Grand Prix Speculation 2015-2016

[NaVi]

Total spots guranteed 39/60
County breakdown
RUS: 8 (max spots for each country is 18)

You forgot Sotnikova... Russia has 9 lady skaters guaranteed 1 spot if they wish. There is little chance all of them would get two spots, but from last years rules replacements must come out of the top 24 season's best first though a host can opt not to replace a skater if they have at least 10 skaters(IIRC).

 

[Mrs. P]

You forgot Sotnikova... Russia has 9 lady skaters guaranteed 1 spot if they wish. There is little chance all of them would get two spots, but from last years rules replacements must come out of the top 24 season's best first though a host can opt not to replace a skater if they have at least 10 skaters(IIRC).

Oh yeah, I'll edit my document. She's still No. 9.

 

[LisaM]

If anyone could do such a list for ID like mrs. P did for singles, that would be great! Please?

 

[Mrs. P]

Pairs (48 spots up for grabs!)

Top 10 (2 spots; 20 total)
1. Duhamel/Radford, CAN
2. Sui/Han, CHN
3. Pang/ Tong, CHN (are they continuing?)
4. Peng/Zhang, CHN
5. Kavaguti/Smirnov, RUS
6. Tarasova/Morozov, RUS
----
7. Scimeca/Knierim, USA (they are seeded 6th if P/T doesn't comeback)
8. Seguin/Bilodeau, CAN
9. James/Cipres, FRA
10. Astakhova/Rogonov, RUS
---
11. Marchei/Hotarek (goes into top 10 if P/T does not return)

Top 24 SB (14 spots)
3. Stolbova/Klimov, RUS
9. Yu/Jin, CHN
11. Denney, Frazier, USA
12. Wang/Wang, CHN
15. Marchei/Hotarek, ITA
16. Iliushechkina/Moscovitch, CAN
17. Vigalova/Zakroev, RUS
18. Kayne/O'Shea, USA
19. Bazarova/Deputat, RUS
20. Aaron/Settlage, USA
21. Fedorova/Miroshkin, RUS
22. Della Monica/ Guarise, ITA
23. Moore-Towers/Marianro, CAN
24. Calalang/Sidhu, USA

Top 24 WR (4 spots)
2. Volosozhar/Trankov, RUS (if they return)
17. Ziegler/Kiefer, AUT
21. Cernuschi/Ambrosini, ITA
23. Denney/Coughlin, USA (if they return)

Total spots claimed (36 or 38/48 spots)

Given the limited number of spots, the above list can probably easily fulfill all the spots, though Japan will have some host picks.

Seeded pair event pick predictions (going to assume P/T will not return)

Skate America - Peng/Zhang (1-3), Scimeca/Knierim (3-6)
Skate Canada - Duhamel/Radford (1-3), Kavaguti/Smirnov (3-6)
Cup of China - Sui/Han (1-3), Tarasova/Morozov (4-6)
Rostelecom Cup - Duhamel/Radford (1-3), Kavaguti/Smirnov (3-6)
Trophee Eric Bompard - Peng/Zhang (1-3), Tarasova/Morozov (4-6)
NHK Trophy - Sui/Han (1-3), Scimeca/Knierim (3-6)

 

[Mrs. P]

Ice Dance - 48 spots

Top 10 at Worlds (20 spots)
1. Papadakis/Cizeron, FRA
2. Chock/Bates, USA
3. Weaver/Poje, CAN
4. Cappellini/Lanotte, ITA
5. Shibutani/Shibutani, USA
6. Gilles/Poirier, CAN
7. Ilinykh/Zhiganshin, RUS
8. Monko/Khalivin, RUS
9. Stepanova/Bukin, RUS
10. Hubbell/Donohue, USA

Top 24 SB (12 spots)
7. Guignard/Fabbri, ITA
12. Coomes/Buckland, GBR
13. Fournier Beaudry/Sorenson, DEN
14. Yanovskaya/Mozgov, RUS
15. Hurtado/Diaz, ESP
16. Paul/Islam, CAN
18. Testa/Csolley, SVK
19. Hawayek/Baker, USA
20. Nazarova/Nikitin. UKR
21. Sinitsina/Katsalapov, RUS
23. Popova/Vlasenko, RUS (if they move up; they still have a year of junior eligibility left)
24. Bent/Mackeen, CAN

Top 24 WR (2 spots)
8. Bobrova/Soloviev, RUS (if they return)
24. Reed/Reed, JPN

Estimated spots guaranteed so far: 34/48

Spots up for grabs 14.

Other picks for GP (including host picks)
Agafonova/Ucar, TUR
Paradis/Ouellette (host pick), CAN
Moschenko/Lukacs, HUN
Cannuscio/McManus, USA (host pick)
Edwards/Pang, CAN
Kavaliova/Bieliaiev, BLR
Wang/Liu, CHN (host pick)
Kim/Minov, KOR
Shtork/Rand, EST

 

[Lindacrow]

Usually I don't take much stock into comeback announcements, but it really sounds like he wants to return and settle some unfinished business. It's not a "Maybe we will comeback" type feeling I get from Davis and White, for example.

Speaking of comebacks, any clue if Mao is returning?!?!

 

[CaroLiza_fan]

There's a thing I have often wondered, and this seems an appropriate place to ask.

How is it decided which event each skater goes to?

Do the skaters specify which 2 GP's they want to go to, and keep their fingers crossed? Alternatively, maybe specify their preferred 2 with a third GP (and maybe a fourth) as an alternate? Or are they asked to put an order of preference on all of them?

And, how is the final decision made by the powers that be?

Do they give skaters that are higher in the World Standings their preferred choices first? Do they give preference to skaters that live nearer to the venue? Are the opinions of the event organisers taken into consideration (can they specify who they want to appear)?

These are things that I would be very interested know.

Apologies if this has already been dealt with somewhere in the depths of the Stupid Questions Thread...

CaroLiza_fan

 

[karne]

I don't think this is a stupid question at all, CaroLiza_fan. It's quite a tricky process and I don't understand it properly, but as I understand it, the "seeded" skaters get assigned first. I believe skaters can indicate preferences, but I'm not certain about where the process goes from there.

I wonder how many skaters put down NHK? This is a fairly intelligent collective, and they must know that at the moment, Japan is where the big money is, especially for shows.

 

[LRK]

Wonderful work, Mrs P!

Just a little note & a query...

Note: You've got Kiira as Swedish...

Query: Don't the Russian men have 5 spots as per your list? I mean, if

Kovtun - 2
Voronov -1
Petrov - 1
Pitkeev - 1

? Or aren't you counting Pitkeev, because the WR list is pre-scrubbing? Just curious.

 

[cheerknithanson]

But, Skate Canada has had Virtue and Moir and Weaver and Poje both at Skate Canada, so I don't see why that would change. I also think that Misha Ge will try to get China, since China loves him so much, and Yuzuru will go to the US, to make the traveling from Toronto easier. My guess would be:

Skate America: Yuzuru Hanyu (1-3), Jason Brown (4-6)
Skate Canada: Javier Fernandez (1-3), Nam Nguyen (4-6)
Cup of China: Denis Ten (1-3), Misha Ge (4-6)
Trophee Eric Bompard: Denis Ten (1-3), Jason Brown (4-6)
Rostelecom Cup: Javier Fernandez (1-3), Misha Ge (4-6)
NHK Trophy: Yuzuru Hanyu (1-3), Nam Nguyen (4-6)

I also think that maybe Jason will go to TEB, so that he won't need to go against Yuzuru at both competitions. I think Nam will always be at a competition where either Javier or Yuzuru are, so that Brian Orser can cut down on how much he will need to travel. And then Javier usually goes to the Rostelecom Cup...

I realized I'm over thinking this, because I looked back at which competitions Yuzu goes to, and I realized that I don't really see a clear pattern there either. Maybe he's trying to win every Grand Prix? Looking at his schedule, he goes to a different Grand Prix every year, and he's only been going to NHK every other year. I think he will have to go to NHK this year though, because since so many Japanese men have retired, he will be the main draw. He has medaled at every grand prix so far, but he hasn't won Skate America, Canada, Cup of China, or Trophee Eric Bompard.

If Yuzuru does Skate America, I'm going to want to go SO badly and make another dream of mine come true, which is to see him skate....and if there's a chance, POSSIBLY meet him. Only if it's feasible thought. I think I could go considering that in the fall, I'm going to have no Friday classes!

 

[TMC]

The men (based on last year's announcement) = 60 spots total

Top 12 at Worlds (2 spots guaranteed = 24 spots)
1. Javier Fernandez, ESP
2. Yuzuru Hanyu, JPN
3. Denis Ten, KAZ
4. Jason Brown, USA
5. Nam Nguyen, CAN
6. Misha Ge, UZE
---- skaters above this line are seeded

Just

 

[Sophie-Anna]

Do you think Ashley Wagner will be invited to Skate America? I don't really know. She is the current US champion, but Gracie did better at the Worlds. Polina is current champion of 4Continents so maybe she would be invited too? I don't really know much about the invitations.

 

[invisiblespiral]

Okay, I'm going to take a stab at ladies. Thanks Mrs. P for the numbers!

1-3 pool: Liza, Satoko, and Lena.

SA: Satoko
SC: Lena
COC: Liza
RC: Liza
TEB: Lena
NHK: Satoko

4-6 pool: Gold, Wagner, Hongo

SA: Gold
SC: Hongo
COC: Wagner
RC: Hongo
TEB: Wagner
NHK: Gold

7-9 pool: Kanako, Polina, Zijun

SA: Kanako
SC: Polina
COC: Zijun
RC: Polina
TEB: Zijun
NHK: Kanako

10-12 pool: Mae, Alaine, and SY

SA: SY
SC: Alaine
COC: Mae
RC: SY
TEB: Mae
NHK: Alaine

SB pool: Zhenia, Sima, Pogo, Leonova, Julia, Sotskova, Cesario, Hicks, Elizabet, Yuka, Hannah. (most of these are wild guesses and speculation.)

SA: Leonova, Sotskova, Elizabet,
SC: Sima, Cesario, Hicks, Elizabet,
COC: Pogo, Julia, Yuka,
RC: Zhenia, Sotskova, Hannah,
TEB: Pogo, Julia, Cesario, Hannah,
NHK: Zhenia, Sima, Hicks, Yuka,

WR pool: Viktoria, Joshi, Imai, and I can't see any of the others going back. This is also mad speculation.

SA: Joshi,
COC: Viktoria,
TEB: Imai

Host picks:

SA: Chen and Bell.
SC: Daleman and Osmond if she's coming back, if she isn't, leave that spot up for grabs.
COC: No clue.
RC: Already chosen.
TEB: Lecavalier and Ventard.
NHK: Already chosen.

Total number of spots left:

SA: 2
SC: 2
COC: 4
RC: 4
TEB: 1
NHK: 4

Filling in the slots:

SA: Kiira, Riona.
SC: Miyabi, Kuchvalska.
COC: Chen, Mirai, Artemieva, Choi.
RC: Riona, Choi, Osmond, Rajikova.
TEB: Kiira.
NHK: Mirai, Kuchvalska, Elene, Schott.

So, I'm not logical and having fun with my idealism, such as certain people getting slots.... sorry if you expected something better.

 

[Skater Boy]

So you guys do this? You try to think who's going to skate where? Sorry, like my profile says, I've only been on this forum for less than a year....

Awesome, you like are a pro poster - over 1200 in less than a year!!! Sweet

 

[Skater Boy]

Someone questioned if Osmond is coming back from Canada. Is there an issue? I saw her skating the other day and she seemed fine.

 

[Mrs. P]

Someone questioned if Osmond is coming back from Canada. Is there an issue? I saw her skating the other day and she seemed fine.

I forgot about her; out of sight out of mind. She isn't guaranteed any spots cause she's not in SB/wr 24 and she hasn't placed high enough at worlds to get comeback spots. So a host pick is the most likely. Though I can see her getting 2 anyway.

 

[cheerknithanson]

I forgot about her; out of sight out of mind. She isn't guaranteed any spots cause she's not in SB/wr 24 and she hasn't placed high enough at worlds to get comeback spots. So a host pick is the most likely. Though I can see her getting 2 anyway.

Wait a minute. I heard somewhere that you have to have placed in the top 6 at worlds in the past 10 years for it to work. Since Kevin Reynolds got 5th 2 years ago, does that mean he has a slight chance of getting spots IF he competes next season (Which I dearly hope so cause if he does and goes to worlds, it'll be possibly my only chance to see him skate live and have one my dreams come true)?

 

[StitchMonkey]

Wait a minute. I heard somewhere that you have to have placed in the top 6 at worlds in the past 10 years for it to work. Since Kevin Reynolds got 5th 2 years ago, does that mean he has a slight chance of getting spots IF he competes next season (Which I dearly hope so cause if he does and goes to worlds, it'll be possibly my only chance to see him skate live and have one my dreams come true)?

Last year skaters were able to do Challenger series skates early in the season and then use that score as a basis for invites to grand prixs. Both Canadians might be able to make use of that.

 

[Mrs. P]

Wait a minute. I heard somewhere that you have to have placed in the top 6 at worlds in the past 10 years for it to work. Since Kevin Reynolds got 5th 2 years ago, does that mean he has a slight chance of getting spots IF he competes next season (Which I dearly hope so cause if he does and goes to worlds, it'll be possibly my only chance to see him skate live and have one my dreams come true)?

Per the announcement, he is only considered a comeback skater if he didn't compete at all internationally last season. I believe he did the Autumn Classic.

 

[Rissa]

My guess would be:

Skate America: Yuzuru Hanyu (1-3), Jason Brown (4-6)
Skate Canada: Javier Fernandez (1-3), Nam Nguyen (4-6)
Cup of China: Denis Ten (1-3), Misha Ge (4-6)
Trophee Eric Bompard: Denis Ten (1-3), Jason Brown (4-6)
Rostelecom Cup: Javier Fernandez (1-3), Misha Ge (4-6)
NHK Trophy: Yuzuru Hanyu (1-3), Nam Nguyen (4-6)

I also think that maybe Jason will go to TEB, so that he won't need to go against Yuzuru at both competitions. I think Nam will always be at a competition where either Javier or Yuzuru are, so that Brian Orser can cut down on how much he will need to travel. And then Javier usually goes to the Rostelecom Cup...

Now that he's a World Champion, it would make more sense for Javier to attend Trophee Eric Bompard, from the commercial point of view. Spanish fans could come in droves. Not much an option with Russia.