The Current Depth of Skating by Nation

[Violet Bliss]

For that matter, both Liza & Anna seem to have survived puberty already. And Leonova is very good, and she's long through puberty. That's before we consider the youngsters who may or may not have any problems ever. And there is a group the size of a synchro team of up and coming youngsters if the current stars should have any difficulties.

Russia's depth is amazing in ladies!

Yes, high altitude depth, the kind that spreads over the podium, not the carpet or the ice.

 

[sabinfire]

Ladies: Russia > Japan > USA > China > Canada

Men: Japan > USA > Russia > Canada

Ice Dance: USA > Russia > Canada > China

Pairs: China > Russia > (I don't follow Pairs closely enough anymore to try to figure it out beyond this...)

I'm sure Canada will jump up a spot in a couple categories next season, particularly in singles.

I feel the trio of C/B, Shibs, & H/B will provide the most overall depth in Ice Dance. I suspect Russia's Ice Dance will become stronger next season. And while W/P have been getting the wins recently, I am curious to see if that will continue to Worlds and beyond (next season). G/P need a serious overhaul in their programs -- what they are doing now does not 'click' with me at all... the vampire makeup and cape costume in the SD, the awkward kiss at the end of the FD. Yuck.

 

[Sandpiper]

Ladies: Russia > Japan > USA > China > Canada

Could you explain this to me? In what way is Japan superior to the US in ladies? Gracie and Ashley both did better on the GP circuit than Rika/Satoko, and have much scoring potential provided they don't make massive errors. Even when Gracie did make massive errors at 4CC, USA #3 stepped up and beat both Rika and Satoko. Moving beyond the top 2, I guess Kanako did a little better on the GP circuit than any US lady, but she's hardly been convincing.

 

[sabinfire]

Could you explain this to me? In what way is Japan superior to the US in ladies? Gracie and Ashley both did better on the GP circuit than Rika/Satoko, and have much scoring potential provided they don't make massive errors. Even when Gracie did make massive errors at 4CC, USA #3 stepped up and beat both Rika and Satoko. Moving beyond the top 2, I guess Kanako did a little better on the GP circuit than any US lady, but she's hardly been convincing.

If this topic were asking for ranking by numbers, I'm sure someone could have pulled out a calculator by now and have done the math for us, based on the results of the season up to this point.

Not to contradict that point, but there were two Japanese ladies on the podium at 4CCs... just saying.

I believe everyone in this thread so far has placed Japan/USA right next to each other or considered them equal, in ladies. I don't think my ranking was any sort of a curveball.

I could explain this in further detail, but I don't see anything to be gained from it. Let's just say I don't feel very strongly about the top American ladies right now, and I would rather watch Rika Hongo over the three of them.

 

[Sandpiper]

^I actually wanted to pose the question to Mrs. P when she rated Japan equal to the US. Except I kinda forgot while making my own list. But putting Japan over the US seems like a real :scratch: to me. So while it's not like you put Japan at #1 for pairs, I still felt like it was time to pose the question (Mrs. P, please jump in as well, if you have an explanation).

The question has nothing to do with which skaters we'd rather watch. I'd rather watch Rika over Gracie, but even after 4CC, it's difficult to consider Rika the more viable contender at Worlds.

That doesn't mean the numbers are some kind of concrete ranking either. There are still debates on what you value. Do you value having a top contender that can take the gold (e.g. Canada in dance/pairs)? Do you value having a three strong contenders, even if none of them are favoured for gold (e.g. China in pairs, USA in ladies)? But I can't see how Japan has either in ladies, over the US.

 

[Mrs. P]

^I actually wanted to pose the question to Mrs. P when she rated Japan equal to the US. Except I kinda forgot while making my own list. But putting Japan over the US seems like a real :scratch: to me. So while it's not like you put Japan at #1 for pairs, I still felt like it was time to pose the question (Mrs. P, please jump in as well, if you have an explanation).

The question has nothing to do with which skaters we'd rather watch. I'd rather watch Rika over Gracie, but even after 4CC, it's difficult to consider Rika the more viable contender at Worlds.

That doesn't mean the numbers are some kind of concrete ranking either. There are still debates on what you value. Do you value having a top contender that can take the gold (e.g. Canada in dance/pairs)? Do you value having a three strong contenders, even if none of them are favoured for gold (e.g. China in pairs, USA in ladies)? But I can't see how Japan has either in ladies, over the US.

I think I was basing it on depth of the overall field in each country.

Here's Japan's top 6: 1.) Miyahara 2. Hongo 3. Higuchi 4. Nagai 5. Murakami 6. Sakamoto

USA top 6: 1. Wagner 2. Gold 3. Chen 4. Edmunds 5. Cesario 6. Bell

Wagner, Gold and Edmunds have beaten Miyahara and Hongo this season, that is true. However, Higuchi and Nagai has gotten over JGPF over Chen (USA No. 2). And Cesario was beaten by Miyahara, Hongo and Nagai at 4CC.

So I think that is why I put them equal for now. Perhaps I will change my opinion after Jr. Worlds/Worlds.

 

[sabinfire]

^I actually wanted to pose the question to Mrs. P when she rated Japan equal to the US.

Someone else agreed with Mrs. P's original ranking (wasn't me ) and thought that when including Juniors, Japan has more talent than the USA (in ladies).

Thanks Mrs. P, you saved me a bit of typing.

 

[Sandpiper]

I think I was basing it on depth of the overall field in each country.

Here's Japan's top 6: 1.) Miyahara 2. Hongo 3. Higuchi 4. Nagai 5. Murakami 6. Sakamoto

USA top 6: 1. Wagner 2. Gold 3. Chen 4. Edmunds 5. Cesario 6. Bell

Wagner, Gold and Edmunds have beaten Miyahara and Hongo this season, that is true. However, Higuchi and Nagai has gotten over JGPF over Chen (USA No. 2). And Cesario was beaten by Miyahara, Hongo and Nagai at 4CC.

So I think that is why I put them equal for now. Perhaps I will change my opinion after Jr. Worlds/Worlds.

So you value #4-6 just as much as #1-3? :think: I guess I understand why you'd put them equal if that's the case. I tend to look heavily at the top 3/people who will actually be at Worlds.

In fact, now that I think about it, depth could be looked at in terms of "strength across four disciplines," like the team event. If we rate each country as a whole, with their current World teams, how would it look? Russia could still come out on top, but it'll be a markedly weaker team than the one they had at the Olympics.

 

[sabinfire]

I tend to look heavily at the top 3/people who will actually be at Worlds.

The OP wasn't very clear in the criteria in making our assessments (no biggie) so I think there's a bit of disconnect in how we are making/interpreting rankings.

Also, I keep hearing "Worlds" and the question if skaters will medal at Worlds. I'm sure Canada will likely (gold) medal at Worlds in Pairs, but I wouldn't list them in the top 2 for Pairs.

I was taking a broader approach and considering the entire field of skaters, which wouldn't be just the top 3, or Worlds podium predictions.

 

[Watermelondrea]

Pairs: Russia=China>??
Men: Japan>Russia=USA>Canada
Ice Dance: Canada>USA>Russia

 

[cheerknithanson]

You know I think in the past weeks I've been thinking of something similar in that which were the 3-4 strongest countries per discipline or ranking which discipline was the strongest to weakest in each country. Though trying to find out the STRONGEST was hard for some countries. Some no biggie. And I rank it by how many strong contenders overall in each country. And weakest...well yeah.

For the USA, I thought their strongest discipline was almost definitely ice dancing and pairs was their weakest discipline (Which is probably not a surprise that I said that).

For Canada, I say that ice dance is also their strongest discipline. And the ladies is their weakest....most likely....

For Russia, as of now, I will have to say ladies is their strongest discipline. For weakest, as of now, I can't really pick between men and ice dance.

For Japan, the men's discipline is definitely their strongest discipline. I can't really tell if ice dance or pairs is the weakest. Cause I don't follow those too much. All I know is that those two disciplines for Japan are not too strong for international competitions.

 

[Weathergal]

When I think which of the nations are strongest in each discipline, I don't think of the upcoming Worlds (I didn't that that was the OP's intention). Also I consider a mix of "height" (which strong medal contenders a country has) and depth (how many strong skaters do they have in the discipline, what do their upcoming Juniors look like). Based on that, here are my thoughts:

Men - Japan > U.S. = Russia > China > Canada
Ladies - Russia > U.S. > Japan > Canada > China
Pairs - Russia = China > Canada > U.S. > Japan
Ice Dance - U.S. > Canada > Russia > China > Japan

For the Men, picking Japan first was pretty easy. The hard part for me was deciding between U.S. and Russia. Russia has more proven, experienced Senior-level competitors in Voronov and Kovtun (proven being a relative term here, of course), but Farris in particular is coming on strong, and Brown has a great deal of potential. And with Aaron and Rippon (more wild cards but still lots of potential), as well as Nathan Chen coming along, I think there's more depth than with Russia with Pitkeev and possibly Gachinski if he could ever get it together. I've always found Menshov intriguing and entertaining, and it looked for a little while there like he might be a late bloomer of sorts, but lately his results haven't been encouraging, and he's several years older than Voronov.

After Russia in Ladies, I think both the U.S. and Japan can make a strong case for #2. But with Japan's loss of Mao (assuming she doesn't return to amateur competition) and Akiko, and Kanako not performing well lately, I don't think Miyahara and Hongo are enough to put them above Wagner and Gold, even with all their question marks. And U.S. has Edmunds, Chen, possibly Nagasu (hope springs eternal), Bell, etc. in the pipeline. Japan has some interesting Juniors, but I think the U.S. might edge them out in Ladies. For China, I think Li is stronger than the Canadian ladies, but with Daleman, Mallet, Chartrand, and possibly Seguin (fi she still competes in singles), Canada has more depth.

For Pairs, like others I think a strong argument can be made for Duhamel/Radford as the top pairs team, but after that with MT/M 1.0 gone, I don't think the newly formed partnerships are quite ready for prime time yet--although I think Iliushechkina/Moscovitch may well get there. And Seguin/Bilodeau also look promising. So with that in mind, I'd give the nod to Russia and China.

For Ice Dance, although Weaver/Poje are in strong contention for the top spot at Worlds this year, I don't think they're that far above Papadakis/Cizeron and Chock/Bates. And even if they were, the U.S. also has the Shib sibs and Hubbell/Donahue, both of which I think are stronger than Gilles/Poirier, and I think Hawayek/Baker are stronger than Paul/Islam and have some wonderful potential. Also Cannuscio/McManus looked good at Nationals.

I feel more hopeful about the U.S. than I have in recent years, and on paper it seems like things could go a little better. But the proof is in the performances, of course. And these thoughts, of course, don't take into consideration skaters from smaller countries like Spain (Fernandez), France (Papadakis/Cizeron, James/Cipres), Kazahkstan (Ten), etc.

I'm a fan of skaters from everywhere and really hope for some strong performances at Worlds all around.

 

[Sandpiper]

You know I think in the past weeks I've been thinking of something similar in that which were the 3-4 strongest countries per discipline or ranking which discipline was the strongest to weakest in each country. Though trying to find out the STRONGEST was hard for some countries. Some no biggie. And I rank it by how many strong contenders overall in each country. And weakest...well yeah.

I'd say...

Russia: Ladies > Pairs > Men > Ice Dance (Because their men have a shot of medalling at Worlds. Ice dance, not so much).

Canada: Ice Dance > Pairs > Ladies > Men (I know, I'm shocked. But right now, it seems like Canadian ladies might actually be stronger. At least we have two ladies who can do okay at Worlds, whereas with men, we have a decent Nam and... no one else).

USA: Ice Dance > Ladies > Men > Pairs (Picked dance mainly due to greater stability, which leads to greater medalling chances)

Japan: Men > Ladies >> Ice Dance > Pairs

China: Pairs > Men > Ladies >> Ice Dance

I guess we use this to calculate overall depth by pitting one country's #1 discipline against another country's #1 discipline, ect. It seems like Russia still comes out on top, though far less convincingly than at the Olympics. Canada might actually fall behind the US these days, if we consider depth, though our chances of gold at individual events have increased.

 

[Li'Kitsu]

So you value #4-6 just as much as #1-3? :think: I guess I understand why you'd put them equal if that's the case. I tend to look heavily at the top 3/people who will actually be at Worlds.

TBH, when I first read the question my initial reaction was Japan > USA for the ladies too. But that wasn't looking at the current top 3 sent to worlds, but more as an overall impression of current strength + potential. Because while Japan doesn't have a clear No. 1 right now, there are so many new names thrown around all the time. Wakaba Higuchi, Marin Honda, Yuna Aoki. It's a similar vibe than with the Russian ladies: 'even if X isn't going to make it, Y will'. On the other hand, the American ladies have kind of a 'not quite getting it done' reputation right now. The last years, the Japanese ladies came out there, and they got **** done. People can harp on Rika Hongo all they want, but I don't think anybody saw her coming up as strong as she did. And compared to the talented american ladies popping up here and there, I have more faith in Rika to keep it up next season than in any of the Americans. But as I said, that's more of an overall gut feeling than simply looking at the current world teams. If that's what you do, then it's USA > Japan no doubt.

It's similar for the American vs. the Russian men IMO. More depth? More potential for the upcoming seasons? USA, definitely. But looking at the guys that are actually going to worlds this year, it's more difficult. I'm not quite sure how those 5 guys would stack up in an 'everybody skates well' scenario. I don't like it, but Kovtun might even score the highest out of those 5 (which makes me ), depending on how his difficulty would compare to the better quality of the American men. I'd give the Russian men the edge for now, because Kovtun and Voronov have more rep, more international medals, and mainly more quads.

 

[Weathergal]

If I took my thoughts by discipline and changed them to by country, I would have about the same results. Getting back to the Ladies though, I did consider more than just current Worlds and have U.S. being stronger than Japan. But I can understand your thinking.

 

[Mrs. P]

It's similar for the American vs. the Russian men IMO. More depth? More potential for the upcoming seasons? USA, definitely. But looking at the guys that are actually going to worlds this year, it's more difficult. I'm not quite sure how those 5 guys would stack up in an 'everybody skates well' scenario. I don't like it, but Kovtun might even score the highest out of those 5 (which makes me ), depending on how his difficulty would compare to the better quality of the American men. I'd give the Russian men the edge for now, because Kovtun and Voronov have more rep, more international medals, and mainly more quads.

FWIW, Jason's nearly clean quadless FS scored nearly the same as Kovtun's nearly clean two-quad FS at Trophee Eric Bompard. Jason's FS is actually a touch higher. Jason's FS is also higher that Vovonov's FS as well by several points. Josh is higher than all those guys.

It's not a perfect comparison with different judging panels, but I do think if clean Josh and Jason can keep their own with Maxim and Sergei. Adam is a question mark at this point.

 

[Li'Kitsu]

FWIW, Jason's nearly clean quadless FS scored nearly the same as Kovtun's nearly clean two-quad FS at Trophee Eric Bompard. Jason's FS is actually a touch higher. Jason's FS is also higher that Vovonov's FS as well by several points. Josh is higher than all those guys.

It's not a perfect comparison with different judging panels, but I do think if clean Josh and Jason can keep their own with Maxim and Sergei. Adam is a question mark at this point.

I'm not that worried about the LPs, it's the SPs. Kovtun has 2 quads and 3As in his LP, but his other jumping passes even include a 2A - far from maxed out. But he has 2 quads in the SP. I think he'd definitely beat Jason overall (and even if it makes me unhappy writing this, with 4 quads SP + LP combined, I think at this point Kovtun should, the fact that Jason is better at everything else notwithstanding). It's harder with Josh... my guess is Josh would win the LP, Kovtun the SP. And while I think Josh should win over Kovtun, I'm not sure how the judges would handle that (Kovtun gets pretty high PCS, and Josh is skating very early in the SP).
For what it's worth though, I'm more confident in Josh (and Jason) to skate really well at worlds than in Kovtun.

 

[xibsuarz]

And while I think Josh should win over Kovtun, I'm not sure how the judges would handle that (Kovtun gets pretty high PCS, and Josh is skating very early in the SP).
For what it's worth though, I'm more confident in Josh (and Jason) to skate really well at worlds than in Kovtun.

I think that Kovtun will have the edge over Farris in PCS, Kovtun has more international recognition than Farris. And, regardless of his execution, he's been more constant this season than Farris (anyone remembers the disaster at NHK?), which will rise his PCS. That, in addition to his technical elements (it wouldn't be weird for a high TES to rise the PCS as well). Although I find Farris' skating much more pleasant to the eye (in general I enjoy the Americans' style more than the Russians), the TES is what is winning competitions now.

Of course, if Kovtun fails his quads it could be a whole different story. That's what I like about the men's field, it's very hard to predict.

 

[sabinfire]

I think that Kovtun will have the edge over Farris in PCS...

I really hope not, but I would hardly be surprised...

 

[Interspectator]

I think that Kovtun will have the edge over Farris in PCS, Kovtun has more international recognition than Farris. And, regardless of his execution, he's been more constant this season than Farris (anyone remembers the disaster at NHK?), which will rise his PCS. That, in addition to his technical elements (it wouldn't be weird for a high TES to rise the PCS as well). Although I find Farris' skating much more pleasant to the eye (in general I enjoy the Americans' style more than the Russians), the TES is what is winning competitions now.

Of course, if Kovtun fails his quads it could be a whole different story. That's what I like about the men's field, it's very hard to predict.

I don't think Judges are blind. If Joshua does a mostly clean program with (emphasis here) +GOE jumps, then his PCS will be higher than Kovtun's.

Kovtun has many weaknesses that the judges are quite aware of. Which his why his scores have mostly stagnated over the last 2 seasons.
I think Joshua has a decent chance of beating Kovtun over all if Kovtun is his usual self. --at about 243 points combined.