Is Flatt USA's best hope for 3 in LA?

[HCOSurfer]

No, based on the fact that she has horrid jumping technique. I feel like her technique may get the best of her unless she completely fixes it.

 

[feraina]

I just watched Ashley's SP in high resolution. Wow, she's really a changed skater! She's skating with much more power and speed, deeper musical connection, and a real sense of maturity and elegance that I hadn't seen before. Her spins are much better. I mean, she always had a beautiful classic layback position, but now she has much better centering, speed, and stretch in the layback (but what is it with every lady now attempting a "pearl"? It's the new Biellman, I feel like we're starting to see all the ladies putting it into their spin repertoire), and her sit spin also got faster and with more stretch. I remember she often didn't point her toe in the past, and that really ruined (for me) the line in her spins and spirals and some transition movements, but that thought didn't occur to me once this time -- Priscilla really got her to pay attention to these little details, that's great!

It's true that she's still looking very deliberate and practiced in her arm and shoulder movements. I'm sure Priscilla has her really working hard on these things, so it probably still all feels very new and self-conscious for her right now, but I think in time this awkwardness will go away, and then we'll be left with a more natural and polished artist in Ashley. I can't wait. :agree:

What worries me most about Ashley is that she really filled out compared to the last two seasons (and her body already looked pretty mature back then too), and her jumps seem to be lower than in the past. She was never a particularly fast rotator in the air, but now she's not getting the height either. I remember her (f)lutz used to be quite high -- this time it was clearly under-rotated, she was really lucky not to be downgraded, and of course it's still a flutz. But in fact, her flip was also short on rotation and would've probably been downgraded by a stricter tech panel, like the one at SA. Even the 2A was slightly under-rotated, though maybe not more than 1/2 turn.

But in general, she skated her SP with quite a bit of energy and speed, and it never felt slow or heavy to me (except maybe the second half of the footwork sequence), so I think she can probably get those jumps fully rotated if she worked on her techniques more. I think it was awesome that Priscilla got her to work on presentation, and it will really improve her PCS in the long run, which is incredibly valuable, but then it'll be time to hunker down on the technical side so that she can ride out the puberty monster smoothly.

 

[PolymerBob]

No, based on the fact that she has horrid jumping technique. I feel like her technique may get the best of her unless she completely fixes it.

Before we say Caroline has horrid jumping technique, let's wait until we see it. She apparently was recovering from tendonitis and an ankle sprain at Skate Canada, which could force her into bad jump technique.

I wasn’t there, but every report from Golden West that I've read indicated her technique and speed were much improved …… AND ….. that scores from that competition do not seem significantly inflated. I am attempting to procure a DVD of that competition, but the company that recorded it doesn’t condescend to answer their messages.

 

[mskater93]

What worries me most about Ashley is that she really filled out compared to the last two seasons (and her body already looked pretty mature back then too), and her jumps seem to be lower than in the past. She was never a particularly fast rotator in the air, but now she's not getting the height either. I remember her (f)lutz used to be quite high -- this time it was clearly under-rotated, she was really lucky not to be downgraded, and of course it's still a flutz. But in fact, her flip was also short on rotation and would've probably been downgraded by a stricter tech panel, like the one at SA. Even the 2A was slightly under-rotated, though maybe not more than 1/2 turn..

I saw Wagner in person at the DuPage Open less than 2 months ago, and she is VERY petite but strong looking. I think what you are seeing as "filled out" is the full skirt she's wearing for her SP as opposed to her being built truly like a woman.

The Lutz was slightly less than 1/4 under-rotated but she was back on her heel because she finished the rotation late and hadn't pressed it tight to check out, flip was IJS clean, and 2A was IJS clean - I've watched the program several times and slowed down the landings and am a skater myself, so it's not as if I don't know what I am looking at . The panel at CoC seemed pretty strict in their calls, and especially Ashley's 2A is right in the middle of the ice, you'd think they'd call it "<" if it didn't meet the rules!

 

[fairly4]

the way they are scoring Caroline Zhang(purposely keeping her scores lower)She ISNT GOING TO Make WORLDS let ALONE finish inthe podium at nationals.
Becauseof the Brouhaha at last year nationalsfor Mirai winning nationals (rigged atnationals)and winning jr nationals. she is still in the running.Because the USFSA want kimmie,miraiand rachel and NOT Caroline Zhang.They will probably go and Ashely (who hasn't improved) has an outside shot and maybe Alissay. of nationals last year against Caroline and favorited for Kimmie,Rachel, Ashley and Mirai. Caroline Zhang doesn't have a shot surprise (chinese descent). a
Rachel with NO COMPETITION outside of Caroline Kostnerat cup of russia how will come in 2nd or win. will go to world and alsobecause of the buildup at Nationals and JrWorlds and nationals last year.

 

[lmarie086]

entire post

For real? Ashley Wagner hasn't improved at all? I beg to differ; out of the entire US ladies podium at Nationals last season, Ashley has emerged this season looking the most ladylike and, IMO, with the best programs of all four. There is, again in my eyes, a significantly different quality to her skating this season and she is working on the jumps. I think she'll get them as the season goes on.

Mirai was a bit overscored in the SP at Nationals (not to take anything away from her; she was truly amazing but the score was a bit high) and that is why she won. Otherwise it probably would have been Rachael Flatt.

I haven't really seen Rachael receive any favor from the USFSA, for all that she's the current junior world champion. If anyone, Caroline Zhang and Mirai are probably the two they'd love to really promote. IMHO, they would have loved to crown Caroline champion last season, but her SP was pretty awful. And as of right now, Caroline is struggling quite a bit with the jumps. She needs to rework those jumps really soon, or her career won't be going anywhere. I did read on this board that she was doing the lutz and flip correctly until she had an injury, so if that is actually true then she needs to readjust and start using proper technique again, as well as stop underrotating (which judging by her remarks in the KnC at TEB, she recognizes quite easily). Caroline also needs a major overhaul on her 2A; the way she slows down completely was going to hurt sooner or later and it did in the SP yesterday. Once she starts performing more consistently, the PCS will probably go up.

Unless Kimmie improves massively at CoR I can't see the USFSA favoring her. It wouldn't make any sense.

Please stop making Caroline's no-wins about racism because IMO that is really not the case.

 

[dorispulaski]

On a positive note, Caroline's final Layback, Level4, got the best GOE of any skill from any competitor I have ever seen. She got all 3's and one 1. A-mazing. Sadly, her jumps all looked very difficult for her in one way or another. I hope she spends time with a jump coach. Maybe whomever Joannie Rochette went to to fix her lutz/flip.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

What's Happening for the GP Final? After 4 events and only 2 to go.

Kim and Rochette each have 30 points and easily qualify for the Finals.
(no other skater can garner30 points.)

Ando has 24 points and no other events
Zhang has 18 points and no other events

skaters who are still possible to make the Finals:
Suguri, Nakano and Asado each have 13 points and skate in Russia (Fumie) and Japan (Nakano and Asado)

Skaters with 11 points: Czisny and Lepisto. (Czisny in Russia; Lepisto in Japan)

Skaters with 9 points: Flat; Kostner; Wagner, Gimazetdinova.

Now you figure out who will be the FAB SIX

My guess would be:

Kim, Rochette
Asado, Kostner, Ando, Lepisto. (but don't hold me to it!)

 

[dorispulaski]

Well, Kim & Rochette are already in.
My guess is Asada and Nakano will be 1st and 2nd at NHK and if so, they'll be in.
Looking at the lineups, perhaps Miki will make it in with 24, based on the 2nd tiebreaker.

That leaves the other 3 girls at NHK out of it
Lepisto has 11
Wagner has 9
Nagasu has 7

At best one of these finished 3rd. Even if it's Lepisto, she has no more than 22 points total

Cup of Russia is a real crap shoot though. And 1 or 2 of these girls will be going.

COR
Flatt is the only relatively consistent one of the group, but she hasn't been getting high PCS this year. Plus she gets an edge call or two.

Suguri 13 3rd or better 24
Czisny 11 2nd or better 24
Flatt 9 If she wins 24.
Kostner 9 If she wins 24.
Meissner 3 She could win or finish 2nd and mess all the scores up. But no way can she go.

If Flatt, Kostner, Suguri or Czisny win, they will be going.
The trick is about the 2nd place skater, and whether they outpoint
Miki. If Suguri finishes 2nd, she's going. If Csizny finished 2nd, if she scores well, she's going.

At 24, there's a tiebreaker with Miki over who earned the highest total score in the 2 events.

 

[bekalc]

At 24, there's a tiebreaker with Miki over who earned the highest total score in the 2 events.

I believe the first tie breaker is (highest placed finish) Honestly, I saw let's watch and see what happens in Japan too.. Because with the way Mao skated was not great, and who knows what could happen in Japan now...

 

[dorispulaski]

That is the first tie breaker, but all with 24 points at that point in the breakdown have one 2nd and one 3rd, so you go to the 2nd tie breaker, which is most total points.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

^^^ i agree but I believe there will be more tiebreaking in the ladies. Miki's btw has the lesser of two scores in the first competition. But still......

IMO, COR is less intense than NHK.

Supposed Locks in COR would be Kostner and Suguri leaving Flat will only a bronze or maybe better.

IN NHK. There is a powerhouse of hometown skaters: Asado, Nakano, and Suzuki The last named has only this event but she could make a difference for others looking for points. It seems to me to be an uphill battle for Lepisto and Wagner.

 

[dorispulaski]

Joe, I agree about NHK, but nothing's locked at COR. If it were, Kostner wouldn't be coming into this one with a 4th only.

 

[berrycute]

Probably why because they cheated for her and Mirai at Skate America and ripped Caroline Zhang.

Memo to Caroline Zhang Get Out of figure skating
1) they aren't going to judge you fair and square. They are always going to call yours underroated because your are of Chinese descent and have not ties to Canada

Seriously? Uh, the Zhangs team get controversially high PCS and are Chinese. No Canadian links.

Most absurd accusation of racism ever...

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Joe, I agree about NHK, but nothing's locked at COR. If it were, Kostner wouldn't be coming into this one with a 4th only.

I based Suguri lock on her many podium getting past performances, and she seems to be very much on a roll here. I just think Kostner needs some luck which usually comes to her when least expected. Not good reasons, I know but not much else to go on. While I would love to see an Amercian lady in the Finals, Flatt did not rise to the occasion in SA, and Wagner has yet to prove herself dependable. These thoughts are not meant to be demeaning. If they do not make the Finals, it would still be nice if they put out strong performances and Czisny Too.