My question is: if in the SP Liza execute a nice 3A, then mess up her 3Lz by doubling it, and comeback with a good 3T-3T, will she beat Radionova's score (3Lz-3T, 3L, 2A)?
Let's give this a try...
3A: 8.50 + 1.80 GOE (She received +2.00 at this competition, but let's account for inflation. And considering how the judges treated Mao over the years, even 1.8 is being optimistic...)
2Lz*: 0 (The key point here is, she doesn't get the value of 2Lz, she gets nothing. No GOE either.

)
3T-3Tx: 9.02 + 1.70 GOE (If she does 3A, she'll put the 3-3 in the bonus, increasing its BV. GOE taken from her Europeans SP).
That's a total of 21.02 for the jump elements. At Europeans, with 3T-3T, 3Lz, and 2A, she received 21.54, which... actually isn't that much higher. :shocked: If she'd done the 2A in the bonus like she planned, it would've been 0.33 more, for a total of 21.87. I'm not sure what happens with PCS... do they rise because she landed 3A, or do they fall because she popped 2Lz?
For the jump elements, at Europeans Elena scored 22.08. Unless the judges
really love the 3A and give Liza an unforeseen PCS boost, Elena would (still) win the SP if Liza does 3A, 2Lz, 3T-3T.
However: Liza's overall margin of victory at Europeans, after the LP, was 0.86. So even if she loses 0.52 in jumps, in theory she'd still win if everything else is pristine. She also had a Level 3 combination spin at Europeans, vs. the Level 4 she's capable of doing, so if she gets that she increases the score further.
Keep in mind, with the scores so tight, things could certainly go differently with a different panel/one judge feeling less 3A-happy on the day. Liza will
need to get that 3A ratified with great GOE.