Ladies: US Nationals predictions as of now

silverlake22 said:

^^ I agree and think you could be right, I actually think Hannah and Angela will probably beat Caroline, and Leah is capable of doing so as well if good Leah shows up at Nationals instead of her evil twin. Hannah likely will stay tiny, but filling out or growing taller at all could hurt her already small jumps as we've seen a lot of skaters struggle with URs once they grow up physically, like Kanako and Mirai, and they had bigger jumps to begin with. But for now the jumps seem consistent enough and presentation is definitely a strength for Hannah. As for Angela I think nailing the SP will be key - she could likely still do well with a 3lz-2t as her combo instead of the 3-3, but any bigger error than that could hurt her a lot and effect her PCS in the FS and her ability to pull up in the rankings overall (we saw at the JGPF, even though she was 2nd in the FS, she still ended up a distant 4th overall after Hannah and Anna followed up their great SPs with programs almost as good as Angela's clean FS - and that was in a smaller and less deep field than Nationals).

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Wow poor Zhang, after all the work she did to make her comeback to being a contender again last year, she could be right down in the dumps again. I dont see anyway she duplicates her 4th place of last year though. Wagner, Nagasu, Gold, Gao, and Zawadzki are almost certain to beat her. Then there are atleast 5 others who could. I would project a finish of about 8th for her this year if I had to guess, but if she skates really well could be 5th to 7th, and if she doesnt could even be in a really dreaded spot like 11th.

used2sk8 said:

No one even mentions the qualifiers. All 3 winners have high scores (and PC 2nd place). There was no inflation, they had to earn those scores. Vanessa with 177+ only Ashley is higher. Samantha 163+, Ashley Cain, Courtney 161+. Those are good scores with local judges not used to the PCS inflation. Don't count them out. Programs are on Ice Network.

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Vanessa Lam's scores are quite inflated, IMO. I mean, internationally at junior events she usually scores in the 140s, she was 13th at Junior Worlds, scoring 138 points.... Her international PB is only 156 points, her PCS rarely break the 6s. Domestic judges didn't give her edge calls for her obvious flutz, gave her positive GOEs for jumps that barely leave the ice, and the PCS marks she got were way higher than she's received internationally. If the judges at Nationals want to do the same thing, they can, but she really should not be sent to JW as there are so many other ladies the international judges clearly think are much better (Wang, Miller, Cesario, even Barbie Long in juniors).

Cesario I think could be a spoiler, and maybe Siraj as she seems to be returning to form and both are pretty strong presentation wise. Cesario also reportedly has a 3lo-3lo and her jumps are huge. Cain doesn't really have content to be competitive, no 3f really and her 3lz is iffy, no 3-3, and also hasn't had good international scores, and Lam too it's sort of a content issue, her spins are nice, but she has no 3-3, no 3s, her 3lz is a flutz, the jumps are smaller than Miller's, her presentation isn't nearly as good as Miller, and her FS is pretty frontloaded. Maybe she can make top 10 with generous scoring but idk, Vanessa has never impressed me much, she also needs to work on that posture, shoulders are always up by her ears, very distracting.

But, what about the Junior Ladies? Miller, Wang, Keiser and Gold are all competing as Seniors, what about Hicks and Lam? Are they going to compete in Senior or Junior? If they are Seniors, too, who will win the Junior title? Edmunds? Long? Chen?

FSGMT said:

But, what about the Junior Ladies? Miller, Wang, Keiser and Gold are all competing as Seniors, what about Hicks and Lam? Are they going to compete in Senior or Junior? If they are Seniors, too, who will win the Junior title? Edmunds? Long? Chen?

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Hicks and Lam are both skating in the senior ladies field at Nationals, this will be Lam's 3rd senior Nationals, she was 7th in 2011 and 9th last year. They finished 1st and 2nd at PACS. Hicks IIRC was going to make her senior debut at Nationals last season but withdrew after she got injured, so this will be her debut.

Junior ladies title will most likely go to Edmunds or Long, with Chen and Bell as potential spoilers. Edmunds and Long have both skated very well this fall though and both have 3lz-3t in the SP and FS (Edmunds also has a 3f-3t in her FS and Long a 2a-3t). Karen Chen has been trying 3lz-3lo but the 3lo is usually <. If she can avoid URs Edmunds is most likely to win, as she's a bit stronger in spins and components compared to Long.

i forgot all about courtney since we haven't seen her in a while. the only things she really has that are strong are her jumps and those aren't even consistent from what i remember, and her skating skills. her spins are ok and i CANNOT stand her choreography. i know i'm being critical but i feel like all of her programs have the same arm movements etc. she doesn't excite me. but i do think she'll be top 10 IF she is clean.

i agree that long or edmunds will win juniors but i think edmunds has the edge with better PCS. chen is also very good and i am a huge fan of her mature skating. mariah is a lovely skater but is inconsistent. and i think she'll wind up in 4th, maybe 3rd.

macy said:

i forgot all about courtney since we haven't seen her in a while. the only things she really has that are strong are her jumps and those aren't even consistent from what i remember, and her skating skills. her spins are ok and i CANNOT stand her choreography. i know i'm being critical but i feel like all of her programs have the same arm movements etc. she doesn't excite me. but i do think she'll be top 10 IF she is clean.

i agree that long or edmunds will win juniors but i think edmunds has the edge with better PCS. chen is also very good and i am a huge fan of her mature skating. mariah is a lovely skater but is inconsistent. and i think she'll wind up in 4th, maybe 3rd.

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Then we agree, because I think Polina should be able to beat Barbie too if she skates well. Barbie has a nice look on the ice but is quite unrefined and rough around the edges at this point, and her PCS scores consistently reflect that (they aren't horrible, but not great for someone of her technical prowess). Polina is a little gangly and coltish still, but her presentation has gotten pretty nice this season, her PCS marks have been pretty strong at some competitions, and she scored the highest of all the junior ladies who will be at Nationals at Sectionals. URs could be a factor, but Barbie sometimes struggles with those too. In any event, I think we can expect to see a lot of impressive jump content from the junior ladies this season!

I also agree about Hicks. And I'd maybe have more faith in Lam if she could improve her posture, jump a little higher, and looked older than about 12 (I know she's turning 18 this year, but when your that tiny, choosing costumes with the butt ruffle "skirts" don't do anything to give one a more mature appearance and tend to do quite the opposite...). Maybe she'll show up to Nationals much improved though, who knows.

i would like caroline zhang in top 3 however-since most post and the u.s. has put in the bottom feeder of the practice sessions. i don't see any hope.
it has been like this for her since she jumped up.

mirai is over hyped and over talked, she is okay when she want's to be.but than why fight knowing full well in advance the federation, judges are going to hold you up for your screwups.

my pick is
ashley -gold
mirai-silver call it a gut feeling, i just can't shake it.
agnes-bronze
gracie pewter
christina 5th
alissa -6th.

caroline zhang should be up there. however with the u.s not holding spots open for her and putting on subs list, i doubt it. i want her too, but serioulsy doubt it. they haven't held her up before, why not. she always had to fight where the other skaters could slide, skate by-messy.

1 Wagner
2 Nagasu
3 Gold
4 Zawadzki
5 Czisny
6 Gao

Junior

1 Chen
2 Miller
3 Edmunds
4 Long
5 Keiser

Miller, Wang & Keiser will all be competing as Senior Ladies:

Consequently, they won't be winning the Juniors competition.

http://web.icenetwork.com/documents/2012/11/29/40457618/1/2013-usfcs-qualifiers.pdf

I wouldn't mind seeing Wang, Miller or Keiser sneaking in for a bronze or pewter.

I'd be happy with any combination of Wagner, Gold, Nagasu, Zawadzki, Gao (in no specific order).

This is even better than I remembered it:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uLerjOGQ47M

Sure would be wonderful to see this smile again. Go Mirai.

Layfan thank you for posting that I have to agree, I hope to see that smile again. Go Mirai!!

I'm thinking...
1. Ashley - hope she's healthy
2. Gold - not sure about this at all, but it's a feeling I have
3. Christina - I would like for her to get 2nd, but afraid she may have peaked too early in the season
4. Mirai - she frustrates me sometimes - so much talent, but she hasn't really been able to capitalize on it yet!
5. Agnes - I think some year she will be the National Champion, but we saw at NHK she doesn't quite have it all together yet

Butterscotch17 said:

I'm thinking...
1. Ashley - hope she's healthy
2. Gold - not sure about this at all, but it's a feeling I have
3. Christina - I would like for her to get 2nd, but afraid she may have peaked too early in the season
4. Mirai - she frustrates me sometimes - so much talent, but she hasn't really been able to capitalize on it yet!
5. Agnes - I think some year she will be the National Champion, but we saw at NHK she doesn't quite have it all together yet

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I completely agree with your predictions, they are exactly mine:
1 Wagner: I hope she's healthy and skates well, even if I would like her to try at least the 2A+3T
2 Gold: I think that the judges expect her to skate well, and she is the best jumper of the competition so, if she nails a clean SP and a decent FS, the silver shouldn't eb a problem for her
3 Gao: I think that the battle for the bronze will be between her and Nagasu, but Christina doesn't have the UR issues and she skated three very good FS in the GP, the biggest problem for her is the SP: if she lands the 3-3, she's ok
4 Nagasu: her problem is the opposite: if she is able to avoid a couple of UR in the FS and her nerves don't block her, she should be close to Gao
5 Zawadzki: she could be high in the SP, but the FS is her enemy, she doesn't ahve the loop and she tends to make mistakes...
It will be an interesting battle, but the thing that I hope the most is that the USFSA sends to 4CC and Worlds the skaters that deserve it!

Nationals has become more difficult to predict since Ashley's injury. But I hope she's well and is training well.

1. Ashley
2. Mirai
3. Christina

ah, that would be so lovely.

it'd be lovely for Mirai to win too. But I really also want Ashley to defend her title. Wish there could be a tie

Here's the podium as I see it:
1) Ashley - this is a bold pick
2) Gracie - She gets pretty good PCS but will separate herself from the field with her TES
3) Mirai - She is still a good skater but after watching her programs from 2010 Olympics her jumps have declined in quality significantly since then.
4) Agnes - She is experienced enough to skate two solid programs, but it would not surprise me if Christina or Vanessa finished 4th

1/2 Ashley or Gracie
3 Christina (but I really hope she's 1st or 2nd!)
4/5 Mirai or Agnes

I really would be surprised if the results deviated from this

drivingmissdaisy said:

Here's the podium as I see it:
1) Ashley - this is a bold pick
2) Gracie - She gets pretty good PCS but will separate herself from the field with her TES
3) Mirai - She is still a good skater but after watching her programs from 2010 Olympics her jumps have declined in quality significantly since then.
4) Agnes - She is experienced enough to skate two solid programs, but it would not surprise me if Christina or Vanessa finished 4th

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I hope 2010 wasn't Mirai's peak. She was so good that year - she had gotten used to her new body and had great choreo, coaching and the fire of it being an Olympic year. Plus she was the underdog which is obviously the way she likes it. She's obviously had more significant body changes since - as we women all know we go through it at around 15/16 then 17/18 - as well as whatever training and coaching and mental difficulties she might have been facing.
Anyway, it reminds me of Kimmie Meissner - another 16-year-old up and commer who had her best year during an Olympic year when she was not the favorite. Everyone expected Kimmie to stay on top but it didn't happen for various reasons. It's like both Mirai and Kimmie were the creme de la creme that year but didn't really know it. At least Kimmie didn't get psyched out and got her world gold!

I still think Mirai can get back on top. You go girl!!!

Layfan said:

I hope 2010 wasn't Mirai's peak. She was so good that year - she had gotten used to her new body and had great choreo, coaching and the fire of it being an Olympic year. Plus she was the underdog which is obviously the way she likes it. She's obviously had more significant body changes since - as we women all know we go through it at around 15/16 then 17/18 - as well as whatever training and coaching and mental difficulties she might have been facing.
Anyway, it reminds me of Kimmie Meissner - another 16-year-old up and commer who had her best year during an Olympic year when she was not the favorite. Everyone expected Kimmie to stay on top but it didn't happen for various reasons. It's like both Mirai and Kimmie were the creme de la creme that year but didn't really know it. At least Kimmie didn't get psyched out and got her world gold!

I still think Mirai can get back on top. You go girl!!!

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Mirai's story is similar but Kimmie's story ended much quicker. Kimmie capitalized on the lack of competition and mistakes of others to win her world title (as everyone should) so that was probably the highlight of her career. She did well in 2007 until she got to worlds and then after that it was all downhill. By the end of that next season she was gone.

Mirai has had middle of the pack seasons since Vancouver but, unlike Kimmie, she's still in the fight. Like Kimmie she has had to adjust to body changes but, unlike Kimmie, Mirai's body changes haven't killed her ability to land a jump. Kimmie simply couldn't rotate anymore; Mirai has UR issues (like she's always had) but they aren't nearly as severe and detrimental as Kimmie's issues were. I remember in 2008 Kimmie landed a number of jumps 1/2 a turn short; it made for some pretty ugly falls.

Mirai is re-surging this season and, if she keeps it up, has a good shot at making her 2nd Olympic team.

As for my predictions:

1. Ashley - She's not in defend mode; she's in fight mode...that's why she'll be able to defend
2. Mirai - She's gotten stronger with every competition
3. Gracie - She'll do well in the SP but I think her first-time nerves will keep her out of the top 2
4. Christina - Something may be missing...then again maybe not...she's definitely the darkhorse of this competition
5. Angela - Equal to Gracie in firepower but suffers from SP nerves plus lack of rep means she probably won't make the podium
6. Agnes - I think she'll do well in one program and flub the other
7. Alissa - I don't think she'll do enough to be competitive with the top but I'm hoping she doesn't tank
8. Courtney - Big jumps, one interesting spin, but terrible presentation won't get her into the top 5
9. Hannah - Lots of spunk but lack of presences and small jumps
10. Vanessa - Jumps aren't getting any bigger, probably a lot of UR calls

The only one I'm pretty sure about is Ashley. I honestly think 2-4 will be some combination of Mirai, Gracie and Christina. If Mirai skates cleanly and with some spark as she has been lately, she has a good shot at that 2nd spot. Gracie has the jumps and if she lands them she'll be 2nd; however, I'm not sold on her ability to land all of them as she has yet to come close this season. Christina is the darkhorse b/c if she lands her jumps and skates well she'll have the ability to score very well.

We'll see what happens...

1-Ashley
2-Gracie
3-Mirai
4-Agnes
5-Alissa
6-Christina