Which man will break out in 2014-2015?

Ladies and gentlemen, because it's off-season, we are bored here. And we have run out of ideas to start a new key-board war. We are too tired of YunaMao's fan war, and Yulia-Polina thread is going nowhere with a series of limitless definitions about musicality.

Then suddenly icenetwork provided us with an amazing theme for a new discussion. Here is the article: http://web.icenetwork.com/news/2014/08/25/87431632/

According to the article Joshua Farris and Maxim Kovtun are both poised to be the breakout stars next season, with Joshua Farris in the lead (4.5 points) and Maxim Kovtun second (4 points). It's kinda sad that they seem to write Jason Brown and Max Aaron. I don't get it! Jason is by far the most exciting to watch, and Max Aaron are no less wonderful. I have no dislike toward Joshua Farris, I like him pretty well. It's just I think it's unfair to write Jason and Max off.

So I dare to include all of their name on the title. I hope we will have a friendly and objective discuss. And the point of this thread is to compare the strength and weakness of these young talents who are relatively in the same generation.

PS before hand: We do not discuss Yuzuru Hanyu and Javier Fernández here, because of too much pinkness in the previous thread (you know, we almost planed a wedding and honeymoon). And it's not fair to bring up these 2 because in term of achievement, they have a long line of medals already and I am tired of reading about Yuzuru's posture and Javi's Zayzak mistakes.

So there is this little comparision made by me, in my humble opinion:

Presentation: Jason > Max > Joshua > Kovtun
Jumping ability: Kovtun > Max > Joshua > Jason
Spin: Jason > Joshua > Kovtun > Max
Footwork: Jason > Joshua > Kovtun > Max
Speed: Kovtun > Max > Joshua > Jason
Package: Jason > Kovtun > Joshua > Max
Attitude: Jason = Joshua = Max >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Kovtun
Achievement: Anyone check their list of medals for me, please? Karne? Help!

Please share me your ideas about which great skaters in the paste that you think these youngsters remind you of?

And last but not least, who do you think is the most complete skater among these boys? I hate to say this, but I think it's Kovtun. Because he is Tat's favourite.

Feel free to discuss!

Haha I love all of your assessment ratings. They may as well be the new categories for an improved PCS

Joshua Farris has gained international fame on the junior circuit, even defeating Jason Brown for the gold medal at the 2013 World Junior Championships. He placed a strong fourth at his first U.S. championships as a senior, in 2013, and followed that up with another fourth-place showing last season.

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It could be very well Nam Nguyen instead, and nobody is considering Brown but Farris because he won the juniors in 2013 and twice 4th place in US? :sarcasm:

Alba said:

It could be very well Nam Nguyen instead, and nobody is considering Brown but Farris because he won the juniors in 2013 and twice 4th place in US? :sarcasm:

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Well, the article was about the upcoming season's breakout star. Jason broke out last season, I'd say.

I will have to review some of their programs before I can assess properly (esp. Joshua's), but I'm not sure exactly what is the difference between package & presentation?

Alba said:

It could be very well Nam Nguyen instead, and nobody is considering Brown but Farris because he won the juniors in 2013 and twice 4th place in US? :sarcasm:

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Well, Nam is too young and frankly I have to say neither his jumps/spin/presentation stand out at this point. Same with Adian Pivkeev. He is lovely and his jumping ability is quite good, but his presentation is not there yet. They are too young, let's spare them for now.

All the guys mentioned above have quite excellent jumping ability, except Jason. But Jason is the most engaging performer so I expect his PCS will be higher than these 3 for a while.

In term of jumping ability I think Kovtun has the most talents, they said he can land 5 quads consecutively. I've heard that Joshua and Max also have 3 quads in their arsenal as well. But according to CanadianSkaterGuy, Kovtun has a high percentage landing the 4S. His spin is not outstanding but he can make up by 5 quads in both programs. And in term of package, I am sure Russian Fed will invest in him more than US Fed invest in Jason, Joshua and Max.

So I think it's objectively fair to say, Kovtun has the highest chance here.

This is ridiculous. I have to log in to reply. :scowl: It's obviously Kovtun who is better than these guys. He is Russian No.1 for some reason. I am sure Russian Fed know what they are doing. I don't get why they sent Plushenko with that broken back to Olympic instead of Kovtun. Given the fact that both Hanyu and Chan did a bad job at free, Kovtun would have stayed on his feet and received the gold!
You guys don't like him because he beat Plushenko! It's simple! He has the jumps, Russian Fed is supporting him. Obviously he is a big contender in the next quad!
I don't see the rest of these guys are talented as him. Joshua is like a clown with that long he choreographed himself (terrible taste), Max is always a joke, artistry what. Jason is terrible at jumps!
Only Jeremy is decent but he had weak nerves.

I love this kind of comparisons! Sorry if I get a little nitpicky

Meoima said:

So there is this little comparision made by me, in my humble opinion:

Jumping ability: Kovtun > Max > Joshua > Jason

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I'd put Max over Kovtun. I know Kovtun has 2 different quads, but as long as he isn't more consistent with them, he can't really capitalize on them. Max usually has a higher BV I think, and his jumps definitely have better quality. People can dislike Max all they want, but his jumps are great!

Speed: Kovtun > Max > Joshua > Jason

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Could you explain what you based those decisions on? Max is really fast, and Kovtun looks at maximum average too me. I'd say Joshua is probably faster than Kovtun too.
Jason, even if he might be the slowest out of this group, is not as slow as some people make him out to be. Just saying.

Saying who is the most complete is difficult. I'm really, really tempted to go for Jason, because the big red hearts in my eyes always make me un-see the nonexistent quad. But really, he leads this group in: presentation, spins, footwork, package and IMO even achievements. That's 5 out of 7 (not counting the attitude one ). If the jumps really are such an issue, than I'd pick Joshua, he's a very well-rounded skater.

Chipi said:

This is ridiculous. I have to log in to reply. :scowl: It's obviously Kovtun who is better than these guys. He is Russian No.1 for some reason. I am sure Russian Fed know what they are doing. I don't get why they sent Plushenko with that broken back to Olympic instead of Kovtun. Given the fact that both Hanyu and Chan did a bad job at free, Kovtun would have stayed on his feet and received the gold!
You guys don't like him because he beat Plushenko! It's simple! He has the jumps, Russian Fed is supporting him. Obviously he is a big contender in the next quad!
I don't see the rest of these guys are talented as him. Joshua is like a clown with that long he choreographed himself (terrible taste), Max is always a joke, artistry what. Jason is terrible at jumps!
Only Jeremy is decent but he had weak nerves.

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You must be joking, huh????? I agree that Kovtun has more chance, but not because he is better than these guys, it's because he is Tat's favourite. End of story.

Li'Kitsu said:

I'd put Max over Kovtun. I know Kovtun has 2 different quads, but as long as he isn't more consistent with them, he can't really capitalize on them. Max usually has a higher BV I think, and his jumps definitely have better quality. People can dislike Max all they want, but his jumps are great!

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I've heard that Kovtun can land the 4lutz or 4flip I am not sure. But he stated that he had 3 different quad. Max I like him as well but is he as consistent in the quad as Kovtun? I have to check the protocol to see. But 5 consecutive quads sounds serious, be it 4T or 4S it doesn't matter, if Kovtun can actually land all those quads in minutes, then I think he has more jumping ability. But let's wait till we've check the protocol.

Li'Kitsu said:

Could you explain what you based those decisions on? Max is really fast, and Kovtun looks at maximum average too me. I'd say Joshua is probably faster than Kovtun too.
Jason, even if he might be the slowest out of this group, is not as slow as some people make him out to be. Just saying.
Saying who is the most complete is difficult. I'm really, really tempted to go for Jason, because the big red hearts in my eyes always make me un-see the nonexistent quad. But really, he leads this group in: presentation, spins, footwork, package and IMO even achievements. That's 5 out of 7 (not counting the attitude one ). If the jumps really are such an issue, than I'd pick Joshua, he's a very well-rounded skater.

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Well, speed is very difficult to judge, because cameras follow the skaters quite fast so it's subjective. If we had some stand still camera fancam, I think it might be easier to know who is the fastest. I hope people who have watch at least one of them live to join us to provide some insight.

I hadn't known how fast Yuzuru is until I saw some fancam clips on youtube.

Meoima said:

.... Then suddenly icenetwork provided us with an amazing theme for a new discussion. Here is the article: http://web.icenetwork.com/news/2014/08/25/87431632/

According to the article Joshua Farris and Maxim Kovtun are both poised to be the breakout stars next season, with Joshua Farris in the lead (4.5 points) and Maxim Kovtun second (4 points). It's kinda sad that they seem to write Jason Brown and Max Aaron. I don't get it! Jason is by far the most exciting to watch, and Max Aaron are no less wonderful. I have no dislike toward Joshua Farris, I like him pretty well. It's just I think it's unfair to write Jason and Max off. ...

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gallavich said:

Well, the article was about the upcoming season's breakout star. Jason broke out last season, I'd say. ...

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The IN article did not write Max and Jason off. Its focus was prediction of the breakout stars of the coming season.

U.S. men (only U.S. men) were discussed as one category, and Josh received 4.5 points. As gallavich said, Jason already broke out last season.
I would add that Max already broke out the season before that.
Although Josh was the junior world champion in 2013, this season could be the one when he breaks out as a senior U.S. man.

Men overall were discussed as a separate category, and Kovtun received 4 points.

Josh is not "in the lead" over Kovtun. They were evaluated in different categories.

I don't think USFSA pays enough attention to their young male skaters. They don't even focus on girls as much as before. Kovtun is by far better jumper than all these. Russian Fed will support him and push him as their No.1 now that Plushenko finally goes away for good. Kovtun will get ahead of all these guys.

Achievement: Anyone check their list of medals for me, please? Karne? Help!

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Kovtun:
Worlds: 4th (2014); 17th (2013)
Euros: 5th (2014); 5th (2013)
GP: Cup of China (2013), 2nd; Rostelecom Cup (2013), 2nd;
GPF: 5th (2013)
Nationals: 1st (2014), 5th (2013)
JGPF: 1st (2012); 4th (2011)
JGP: Croatia (2012), 1st; Germany (2012); 1st; Romania (2011), 1st; Estonia (2011), 2nd

Yan:
Olympics: 7th (2014)
Worlds: 7th (2014)
4CC: 3rd (2013)
GPF: 6th (2013)
GP: Cup of China (2013), 1st; Trophee Eric Bompard (2013), 4th
Nationals: 4th (2014); 2nd (2013); 3rd (2012); 1st (2011); 1st (2010)
Jr. Worlds: 1st (2012), 6th (2011)
JGPF: 2nd (2012), 2nd (2011)
JGP: JGP Austria (2010-2011), 1st both times; JGP Italy (2011), 1st; JGP Czech Republic (2010), 1st; Turkey (2009), 1st; Croatia (2012), 2nd; Slovenia (2012), 5th

Brown:
Olympics: 9th (2014)
GP: Trophee Eric Bompard (2013), 3rd; Skate America (2013); 3rd
Nationals: 2nd (2014); 8th (2013); 9th (2012); 9th (2011)
Jr. Worlds: 2nd (2013); 3rd (2012)
JGPF: 4th (2012); 1st (2011)
JGP: Turkey (2012), 1st; Australia (2011), 1st; France (2012), 2nd; Italy (2011), 2nd; France (2010), 2nd; Japan (2010), 6th

Farris
4CC: 6th (2014)
GP: Skate Canada (2013), 5th
Nationals: 4th (2014); 4th (2013); 16th (2012); 21st (2011)
Jr. Worlds: 1st (2013); 2nd (2012); 7th (2011)
JGPF: 2nd (2012); 3rd (2011); 6th (2010)
JGP: Slovenia (2012), 1st, U.S. (2012), 1st; Poland (2011), 1st; Estonia (2011), 1st; UK (2010), 1st; Romania (2010), 2nd

Aaron:
Worlds: 8th (2014); 7th (2013)
4CC: 4th (2013)
GP: Skate America (2013), 3rd; NHK Trophy (2013), 7th
Nationals: 3rd (2014), 1st (2013), 8th (2012)
Jr. Worlds: 5th (2011)
JGPF: 4th (2010)
JGP: Japan (2010), 2nd; France (2010), 3rd. '

Direct comparisons are tough because these four have not faced each other directly a whole ton.

Here's what we do know:
Max is currently 5-1 on Jason. He has previously beat Jason at two Nationals (2012,2013) and Skate America as seniors, and in Jr. Worlds in 2011 and JGP Japan in 2010. But Jason obviously beat him when it counted (for the Olympic berth).

Max is currently 4-0 on Joshua, having beat him at all their Nationals faceoffs (2012-2014), Max also beat him internationally just once at JGPF 2010. It's not a perfect comparison because they did not faceoff outside of nationals after the 2010-2011 season.

Josh and Jason are tied at 4-4 in their faceoffs. Jason has beaten Josh in 3 out of 4 Nationals appearances (2011,2012 and 2014), but Josh has beaten Jason more internationally as juniors including at 2012 JGPF and Jr. Worlds in 2012 and 2013.

As for Kovtun, He is 1-1 in Max with two faceoffs at Worlds. Max ranked higher than him in 2013, while Maxim placed higher in 2014.

He has only faced off Joshua and Jason in juniors:

1-2 with Josh Farris. They face each other once in the 2011-2012 JGP season (in Estonia) and in the 2011 and 2012 JGPFs. Kovtun only beat Josh in the 2012 JGPF.

1-1 with Jason, having only faced him at JGPF twice. They flipped-
flopped placements. In 2011, Jason won while Kovtun was in 4th. The reverse occured in 2012 when Kovtun won and Jason was in 4th.

ETA: Han's faceoffs:

Kovtun: 2-3. As Jrs. Han edged him in JGPF in 2011, Kovtun beat him the following season in JGP Croatia. This season, Han beat him at Cup of China but Kovtun placed higher at GPF (2013-2014) and at Worlds

Joshua: 3-0 Beat at two JGPFs, and Jr. Worlds in 2012,
Jason: 4-2. Yan has the edge in Jrs. with a 3-1 record (he beat Jason in JGP Italy in 2011 and in Jr. Worlds in 2011 and 2012; Jason beat him in JGPF 2011). They are 1-1 as seniors -- Jason beat him at Trophee Eric Bompard while Han edged him in the Olympics.
Aaron: 2-1. Aaron beat him in Jr. Worlds in 2011, but Han has beat him in 4CC in 2013 and at Worlds 2014)

gallavich said:

Well, the article was about the upcoming season's breakout star. Jason broke out last season, I'd say.

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I need to clarify this. When they say "broke out" do they mean like Jason or actually winning something, a GP for example?
In his case, Farris, entering in top 10 at Worlds, or what?

Meoima said:

I agree that Kovtun has more chance, but not because he is better than these guys, it's because he is Tat's favourite. End of story.

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He was. Hopefully Gachinsky is going to be her favorite now.

I would also add Han Yan to the comparison, because not only he's close in age to Brown, Kovtun and Farris, but these five are the most probable future contender to the current "kings" of figure skating (Machida, Fernandez, Hanyu, Chan if he comes back).

Kovtun right now has the lead in term of results and PB. He has the highest scoring potential (technically of these five only Max Aaron can compete with him, but kovtun has quite the edge on him on pcs) and quite a strong backing from his federation. He isn't a really consistent skater, but even on his off day he has been able to get some decent score thanks to his BV.

Brown not only is a public darling, but thanks to his consistency he has posed himself has one of the strongest USA skater internationally. He already has very good pcs scores, but his technical shortcomings truly held him back. While in the short he is able to not fall too back (Mrs. P had shown lots of interesting data on his competition on other threads), in the free he has to be foot-perfect and hope for others mistake to overcome the difference in base value alone.

Han Yan he's maybe the more talented of the bunch, with beautiful jumps and great skating skill, but he's also the more inconsistent of them all. During these last two years he has managed from not even medal on the JGP to win a bronze in 4cc, from winning cup of china to come fourth in paris with a score of just 214. he has closed the season with two respectable 7th place at worlds and Olympics, but in the new season he willhard pressed to repeat.

Aaron has maybe the highest consistency on his jump and the highest BV, but his lack of polishing and little appreciation from the judges prevent him from being a true competitor. after his good seventh place at 2013 worlds many expected great things from him, but this season he had only one truly good competition (national) and even there he was beaten by two skater with easier skates.

After being harped as the new great sensation in 2012-2013 Farris has truly slumped during the last year. Not only he was highly inconsistent but he wasn't even able to repeat his junior scores from the 2013 wjc. He has the more to prove this next season, but I believe that he has the talent to become again a frontrunner.

Meoima said:

I've heard that Kovtun can land the 4lutz or 4flip I am not sure. But he stated that he had 3 different quad. Max I like him as well but is he as consistent in the quad as Kovtun? I have to check the protocol to see. But 5 consecutive quads sounds serious, be it 4T or 4S it doesn't matter, if Kovtun can actually land all those quads in minutes, then I think he has more jumping ability. But let's wait till we've check the protocol.

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I don't really care all that much about what they supposedly can to in training. I care about what they show in competition, and I think with that Max has been more impressive.

Well, speed is very difficult to judge, because cameras follow the skaters quite fast so it's subjective. If we had some stand still camera fancam, I think it might be easier to know who is the fastest. I hope people who have watch at least one of them live to join us to provide some insight.

I hadn't known how fast Yuzuru is until I saw some fancam clips on youtube.

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Yes, it would probably help, but I never really found any.
Yuzu is very impressive! So is Han Yan, who could actually fit quite well into this discussion

golden411 said:

U.S. men (only U.S. men) were discussed as one category, and Josh received 4.5 points.

Men overall were discussed as a separate category, and Kovtun received 4 points.

Josh is not "in the lead" over Kovtun. They were evaluated in different categories.

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Ah, that I didn't get. :thumbsup:
So, who was in men overall with Kovtun? Nam, I suppose, who esle?
Just curious to know.

Alba said:

He was. Hopefully Gachinsky is going to be her favorite now.

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Gachinski is done. Russian Fed has abandoned him. Kovtun is Russian's biggest hope now. Younger ones have yet to prove themselves. Kovtun can land 3 quads. He will get high PCS with backing from his federation.

Chipi said:

Gachinski is done. Russian Fed has abandoned him. Kovtun is Russian's biggest hope now. Younger ones have yet to prove themselves. Kovtun can land 3 quads. He will get high PCS with backing from his federation.

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Tatian took him. I would say Russian Fed has abandoned him.
In anycase, if he does well, Russian Fed will love him back.

Alba said:

Tatian took him. I would say Russian Fed has abandoned him.
In anycase, if he does well, Russian Fed will love him back.

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Tat loves Kovtun more. She only pities Gachinski, and she wants to make Mishin suffer. Another student of his left him for her. She is just using Gachinski. His mental is weak, he is done.

This thread hurts my heart because we all know that I love all three of my American boys equally!

But the premise of the article was "who will be the breakout skater" and I agree with it - Max and Jason have already "broken out", but Josh hasn't, and I love that overwhelmingly everyone chose him (although I was also :yay: for the vote for Timothy Dolensky!).

I still have a problem of who I want to win US Nationals, though. I want Max to win to prove he's not done. I want Jason to win because JASON and I want Josh to win because he still seems so invisible. HELP!