Idea: Probability poll?

[clairecloutier]

Here's an idea, kind of silly, but might be fun. My husband is a Notre Dame football fan, and apparently their main fan site, ND Nation, does an annual Probability Poll. The idea is that fans rank the probability of the team winning each game, and from that, they get overall season predictions. I wonder if we could do something like this for skating, might be fun. I have no idea how to set it up though.

http://ndnation.com/archives/3992?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=pulsenews

 

[Olympia]

Fortunately, we have math experts here at GS!

 

[FSGMT]

Thank you for this suggestion, I would LOVE doing that!! It's basically similar to the GP predictions game we had last year... If anyone wants to organize it, I will surely play!!:yes:

 

[samson]

Count me in.

 

[tulosai]

I don't think I'm sophisticated enough to do this but I'd be willing to organize something like the GP predictions again for this year (assuming Macassar88 doesn't want to take charge of it again) if people are interested in playing again. I think I'd only have people predict the top 3 not the top 5 finishers at each event if I were in charge of it though- I was part of the 'scoring' last year and it was really time consuming to do 5. This is only if people are interested in doing it again though (and only if Macassar88 is not planning to organize again).

 

[Mrs. P]

I don't think I'm sophisticated enough to do this but I'd be willing to organize something like the GP predictions again for this year (assuming Macassar88 doesn't want to take charge of it again) if people are interested in playing again. I think I'd only have people predict the top 3 not the top 5 finishers at each event if I were in charge of it though- I was part of the 'scoring' last year and it was really time consuming to do 5. This is only if people are interested in doing it again though (and only if Macassar88 is not planning to organize again).

Here is the thread from last year's game: http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/showthread.php?38170-Grand-Prix-Early-Predictions-Game

I think the GP predictions game got a great response and I agree tulosai, it was quite challenging to score top 5. I think could do top three and simply the scoring (which was based on on the skater's total competition score).
If you get the ranking correct = 100 percent
1 place off = 66 percent of the score
2 places off = 33 percent of the score.

ETA: On the other hand, I think the appeal of Top 5 is that people usually could get the top three somewhat right but then 4 or 5 had a lot of different answers...

FWIW, I created a formula last year when I did my scoring where all you had to do was plug in the scores and you magically got the points earned (depending on placement relative to prediction); I'd be glad to share it to make the scoring easier.

 

[tulosai]

Here is the thread from last year's game: http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/showthread.php?38170-Grand-Prix-Early-Predictions-Game

I think the GP predictions game got a great response and I agree tulosai, it was quite challenging to score top 5. I think could do top three and simply the scoring (which was based on on the skater's total competition score).
If you get the ranking correct = 100 percent
1 place off = 66 percent of the score
2 places off = 33 percent of the score.

Yes, that's exactly what I'd recommend

 

[Mrs. P]

Well we have another two months before things get underway for Grand Prix...

Another thing, do we want to limit it to just grand prix? We could do senior b's too...maybe they could be worth less or something....and than worlds and 4CC/Euros can be worth more than GPSs...

 

[Macassar88]

I don't think I'm sophisticated enough to do this but I'd be willing to organize something like the GP predictions again for this year (assuming Macassar88 doesn't want to take charge of it again) if people are interested in playing again. I think I'd only have people predict the top 3 not the top 5 finishers at each event if I were in charge of it though- I was part of the 'scoring' last year and it was really time consuming to do 5. This is only if people are interested in doing it again though (and only if Macassar88 is not planning to organize again).

Thanks for the personal attack. If you actually bothered to think about what was going on behind the scenes, you would know that I wasn't the only one doing the scores. I asked people for help doing scoring, and people volunteered. There were some mistakes, but things like that happen when people are adding up hundreds of scores by hand.

It's very easy to throw stones and tear down other people's work when you aren't doing anything about it yourself.

 

[ForeverFish]

Not that I would ever presume to put words in another's mouth, but I don't think that tulosai intended to offend. I greatly appreciated your efforts last season, Macassar88, and as (I'm certain) did all of the other participants.

I'm no math expert, but I would be more than willing to assist in the score-keeping/tallying this year.

 

[Mrs. P]

Thanks for the personal attack. If you actually bothered to think about what was going on behind the scenes, you would know that I wasn't the only one doing the scores. I asked people for help doing scoring, and people volunteered. There were some mistakes, but things like that happen when people are adding up hundreds of scores by hand.

It's very easy to throw stones and tear down other people's work when you aren't doing anything about it yourself.

?????

She wasn't attacking you...just making a suggestion regarding the scoring. And she was one of the people who help score..so she was aware of what was going on behind the scenes...

ETA: I agree with FF, that no one is taking issue with the game or how you ran it... Quite the opposite, actually!

 

[Macassar88]

?????

She wasn't attacking you...just making a suggestion regarding the scoring. And she was one of the people who help score..so she was aware of what was going on behind the scenes...

So saying that she'd only be willing to play if I wasn't in charge isn't a personal attack?

 

[ForeverFish]

So saying that she'd only be willing to play if I wasn't in charge isn't a personal attack?

I believe what she was trying to say was that she would ORGANIZE the event (and thus make the change from top 5 to top 3) if you were not in charge.

 

[Macassar88]

If she meant that she would take charge if no one else was already doing it, then I'm sorry. I thought she meant that she wouldn't participate in anything that I was in charge of.

 

[Mrs. P]

So saying that she'd only be willing to play if I wasn't in charge isn't a personal attack?

Uh the opposite. I took it as she was taking deference to you on her suggestion, ie she would see if you wanted to organize it and if others wanted to do it again, before she would act on the suggestion.

 

[Macassar88]

Uh the opposite. I took it as she was taking deference to you on her suggestion, ie she would see if you wanted to organize it and if others wanted to do it again, before she would act on the suggestion.

Yeah - I thought she meant that, because she didn't think that I did a good job last year, that she would refuse to participate in anything that I was running.

It was a misunderstanding.

Regardless, this idea does sound like something interesting.

 

[Mrs. P]

Yeah - I thought she meant that, because she didn't think that I did a good job last year, that she would refuse to participate in anything that I was running.

It was a misunderstanding.

Regardless, this idea does sound like something interesting.

Glad we got that settled. So any thoughts on how to proceed?

 

[Macassar88]

Glad we got that settled. So any thoughts on how to proceed?

I like the idea that someone posted in the first page.

I think that one thing to make sure of is that we don't do it the same way that the USFSA one does that way we can have some variation.

 

[FSGMT]

Well we have another two months before things get underway for Grand Prix...

Another thing, do we want to limit it to just grand prix? We could do senior b's too...maybe they could be worth less or something....and than worlds and 4CC/Euros can be worth more than GPSs...

Yeah, I would love having a whole-season-long predictions game! I actually suggested it last year but no-one answered (you were probably too exhausted after all the calculating! )

 

[Macassar88]

I wonder if there is anyone here who is good with computer science who might know how to make a code to calculate everything.
I think there could be a way of doing it in excel but I'm not completely sure how it would work. Maybe if the point values for each competitor had their own cells and the points for each participant in the game were sums of those cells multiplied by the appropriate fraction so that the computer would do the rest of the work?

Example: you put Yuna's score in box A1, Caro's score in A2 and then my points would be 1*A1+.5*A2 or something like that.