How much should U.S. Nationals count for World team selection?

[janetfan]

There is a BIG International Championship coming up tomorrow. All the internationals have had their day and there are 2 Americans remaining in this Final among several other notable internationals. Other than winning medals, it will also show how well an individual skater stands out among the crowd.

It is a Window to the Worlds. No?

Regarding the Ladies, no, I am not sure about that. I think the road to Worlds goes through Yuna and a better prepared Mao and even a healthier Mirai and possibly Laura if she is recovered can't be discarded.

I see the Ladies event at the GPF as strictly a second tier event, and a chance for newcomer Kanako to make a mark,
Rachael as well but she may be questionable since she is battling an injury and might not have her best tricks (3x3).

If Alissa skates two good programs she is good enough to medal against this group.
Not sure if that is true at Worlds when the best skaters will be competing for the big prize.

If Miki rises to the occassion and skates clean none of the Ladies at the GPF can beat her. But all of the missing Ladies can beat her and have beat her.

So is this a Worlds preview for the Ladies :think: It feels more like a preview of which one might sneak out a bronze medal at Worlds.

The Men feels more like a Worlds preview - but Jeremy could certainly contend for a medal later this season. BTW, what's going on with Brezina? Will he be at Euros or Worlds?

 

[Layfan]

Regarding the Ladies, no, I am not sure about that. I think the road to Worlds goes through Yuna and a better prepared Mao and even a healthier Mirai and possibly Laura if she is recovered can't be discarded.

You can bet the Japanese have not ruled out sending Mao to worlds just because she had a bad GP series. If she skates well at Japanese nationals next month, she is most definitely going to worlds. USA also has a world class skater who didn't make the final - Mirai.

If Alissa and Rachael finish 1-2 this weekend, yes, it will be a good omen for their ability to compete against the best. But if afterwards, Mirai skates her lights out to win nationals or silver in January, it would not be smart to count her out just because Alissa and Rachael did well in a competition that had some but not all the best ladies who might be at the top of their game in March.

 

[NMURA]

I'm about 98% sure Ando will be on the world podium. Any two of Asada, Nagasu, #3 Japanese or Kim take the rest. Reportedly Ando is going to take an year off after the season (maybe the same course with Kwan). She and Morozov are very highly motivated toward worlds.

 

[FlattFan]

If Miki rises to the occassion and skates clean none of the Ladies at the GPF can beat her. But all of the missing Ladies can beat her and have beat her.

When did Mirai beat her? Oh right, with the non-called flutzes at the Olympics, and that was the only time she did not get any downgrades and Miki skated like no dinner rolls for any mistake she'd make. If Miki rises to the occasion, Mirai just can't beat her.
Same with Laura. I just don't see anyone but Yuna and Mao beat a clean Miki.

 

[janetfan]

When did Mirai beat her? Oh right, with the non-called flutzes at the Olympics, and that was the only time she did not get any downgrades and Miki skated like no dinner rolls for any mistake she'd make. If Miki rises to the occasion, Mirai just can't beat her.
Same with Laura. I just don't see anyone but Yuna and Mao beat a clean Miki.

Please, just the facts flattfan - are you familiar with that concept
For the record - we all know Mirai and Laura beat Miki last season.

We also alll know your favorite has never beaten Miki.

Write any nonsense that makes you feel good and happy - sometimes it is amusing

 

[FlattFan]

janetfan, do you read what you write?

what you wrote

If Miki rises to the occassion and skates clean none of the Ladies at the GPF can beat her. But all of the missing Ladies can beat her and have beat her.

If Miki rises to the occasion, can Laura and Mirai beat her? They have beat her when she did not rise to the occasion and they did (sort of). Familiarize yourself with logic first because facts alone do not make logic.

 

[janetfan]

janetfan, do you read what you write?

what you wrote



If Miki rises to the occasion, can Laura and Mirai beat her? They have beat her when she did not rise to the occasion and they did (sort of). Familiarize yourself with logic first because facts alone do not make logic.

Mirai outskated Miki at the Olympics last season. Laura outskated Miki at Worlds.
You may disagree - but last time I checked you were just a fan - same as me.

Our opinions don't change the FACTS or REALITY flatfan. Your excuses are just that - excuses.

Sorry Rachael has never beaten Miki - but that does not mean Mirai and Laura haven't.

Maybe Rachael will skate well at the GPF and beat Miki.

Mirai and Laura won't be there so credit to Rachael for making the GPF. I hope she does well this weekend whether you believe it or not.

Last time I checked little Kanako beat Flatt at SA. Hope Flatt does better at the GPF.

 

[FlattFan]

Mirai outskated Miki at the Olympics last season. Laura outskated Miki at Worlds.
You may disagree - but last time I checked you were just a fan - same as me.

Our opinions don't change the FACTS or REALITY flatfan. Your excuses are just that - excuses.

Fact #1: you said if Miki rises to the occasion, the other girls can and have beat her.
Fact #2: the other girls beat her when she did not rise to the occasion
Fact #3: you're wrong about Fact #1.

 

[janetfan]

Fact #1: you said if Miki rises to the occasion, the other girls can and have beat her.
Fact #2: the other girls beat her when she did not rise to the occasion
Fact #3: you're wrong about Fact #1.

And you sound a little silly bordering on desperate . You are misquoting me...again... ...zzzzzzzzzzz

Tell you what - try and add something useful to the board.

You are the self-proclaimed flattfan and I respect that.
Tell me how she is doing with this injury? Do you know or even care what her chances will be this weekend - or are you just her to knock Mirai and Alissa :think:

We heard about Rachael's new 3Lz+3Lo which would have boosted her scores. But where is it? Will she have it this weekend - or maybe by Natls?

I think Rachael has some very good qualities......but I see her as a tech skater. If her jumps aren't separating her from the other Ladies I don't think she will win with her speed, SS or pcs.

A few think that makes me a bad person - but I write what I see..

Do you real follow Rachael and know anything about her - or is your game just to make provacative comments?

 

[ivy]

Out of the three choices- I'd go with b. Sometimes there are upsets at Nats where a less experienced competitor will beat a more experienced and consistent one. At the same time, putting the ENTIRE selection process in the hands of a committee without any clear rules may lead to controversy if decisions aren't justified clearly.

Sorry to digress to the original topic. I agree with this too, with points also being garnered at 4CC after Nat'ls. Maybe there could be a provision that if you MEDALED at last years Worlds or the current seasons GPF you can petition to get on the team if you are forced to miss part of the season due to illness or injury. Of course this is for a theoretical time in the future - for this year Nat'ls, 1st and 2nd should go.

 

[gkelly]

Maybe there could be a provision that if you MEDALED at last years Worlds or the current seasons GPF you can petition to get on the team if you are forced to miss part of the season due to illness or injury. Of course this is for a theoretical time in the future - for this year Nat'ls, 1st and 2nd should go.

The way the rules are now, the committee is allowed to consider someone who didn't compete at Nationals by taking into account various other events including last year's Worlds. Of course, the skaters involved would have to indicate that they are interested in being considered and not still too injured or whatever kept them out of Nationals.

Right now, Davis/White are the only Americans who are reigning world medalists. That's why I expect that the only situation in which I would expect the committee to deviate from Nationals results this year would be to name Davis/White to the world team if they should happen to miss Nationals. No one else has a strong enough record to outweigh the fact that Nationals results are the most important factor.

 

[janetfan]

Right now, Davis/White are the only Americans who are reigning world medalists. That's why I expect that the only situation in which I would expect the committee to deviate from Nationals results this year would be to name Davis/White to the world team if they should happen to miss Nationals. No one else has a strong enough record to outweigh the fact that Nationals results are the most important factor.

Thanks for explaining this in a way everybody can understand.
This seems to be the way it should be and I think most of us can see the difference in the achievements of D/W vs any of the current US Ladies, Men and Pairs teams.

Much arguing over the Ladies - but I agree that none of them have a strong enough record and since none are current World or Olympic medalists it seems fair to let them skate for it Natls.

 

[ivy]

The way the rules are now, the committee is allowed to consider someone who didn't compete at Nationals by taking into account various other events including last year's Worlds. Of course, the skaters involved would have to indicate that they are interested in being considered and not still too injured or whatever kept them out of Nationals.

Right now, Davis/White are the only Americans who are reigning world medalists. That's why I expect that the only situation in which I would expect the committee to deviate from Nationals results this year would be to name Davis/White to the world team if they should happen to miss Nationals. No one else has a strong enough record to outweigh the fact that Nationals results are the most important factor.

Yep agreed Davis and White sure have a strong case of getting to Worlds if something happens at Nat'ls. I was thinking more of the Ladies competion when talking about this years world team.

I guess I'd like to see the whole thing more itemized, more regularized - less "taking into account various other event" more "these exact events count and in this exact way, and only these exact people, who did x y or z, can even start to ask for an exception". I guess it sort of the same differance between 6.0 and CoP (mostly I like CoP)

 

[Mathman]

Sorry to digress to the original topic.

:thumbsup:

Right now, Davis/White are the only Americans who are reigning world medalists. That's why I expect that the only situation in which I would expect the committee to deviate from Nationals results this year would be to name Davis/White to the world team if they should happen to miss Nationals.

If you were on the Management Subcommittee, and if Davis and White had an injury in practice which prevented them from skating at Nationals but wjich was likely to heal in plenty of time for Worlds -- would you send them?

To me, it would still be a close call. I suppose the basic rule is, "If you've got world champions, send them (duh!)" Still...we have a lot of other good teams who have skated their hearts out this season and have made great strides.

 

[Bluebonnet]

How can you not consider GP series of the same season, and just base on sole performances of one event to determine a skater's future?!arty:

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

:thumbsup:



If you were on the Management Subcommittee, and if Davis and White had an injury in practice which prevented them from skating at Nationals but wjich was likely to heal in plenty of time for Worlds -- would you send them?

To me, it would still be a close call. I suppose the basic rule is, "If you've got world champions, send them (
duh!)" Still...we have a lot of other good teams who have skated their hearts out this season and have made great strides.

I can hear the violins playing.

I can't understand the fans of this Forum who do not believe that the Best Team should go to Worlds. They believe only one competition can decide the Best Team
(I can hear the violins again) Having doubts about Davis/White? C'mon, grow up and learn what sport is all about. Now use the term Strongest Team should go to Worlds - what do you have? Is it one competition that will show which skaters are the strongest? or do they show medals for the one competition only?

 

[Nadine]

I still believe US Nationals is winner take all ~ to the victor go the spoils!

However, I'm not so naive that I don't believe that the USFSA has a hand in it, like a certain skater will get the benefit of a close call, UR, edge call, things like that.

This is the same scenario I saw during the 2008/2009 season, Alissa did great during the GP (not as great as she did this time though by winning the GPF!), so she was an automatic lock for the World Team, only landing 3 triples in the FS against a 7-triple Rachael Flatt. Then she goes to Worlds & lays a huge egg.

As a result, there was a huge outcry about her questionable win at 2009 Nationals, and the error of sending her to Worlds over Caroline Zhang, whom was on fire that season. So she shows up at 2010 Nationals & gets buried in 12th place.

So to me this is deja vu all over again, except I hope she doesn't lay an egg at Worlds, please.

 

[R.D.]

I still believe US Nationals is winner take all ~ to the victor go the spoils!

However, I'm not so naive that I don't believe that the USFSA has a hand in it, like a certain skater will get the benefit of a close call, UR, edge call, things like that.

This is the same scenario I saw during the 2008/2009 season, Alissa did great during the GP (not as great as she did this time though by winning the GPF!), so she was an automatic lock for the World Team, only landing 3 triples in the FS against a 7-triple Rachael Flatt. Then she goes to Worlds & lays a huge egg.

As a result, there was a huge outcry about her questionable win at 2009 Nationals, and the error of sending her to Worlds over Caroline Zhang, whom was on fire that season. So she shows up at 2010 Nationals & gets buried in 12th place.

So to me this is deja vu all over again, except I hope she doesn't lay an egg at Worlds, please.

Oh boy. Still, she has to perform at Nationals. Seriously though- supposing she makes the world team...and then bombs a THIRD time- I'll have no words.

ETA: OTOH...imagine if inconsistent Alyssa finally got consistent. She could be giving the young'uns a run for their money right then and there. Plus, doing 180 pts she could be right in the mix for a world medal.

 

[silverlake22]

Oh boy. Still, she has to perform at Nationals. Seriously though- supposing she makes the world team...and then bombs a THIRD time- I'll have no words.

ETA: OTOH...imagine if inconsistent Alyssa finally got consistent. She could be giving the young'uns a run for their money right then and there. Plus, doing 180 pts she could be right in the mix for a world medal.

I don't know if it can be said Alissa has finally gotten consistent yet. She had 2 great competitions which she won, but at sectionals and TEB she delivered pretty typical Alissa performances. I also have to wonder if here victory here will put pressure on her going into US nationals and if that will cause her to bomb there. Although this victory at the GPF should give her a PCS boost and the benefit of the doubt at nationals, I don't think she'll be named to the World Team if she bombs at nationals and two other girls skate really well - it just wouldn't be fair and would cause a lot of controversy.

The other thing to keep in mind is that Alissa skated pretty much the best she could at the GPF, and while her SP score is definitely competitive for a World medal, I'm not convinced her FS score necessarily is. I mean, boring Miki with not the hardest content managed to outscore Alissa by 6 points in the FS here, and Lepisto with her 3 triple FS at Worlds last year nearly matched Alissa's FS score here. Further, Carolina and her Witt content matched Alissa's FS score, and Kanako's FS score was higher despite the single flip. Also the technical panel was generous with Alissa's marks, she didn't get edge calls for either of her flips even though they were outside edge, and honestly most of her jumps looked borderline UR and could have easily been downgraded, but weren't.

For these reasons I don't think Alissa is a lock for the World Team and think she will need to prove herself at nationals if she wants to make the team. I'd also say that Mirai is still probably the US lady with the best odds to medal at Worlds, just because Alissa on top of being unpredictable really is at the mercy of the technical panel.

 

[R.D.]

Well you're absolutely right. But keep in mind I said IMAGINE if she got consistent. Not that she HAS gotten consistent- hardly. I'm still waiting for Nationals...where I think she still has a high chance of bombing/not doing her best.