2015-16 State of U.S. Men's Figure Skating

[Mrs. P]

In hindsight, it probably will not matter one iota whether Nathan starts his senior international career now or in a year from now. What matters that Nathan stays injury free and is able to build on the great foundation he clearly has started this summer.

**
For the sake of discussion and with the JGP starting next week, it's probably worth putting my two cents on where I think --- key phrase this is my strict opinion-- how I would group the men, compared to the end of last season.

I will do the same thing as I did at the beginning of this thread: My power five, the dark horses and top 10 contenders.

The Power Five

Nathan Chen - We'll consider the amount of discussion he has generated, this boy currently deserves the No. 1 spot for now. He has pretty much beaten a majority of the men in summer competition and has executed several quads this summer.

Max Aaron - He was a monster at the Aerial challenge hitting quads left and right. The jumps weren't quite there for him at U.S. Collegiates. He's attempting to refine himself artistically with two Phillip Mills programs, so that's worth watching.

Richard Dornbush - He's coming off a win at the U.S. Collegiate Championships, beating Max Aaron. He's keeping the Coldplay FS everyone loves. His jumps aren't there 100 percent, but I have a feeling we'll see improvement.

Adam Rippon - We haven't seen him in competition, but it appears he has some really good programs this season and also he does seem to be progressing on the quads (his The Ice video shows him doing a quad lutz that looked decent though it was hard to tell).

Jason Brown - He's barely on the top 5 due to a series of poor summer comps (for him, anyway). However, it's hard to put him lower because it appears he's adjusting to what are some challenging programs and obviously integrating the quad. He's never been an early season peaker, so it seemed like No. 5 was a good compromise.



Dark horses

Joshua Farris - By putting Nathan on the list, I had to kick someone off. Sorry Josh. The reasons are obvious -- no sign of him competition wise and there's word he is dealing with injury -- though it's unclear how severe it is.

Grant Hochstein - He surprised everyone with a 160+ FS at Glacier Falls that included two quads and two 3As. He has also scored 80+ previously as well. But it's hard to say whether this will be a consistent thing, so hence my decision to keep him on this list.

Timothy Dolensky - Tim appears to be coming along on the quads, and he had a 80+ program at Glacier Falls. His programs are also nicely choreographed and he performs them well.

Vincent Zhou - Like Nathan, Vincent is heading to the JGP but will be at Nationals as a senior. He seem to be having a nice slow comeback and is even doing some quads -- and he has the video to prove it!

Ross Miner - He had an OK start at Lake Placid, but we don't have video, so it's hard to say where he is at this point. I'll keep him on the dark horse list for now.

Gunning for Top 10

Sean Rabbit - Our boy's on the ISP this year! He's had a solid summer comp season. The 3A is still not quite consistent but it's getting there.

Alexander Johnson - He hasn't had the best summer comp season, but he does have some awesome Tom Dickson-choreographed programs.

Jordan Moeller - He hasn't scored well on summer comps, but it's clear that he's in the same "No need to peak in summer" program that Jason Brown is on, so I still think he'll be in better shape in the months to come.

????

Jeremy Abbott - Not on the ISP, but hasn't confirmed anything officially.


Okay, discuss.

 

[apgold]

Great assessment, Mrs. P, as usual.

Joshua Farris - By putting Nathan on the list, I had to kick someone off. Sorry Josh. The reasons are obvious -- no sign of him competition wise and there's word he is dealing with injury -- though it's unclear how severe it is.

I'm a bit concerned about Josh and the radio silence from him since he cancelled the Sun Valley show a few weeks ago. I know he's a procrastinator, but I hoped we'd hear something about his new FS. He was supposed to go to Toronto to work with Jeff Buttle during the summer, but we've heard nothing and summer is coming to an end soon. If he's injured, I hope he's resting and getting healthy. He's got some good momentum going into the new season, and it would suck for him (and us) to miss it. Maybe we'll hear something during Champs camp?

Of the other guys you listed, most have competed in some form already or in Jeremy and Adam's case, touring in shows.

 

[ice coverage]

In hindsight, it probably will not matter one iota whether Nathan starts his senior international career now or in a year from now. What matters that Nathan stays injury free and is able to build on the great foundation he clearly has started this summer.

**
For the sake of discussion and with the JGP starting next week, it's probably worth putting my two cents on where I think --- key phrase this is my strict opinion-- how I would group the men, compared to the end of last season. ...

Thank you, Mrs. P .

Great assessment, Mrs. P, as usual.



I'm a bit concerned about Josh and the radio silence from him since he cancelled the Sun Valley show a few weeks ago. I know he's a procrastinator, but I hoped we'd hear something about his new FS. He was supposed to go to Toronto to work with Jeff Buttle during the summer, but we've heard nothing and summer is coming to an end soon. If he's injured, I hope he's resting and getting healthy. He's got some good momentum going into the new season, and it would suck for him (and us) to miss it. Maybe we'll hear something during Champs camp?

...

AFAIK, radio silence has been Josh's modus operandi even when he has competed in summer comps in past years?
I'm thinking of 2013 and 2014, when he did compete in the Vail Invitational -- without giving any sign on social media that he did.
Just sayin' that staying under the radar seems to be Josh's preference. IMO, can't rule out the possibility that he quietly has competed somewhere this summer.

(Max also has been known to stay under the radar in summers past. The relative visibility of Collegiates was a new thing for Max this year.)

 

[TMC]

Does anybody know if the deadline for Challenger entries is this Saturday for all of them or just FT?

I'm really looking forward to finding out who's going where! Now that Sean is in the ISP, I'm really hoping he comes to Finlandia

 

[Ice Dance]

OK, so I have two major concerns with regard to the staying junior:

1. If you don't compete on the same playing field as your competition during the season, you don't get to compete on the same field at Nationals. Yes, Polina made the Olympic team based on her junior results; but she had to place second to make that team. Third would not have done it. At least, I don't believe it would have. Now, Ashley certainly had the credentials to make that team; but Polina never had a crack at her or any of the top senior ladies during the regular season. Nathan has just defeated Jason twice, but this competition will feel like a long time ago by January. If Nathan finishes third at Nationals with a Grand Prix finalist and/or Olympian behind him, what kind of credentials does Nathan have that can defy that? I know, this is a wonky scenario. But we've already discussed how many American men's national champions don't make the top three the following year. And there's no guarantee Nathan will have a great junior season. He may feel more pressure there than he would in a senior field (Michelle's reason for moving up early). I just wish we could know that when Nathan gets to Nationals the conversation doesn't wind up being "He doesn't have the same credentials. He hasn't beaten the same guys internationally. Someone else medaled and/or won at a senior Grand Prix event and/or Final."

2. Is going to 4CC's and/or Worlds really the best place to debut your senior international career? Shoma was in tears after his free skate at 4CC's last year, and he did about as well as any human being could possibly have expected. Thank goodness his coach was smart enough not to send him to Worlds or he might have begun his career with the blame for a lost spot on the Japanese team. If we think Nathan is good enough to make the team, then why wouldn't it be a good idea for him to gain some experience competing against the senior guys while they are all still feeling their way through their programs?

I think other people have already done a good job outlining the benefits of staying junior. The biggest one to me is probably that this is the plan they made. It's working. He's in shape, prepared, and confident. I think if this is the decision he and his team have made, then it is the right choice. If they're all committed to this decision, then he may have a spectacular season on the junior circuit and head into Nationals with similar confidence. As I said after the competition at the Broadmoor, I think he's earned the right to make that decision. I know, I know. Not officially. But yeah.

 

[Krunchii]

Does anybody know if the deadline for Challenger entries is this Saturday for all of them or just FT?

I'm really looking forward to finding out who's going where! Now that Sean is in the ISP, I'm really hoping he comes to Finlandia

Probably just FT? Last year the Russian Fed released Liubov Iliushechkina just in time for her and Dylan Moscovitch to enter the Warsaw Cup and that was in October while the competition was end of November

 

[karne]

I'm a bit concerned about Josh and the radio silence from him since he cancelled the Sun Valley show a few weeks ago. I know he's a procrastinator, but I hoped we'd hear something about his new FS. He was supposed to go to Toronto to work with Jeff Buttle during the summer, but we've heard nothing and summer is coming to an end soon. If he's injured, I hope he's resting and getting healthy. He's got some good momentum going into the new season, and it would suck for him (and us) to miss it. Maybe we'll hear something during Champs camp?

Of the other guys you listed, most have competed in some form already or in Jeremy and Adam's case, touring in shows.

As someone else has pointed out, radio silence is very much Josh's modus operandi and has been for some years, even when he is not injured. So it is no great surprise that he should be so quiet now.

I respect all of Mrs P's opinions, but in this case I must object to the bumping of Joshua and the "only just" status of Jason in your top five, particularly in favour of Rippon who has not been seen either, Dornnbush who has had one good summer comp, and a kid who is really not soup yet but everyone seems so desperate to crown. Jason is the reigning National Champion and has three GP medals from two seasons, and Joshua is a reigning National medallist and 4CCs silver medallist. They're not to be lightly thrown aside in favour of some flavour-of-the-month!

 

[Mrs. P]

I respect all of Mrs P's opinions, but in this case I must object to the bumping of Joshua and the "only just" status of Jason in your top five, particularly in favour of Rippon who has not been seen either, Dornnbush who has had one good summer comp, and a kid who is really not soup yet but everyone seems so desperate to crown. Jason is the reigning National Champion and has three GP medals from two seasons, and Joshua is a reigning National medallist and 4CCs silver medallist. They're not to be lightly thrown aside in favour of some flavour-of-the-month!

I should be clear my polling is a snapshot, not a career-long reflection. Think of it like Top 25 College Basketball rankings in the U.S., which constantly change as the season goes on. In addition, this is a rough shot since we have some skaters who don't do summer comps or do shows instead ofsummer comps. However, you do what you can with the data available.

Nathan Chen currently has the highest summer comp scores of all the American men (not to mention he's won both of the summer comps he's entered). While that's not enough to crown him National Champion, but I'm willing to say that RIGHT NOW, he's looking the best of all the American men. Coupled with the fact that he has a history of doing well internationally (yes, only as a junior, but still), I don't think my assertion is unreasonable.

If I was really tossing Jason and Josh aside, I would have ranked them lower. Jason would have easily become a dark horse and Josh would had been a mere "top 10" contender. But because, yes, they have history of doing extremely well. However the fact that Jason has fared poorly in his summer comps (his highest SP score is behind just about all the U.S. men, for example) and that Josh has been injured to the point of having to pull out of a ice show, puts, again, their CURRENT standing into question.

But of course like the Top 25 basketball ranking, opinions are subjects and yes, I expect many people will take issue with *my rankings*.

When JGP/GP/Senior B's start, I'll start my usual more "objective" scoring matrix.

 

[Tavi...]

One of the things being overlooked here is that not everyone is going into these competitions to win them. I think Nathan Chen has something to prove after having been injured, and I think he was in it to win it. He also kept the same SP, which means he had less work to do. I think Jason's just trying to get his quad down & learn new and very difficult programs. Anyone who doubles jumps by choice - as Jason did at Broadmoor - is not focused on winning. Jason looked much worse at Glacier Falls than at Broadmoor because he was making himself work a lot harder. And he fell a lot and seemed slow because he hasn't mastered his programs & the quad yet.

Put it this way: Nathan looked very good in both competitions. His 4T is great and his skating is very smooth. He looks polished. But if you put Glacier Falls Nathan up against 4CC Josh or WTT Jason without a quad - that is, those two in peak form - instead of Glacier Falls Jason falling on his butt and two-footing his quad as part of a work in process - do you really think Nathan would win?

Because I don't.

 

[el henry]

So to add to the endless Nathan vs. the world discussion, having rewatched the program a few times with an ear to the music ...

Those jumps; that precision: admirable!

But, I did not get any sense that Nathan felt he was interpreting this magnificent piece of music. I know I am not the first person to say this, but that could be *anything* playing in the background, or nothing playing in the background, and I felt it more on repeated viewings. He needs seasoning (and he's a kid, he can still get it) to be the complete package.

(Which leads me to a completely off topic question, can anyone recommend a passionate skate out there to the last movement of the Organ Symphony? I'm really in the mood to see one now. I'll even watch the ladies)

 

[Interspectator]

So to add to the endless Nathan vs. the world discussion, having rewatched the program a few times with an ear to the music ...

Those jumps; that precision: admirable!

But, I did not get any sense that Nathan felt he was interpreting this magnificent piece of music. I know I am not the first person to say this, but that could be *anything* playing in the background, or nothing playing in the background, and I felt it more on repeated viewings. He needs seasoning (and he's a kid, he can still get it) to be the complete package.

(Which leads me to a completely off topic question, can anyone recommend a passionate skate out there to the last movement of the Organ Symphony? I'm really in the mood to see one now. I'll even watch the ladies)

I agree with your assessment of Nathan's programs.
However, I feel that most of the polishing or seasoning for skaters, male and female, happens after they make the switch to the senior ranks. Very few skaters ( most of them are American) come to the senior ranks as polished skaters. Spending too much time in the juniors where all the other skaters are even more rough and unfinished isn't really the best way to improve your artistic side no?

It's when you get to the seniors and see your hardest competition close up that you get a first hand understanding of what you need to improve.

When you are very young the fear of failure is less engrained (one would assume) so tackling skaters much older than you is something you can relish.

However, if you've stayed in the junior ranks until most of your direct competition is 2-3 years younger than you, and then you make your change to the Seniors where a lot of the skaters are just your age and have been there longer, fear and a lack of momentum can set in.

P.S. I am in no way crowning Nathan the next great skater or anything. I'm just questioning the reasoning behind Team USA's relatively late switch to Seniors for all its skaters. -I'm not sure about the Ladies though. What's it like for them? --I remember Samantha looking extremely womanly and mature in a sea of tiny little girls at Junior Worlds, but that's all.

These are just my opinions, of course and there is much more to consider than just the age of a skater. But if someone like Nathan was for instance in Russia or Japan or Canada and had a quad and a 3A you can bet your boots he'd be in the Seniors, no questions asked.

 

[Mrs. P]

One of the things being overlooked here is that not everyone is going into these competitions to win them. I think Nathan Chen has something to prove after having been injured, and I think he was in it to win it. He also kept the same SP, which means he had less work to do. I think Jason's just trying to get his quad down & learn new and very difficult programs. Anyone who doubles jumps by choice - as Jason did at Broadmoor - is not focused on winning. Jason looked much worse at Glacier Falls than at Broadmoor because he was making himself work a lot harder. And he fell a lot and seemed slow because he hasn't mastered his programs & the quad yet.

Put it this way: Nathan looked very good in both competitions. His 4T is great and his skating is very smooth. He looks polished. But if you put Glacier Falls Nathan up against 4CC Josh or WTT Jason without a quad - that is, those two in peak form - instead of Glacier Falls Jason falling on his butt and two-footing his quad as part of a work in process - do you really think Nathan would win?

Because I don't.

It's just *my* preseason poll, just like people do in college football or basketball. Again, you use what you have on hand, data wise. I, personally, don't really want to factor too much into WTT Jason into my preseason ranking because we don't have WTT Jason at the moment (or 4CC Josh).

Now a preseason poll doesn't predict ANYTHING, but again just a snapshot. An early look at where the season *could* go. It's going to change as the season go.

Here's how college football does it: http://www.mlive.com/spartans/index.ssf/2015/08/analysis_mike_griffiths_super.html

And hey! Let's do an exercise: WHy don't you rank the top 10 U.S. men based on your own data and assertions then we can put it together and see how everyone ranks?

Okay I will start:

1.) Nathan Chan
2.) Max Aaron
3.) Richard Dornbush
4.) Jason Brown
5.) Adam Rippon
6.) Grant Hochstein
7.) Tim Dolensky
8.) Ross Miner
9.) Sean Rabbitt
10.) Alexander Johnson

I agree with your assessment of Nathan's programs.
However, I feel that most of the polishing or seasoning for skaters, male and female, happens after they make the switch to the senior ranks. Very few skaters ( most of them are American) come to the senior ranks as polished skaters. Spending too much time in the juniors where all the other skaters are even more rough and unfinished isn't really the best way to improve your artistic side no?

It's when you get to the seniors and see your hardest competition close up that you get a first hand understanding of what you need to improve.

When you are very young the fear of failure is less engrained (one would assume) so tackling skaters much older than you is something you can relish.

However, if you've stayed in the junior ranks until most of your direct competition is 2-3 years younger than you, and then you make your change to the Seniors where a lot of the skaters are just your age and have been there longer, fear and a lack of momentum can set in.

P.S. I am in no way crowning Nathan the next great skater or anything. I'm just questioning the reasoning behind Team USA's relatively late switch to Seniors for all its skaters. -I'm not sure about the Ladies though. What's it like for them? --I remember Samantha looking extremely womanly and mature in a sea of tiny little girls at Junior Worlds, but that's all.

These are just my opinions, of course and there is much more to consider than just the age of a skater. But if someone like Nathan was for instance in Russia or Japan or Canada and had a quad and a 3A you can bet your boots he'd be in the Seniors, no questions asked.

Part of it is a depth-issue. I mean, even in Japan, with so many top senior skaters, you had Japanese skaters stuck in juniors for several years.

The other part is team strategy. They want good skaters to stay in juniors to ensure maximum Junior Worlds/JGP spots. They will do this if they sense there is enough depth, again, in the senior ranks to justify such a move. That's why you had Ashley Wagner going back to Jr. Worlds in 2009 even though she was well into her second season as a senior.

Samantha Cesario scenario: was injured for two straight seasons and hadn't competed at Nationals those years. But you had other cases where you had ladies moving up relatively soon. Karen Chen was too young last year to be at Worlds and bam! She's got a GP this year. Mirai and Rachel moved up to seniors in the 2008-2009 season after winning medals at Jr. Worlds the previous season.

But this is a moot point with Nathan, cause wasn't it Nathan and his team who made the decision to stay junior? Also, per my point ultimately I don't think it makes a difference anyway. FWIW, Evan Lysacek moved up to seniors at age 19...and won the bronze medal at Worlds during his debut season.

 

[Interspectator]

I can always depend on you Mrs. P, for a very detailed answer. Thanks!

 

[Mathman]

I don't see what the big argument is about, frankly. Nathan is not angling to replace the top U.S. seniors this year, but to join them. He does not want to win the junior championship, he wants to win the senior championship. When Michelle Kwan was 12 her coach wouldn't let her test up to seniors (for u.S. competitions), so she snuck behind his back (fibbing to her father to take her) and did it anyway. Two years later she was sent to, and won, the World Junior Championship, but I don't think it meant anything to her.

That said…Grant Hochstein!

 

[Tavi...]

@Mrs. P - Sorry, my post wasn't actually directed at your preseason poll - it was more directed at comments from people who seem ready to crown Nathan US champion based on the fact that he's won two summer competitions. But to use your analogy, I think Nathan is like the player who has already been through mini camp, OTAs and training camp, and played in all 4 preseason games, while Jason is still at the beginning of training camp. Or something like that.

Speaking of preseason polls, last years predictions had the Bears as a top 5 to 10 team which turned out to be woefully wrong. This year they have them between 20-25 and bottom of the NFC Central, which is really depressing but probably not far off reality. :disapp:

 

[karne]

But to use your analogy, I think Nathan is like the player who has already been through mini camp, OTAs and training camp, and played in all 4 preseason games, while Jason is still at the beginning of training camp. Or something like that.

That's a very good analogy.

 

[TMC]

That said…Grant Hochstein!

Yep, he was 19 3/4 years of age when he was sent to JWC :shocked:

*off to search for video*

 

[LRK]

OT But - I don't follow juniors, really, but e'en so I watched a competition or two of junior men last season, and it really struck me... the mix of boys from the small, tiny fellows to these big, hulking lads and all sizes in between.. I found it amusing, in a way.

 

[TMC]

OT But - I don't follow juniors, really, but e'en so I watched a competition or two of junior men last season, and it really struck me... the mix of boys from the small, tiny fellows to these big, hulking lads and all sizes in between.. I found it amusing, in a way.

Haha me too!

 

[ice coverage]

@Mrs. P - Sorry, my post wasn't actually directed at your preseason poll - it was more directed at comments from people who seem ready to crown Nathan US champion based on the fact that he's won two summer competitions. But to use your analogy, I think Nathan is like the player who has already been through mini camp, OTAs and training camp, and played in all 4 preseason games, while Jason is still at the beginning of training camp. Or something like that. ...

That's a very good analogy.

No offense, but IMO, the analogy is weak.
Nathan and Jason both competed at both the Broadmoor Open and at Glacier Falls.
So they both have played in the exact same "preseason games."
(I do agree that their goals for the preseason games prob. were not the same.)

To me, the one objective difference is that Nathan already took part in the USFS ISP camp and Jason still has Champs Camp ahead of him.

(Stupid question: What does OTAs stand for?)