Sophomore Jinx?

[MalAssada]

So interesting... When one begins in Brazilian high school, one is a first year and graduates at the big third (very common expression). The cramming of third year of high school is just depressing...

 

[maskin]

Sopho-more = wise-foolish.

The first year you are so "fresh" you don't know what's going on. The second year you think you know what's going on (wise), but you don't (foolish).

I apologise for my pedantic first post, but as a linguist and etymology enthusiast I feel I should intervene. Sophomore comes from a Cambridge tradition where students begin learning debate and argumentation ("sophism" from Latin "sophimus") in their second year of college and continue until they graduate. So first years were referred to as fresh-men, a general term for novice. As they begin to learn the techniques of argument, they are called sophumers (sort of an intermediate stage between what we know as first and third year -- a degree used to be three years, not four). Afterwards they are called junior sophists, then senior sophists, from which we get junior and senior for third and fourth years respectively.

For the purpose of staying on topic, I think you're on to something with the statistical angle. In figure skating, particularly ladies, the regression is probably aggravated by body changes, which as someone else mentioned often coincides with the post-breakout year. Can you think of skaters who have had successful 'sophomore' years? It would make an interesting case study.

 

[ice coverage]

... Can you think of skaters who have had successful 'sophomore' years? ...

Max Aaron and Jason Brown each had a successful sophomore year, depending on how "sophomore" is interpreted.

If "sophomore" yr is interpreted as the second yr as a Senior skater, then Max is an example of a successful sophomore.

- As a freshman at the Senior level at 2012 Nats, Max placed eighth.
- As a sophomore at 2013 Nats, Max won. (Then placed fourth at Four Continents and seventh at Worlds.)​

If "sophomore" yr is interpreted as the yr following a big breakthrough yr, then Jason is an example of a successful sophomore.

- At 2014 Nats, Jason surprised many people by placing second. (Then placed ninth among individual men in Sochi.)
- At 2015 Nats, Jason won. (Then placed sixth at Four Continents and fourth at Worlds.)​

(2014 was Jason's third year as a Senior at Nats. 2012: ninth. 2013: eighth.)

 

[shyne]

I don't think it's fair to judge the skater's success in their first and second year solely on their placement in a major competition, because it depends on how strong their competitors are.

 

[fallingsk8er]

I don't think it's fair to judge the skater's success solely on their placement in a major competition, because it depends on how strong their competitors are.

True. Competitors can have a great skate and get a standing ovation, but not medal.

 

[gkelly]

Can you think of skaters who have had successful 'sophomore' years? It would make an interesting case study.

If you mean surpassing their "freshman" accomplishments, one example who comes to mind is
Tara Lipinski: 1996 US bronze medalist, 15th at Worlds; 1997 US and World champion

 

[ice coverage]

... it depends on how strong their competitors are.

Sure. It always depends on how strong one's competitors are -- no matter whether the skater is in their first yr, second yr, third yr, fourth yr, fifth yr, etc., etc.

[In any case, I've added some data to my post above.
But in the context of this thread, it seems reasonable to me to use one competition to establish what is meant by the "first yr" and what is meant by the "second yr" -- for a comparison that is as close to apples-to-apples as you are going to get. YMMV.]

 

[mrrice]

So interesting... When one begins in Brazilian high school, one is a first year and graduates at the big third (very common expression). The cramming of third year of high school is just depressing...

In the US (At least in Cal.) Your Junior, or 11th Grade year of High School is by far the hardest year. You have to take ALL of your college entry exams ( PSAT/SAT's ) that year and it consumes every ounce of your time if you hope to get into a good school.

In my case, I was already touring and my Parents made me leave the cast of West Side Story and come home as they didn't trust the tutor's to make me study. In my case, I never went to college until after I'd done a ton of touring and I think I was 23 when I finally went to Cal State Northridge. Just in time for the EARTHQUAKE........One of the most frightening experiences of my life.

Second only to skidding off the runway in Montreal......Thank God for Poutine and an Amusement Park called "La Ronde!!" They saved the day for the entire cast as we were all freaked out.

 

[Ice Dance]

If "sophomore" yr is interpreted as the yr following a big breakthrough yr, then Jason is an example of a successful sophomore.

- At 2014 Nats, Jason surprised many people by placing second. (Then placed ninth among individual men in Sochi.)
- At 2015 Nats, Jason won. (Then placed sixth at Four Continents and fourth at Worlds.)​

(2014 was Jason's third year as a Senior at Nats. 2012: ninth. 2013: eighth.)

But Jason's experience at Nationals in 2014 and 2015 is a classic example of where the term "sophomore slump" comes from. In 2014, he skated lights out. The expectations for him were lower coming in. People hoped he would do well. The audience really hoped. But they were absolutely thrilled when he skated clean. Surpassing expectations.

In 2015, the audience expected him to win. They had high expectations. And when he skated a less than perfect competition, a lot of the attention shifted to Josh. Who made what appeared to be a random error in the free skate. (Not so random. Turned out he had the same issue in the free at Worlds, though a better solution).

Anyway, technically Jason was a stronger competitor and finished higher in 2015. But winning over the skating fans was tougher. This happens in skating all the time. People react enthusiastically when new athletes come on the scene. Sometimes the audience--and I include Federations and judges as members of the audience--overreacts and we get hype. But sometimes the excitement is very valid. Those athletes do have incredible qualities that make them stand out from their peers. Often I want to shout at the lack of enthusiasm that comes later. When people forget. When they stop appreciating how wonderful Leonova's ability to emote is among the Russian ladies, or how outstanding Maia and Alex's unison is among all the World's top dance teams, or when viewers fall into complacence after Mao hits a triple axle.

A "sophomore slump" is really just that. A temporary downward movement--either in performance or expectations. (Often the higher the expectations, the more pressure during the performance). But sophomores are never finished. They are expected to grow and become juniors and seniors. Yukari Nakano, Denis Ten, Sasha Cohen, Kanako Murakami, the Shibutanis, Carolina Kostner, Mao Asada, etc.--the list of athletes who have made a huge splash, then dropped off at reaching higher expectations, and then risen again is long. And often extremely successful. I think it's the harder route. Athletes with less wow-factor but stronger competitive skills often seem to rise with a more steady progression, but ultimately they hit their share of super-high expectations and obstacles too. Any athlete that perseveres, stays healthy, and--in the case of pairs & dance--stays together long enough for a long-term career survives many slumps.

 

[ice coverage]

But Jason's experience at Nationals in 2014 and 2015 is a classic example of where the term "sophomore slump" comes from. ...

In 2015, ... a lot of the attention shifted to Josh. Who had come into the event with his first big senior international medal at 4CCs ....

Disagree that 2015 was a sophomore "slump" for Jason.

Agree that 2014 was a "lights-out" performance for Jason.
But for me, 2015 was not a slump. Although not a "lights-out" performance a la 2014, it was not a slump either.

YMMV. What constitutes a slump or jinx is in the eye of the beholder.

---

Re Josh:

You have your chronology mixed up.
Josh did not come into 2015 Nats with his silver medal from 2015 Four Continents.​

 

[mrrice]

I just think Alissa Czisny was a very poor competitor. She had all the goods but couldn't put them together very often to skate a clean program. It's a shame because she was beautiful on the ice.

Other skaters that come to mind are Mirai Negasu and actually Josh Farris. Something always happens. And they both have such a following and such talent but it's like the fates are against them.

If I could double like this comment, I most certainly would. It's so very true... My Joshi

 

[Mathman]

Afterwards they are called junior sophists,...

I think that is what I am, a junior sophist.

Thanks for the cool post, and welcome. I always thought the "more" in "sophomore" was related to "moron."

In the US (At least in Cal.) your Junior, or 11th Grade year of High School is by far the hardest year.

I think that is because this is usually the year when you turn 16. Then you and all your friends can get your driver's licenses and studying goes out the window.

 

[mrrice]

Mathman Said

"I think that is because this is usually the year when you turn 16. Then you and all your friends can get your a driver's licenses and studying goes out the window. "

This is correct. Especially if you're from "Snoodyville" Santa Barbara, Ca. where I grew up. You know what the car of choice was when I was in High School. A Convertible Mercedes. Even Oprah has a place in Santa Barbara.

 

[Rissa]

........

That all seems....unncessary. Why not just say "Grade 10"?

Because "Grade 10" doesn't apply to figure skating. "sophmore jinx" means jinx of the second year, because sophmore is second year of education.

 

[andyjo24]

If I could double like this comment, I most certainly would. It's so very true... My Joshi

My So Youn.....

 

[mrrice]

My So Youn.....

Where is So Youn? I totally forgot about her during this weird season where all of my favorites seem to be jinxed. I haven't heard a word about her all year. Will she be out for the remainder of the season?

 

[Ice Dance]

Josh did not come into 2015 Nats with his silver medal from 2015 Four Continents.[/INDENT]

You're right. Oops!

But he did make a splash at Nationals, and the expectations heading in were most definitely lower than the ones for Jason.

My point with the example for Jason was that a sophomore slump is often from the perspective of the audience rather than from any actual lowering of the athlete's overall competitive level.

 

[Amei]

I just think Alissa Czisny was a very poor competitor. She had all the goods but couldn't put them together very often to skate a clean program. It's a shame because she was beautiful on the ice.

That comment reminds me of Sasha Cohen even though she is very decorated, there is still the question of what her career would have looked like if she consistently skated 2 clean programs at 1 competition.

 

[mrrice]

That comment reminds me of Sasha Cohen even though she is very decorated, there is still the question of what her career would have looked like if she consistently skated 2 clean programs at 1 competition.

This is completely true. I can't think of a time when Sasha skated 2 clean programs and didn't win. She basically handed her gold medal to Kimmie at Worlds in 2006. That's not really true as Kimmie was great that night. However, Kimmie didn't need to be great as Sasha opened the door by only landing 4 triple's in her LP.

It's too bad really as Sasha had and in fact, still has, star quality.

 

[TMC]

You're right. Oops!

But he did make a splash at Nationals, and the expectations heading in were most definitely lower than the ones for Jason.

My point with the example for Jason was that a sophomore slump is often from the perspective of the audience rather than from any actual lowering of the athlete's overall competitive level.

I believe you're right; if you look at Jason's programmes tech-wise, at Nationals the 2015 ones weren't actually any less perfect than the 2014 ones. The mistakes were even the exact same ones: 2-footed UR (or DG) 2nd 3A in the free & a single slip in the short (mid-stsq in 2015, at the very end in 2014). If anything, his 2015 free was more difficult because more backloaded. He even scored almost exactly the same for both frees. I think the impression of any 'slump' is down to the sophomore programmes just not being as universally liked as the breakout ones, and to be fair it was always going to be exceedingly unlikely for them to create such another 'perfect storm' as 2014.