2015-16 State of U.S. Men's Figure Skating

[Jammers]

He will probably stay a Junior internationally at least for another year after this season. Seeing as how Nathan stayed a Junior this season even though he's probably ready for Seniors Vincent shouldn't rush either plus he needs more experience.

 

[Mrs. P]

Totally agree about Vincent being too young. I wish they would keep him in juniors for a couple more years. He's been off the ice with injury more than he's been on the ice. Give him a chance to mature both physically and choreographically. (is that a word?)

He will probably stay a Junior internationally at least for another year after this season. Seeing as how Nathan stayed a Junior this season even though he's probably ready for Seniors Vincent shouldn't rush either plus he needs more experience.

Vincent Zhou already has a U.S. junior title under his belt (yes from 2013, but still), so I think it's reasonable for him to go the senior level domestically.

 

[Mrs. P]

Pulling some posts from the USA JGP Men's FS thread that is relevant for discussion. Onward!

Tl:dr- Nathan's competiveness among the senior U.S. men, Nathan v. Jason (reigning U.S. Champ).

Believe it or not, last year 255 wouldn't have put him on the National team. Farris was 3rd with 267.98.

None of the 3 guys who made the National team landed clean quads in their programs. But Brown, who has never landed a rotated quad in competition, and never two rotated 3as in a FS, did manage to finish 4th at Worlds, so he is basically a shoo-in to make the team again on PCS alone. Farris seems to be chronically injured (he is again, at the present time, although not seriously) so he does have to deliver at Nationals to make the team. Rippon is mercurial---he has good years and bad years; last year was a good one, but he is notoriously unpredictable. His 8th place at 2015 Worlds helped the US hold onto the 3 spots, so he is in good standing with USFS for now---but he has to deliver at Nationals. If both Farris and Rippon are fairly good at Nationals, they will tend to be held up via PCS scores, so they are the ones Nathan has to beat. He not only has to beat them technically, but he has to perform without looking or feeling self-conscious. He has to convince USFS that he is not just a jumping bean, but an all-around skater.

He also landed two 3As at junior worlds FS in 2013
And during Rostelecom (albeit with -GOE on the second).

All that said, I don't think Nathan is just a jumping bean. He can stand to be more expressive and perform more but he checks the boxes for good pcs-- speed, ice coverage, transitions. If he skates like that at nationals he'll be in the top 3 no doubt.

Wow I vastly prefer this to anything Jason Brown has produced except 'may be' River Dance. It is probably one of the best Junior men's performance I have seen since watching Hanyu years ago. Why can't Han Yan get a decent classical program like this? It has the hall mark of 'I am gunning for the Olympic GOLD in a few years time' written all over it.

It will be a shame if his PCS get repressed at US nationals because of his apparent lack of cheap schtick schlock due to some crap reason like apparent lack emotion due to 'Asianess' lol...

He has huge potential, he already improved massively from what I remember. I was never a fan, but I may just be in the future if he keep doing good work like this, like how I felt about Patrick Chan. The MJ SP makes a nice combo with this one I thought.

Why are you bringing up "Asianess" as a reason that Nathan's scores would be suppressed? Needless to say, many skaters of Asian descent have enormously impressive interpretation skills, and PC scores to match. I have tried yet a third time to watch Nathan's LP. And the SP. Rarely with any skater have I gotten so much the feeling: it's 2:45, time to lift my arm, cock my head to the side, oh, it's 3:14, time to gesture to the left, and look to the right for 15 seconds (and I felt it even more in the MJ program. Does he even know what moves of MJ's he is using or why?)
ETA: times and moves are made up as examples, of course
I feel really bad talking about a 16 year old kid this way; he has time, and I would think the dedication and wherewithal to fix this and have his interpretation match his skating. Right now, I would just as soon watch James Min of Australia, a junior with half the tech but twice the interpretative skills. And of course I prefer Jason. Or Adam. Or Josh. When Nathan has their interpretation, and the tech, he'll be a world beater. But at least for me, not yet.

I don't see the point of keeping Nathan out of senior Worlds if he continues to skate this well. Send Vincent Zhou and Andrew Torgashev to Debrecen and call it a day.

Because of his apparent lack of cheap shtick? What is that supposed to mean?

Stuff applies to Brown. General campiness, kitscheness to mask his artistic deficiencies or temperament which are more apparent with the the current choice of FS, a potential beautiful program without gimmick (jazzy hands are banned). Along with his FS last year he showed he does not have natural ability to really feel the subtlety of music or understand the nuances except with greater practice and refinement. He is a very good Junior skater, but these are Junior programs that been artificially inflated as the best of US likely to due to his likability and popularity to River Dance (legendary category, but it is no more than Gangnam Style to me). If he had skated for Latvia, he wouldn't have nearly got the marks he has got.

Brown is the Russian Lenova with doubled inflated PCS Good and bad.

Sure, that's why Brown finished 4th at Worlds 2015: he pulled the wool over nine judges' eyes. BTW, there was no US judge on the panel---they were nearly all European, with 3 from former SSRs (RUS, KAZ, UKR) plus POL and ISR. They all wanted a junior skater close to the podium :sarcasm:.

Reads to me like sour grapes from a Vassiljevs fan.

:agree:

I'll stick with the judge's assessment of Jason's PCS right now. And Nathan should pray, work and hope that he gets half of Jason's performance skills (likewise, what would happen if Jason had Nathan's quad triple combo?). But as of yet, that perfect male US skater does not exist, so I'll watch the ones we have....

We do. LOL! And I don't think anyone is arguing that Nathan's artistry is comparable to Jason's. Shoot. Three competitions ago, I thought it was pretty impressive that Nathan looked like he was going to give Richard Dornbush something to worry about. Now, we're somehow talking about Jason? That's pretty incredible in my mind. (Comes with landing four triple axles & how many quads in a row? Six?) If Jason loses at Nationals to Nathan, it will be Jason's fault. But Josh? Adam? Max? I look back at last season and try to find a guy who hit a clean short & a clean long with two triple axles & two quads. About the only guys who spring to mind were standing on the world podium.

For me, the question isn't does Nathan have the presentation of the seasoned guys. It's can Nathan develop that kind of presentation? And--yeah--I think he has the potential. He hears his music. And he can move. I don't think he's a natural artist the way some of these guys are, but I think he is a student. I think someone tells him he needs choreography, and he listens. He studies. He keeps it. He perfects it.

One thing I do feel pretty certain about is that if Nathan goes out into the senior men’s field and knocks off three solid free skates in a row the way he has just done, his score rises every time. We’ve seen it happen again and again and again.

 

[Interspectator]

Nathan impressed again on the JGP Colorado. A reason some might think he could win the US crown could be because Jason, the current title holder, is trying the 4T this year. This jump is notorious for making consistency of other jumps uncertain for a time until you get the hang of it. IF Jason is inconsistent due to putting in the 4T, and Nathan continues to be consistent, in such a scenario, Jason's scores would stall and Nathan's would increase. Of course there are many other factors and contenders to take into account.

As it is right now, Nathan seems to be on the right track to get on the National podium with a slim shot at the title.

And lest people think I am 'crowning' Nathan, I understand that he still has shortcomings and is very young. But this is how youngsters rise quickly in the ranks...through consistently difficult technical programs.

Nationals in the US will be something to look forward to.

 

[karne]

And here we go again with the crowning of a kid. *fumes*

 

[Interspectator]

And here we go again with the crowning of a kid. *fumes*

Did you read my post at all?

 

[karne]

Did you read my post at all?

I was reacting to the series of ever-more-ludicrous, idiotic posts from the JGP thread.

 

[Jammers]

Let's be honest though when is the last time the US has had a men's skater who at 16 can land quads consistently? He does need to work on his spins he's giving up way to many points on them and of course i would like to see him project more. But kudos for him fighting through injuries and growth spurts and coming back stronger.

 

[karne]

Let's be honest though when is the last time the US has had a men's skater who at 16 can land quads consistently? He does need to work on his spins he's giving up way to many points on them and of course i would like to see him project more. But kudos for him fighting through injuries and growth spurts and coming back stronger.

Well hang on, isn't the thing everyone is carrying on like pork chops about that it's NOT "all about the quad"? That was the justification used for people to get upset about Max being National champion, for people to justify wishing for him to fall at Worlds 2014, for the people who do nothing but complain about his supposed "lack of artistry"? And then suddenly now that we do have a National champion with divine skating skills and spins, oh no no, that's not good enough, now it's all about the jumps, it's always about the jumps. Joshua can't be relied upon, people moan, he's always injured, but sure, let's put a crown on a kid who at 16 has accrued as many injuries as Joshua had at the same age.

And no no no no no, Vincent Zhou should not go up to Senior, he's not polished enough yet! But Nathan Chen should be the National Champion!

 

[Ice Dance]

And here we go again with the crowning of a kid. *fumes*

Not a single poster above "crowned" Nathan. In fact, none of them called him a favorite. They're saying he's in the mix.

And Max did win that national championship. He also helped earn the U.S. team a spot at Worlds after missing out on an Olympic berth. Max is a competitor.

Nathan is a competitor with all caps. Definitely the most consistent young male competitor I've seen at U.S. nationals since I attended my first nationals in 2006. Maybe the most consistent young competitor in any discipline.

 

[Tavi...]

@newbiespectator I agree with you. So far Jason has really struggled in both programs, and realistically, it's quite possible that those struggles will continue through and even beyond nationals. If that happens, I think there's a very real chance Nathan could win. At this point I much prefer other skaters, but he's got a really good quad and he does enough well in other areas to make him a strong contender.

As to your comments @os168, all I can say is that your blind prejudice against Jason is about as unattractive as your speculation that Nathan might not be allowed to win the US title because he looks Asian.

 

[silverfoxes]

Nathan's age shouldn't matter at all...if he's old enough to compete as a senior, he's old enough to medal and go to Worlds, if he delivers better than others. Nam Nguyen and Elena Radionova are national champs & they are the same age (well, I guess Nam turned 17 in May, but he was 16 at Nats & Worlds). I think it's funny how many people on here consider (Russian) ladies to be "done" and washed up at 16, but Nathan is "just a kid". Is there supposed to be some sort of pecking order based on age? They may as well skip the competition in that case and just hand out the medals.

 

[Mrs. P]

Men do tend to peak later than ladies, FWIW. Yuzuru Hanyu was a young upstart having earned World bronze at 17 and OGM at 19. But the last few OGMs have been all over the age of 20: 24 (Lysacek, 2010), 23 (Plushenko, 2006), 22 (Yagudin, 2002), 20 (Kulik, 1998), 22 (Petrenko).

All that said, Nathan is definite a candidate for the National title, regardless of his age and he put down the gauntlet with two solid skates. Earning nearly 89 in TES in the free skate at this point of the year is quite noteworthy. For perspective, only one man had a higher FS TES last season -- Joshua Farris at 4CC (91.02). And the highest AVERAGE TES (i.e. indicator of the amount of consistent technical content) was Max Aaron at 77.91, so not even breaking 80. If Nathan keeps skating like this, he'd be hard to ignore.

 

[OS]

@newbiespectator I agree with you. So far Jason has really struggled in both programs, and realistically, it's quite possible that those struggles will continue through and even beyond nationals. If that happens, I think there's a very real chance Nathan could win. At this point I much prefer other skaters, but he's got a really good quad and he does enough well in other areas to make him a strong contender.

As to your comments @os168, all I can say is that your blind prejudice against Jason is about as unattractive as your speculation that Nathan might not be allowed to win the US title because he looks Asian.

I think you misunderstood my point entirely. I was saying the opposite infact. (You do realise I am Asian, and actually this stereotype has been the worst reason to justify lower PCS for some of my fav skaters) I completely frown upon these stereotype that Asian don't emote as well so shouldn't receive high PCS (which seems to be a view propagated among a few include Liz Manley), while something obvious like a Jason Brown's gimmicky choreography program get revered as the second coming of US figure skating is very funny to me.

Bear in mind when Jason was in teens junior->senior in the same year Hanyu with his world record breaking SP only received 43 PCS at Japanese Nationals (already inflated), Patrick Chan 44 (Canadian Nationals '12), Maxim with the humongous piss take inflation from Russian Nationals only received 43.90, here's Jason with one of the most hokey gimmicky programs got 44+. As a Junior>Senior had the 2nd highest ever SP score in US National history with PCS that has been marked higher than multiple world champions, world record breakers at their own inflated nationals. A difference of 79.75 at Skate America vs 93.36 at US Nationals. While inflation can be expected, this has to take the cake.

So it will be interesting to see how much inflation Nathan Chen get by US Nationals on a relative basis, does he get equal treatment, especially he is just as consistent with 2 quads and they are pretty decent programs. Bear in mind some of the reason given to Jason's inflation was consistency and reliability at the time (I usually roll my eye ball at this, blimey... of course he is consistent because he is not even trying for quads while everyone else is!)

So lets see at US nationals, if federation do indeed treat all skaters equally and he get equal inflation treatment given established precedence for their former junior skater.

 

[Seren]

I disagree with comments like those above which describe Jason's skating as "hokey". Jason's skating skills are really, really good, part of why they are so good is that he's had to hone them to make up some of the difference lacking a quad makes (have whatever opinion you want about the quad). While I didn't like his SP Juke the first time I saw it, it did grow on me. It's a musical trope and he was playing that character. My guess is that people who don't like it would probably say the same thing about the music and style it was based on. Say what you want about Jason's skills based on his jumps but he really skates to the music which is more than I can say about many skaters. I'd rather watch Jason than some splatfest.

And no I don't think Jason deserved any higher at worlds even though I think his artistry (whatever that means) is better, for better or worse he needs the quad to be internationally competitive otherwise he will be passed by up and comers like Chen.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

And here we go again with the crowning of a kid. *fumes*

Uh, I don't think anyone is crowning Nathan. If anything, I picture him going clean again at Nationals, only to lose out to Brown/Farris because he doesn't have high enough PCS as compared to the faves. But surely if Nathan keeps this up and the other guys have scrappy GP events, USFSA will take notice and be ready to crown him should he skate well at Nationals and the others bomb.

Also, what's wrong with the crowning of a kid? He's landed more clean quads than Farris/Rippon did last season, attempted more quads than Brown did last season, and is already a better quality skater than Aaron (IMO).

 

[georgia]

Uh, I don't think anyone is crowning Nathan. If anything, I picture him going clean again at Nationals, only to lose out to Brown/Farris because he doesn't have high enough PCS as compared to the faves. But surely if Nathan keeps this up and the other guys have scrappy GP events, USFSA will take notice and be ready to crown him should he skate well at Nationals and the others bomb.

Also, what's wrong with the crowning of a kid? He's landed more clean quads than Farris/Rippon did last season, attempted more quads than Brown did last season, and is already a better quality skater than Aaron (IMO).

Agreed! Here is the thing. In many people's mind only Jason deserves the honor! I think USFS know already the value of Jonathan!

 

[Jaana]

Agreed! Here is the thing. In many people's mind only Jason deserves the honor! I think USFS know already the value of Jonathan!

Who is Jonathan?

 

[OS]

Who is Jonathan?

I think geogia meant Nathan?

Anyway I have nothing against Jason Brown personally, but I do think he has been over valued by default of his standing with the US federation than his ability. Likability, popularity shouldn't affect the marks too much, but seems particularly applies to him in this case, more than any skaters internationally. When that happens, this ceased to be a competitive sport but some sort of popularity contest. Take his PCS and based on those programs, is he really Jeremy Abbott good? Adam Rippon good? Josh? Hanyu? Patrick? Talent, skating skill, musicality, interpretation, would you really put above any of them? Why does the mark say otherwise, especially at home?

While I won't deny he has some good quality to his skating but he is just a good junior who has been coasting on his River Dance success. He is far from complete in his artistic endeavours (as well as tech) to warrant that level of PCS scoring he has been gifted at US Nationals right at start. While everyone else trodding away for years risking their quads never got the break they needed to progress internationally. How can anyone not look at these marks for a Junior skater/program and take these scores seriously? He made Maxim look undermarked! That is just crazy and embarrassing. .

One could also consider now Jason got the PCS pull internationally was due to the absence of Abbott as the perceived US Leading man, who have always been better received and respected internationally.

 

[Poker]

I am also starting to have confidence in Nathan's ability to compete for Team USA in the coming years.

Seeing el henry and karne attack Nathan openly, I would like to write a few words. It’s useless to reason with karne from down under who would smear any skater, Evan, Jeremy, Maxim come to mind, posing a threat to G.B.F.A. I am responding to eh’s statements below.

Quote Originally Posted by el henry

"I have tried yet a third time to watch Nathan's LP. And the SP. Rarely with any skater have I gotten so much the feeling: it's 2:45, time to lift my arm, cock my head to the side, oh, it's 3:14, time to gesture to the left, and look to the right for 15 seconds (and I felt it even more in the MJ program. Does he even know what moves of MJ's he is using or why?) ETA: times and moves are made up as examples [Yes, it’s convenient to make things up as examples, even things in a skater's mind. How low can you go?], of course I feel really bad talking about a 16 year old kid this way [It doesn’t sound you feel bad at all. You were enjoying living in his head while he was skating.]; he has time, and I would think the dedication and wherewithal to fix this and have his interpretation match his skating. Right now, I would just as soon watch James Min of Australia, a junior with half the tech but twice the interpretative skills [Talking about smearing without fact and data: James’ Interpretation was 3.75 while Nathan’s was 7.18 at JGP Colorado Springs. How could that be twice the interpretative skills? Again you are just making up stuff and disregarding facts.]."

"I'll stick with the judge's assessment of Jason's PCS right now [You didn’t, when it’s not convenient to you. At 2015 Glacier Falls, Jason had 8.13 SS, 8.31 TR, 7.31 PE, 8.31 CH, 8.56 IN and Nathan had 8.19 SS, 8.00 TR, 8.25 PE, 8.31 CH, 8.25 IN. You probably will say this PCS is invalid because Jason didn’t care about the program and the performance this early in the season.]. And Nathan should pray, work and hope that he gets half of Jason's performance skills [Thank you for offering Nathan your kind advice. But it should read: “eh should pray and hope that Nathan gets half of Jason's performance skills.”] "

You probably have not watched, and won’t, some of these great performances of Nathan’s, but I’ll paste them here as reference to his performance skills that you have belittled.

2010: “Peter and the Wolf”
2011: “Stereo Hearts”
2012: “Praeludium and Allegro”
2012 “Three Musketeers“
2015 “Michael Jackson”

Unlike you, Nathan seemed humble in this TLC interview. In answering the Nam and Nathan comparison question, Nathan said he tried to keep away from skating boards and pay no attention to them. Good choice.