Who will make it to the GP final?

[The Finn]

These are my predictions.

Men
Boyang JIN
Yuzuru HANYU
Han YAN
Shoma UNO
Javier FERNANDEZ
Denis Ten

Ladies
Elizaveta TUKTAMYSHEVA
Evgenia MEDVEDEVA
Mao ASADA
Anna POGORILAYA
Elena RADIONOVA
Julia LIPNITSKAIA

Pairs
Tatiana VOLOSOZHAR / Maxim TRANKOV
Evgenia TARASOVA / Vladimir MOROZOV
Wenjing SUI / Cong HAN
Meagan DUHAMEL / Eric RADFORD
Yuko KAVAGUTI / Alexander SMIRNOV
Ksenia STOLBOVA / Fedor KLIMOV

Ice Dance
Elena ILINYKH / Ruslan ZHIGANSHIN
Gabriella PAPADAKIS / Guillaume CIZERON
Kaitlyn WEAVER / Andrew POJE
Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES
Anna CAPPELLINI / Luca LANOTTE
Anna YANOVSKAYA / Sergey MOZGOV

 

[sabinfire]

Ladies
Elizaveta TUKTAMYSHEVA
Evgenia MEDVEDEVA
Mao ASADA
Anna POGORILAYA
Elena RADIONOVA
Julia LIPNITSKAIA

5/6 Russians, eh? You're going all in!

 

[The Finn]

5/6 Russians, eh? You're going all in!

They got 4 skaters to the GP final both 2013-14 and 2014-15, so, 5 skaters in this season should not be a surprise to anyone.

 

[Layback11]

I thought I heard P/C were out until November...has that been confirmed?

I say:

1 Liza Tuktamysheva
2 Mao Asada
3 Elena Radionova
4 Satoko Miyahara
5 Gracie Gold
6 Evgenia Medvedeva

ALTERNATES
Rika Hongo, Anna Pogorilaya, Ashley Wagner

Dance:

1 C/B
2 W/P
3 I/Z
4 S/S
5 G/P
6 B/S
Alternates: S/B, M/K, Y/M

 

[s_parks]

Pairs is hard. K/S are on the bubble imo- they have good scoring potential obviously, but if they're messy, Y/J could sneak in. T/M have a pretty good chance of getting that last spot considering the field at their assignments, but they're inconsistent, especially in the first half of the season and wouldn't bet on them making it over p/z. I say D/R, V/T, S/K, S/H, P/Z almost for certain, with K/S, T/M, and Y/J contending for that last spot.

 

[sabinfire]

They got 4 skaters to the GP final both 2013-14 and 2014-15, so, 5 skaters in this season should not be a surprise to anyone.

That would be a surprise to me. I'd think if Satoko places any higher than 3rd at either Skate America or NHK, someone would likely not make that list? Ah well, interesting prediction nonetheless.

 

[Ice Dance]

I thought I heard P/C were out until November...has that been confirmed?

Their first scheduled GP event is in November (TEB). Their recent announcement said they are now planning to debut at that event. Their second GP isn't until NHK. TEB is a late start for a debut, but P&C will be at home in a comparatively weak field. Even if they have a naturally rough debut, their closest competition was ranked 5 spots below them in sixth at last year's Worlds. Gilles & Poirier. Silver & bronze should be interesting at TEB; but as dance fields go, this is likely the second weakest field on the GP (after SA). And the widest gap at the top, with the top being the reigning World champions skating at home.

Of course as long as Gabriella's health is a question mark, their entrance remains one as well.

 

[silverfoxes]

The only men I'd feel safe predicting this early are Yuzuru and Javi. Then there are about 8-10 possibilities, at least, and I have no idea who is going to deliver and who will blow it.

 

[randomfan]

Right now, I want to say that I think Mao, Liza, Ashley, and Satoko will make it.
The other possible ladies are:

Rika Hongo (I think she'll be an alternate but she is looking good so far so maybe she could qualify in the top 6)
Elena Radionova (Big question mark for me - not sure how she'll be skating this season)
Evgenia Medvedeva (Consistent and gets big scores but in her senior debut)
Anna Pogorilaya (I initially didn't think she'd make it but after Mordovian Ornament there is a good chance)
Gracie Gold (Something tells me that Gracie will start skating more consistently this year)
Polina Edmunds (May be an alternate, but probably not one of the top 6 qualifiers)
Alena Leonova (Unlikely to become a top 6 qualifier due to her FS mistakes, but she has a shot)

Then there's Yulia Lipnitskaya, who's also a big question mark. But she seems to be struggling a lot. I remember reading a post saying that she may become the Russian Mirai Nagasu, and sadly I think that is possible. And there are so many other skaters who have the potential to make the final but they just do not have much reputation. Examples are Kaetlyn Osmond and So Youn Park.

But for both of those cases, Skate America has not even started, so it's very likely (if not guaranteed) that this list will be very wrong throughout the GP season. I just hope everyone skates well.

 

[HanDomi]

Hanyu, Chan, Fernandez, Uno, Jin, Mura

 

[Florencito]

Hanyu (1°, 1°), Javier (1°, 1°), Uno (1°, 2°), Chan (3°, 1°), Nguyen (2°, 2°), Aaron (2°, 3°)

Mao (1°, 1°), Medvedeva (1°, 1°), Liza (1°, 1°), Pogorilaya (2°, 2°), Miyahara (2°, 3°), Gold (3°, 2°)

Duhamel/Radford (1°, 1°), Sui/Han (1° 1°), Volosozhar/Trankov (2°, 1°), Stolbova/Klimov (2°, 1°), Peng/Zhang (2°, 2°), Tarasova/Morozov (2°, 3°)

Chock/Bates (1°, 1°), Weaver/Poje (1°, 2°), Gilles/Porier (2°, 1°), Ilinykh/Ziganshin (2°, 1°), Bobrova/Soloviev (2°, 1°), Papadakis/Cizeron (3°, 2°)

Yep, I was bored

 

[Marin]

Pairs: Duhamel/Radford, Volosozhar/Trankov, Tarasova/Morozov , Sui/Han , Peng/Zhang, Yu/Jin
Ice dance: Chock/Bates, Weaver/Poje, Ilinykh/Ziganshin , Gilles/Porier,Papadakis/Cizeron, Shibutanis
Ladies: Liza Tuktamysheva, Mao Asada, Gracie Gold, Rika Hongo, Evgenia Medvedeva, Ashley,Wagner
Men: Hanyu, Fernandez, Chan, Jin, Aaron, Murakami.

 

[Alex D]

I wish all skaters a healthy skate and would be very pleased to see Gracie and Kaetlyn in the final.

 

[kalee]

Hmm... would be interesting to see how these predictions change during the course of the GP competitions. Right now before any GPs have started, my bets would be as follows:
1. Mao Asada (#1 CoC, #1 NHK = 30 points)
2. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva (#1 Skate Canada, #1 TEB = 30 points)
3. Satoko Miyahara (#1 Skate America, #2 NHK = 28 points)
4. Evgenia Medvedeva (#2 Skate America, #2 Rostelecom = 26 points)
5. Elena Radionova (#2 CoC, #3 Rostelecom = 24 points)
6. Gracie Gold (#3 Skate America, #2 TEB = 24 points)

Alternates: guessing that this could be any subset of Rika Hongo, Anna Pogorilaya, Polina Edmunds, Ashley Wagner, Yulia Lipnitskaia.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Who do you think will win Rostelecom? I mean I always thought Medvedeva but you have her 2nd...

 

[Rissa]

The only men I'd feel safe predicting this early are Yuzuru and Javi. Then there are about 8-10 possibilities, at least, and I have no idea who is going to deliver and who will blow it.

Yep.

Denis Ten is already out of contention, no matter what happens at TEB. But surprisingly, Max Aaron joined the race. If he finishes even fifth at TEB, he'd have 22 points which, given that it's Men's field, might qualify him.

My predictions for now (due to revision after Skate Canada after we see what shape Patrick Chan is in)

1. Patrick Chan (30 points)
2. Javier Fernandez (30/28 points, depends on whether Han Yan or Boyang Jin pull a Max Aaron)
3. Yuzuru Hanyu (28 points)
4. Shoma Uno (26/24 poins, I think he's even surer a bet than Max Aaron)
5. Max Aaron (26/22 points, he's got a VERY good chance since he'll win any tiebreaker)

6.Nam Nguyen (24/22 points, if Vornov beats him at Rostelecom)
6. Boyang Jin (26/22 points, he could get two silvers if others don't step up their game although it's a long shot so I'm putting him behind Nam)

6. Sergei Voronov (24/20, who knows what will happen with Han Yan and Boyang Jin and Nam)
6. Jason Brown (22 points, I think he could make it 3rd at NHK)
6. Kovtun (22/18, because he's going to have some stiff competition at TEB)
6. Han Yan (22/18 points, he might just do well in front of a home audience)


The biggest unknown in here is Patrick, and half of other placements depend on him, so. And on whether or not Denis withrews from TEB

 

[Jaana]

After the first event, I think that the 6 finalists will be found among these 8 skaters (in no particular order):

Chan
Hanyu
Fernandez
Uno
Nguyen
Aaron
Kovtun
Jin

 

[Ice Dance]

Gracie's chances, IMO, go way up now. Lipnitskaia doesn't look likely to stack up at TEB. And if she can't, there's essentially Liza, Meite, & Murakami at TEB. Gracie can do this.

 

[Winnie_20]

Oh no... I just looked at the other events, and Shoma is up against Patrick Chan, Kovtun and Aaron in France. I don't think my heart can take that.

 

[Rissa]

Oh no... I just looked at the other events, and Shoma is up against Patrick Chan, Kovtun and Aaron in France. I don't think my heart can take that.

He can take Kovtun and Aaron if he skates well. There's a high probability of Maxim making a few mistakes and even clean Max Aaron would be beatable without the hometown boost. Everything hangs on Patrick's condition. If he's in good shape, Shoma should make second. If not, Shoma may finish first!

What I'm really curious about is how Patrick will influence PCS. He will skate in the first group (am I right?) and then other big names. Those skating skill scores should drop by comparison!