think it makes all the sense in the world to lower the age limit to 14 in all ISU championships, just like in the GP series. History shows that rivalries make competitions more exciting, ratings higher, and the athletes themselves better skaters. It's time ISU realizes that eliminating competition from the youngsters can only contribute to a further decline of the sport.

I mean, yeah, Oksana, Tara, and Sarah all left the scene quickly after their OGM, but those Olympics generated a lot of enthusiasm, everyone wanted to see how the youngsters were going to fare against the veterans. In the last Olympics, there were only veterans, no fearless teenagers like Mao or Yu-na (perhaps Yu-na would've moved up too, if not for the age limit) who would go for all the hard jumps, and therefore push the top guns to bring their best too (e.g. Shizuka, Irina, maybe even Sasha). Don't forget Mao lost to Yu-na at the JW that year. It would've been a much more exciting Olympics if one or both of them had landed on the podium, and even more so if one of them skated away with the gold. Maybe that one skater would've quit like the many previous olympic champions, but not both. Besides, if Mao had won gold, I bet she wouldn't have quit. She loved skating too much, and she had no major injuries.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Anyone who thinks that Caroline or Mirai winning nationals would cause a national uproar, either in the media or the public and that in turn would pressure Emperor Ottavio and the ISU council to reverse their age policy for attending Worlds, is living in never-never-land!: They didn't do it for Mao, and won't for our 14 year-olds!

rolleye:

What would be the reason he did not ok the talented Mao to skate in Calgary?
I can understand the Olys which he is not in charge of but Worlds you think he will make an exception for the American youngsters?

Joe

 

[Eddie Lee]

i think that caroline could easily win this event, but they will give it to kimmie, becasue USFSA would not want to deal with tha controvesy of caroline not being able to go.

If this had been last year, I would agree with you wholeheartedly. But recently I sense a cooling-off-to-Kimmie by the USFS. She is not being pushed excessively in the National ads. Or maybe it is my imagination. But is it possible that USFS is already looking ahead? Could it be that a 2008 National gold win by a spectacular, but age-ineligible junior could begin an early publicity push by USFS for the 2009 Nationals and Worlds and carry into the Olympics? Wouldn't it create a great deal of excitement and controversy? And wouldn't that generate public interest in general? For my money, the idea that Caroline is ineligible to face Mao and Yu-Na at 2008 World's so soon after Nationals could be whipped up to a frenzy and reap great interest for the 2009 World's showdown--the important one! Especially if she were the 2008 National gold medalist! (And beating a former World champion in the process?) Mao certainly generated publicity with her Olympic ineligibility--especially after her GP Final gold in the 2005-6 year. Food for thought? I think so.

P. S. Personally I hope there are no back-room shenanigans. I hope the skaters are placed fairly whether age-eligible for Worlds 2008 or not. But somehow I'm thinking Zhang might just get through this Nationals with two clean programs. If so, then where would she be placed if Kimmie has a fall or pops a jump or so?

 

[Wrlmy]

Does anyone know how Kimmie's doing? If she's still in the shape she was at GPF, there's no senior lady, maybe aside from Ashley, who can overtake Caroline or Mirai. Since all the ladies AFAIK suffer from the wrong edge deduction, Caroline and Rachael have the strongest jump contents, and Caroline should be getting higher PCS than Rachael for sure.

 

[attyfan]

What would be the reason he did not ok the talented Mao to skate in Calgary?
I can understand the Olys which he is not in charge of but Worlds you think he will make an exception for the American youngsters?

Joe

As I understand it, Korea relied on the age rule in deciding not to send Yu-Na to the event (the Karl Schaefer, I think) that is used to get spots at both Olys and Worlds for countries that didn't get any at the previous Worlds. The buzz about sending Mao didn't get widespread publicity (at least here in the US) until after the event -- so changing the rule would have been extremely unfair to Korea -- and that, in turn, gave a wonderful excuse to all the other federations to block any favors to Japan. Japan therefore, didn't ask for a waiver of the age rule.

I don't know if there would be a similar problem this year, in that I don't know of any other countries who relied on the age rule. So, the USFS could note that there was something in 2006 that lawyers call "estoppel" ("the rules couldn't be changed to accommodate Mao after Korea relied upon them") that may not exist at this time.

 

[feraina]

As I understand it, Korea relied on the age rule in deciding not to send Yu-Na to the event (the Karl Schaefer, I think) that is used to get spots at both Olys and Worlds for countries that didn't get any at the previous Worlds.

That's really interesting, I didn't know. Thanks for the information!

I think under these circumstances, US should petition Cinquanta to lower the ISU championship age limit to 14, to be in line with GP competitions; maybe also lower JGP/JW age limit to 12. Seems a bit weird anyway to only allow a one-year gap between JGP and GP age limits. Plus, US might get more of the major federations on board. Japan has Yuki Nishino, who's eligible for GP but not WC next year -- she seems to be their most promising junior skater by a long shot. Russia's major hope in ladies seems to be 11-year-old Elizaveta Tuktamysheva. I don't know when her b-day is, but she'd probably love to do JGP ASAP. China's best hope in ladies is a 12-year-old, who'd probably like to go to JW as well as JGP's next year. Plus both Russia & US have top pairs teams that are too young for WC. I think if all four major skating federations pushed for the rule change together, then it will happen.

Given someone like Caroline, who competed successfully on the GP series this year, just what is the rationale for keeping her out of the ISU championships?? (Or Mao, who was even more successful in the GP's two years ago.)

I think USFSA should talk to the other federations, and file the petition as soon as possible, instead of waiting until National's to see if the youngsters actually do well. I think regardless of how Caroline does, it is extremely likely that at least one of the age-ineligibles (Caroline, Mirai, Rachael) will get on the podium. If USFSA waits, maybe in the hope of minimizing confrontation with ISU and the other federations in case none of the youngsters delivers, then it risks running out of time to make a difference at this year's World's. Or even if they did manage it, the younger skaters will not have the maximal amount of training/preparation possible to prepare for the WC. Plus, doing it now will get the maximal number of skaters and their families/coaches on board, whereas doing it after National's will seem like favoritism toward the youngsters who place n the podium.

 

[chuckm]

It is far, far too late to petition for an age rule change to take effect this year.

Changes like that are major and have to be voted on by the ISU Congress. And even if such a measure was introduced, don't hold your breath for it to be passed. The big federations are the ones with the stables of promising young skaters, but there are far more little federations that aren't so blessed with talent. The little federations could see their chances of winning medals on the JGP disappear altogether if US, Japanese, Korean, German, Finnish and Russian girls could compete at 12.

I think the age rules should remain as they are, except that the GP events should exclude skaters ineligible for Senior ISU championships. Let the 14-year-olds skate in the "B" internationals, and leave it at that.

 

[Mathman]

That's true, but if I remember correctly, the Japanese federation didn't officially lodge an appeal -- and that was criticized in some parts.

What possible basis would such an appeal rest upon? That Japan had a real good underage skater and therefore they don't think the rule should apply to them?

I can understand the Olys which he is not in charge of but Worlds you think he will make an exception for the American youngsters?

What grounds could Cinquanta possibly concoct to justify making an exception for Mirai and Caroline?

Would we expect him to convene an emergency meeting of the ISU Council to set aside the rules that the ISU full membership Congress ratified last year?

 

[Tonichelle]

I think the age rules should remain as they are, except that the GP events should exclude skaters ineligible for Senior ISU championships. Let the 14-year-olds skate in the "B" internationals, and leave it at that.

Completely agree!