Brown is lucky that the field has been pretty weak this post-Olympic season, with Chan and Machida out and others struggling, otherwise the US getting 3 spots would have been more miraculous than last Worlds.
How is only Jason lucky with that? He was still the best US men in the GP - that has nothing to do with luck (and Machida was still around at the GP and wouldn't have been at 4CC anyway). If you're talking about worlds, the US men didn't keep the 3 spots yet...
Also, I don't think the field right now is so weak. These guys are inconsistent, but the potential is amazing. 4CC was awesome - and Jason finished 6, even with that DG 4T in the SP.
Good for him! I hate quads (big ugly jump that does nothing for most programs) and would rather watch him without one than any of the reliable quadsters out there.
All I can say is: See yesterday's NCAA Tournament games for reason why you can have all the hardest skill in the world, but when you don't come to the plate when it counts...watch out.
Jason, technically, is like Georgia State and University of Alabama-Birmingham. Nobody predicted either of those teams to beat much more superior teams. His competition is like Iowa State and Baylor.
GSU and UAB are going to the second round on Saturday. Iowa State and Baylor are going home.
Jason has the ability to be competitive and to stay at the game. That is valuable in a high-pressure competition like Worlds, quad or not.
He has the ability to, but he hasn't really shown it this season. His programs this year aren't as brilliant as last year unfortunately, and his 3A is still inconsistent. If the quad is the barometer for making the podium at Worlds, a consistent 3A is what you need to even make the top 10.
Ironically, at 4CC where he failed the quad, he ended up getting a personal best. But in the FS, he was 6th (a 5th if the 3Z wasn't <). But still, that's only the 7th best FS score of the guys competing at Worlds, and he has the 9th best SP score of the guys competing at Worlds (that's why I said earlier he's lucky Uno/Murakami/Chan/Machida aren't competing).
Jason can probably clear 250 if he's perfect... maybe 255 if the judges are generous. But without a quad attempt, he likely won't clear 255 (and the top 5 guys going into Worlds have all gotten 259.47 or better). That being said, you never know - Kovtun got 4th with 247 last year... and without Machida that would have been enough for a distant bronze.
. Jason seems to have the uncanny ability to peak at the right time be it over a course of a season or at the right point in a four-year Olympic season. So that's another reason not to count him out.
The field is weaker. Japan doesn't have a retired Takahashi or Machida (Mura is a question mark, and Uno/Murakami who score better than Kozuka isn't going). Canada doesn't have Chan (and Reynolds' season was awful and is over) - Jeremy Ten can barely land a 3A and even when Nam is practically perfect with a quad he is still placed behind a flawed, quadless Brown (see Skate America). The Russian men aren't looking particularly strong either (although Kovtun should beat Brown at Worlds).
So, a top 5-6 finish is what Farris/Brown can hope for (with Hanyu, Fernandez, Ten most likely ahead of them -- and probably one of Mura/Brezina/Han/Kovtun/Voronov). But if Chan and Machida were also competing that'd be a top 7-8 finish and the 3 spots would be lost. Still, top 5/6 would be a great achievement in their first Worlds.
I could picture is Farris skating close to lights out and ending up 4th, in which case a 9th or better by a quadless Brown is certainly possible. So it's not out of the realm of possibility. Without a quad and a continually inconsistent 3A Brown will not end up better than 6th, I'm predicting (unless the other guys bomb), and it would be top 8 at best if Chan/Machida were there and marginally on.
I agree with Jason's strategy for World Championships. Let's see how much he will surprise us all.
It's a wise strategy. Best to leave this element for next season, or whenever it is "ready". His programs are already solid... I don't see much benefit in changing things at this stage of the season.
Curious though: Around US Nationals, most people seemed tired of hearing about the lack of quads, and that Jason should wait until this element is ready for competition (which looked like next season, at the time.) Later, most folks supported & admired Jason adding the 4T at 4CC. Now it seems opinion has shifted and that it's now a good decision to leave it out at Worlds. Is this just in response to the results at 4CC? Or if Jason had decided to plan a quad for Worlds, would the same support/admiration be offered for that decision as with 4CC, or do you think it would be a bad idea?
Maybe most Jason fans would support him regardless of his planned elements, which makes sense.
Just curious if there was any general thoughts on the quad, whether Jason should or shouldn't be attempting it now or in the near future (which would be the beginning of next season at this point), and how Jason could crack the top 5 at Worlds with relatively "easy" technical elements in his programs, compared to the other top men.
According to the article, two of the three American men must place 6th and 7th or higher to keep these three spots.
I do not see it happening. I can see Farris around 4th-5th with a bit of luck but the highest I can see Brown is 9th. Frankly, I would not be surprised if he missed the top 10 altogether.