Men
1. Takahashi
2. Chan
3. Fernandez
4. Hanyu
5. Brezina
6. Abbott
Ladies
No idea
Pairs
1. Savchenko/Szolkowy
2. Kavaguti/Smirnov
3. Duhamel/Radford
4. Moore-Towers/Moscovitch
5. Takahashi/Tran
6. Zhang/Zhang
If Volosozhar/Trankov compete, place them first, and take out Mt/M
Dance
1. Virtue/Moir (hometown bonus. Need to get the levels though, or it won't happen)
2. Davis/White
3. Pechalat/Bourzat
4. Weaver/Poje
5. Shibutani/Shibutani
6. Bobrova/Soloviev
Maybe Elizaveta will pull an upset, like Mao did back in 2005, in which case, I predict the following:
Elizaveta
Mao
Akiko
Carolina
Alissa
Alena
For the men, Chan. The competition is in Canada, isn't it?
So if V/M wins, that's because of hometown advantage? Really? I'm surprised that with hometown advantage and inflation marks, Chan's still second
I don't believe in inflation marks, so please don't ascribe that to me. I think it'll take Chan longer to master Aranjuez, and since he's still attempting to up his technical game with the quad salchow, I think Takahashi has the edge.
Takahashi (NHK) still got outscored by Chan (SC) even with two falls.
Just further evidence of how ridiculously overscored Chan is. Probably the most overscored skater in figure skating history. I dont even get bothered by his marks anymore, I just laugh at them. No skater in history, including many with better technical abilities and artistry than Chan, have been allowed 20% the mistakes he does and still winning everything.
Anyway for this one event I and some others just happen to be predicting enough problems for him and a strong enough skate by someone else to overcome this excessive bias from the Chan orgasm groupies (aka judges). Will it turn out that way? We will just have to wait and see.
1. Chan
2. Takahashi
3. Fernandez
4. Hanyu
5. Abbott
6. Brezina
- Jet lag may take a toll on Takahashi, as Chan and Fernandez both train in Canada. But Takahashi only plans one quad, and the rest of his program is triples, which he can do in his sleep. Chan's place at the top is quite precarious, though. He hasn't been able to perform a clean quad and triple axel in any program consistently thus far, and the other skaters in the pack (namely, Takahashi, Fernandez, and Abbott) have considerably narrowed the gap between Chan's and their PCS. Fernandez is in third position because of his athleticism and I believe his stamina will return in time for the GPF.
As much as I want Abbott to win, he has to nail all of his jumps and triple-toe combinations to be considered for medal contention. Brezina and Hanyu are jumping powerhouses but will need to be foot perfect to get into the top 3.
1. Tuktamisheva
2. Asada
3. Kostner
4. Czisny
5. Suzuki
6. Leonova
- Tuktamisheva could easily win with her technical prowess and consistency. Even Asada has trouble with her edge calls and she has been fragile overseas. Her short program may not be good enough to get into the top 3. Kostner has the edge on Czisny in terms of her jump consistency even if it's easier content. Czisny just has too many problems with getting the height on her jumps and frequently gets an under-rotation call or 0's in GOE. Her transitions in the free aren't strong this year.
So as much as I'm a fan of her skating, I can see Suzuki and Leonova slipping past her in jumping alone. The judges, though, like her spins and general balletic artistry. I'm actually surprised that her choreographers don't incorporate more of her spirals in the transitions.
Suzuki is the dark horse and can achieve a second-place finish if she can keep up her cheer and stamina and not double her second triple lutz.
Pairs
1. Savchenko/Szolkowy
2. Kavaguti/Smirnov
3. Volosozhar/Trankov
4. Zhang/Zhang
5. Duhamel/Radford
6. Takahashi/Tran
- Not really much to say here. It's S/S's event to win or lose, mainly whether they chose to go for the unnecessary throw triple axel.
Dance
1. Davis/White
2. Virtue/Moir
3. Pechalat/Bourzat
4. Weaver/Poje
5. Bobrova/Soloviev
6. Shibutani/Shibutani
As other have predicted, Virtue/Moir will likely win the short dance with their strength in Latin dances through their interpretation and hip movement. But their transitions mark in the free program will hurt them and Davis/White can easily slip ahead of them with their complex holds.
The rest of the teams fall in line rather easily based on their prior match-ups this season. Pechalat/Bourzat have deeper edges and a stronger theme than Weaver/Poje, who have higher technical difficulty than Bobrova/Soloviev, who have better transitions than the Shibutani's.
1. Chan
2. Takahashi
3. Fernandez
4. Hanyu
5. Abbott
6. Brezina
- Jet lag may take a toll on Takahashi, as Chan and Fernandez both train in Canada. But Takahashi only plans one quad, and the rest of his program is triples, which he can do in his sleep. Chan's place at the top is quite precarious, though. He hasn't been able to perform a clean quad and triple axel in any program consistently thus far, and the other skaters in the pack (namely, Takahashi, Fernandez, and Abbott) have considerably narrowed the gap between Chan's and their PCS. Fernandez is in third position because of his athleticism and I believe his stamina will return in time for the GPF.
As much as I want Abbott to win, he has to nail all of his jumps and triple-toe combinations to be considered for medal contention. Brezina and Hanyu are jumping powerhouses but will need to be foot perfect to get into the top 3.
I believe the ladies podium will consist of Mao, Akiko and Liza, in any order. If they go clean, Mao-Akiko-Liza or Akiko-Mao-Liza will be the order. I don't see Carolina or Alissa making the podium, Alissa because she needs to skate clean both in Sp and Lp(so far she had a mini meltdown, the LP in SA and the SP in TEB), Carolina because even if she is semi-clean, there is not enough content to overtake a clean Mao, Akiko, Liza or Alissa. I'm curious to see how will Liza handle the pressure to skate last in the SP. So far it was all fun for her, the newcomer skating in the first group, landing stuff and putting pressure on the others. Now she is the first qualifier to the GPF and some expect her to win. Adelina didn't make it, now it's her chance to show she is Russia nr 1. She can do it, she is a tough competitor, but I'm afraid sooner or later the pressure will get to her.
And I just laugh at your post. Too funny, you should do comedy.Just further evidence of how ridiculously overscored Chan is. Probably the most overscored skater in figure skating history. I dont even get bothered by his marks anymore, I just laugh at them. No skater in history, including many with better technical abilities and artistry than Chan, have been allowed 20% the mistakes he does and still winning everything.
Anyway for this one event I and some others just happen to be predicting enough problems for him and a strong enough skate by someone else to overcome this excessive bias from the Chan orgasm groupies (aka judges). Will it turn out that way? We will just have to wait and see.