Skaters with highest chances for podium/Lucky draws for Grand Prix

[pangtongfan]

Gold or Sotnikova don't have a huge PCS advantage against Miyahara in the home advantage situation. Wagner was given the higher PCS than Mao at 2012 4CC (in fact, Wagner improved her PB by 25 points there). Sotnikova was given almost the same PCS with Kim (and higher than Kostner ) in Sochi. Osmond was given (you know) at SC two years ago. Hanyu's GPF win could be included as a good example. The same thing will happen in Osaka (Miyahara's home town). Because of the rule change, the JSF will try to prop up Miyahara with their best effort. Elevating her status and reputation should be the key to save three spots.

I agree. Fully expect farcial PCS for Miyahara just like Sotnikova got in Sochi, Osmond gets in Canada, Wagner used to get in U.S meets, and so on. I also wouldn't be surprised at all if Miyahara wins NHK this coming season.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

And what's to say Murakami won't get even more farcical PCS?

Miyahara might have significantly improved too over the summer in terms of speed and presentation and her jumps might be more rotated. The issue is her jumps are always borderline so you can never say for certain if the tech caller will be harsh or not - after all she received four UR calls at NHK last year, on home ice. And Murakami also received a brutal UR sheet at Saitama, also on home ice. Mao as well got UR calls. The Japanese (like most home ice skaters) might receive a massive PCS boost (eg Hanyu at the GPF) but the ladies' tech callers are still nailing them for URs instead of overlooking them because they happen to be on home ice.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

In short, it would be miraculous if Miyahara won but I'd certainly be thrilled for her. A 75% chance of her winning however is generous. More like a 75% chance of her medaling.

 

[NMURA]

Murakami was treated harshly because she was the clear #3 at worlds. If she was the #1 she would've medaled on home ice behind Lip and Kostner. Miyahara will be the #1 in Osaka because they can't put too much expectation on Murakami this season. She will be treated very generously as same as Hanyu in Sendai two years ago. There's no worry about URs. I mean, 75% is the chance of delivering justifiable performances regardless of others.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Murakami was treated harshly because she was the clear #3 at worlds. If she was the #1 she would've medaled on home ice behind Lip and Kostner. Miyahara will be the #1 in Osaka because they can't put too much expectation on Murakami this season. She will be treated very generously as same as Hanyu in Sendai two years ago. There's no worry about URs. I mean, 75% is the chance of delivering justifiable performances regardless of others.

I don't understand why they would place more expectation on Miyahara and less expectation on Murakami. Murakami had a poor placement at Worlds (although still top 10) and Olympics, but she beat Miyahara by over 10 points at 4CC to win the title, and placed 2nd at Japanese Nationals (to Miyahara's 4th). It makes no sense to say Miyahara will be the #1 because they don't want to put too much pressure on Murakami... it's like saying Machida will be touted as the #1 Japanese male because the Japanese can't put too much expectation on Hanyu. #1, #2, etc. has to do with ability and results, and it's very apparent that Murakami is the #1 Japanese female skater. I mean, when was the last time Miyahara beat Murakami?

It's also odd to say that Miyahara would have medalled at Saitama behind Lip and Kostner if Mao weren't there. There's no way Miyahara (personal best 186) would have beaten Pogorilaya (who got 197). Her personal best (which was obtained by a perfect FS at 4CC, and a near perfect SP) would have had to be improved by 7 points just to have placed in the top 7 in Saitama. Miyahara couldn't even reach the podium at Junior Worlds... so to suggest her going to Senior Worlds and making the podium if Mao and Suzuki weren't there is rather ridiculous.

It's also naive to say "there's no worry about URs". If anything is 75%, it's the certainty that Miyahara will get nailed with at least one UR. Unless her jumping has vastly improved over the summer and she's actually getting more height/spring. If anyone is going to get a break on their URs at NHK, it will be Murakami.

 

[Mrs. P]

Considering the previous prediction that "old maid" Akiko Suzuki would be discarded by JSF for Miyahara and not make the Olympics, I'm taking this prediction with a grain of salt.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Considering the previous prediction that "old maid" Akiko Suzuki would be discarded by JSF for Miyahara and not make the Olympics, I'm taking this prediction with a grain of salt.

True enough. Especially when that "old maid" won Japanese Nationals over Murakami, Mao, and Miyahara.

 

[dorispulaski]

Murakami had 6 UR jumps, NMURA.

Here's the video. How many of these jumps do you feel should have been called fully rotated?

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DdIxSeeeCY4

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I think Murukami is like Japan's version of Ashley Wagner. She's relatively consistent and able to produce decent results in big events, but has weaknesses that will prevent her from the highest placements at Worlds. Like Ashley, Murukami will be fully supported by her federation until it's clear a young skater will be able to present the skill set needed to compete for world medals. The days of Ashley winning on inflated PCS, like at 2013 Nationals, are over and at some point Murukami will not be held up against her talented peers.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Considering the previous prediction that "old maid" Akiko Suzuki would be discarded by JSF for Miyahara and not make the Olympics, I'm taking this prediction with a grain of salt.

She didn't give JSF that option with her marvelous performance at Japanese nationals. I didn't think Miyahara would overtake Akiko this year simply because the international judges still like Akiko very much, and Miyahara simply doesn't have the name recognition or the respect as a skater who won a world medal a few seasons ago.

 

[NMURA]

Murakami had 6 UR jumps, NMURA.

Here's the video. How many of these jumps do you feel should have been called fully rotated?

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DdIxSeeeCY4

No need of "fully rotated". Most of them are on borderline. It's up to the discretion of the caller. As CSG says, Miyahara's so-called URs are on borderline. Those "problems" will be suddenly resolved once she is recognized as the #1. And her PCS will rise to the level of Wagner at least. I think Miyahara has the definite edge against Murakami in mental strength, and she is fully committed for next four years. I'm sure she will be treated that way in this coming season.

On home ice, Wagner has improved her PB by 25 points suddenly.
Sotnikova 22 points. Hanyu 29 points....

other examples
D. Takahashi 30 points (2005 SA -> 2006 NHK)
Kozuka 28 points (2006 JW -> 2006 NHK)
Oda 20 points (2005 JW -> 2005 NHK)
Ando 28 points (2004 SA -> 2004 NHK)

Actually, NHK trophy is a very good place to make a splash.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

That's not how technical specialists work. They don't look at a replay and say "Oh, well this skater is the Japanese #1, so we'll dismiss any URs." Notice how Mao's 3F on her 3F+3L at Worlds last year was called as < even though most of us thought it was fine (and she certainly could have been given benefit of the doubt). Miyahara's are "borderline", and usually in the direction of UR rather than being given leniency. Any moderate to severe tech specialist will surely nail her on URs the way Murakami has been nailed (and the way Miyahara has been nailed in the past).

Your examples of improvement of PB are from ages ago (like, when CoP was in its early stages), as well as from Junior Worlds to the GP season (obviously a skater on the senior GP will get higher PCS than junior worlds, not to mention, they have extra elements in their programs so their overall score will be higher). Sotnikova is a rare example where her performing superior to any of her previous senior performances helped her smash her PB. Same went for Denis Ten at 2013 Worlds.

Miyahara however, pretty much maxed out her total score last season at 186 points (probably 190 if her 3-3 in the SP wasn't URed). In Saitama, there's still no way that would have beaten Pogorilaya, and most likely wouldn't have cracked the top 7.

Saying Miyahara's PCS will rise to the level of Wagner is just.... no. It's as delusional as certain people saying that Gold's PCS would rise to the level of Kim's/Kostner's/Asada's after she had claimed the US title.

Miyahara certainly has a shot to beat Murakami, but she will need to depend on Murakami messing up. That doesn't go the other way around though (Murakami needing Miyahara to mess up in order to beat her)... hence, logically speaking, Murakami is the better bet and Japanese #1.

 

[NMURA]

Mao's TES was 76+ something in the first place. That was too high considering a stepout on the 2A (no +3T). Probably the technical panel didn't want to make another "world record" with a flawed FS. Anyway, even chopping off 10 points would be enough to win the title. If they needed to overlook one or two, they would've done so.

Miyahara doesn't need to improve her PB 25 points in order to win NHK trophy. 10 points should be enough, which is probably possible even with a small error. Hope that she places in the top 3 at Skate Canada.

One thing sure is that any prediction premised on the scoring/reputations of last season will miss the mark, especially in the post-Olympic season.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

It's true that with a PB of 196 points stands a good chance of winning NHK, even if Gold, Murakami and Sotnikova have all achieved that score last season. However, I highly doubt Miyahara will achieve 196 points if she hasn't improved much from last season. She has shown the potential to deliver clean competitions though, and that should help her PCS. She will need a strong showing at Skate Canada however to justify her likely boost at NHK. I hope she will because she is one of my favourite up and coming skaters (I especially love her spinning in both directions ).

 

[mustafakent]

Hmm my gut instincts tell me that Polina Edmunds or Elena Radionova may have greater chances than Ashley.

If Ashley skates well, I don't think Polina or Elena can beat her.I just hope from now on Ashley will get the presentation scores that she deserves, like Carolina Kostner after the Olympics 2010.Her skating skills, execution, interpretation way better than Elena and Polina -also better than Gracie, Julia and Anna- Only Adelina has a potential to create a good skate, she has got that maturity, but her programs can be sloppy, meaningless, unsophisticated etc. (Does that make a difference ? Sadly, no.) We have to wait and see.

 

[chuckm]

Satoko Miyahara skated last year in the GP and placed 5th in both events, scoring 170 at NHK and 165 at CoR. I somehow doubt she is going to improve on that by 25-30 points this season. 4CC tends to be an overscored event anyway---none of the medalists there who skated at Sochi, JW or Worlds achieved anywhere near their 4CC scores.

In the 2012-2013 GP, Murakami was 4th at CoC with 166 and 7th at CoR with 162. She bounced back with an impressive 2nd at Japanese Nationals, and won 4CC, but then faltered, finishing 12th at Sochi and 10th at Worlds. She decided to return this season, determined to prove that her 4CC performance was not a fluke. The head-to-head with Miyahara at NHK is a challenge for her and she is the one who has the most at stake.

However, Miyahara and Murakami are not the only ones duking it out for gold. Sotnikova, Edmunds and Gold cannot be dismissed as having no chance. Last year, Sotnikova beat Murakami at CoC, and Gold beat Miyahara at NHK. All three beat Murakami at Sochi and Edmunds and Gold beat Murakami at Worlds.

 

[Jammers]

If Ashley skates well, I don't think Polina or Elena can beat her.I just hope from now on Ashley will get the presentation scores that she deserves, like Carolina Kostner after the Olympics 2010.Her skating skills, execution, interpretation way better than Elena and Polina -also better than Gracie, Julia and Anna- Only Adelina has a potential to create a good skate, she has got that maturity, but her programs can be sloppy, meaningless, unsophisticated etc. (Does that make a difference ? Sadly, no.) We have to wait and see.

Gracie has better skating skills and are getting better all the time.

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

Gracie has better skating skills and are getting better all the time.

I don't know if I'd say better but I agree they are improving :yes: Ashley had a PCS advantage over all the younger skaters last year up until GPF and was unable to capitalize because of TES errors. She may have to prove herself all over again to regain an edge in that department. It seems consistency, though not present on the protocols, is a huge factor in maintaining and acquiring a strong PCS score.

 

[Mrs. P]

Actually as far as skating skills go (edge, speed coverage), Gracie is already better than Ashley. Should I'm fine with Gracie behind higher than Ashley in that regard. However, what's not fine that it's used as an anchor for the other categories, such as Performance/execution/interpretation/choreography where Ashley is better.

 

[Sandpiper]

Actually as far as skating skills go (edge, speed coverage), Gracie is already better than Ashley. Should I'm fine with Gracie behind higher than Ashley in that regard. However, what's not fine that it's used as an anchor for the other categories, such as Performance/execution/interpretation/choreography where Ashley is better.

:thumbsup: