I am struggling with the scores in the SD Juniors Ice Dance. McNamara and Carpenter score 73 and the Parsons 70? So does that mean they should be in the senior Worlds and be on the podium? Or is the scoring just overall so inflated at Nationals that we are going to see mid-high 70s with the Seniors in their SD and reality will hit all when they get to the world stage? I like Lorraine and Quinn although not really a fan of this year's performances. But I certainly see them as talented and with great potential. Not as enthralled with the Parsons but, just my opinion. Meanwhile, unless these extraordinary scores are well-deserved, I think the national inflation does them a disservice. I guess time will tell. And some Slovakian judge peering over his glasses.
US Nationals Junior Ice Dance
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Yes, these scores were rather drastically inflated, and yes, this probably means the seniors will be breaking 75 
, but they are both quality teams. Not exactly world medal quality, but certainly senior-quality. I enjoy both (moreso M/C, but I like both).
However, scores that would've had them 2nd and 5th at Worlds last year are wildly excessive.
, but they are both quality teams. Not exactly world medal quality, but certainly senior-quality. I enjoy both (moreso M/C, but I like both). However, scores that would've had them 2nd and 5th at Worlds last year are wildly excessive.
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Just because their scores were high doesn't necessarily mean they should be at the senior level, it just means that they're the best in their division. If McNamara and Carpenter win the World Junior title, then I expect them to move up to seniors next season as most teams do, but they do still have one more season left of junior eligibility. Frankly, I've never seen US Ice dance this deep and competitive ever before in the junior circuit.
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McNamara/Carpenter did score higher for their SD than Bobrova/Soloviev did in the GPF. Of course different judging panels and pattern dance and all that.
Same argument all over again. Look at the history of juniors-seniors transitions. These scores are NOT comparable.
Yes, keep in mind that the Starlight Waltz is an "easier" pattern than the Ravensburger.
Here's the pattern (page 3) for Starlight: http://www.ice-dance.com/main/images/stories/pdf/compulsory/StarlightWaltz.pdf
And for Ravensburger: http://www.ice-dance.com/main/images/stories/pdf/compulsory/RavensburgerWaltz.pdf
You can see that the Ravensburger has a lot more intricate steps.
Neither couple would be getting those scores with the Ravensburger. What their scores mean is that probably both ready to move up and that they are high-caliber juniors at the moment. How both pairs will fare in their debut seniors, of course, remains to be seen.
Here's the pattern (page 3) for Starlight: http://www.ice-dance.com/main/images/stories/pdf/compulsory/StarlightWaltz.pdf
And for Ravensburger: http://www.ice-dance.com/main/images/stories/pdf/compulsory/RavensburgerWaltz.pdf
You can see that the Ravensburger has a lot more intricate steps.
Neither couple would be getting those scores with the Ravensburger. What their scores mean is that probably both ready to move up and that they are high-caliber juniors at the moment. How both pairs will fare in their debut seniors, of course, remains to be seen.
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Call me crazy but I can actually see Lorraine/Quinn kill the Regensburg waltz and get high scores like they do now. Look at the energy and speed they have. Same with the Parsons. Michael has better posture, skating skills, and edges most senior male dancers wish they had so I feel the judges would award them similarly. Both these teams obviously have good coaching. They'll most likely go senior next season.
I think both teams obviously have the Starlight down flat. I think they both would do a respectable Ravensburger, but I don't think it would be 70+ levels. But again it's hard to say...
No chance in hell they're gonna score this high in Seniors when they'll be skating next to top Senior teams, because the difference in quality of skating would be glaring. They would be happy to crack 60, IMO. And it goes not only for American teams, but for any junior teams on current field. And it doesn't even matter what pattern they would do.
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The Shibutanis had a pretty good transition from juniors to seniors scoring higher in their senior GPs and 4CC and Worlds than they had as juniors (2nd at Junior Worlds in 2009, 4th at Junior Worlds in 2010, then bronze at senior Worlds in 2011). They did drop in the rankings a bit, but they were clearly senior level. Virtue/Moir won junior worlds then placed 6th at senior Worlds the next season (also posting scores that were higher than they had received as juniors) then won silver the next year winning the FD. It took Davis/White about two seasons as seniors to hit top 4 until going on to share the top two spots for the next five seasons. Papadakis/Cizeron took two seasons after Juniors to become World Champions. Some teams are special, and the team that has been breaking Junior scoring records and dominating the field may prove to be one of them or may need a few seasons to become a contender in the senior level. I'm not saying M/C and the Parsons would score the same in senior competition as they have been in the JGP series, but it's impressive what they've done and they are quality teams. I also don't get why the idea of them being competitive with the seniors is offensive for some people (judging from the somewhat hostile tone of the posts). I think the performances they've been given in the JGP series are good enough to make H/B and C/M light some fire under their skates.
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The scores aren't comparable.
Juniors have been scoring much higher relative to the top seniors in the Short Dance all season. If you compare the free dance scores, they are not as close. I think the sudden drop in the junior scores at the GPF was telling. Is it possible that one of these teams can start to challenge at the senior level next season? It's possible, but you have to compare the same pattern dances. You can't compare two different ones.
Ultimately all these American junior teams have the same problem. They're going to be up against three senior teams ranked top 10 in the world--all of whom qualified for the Grand Prix Final. Neither the Shibs nor P&C had to face anywhere near that kind of depth at home during their debut seasons.
Juniors have been scoring much higher relative to the top seniors in the Short Dance all season. If you compare the free dance scores, they are not as close. I think the sudden drop in the junior scores at the GPF was telling. Is it possible that one of these teams can start to challenge at the senior level next season? It's possible, but you have to compare the same pattern dances. You can't compare two different ones.
Ultimately all these American junior teams have the same problem. They're going to be up against three senior teams ranked top 10 in the world--all of whom qualified for the Grand Prix Final. Neither the Shibs nor P&C had to face anywhere near that kind of depth at home during their debut seasons.
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I think I'm not articulating my point well. My point was just to counter some posters' arguments that these teams are not senior level. I'm not saying they're going to overtake anybody or that they would score the same way that they have been in the JGP if they were skating in the senior level. Nor do I think they can overtake the top three seniors. But I do think the scores (inflated or not) they have been getting from the judges is a pretty good indicator that the judges like them and think they're quality. Some posters may be downplaying M/C and the Parsons, but I guarantee you that they put some of the senior teams on notice at Nationals (some who will no doubt be in the final flight in the FD I bet) and maybe in two years they'll be in the mix for that Olympic team.
I basically totally agree with everything in this post, except I think I like the Parsons more even if I don't think they should beat M/C.
Yes, these scores were rather drastically inflated, and yes, this probably means the seniors will be breaking 75
However, scores that would've had them 2nd and 5th at Worlds last year are wildly excessive.
I basically totally agree with everything in this post, except I think I like the Parsons more even if I don't think they should beat M/C.
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Those two arn't even that good. Both of them are tall, that's it. Absolute horrid technique. Maybe in the future they won't suck that hard but in the meantime there are better teams.
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The overscoring of Juniors this year baffles me really. I don't think it does them any favors actually.
Mc/C looked so disappointed to get "only" 92 for their FD at the JGPF (I think they scored around 97 at a JGP event) you'd never guess they won the Gold!
People got overly excited about H/B because it had been a while since a US team won Jr. Worlds but let's not forget that the current Top Sr. Ice Dancers had stellar Jr. careers as well: JGP Final Gold (Hubbell/Hubbell, Chock/Zuerlein), Jr. World Gold (Samuelson/Bates, Chock/Zuerlein, Hawayek/Baker), Jr Worlds silver (Shibutani/Shibutani). C/Z, S/S and H/H almost swept the podium at Jr. World in 2009 actually with H/H being only 0.46 from the bronze medal.
I'm not saying that H/B, Mc/C and P/P are not good teams, I think that they have a lot of potential, but they also have a lot of things to work on like posture, speed,...that may be overlooked in Juniors, but are more important in Seniors. And the US field in Ice Dance is incredibly deep!
Mc/C looked so disappointed to get "only" 92 for their FD at the JGPF (I think they scored around 97 at a JGP event) you'd never guess they won the Gold!
People got overly excited about H/B because it had been a while since a US team won Jr. Worlds but let's not forget that the current Top Sr. Ice Dancers had stellar Jr. careers as well: JGP Final Gold (Hubbell/Hubbell, Chock/Zuerlein), Jr. World Gold (Samuelson/Bates, Chock/Zuerlein, Hawayek/Baker), Jr Worlds silver (Shibutani/Shibutani). C/Z, S/S and H/H almost swept the podium at Jr. World in 2009 actually with H/H being only 0.46 from the bronze medal.
I'm not saying that H/B, Mc/C and P/P are not good teams, I think that they have a lot of potential, but they also have a lot of things to work on like posture, speed,...that may be overlooked in Juniors, but are more important in Seniors. And the US field in Ice Dance is incredibly deep!
I'm sorry, but everyone who has eyes and actually understands something in ice dance (not just 'ohhh, I liked their dance', or 'oh, they look strong') can see that McNamara/Carpenter, Loboda/Drozd, the Parsons, Popova/Vlasenko, Lauriault/Le Gac, Carreira/Ponomarenko, Pogrebinsky/Benoit and Abachkina/Thauron were drastically overscored for the whole juniors season. WAY too overscored. And don't let me even start on Biechler/Dodge! All these teams cracked 60 points in their SDs, I think. Some of them objectively are stronger than the others, it's true. But none of these teams is Seniors material. And definitely not TOP Seniors material like some posters here claim them to be. You will see that next season. They need time, potential is there.
This season's juniors scores is not showing real picture of what all these teams are capable of.
Edit: I'm glad people are excited, but these scores are misleading. Don't get your hopes too high.
This season's juniors scores is not showing real picture of what all these teams are capable of.
Edit: I'm glad people are excited, but these scores are misleading. Don't get your hopes too high.
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Yeah, it's wild overscoring and it doesn't help the skaters at all since they don't get a realistic impression of where they stand. And the thing here is: It's not just the "usual" Nats inflation, these scores are from fantasy land. I was glad they came somewhat back to earth in the JGPF. Because this kind of thing is totally counterproductive, giving the junior teams scores that have nothing to do with what the seniors are doing. And then they'll move to seniors and most of them will be in for a rude awakenening. Because all the things that are overlooked now won't be anymore then.
I'm not saying the current top junior teams won't be doing well, but the transition is tough. It's tough for H/B already, and IMO they still look like a junior team skating against seniors now. It was pretty obvious in the final flight in SA, where they looked smaller and underpowered compared to the other three teams. It's been tough for Y/M in Russia, coming into a rather deep seniors field with many teams at a very good level. Programs and injury didn't help, but they looked a bit out of their depth at Nats in the senior field. Perhaps the current crop will transition no problem. But the field in the US is deep, deep, deep, and giving them fairytale scores now is in no way productive for their development. I hope at least the international judges and tech specialists proceed as in the Grand Prix final and calm down.
I'm not saying the current top junior teams won't be doing well, but the transition is tough. It's tough for H/B already, and IMO they still look like a junior team skating against seniors now. It was pretty obvious in the final flight in SA, where they looked smaller and underpowered compared to the other three teams. It's been tough for Y/M in Russia, coming into a rather deep seniors field with many teams at a very good level. Programs and injury didn't help, but they looked a bit out of their depth at Nats in the senior field. Perhaps the current crop will transition no problem. But the field in the US is deep, deep, deep, and giving them fairytale scores now is in no way productive for their development. I hope at least the international judges and tech specialists proceed as in the Grand Prix final and calm down.
In two years, probably. Even likely. And no one's here downplaying M/C and the Parsons, it's just that people expect immediate success for them based on this ridiculous out-of-reality high scores, not based on ACTUAL (not potential) level of skating.
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- Jul 26, 2003
Thanks for your response. I understand where you're coming from now.
No one is expecting M/C or the Parsons to start winning titles when they go Senior next season. They will struggle like most new Senior teams do so what. But to say that a team like M/C aren't Senior material is nonsense too. I guarantee you that next season M/C will beat teams that have been on the Senior level for awhile and will beat teams at Nationals that are skating this season in Seniors. They will just have to work their way up the ladder like all teams have to.
