LOL. Arakawa would blow 2002 medalists out of the water. Her skating skill and her programs are better than all of them. Her jumps were so secure, with huge speed going in and out. Her spiral put all of their spirals to shame. She maximized her COP spins to get the highest level.
In 1998, Michelle and Tara are little girls, skating next to a lady. Shizuka would get higher presentation, for sure. And you think Chen Lu can beat Shizuka? Only with an insane panel of judges.
In 2010, her actual programs wouldn't beat Yuna, might not beat Mao, but definitely above Joannie. And she was playing safe to make sure she get a medal. If she skated anything like practice, I think she would challenge Yuna. In 2006, the GOE and PCS were relatively low for everyone, and with a really safe content, she still beat Mirai's score. How would she place 5th?
I agree that in any era Shizuka at her best would do pretty spectacularly.
In 1998, though, I have to disagree just to say that Michelle didn't skate like a little girl at that time. (I know I'm biased, but she did have a mature style, and she completed her moves beautifully and indisputably expressed the music.) Tara certainly skated like a child, albeit a very talented one. Whether Shizuka at her best would have beaten Michelle at that Olympics would not have depended on the comparative maturity of the two skaters.
As you say, Arakawa would have had the edge in terms of jumps, partly because Michelle had lost training time to the stress fracture and didn't have the triple-triple. Fair enough. On those terms, I wouldn't have minded Arakawa beating Michelle for the gold. I did mind Tara beating her because her overall style was so meatless compared to Michelle's.