Of course, I know that the women's tournament at the Grand Prix has already been discussed, especially since I myself participated a bit in this. But this discussion was more emotional than constructive. In any case, I do not intend to talk here about the final, which can hardly be called anything other than a disaster. The question is different - was this catastrophe an ordinary accident, or did some negative processes naturally lead to it? I will try to answer this question by analyzing the protocols of performances of skaters at all six qualifying stages of the Grand Prix of this year and similar protocols for last year. Of course, this set of data will not be enough for a full-fledged statistical study, but what is available may give rise to certain reflections.
A literal comparison of the scores obtained by skaters at one or another stage of the Grand Prix is probably the most dubious way to determine whether the level of competition has increased or decreased during the year. In addition, before the start of the current season, the rules for scoring have changed. Therefore, I propose to use a different, hypothetical, criterion - the effectiveness of performing of the main elements of skating.
By efficiency, I mean the percentage of successful attempts to complete an element. In this case, the attempt is considered successful if the skater received a score higher than the base value of the element, or at least a score equal to the base value. It doesn't always mean perfect performance. For example, at the Grand Prix stage in Finland, the protocol contains the following lines:
“3Lz+3Tq q 11.11 x 0.17” (free skate Mai Mihara)
“3Lz!+3T ! 10.10 0.08” (free skate Mana Kawabe)
I will consider both of these attempts successful, despite the marks of the judges, because in both cases, points were obtained that exceeded the base value of the cascade. At the same time, if the protocol, for example, says “2Lz” where the skater planned to perform 3Lz, then I will consider such an attempt unsuccessful even with a positive GOE (such cases sometimes happen), since the score will still be lower than the base value of 3Lz .
Sources:
http://www.isuresults.com/results/season2122/gpusa2021/
http://www.isuresults.com/results/season2122/gpcan2021/
http://www.isuresults.com/results/season2122/gpita2021/
http://www.isuresults.com/results/season2122/gpjpn2021/
http://www.isuresults.com/results/season2122/gpfra2021/
http://www.isuresults.com/results/season2122/gprus2021/
http://www.isuresults.com/results/season2223/gpusa2022/
http://www.isuresults.com/results/season2223/gpcan2022/
http://www.isuresults.com/results/season2223/gpfra2022/
http://www.isuresults.com/results/season2223/gpgbr2022/
http://www.isuresults.com/results/season2223/gpjpn2022/
http://www.isuresults.com/results/season2223/gpfin2022/
I will start the analysis with the effectiveness of solo triple jumps. It is clear that any skater taking part in the Grand Prix must be able to perform these elements - otherwise, he will doom himself to defeat even before the start of the competition.
The statistics for each of the triple jump attempts in 2021 (with the exception of the triple Axel, which, like other elements of ultra-c, will not be counted here) can be shown in the form of the following table:
Table J2021
The number of successful attempts is given in parentheses. Each of the lines corresponds to one of the stages of the Grand Prix (chronological order is observed). The last two lines sum up - the total number of attempts, in parentheses - the number of successful attempts, as well as the efficiency, expressed as a percentage.
A similar table for the 2022 Grand Prix looks like this:
Table J2022
The difference between 2021 and 2022 is pretty obvious and hard to miss. And the first thing that catches your eye is the sharply reduced efficiency of 3F execution. However, the performance of 3Lz also decreased markedly.
A literal comparison of the scores obtained by skaters at one or another stage of the Grand Prix is probably the most dubious way to determine whether the level of competition has increased or decreased during the year. In addition, before the start of the current season, the rules for scoring have changed. Therefore, I propose to use a different, hypothetical, criterion - the effectiveness of performing of the main elements of skating.
By efficiency, I mean the percentage of successful attempts to complete an element. In this case, the attempt is considered successful if the skater received a score higher than the base value of the element, or at least a score equal to the base value. It doesn't always mean perfect performance. For example, at the Grand Prix stage in Finland, the protocol contains the following lines:
“3Lz+3Tq q 11.11 x 0.17” (free skate Mai Mihara)
“3Lz!+3T ! 10.10 0.08” (free skate Mana Kawabe)
I will consider both of these attempts successful, despite the marks of the judges, because in both cases, points were obtained that exceeded the base value of the cascade. At the same time, if the protocol, for example, says “2Lz” where the skater planned to perform 3Lz, then I will consider such an attempt unsuccessful even with a positive GOE (such cases sometimes happen), since the score will still be lower than the base value of 3Lz .
Sources:
http://www.isuresults.com/results/season2122/gpusa2021/
http://www.isuresults.com/results/season2122/gpcan2021/
http://www.isuresults.com/results/season2122/gpita2021/
http://www.isuresults.com/results/season2122/gpjpn2021/
http://www.isuresults.com/results/season2122/gpfra2021/
http://www.isuresults.com/results/season2122/gprus2021/
http://www.isuresults.com/results/season2223/gpusa2022/
http://www.isuresults.com/results/season2223/gpcan2022/
http://www.isuresults.com/results/season2223/gpfra2022/
http://www.isuresults.com/results/season2223/gpgbr2022/
http://www.isuresults.com/results/season2223/gpjpn2022/
http://www.isuresults.com/results/season2223/gpfin2022/
I will start the analysis with the effectiveness of solo triple jumps. It is clear that any skater taking part in the Grand Prix must be able to perform these elements - otherwise, he will doom himself to defeat even before the start of the competition.
The statistics for each of the triple jump attempts in 2021 (with the exception of the triple Axel, which, like other elements of ultra-c, will not be counted here) can be shown in the form of the following table:
Table J2021
The number of successful attempts is given in parentheses. Each of the lines corresponds to one of the stages of the Grand Prix (chronological order is observed). The last two lines sum up - the total number of attempts, in parentheses - the number of successful attempts, as well as the efficiency, expressed as a percentage.
A similar table for the 2022 Grand Prix looks like this:
Table J2022
The difference between 2021 and 2022 is pretty obvious and hard to miss. And the first thing that catches your eye is the sharply reduced efficiency of 3F execution. However, the performance of 3Lz also decreased markedly.