State of U.S. Ladies' skating 2016-17

[qwerty]

Re: a clean Gracie being unbeatable... this time last year I might've said a clean Gracie is not going to be beaten, but I think that's changed. Medvedeva's PCS gap has closed to the point where she now has an advantage over everyone except perhaps a lights-out Ashley.

When abstracts like "momentum" (read: consistency) unfortunately seem to factor into PCS scoring, I think Gracie has some building time to endure before she enjoys the same PCS she had during Boston SP.

 

[Gullygirl84]

I think that unless Gracie somehow implodes in both programs at Nationals, Ashley and Gracie are still #1 and # 2. The US won't miss out on sending them to Worlds when Olympic spots are on the line unless something is really off at Nationals. Gracie is usually able to pull off one really good program at Nationals and Worlds, allowing her to place high enough to stay in good graces and in contention.

Spot # 3 is open, with Courtney, Mirai, Mariah, and Polina in the running (come to think of it, I still wouldn't discount Karen Chen doing well at her GP events) . I see the third spot wider open this year since Polina has been injured, so we'll see how everyone fares at nationals. Some girls in contention for the third spot last year kind of imploded at Nationals. I kind of think that Mariah shouldn't be too down about not getting a 2nd assignment. This allows her to do well at her assigned Senior B and carry momentum into nationals, which could be dampened if she were to get a 2nd Grand Prix assignment and have more pressure/not do as well.

 

[Sydney Rose]

I just watched the B.ESP guys call the SP Gracie skated today and they were expressing doubts that she would even be at Worlds next year.

I feel absolutely terrible for her. That look on her face . . . .

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I just watched the B.ESP guys call the SP Gracie skated today and they were expressing doubts that she would even be at Worlds next year.

There's still time for her to get herself together for Nationals. She won't have the GPF or anything else to worry about, so she can focus 100% on training and getting as fit as she feels like she needs to. Her lutz still looks good and I think she has landed all 4 attempts so far in the GP. She just needs to pull the rest of her jumps to the same level and then she'll be ok.

 

[Sydney Rose]

But is fitness or lack of training really her problem?

Doubling a required triple and singling an axel makes me wonder if she's developed a phobia to falling.

 

[NAOTMAA]

But is fitness or lack of training really her problem?

Doubling a required triple and singling an axel makes me wonder if she's developed a phobia to falling.

Frankly I think people are just searching for something, ANYTHING, to shallowly explain her current troubles. Is she not in tip top competition shape? Maybe. Could she be in better shape? Maybe. But she's not so out of shape physically that she be experiencing the problems she is now. It's all in her heard. It's same path with Mirai about making every possible excuse that can made in order to not face the truth.

And I think you're right about her doubling/singling in order not to fall, which she probably mentally fears more then anything. EXCEPT somebody should have told her that rotating the jump and falling is BETTER then doubling/singling. It's actually destroying her more then actually falling

 

[shyne]

Gracie needs to take the Flip out of her SP and replace it with 3Lo for a change. This jump has become her mental block.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Gracie needs to take the Flip out of her SP and replace it with 3Lo for a change. This jump has become her mental block.

She falls on the loop too.

 

[qwerty]

Objectively, from the perspective of this GP season, Gracie is no longer US #1 or #2. Ashley, Mariah and Courtney (!) have all outperformed her. I think Gracie will enter Nationals having to truly fight for her spot for the first time in a few seasons. (IMO, her GP seasons in 14-15 and 15-16 would have outweighed a terrible Nationals. Not so now).

I think it's to the point where if she were to skate like she has on the GP at Nationals and finish off the podium, there would be raised eyebrows at putting her on the World team.

That said, given Polina being out of commission thus far, Mirai's underrotation issues, and injuries to other women, I actually don't feel that Gracie's place on the World team is in severe jeopardy, considering she has two full months to train now. Hopefully she can make whatever changes need to happen to get back on track.

 

[stella luna]

This is a horrible time for Polina to be out of commission.

Objectively, from the perspective of this GP season, Gracie is no longer US #1 or #2. Ashley, Mariah and Courtney (!) have all outperformed her. I think Gracie will enter Nationals having to truly fight for her spot for the first time in a few seasons. (IMO, her GP seasons in 14-15 and 15-16 would have outweighed a terrible Nationals. Not so now).

I think it's to the point where if she were to skate like she has on the GP at Nationals and finish off the podium, there would be raised eyebrows at putting her on the World team.

That said, given Polina being out of commission thus far, Mirai's underrotation issues, and injuries to other women, I actually don't feel that Gracie's place on the World team is in severe jeopardy, considering she has two full months to train now. Hopefully she can make whatever changes need to happen to get back on track.

 

[qwerty]

This is a horrible time for Polina to be out of commission.

The depth of our women has been a bit lacking this fall so far.

 

[stella luna]

Watching Gracie's LP in France just now on youtube gave me a headache.

The depth of our women has been a bit lacking this fall so far.

 

[andromache]

If Gracie is no longer US #2, then who is? No one. Aside from Ashley who is the clear #1, we've got 5 or so ladies who could all contend for spots 2-3, but none of whom could probably contend for a World medal this year even with clean skating aside from Gracie.

When clean:

Gracie


Mariah
Mirai (assuming no URs)
Karen
Courtney/Polina

All of these girls are question marks when it comes to consistency, either because they are known hot messes (Gracie, Courtney) or because they haven't competed enough yet this season (everyone else).

Assuming she earns it, give Ashley her National title back in January. Then let the skaters who place 2-4 grit it out against one another at 4CCs and send the two who skate the best to Worlds. Put the pressure on to skate two non-disaster competitions back to back. If whoever wins silver at Nationals bombs at 4CCs, that's too bad. Send the most reliable.

Even Gracie's bad performances last year showed that she was still good enough to play a major role in keeping those 3 spots, so she was worth sending even if she's unreliable. But fifth and eighth at GP events? Those performances would've gotten her buried at Worlds. Plus, she skated better at SA than in France, so she hasn't exactly made forward progress. She's lost the benefit of the doubt and the US can't risk sending her over someone potentially more stable. But there might not be two US ladies who can consistently outskate this year's version of Gracie.

It'd be a huge mistake to pick the Worlds team based on Nationals alone.

 

[qwerty]

If Gracie is no longer US #2, then who is? No one. Aside from Ashley who is the clear #1, we've got 5 or so ladies who could all contend for spots 2-3, but none of whom could probably contend for a World medal this year even with clean skating aside from Gracie.

When clean:

Gracie


Mariah
Mirai (assuming no URs)
Karen
Courtney/Polina

All of these girls are question marks when it comes to consistency, either because they are known hot messes (Gracie, Courtney) or because they haven't competed enough yet this season (everyone else).

Assuming she earns it, give Ashley her National title back in January. Then let the skaters who place 2-4 grit it out against one another at 4CCs and send the two who skate the best to Worlds. Put the pressure on to skate two non-disaster competitions back to back. If whoever wins silver at Nationals bombs at 4CCs, that's too bad. Send the most reliable.

Even Gracie's bad performances last year showed that she was still good enough to play a major role in keeping those 3 spots, so she was worth sending even if she's unreliable. But fifth and eighth at GP events? Those performances would've gotten her buried at Worlds. Plus, she skated better at SA than in France, so she hasn't exactly made forward progress. She's lost the benefit of the doubt and the US can't risk sending her over someone potentially more stable. But there might not be two US ladies who can consistently outskate this year's version of Gracie.

It'd be a huge mistake to pick the Worlds team based on Nationals alone.

I agree with the sentiment of this, except in the scenario where Gracie skates competently at Nationals and finishes top three; I wouldn't require her to cement her standing at 4CC. Her PCS advantage over everyone, save Ashley, is too valuable to leave home if her jumps are more secure come January.

 

[R.D.]

Objectively, from the perspective of this GP season, Gracie is no longer US #1 or #2. Ashley, Mariah and Courtney (!) have all outperformed her. I think Gracie will enter Nationals having to truly fight for her spot for the first time in a few seasons. (IMO, her GP seasons in 14-15 and 15-16 would have outweighed a terrible Nationals. Not so now).

I think it's to the point where if she were to skate like she has on the GP at Nationals and finish off the podium, there would be raised eyebrows at putting her on the World team.

That said, given Polina being out of commission thus far, Mirai's underrotation issues, and injuries to other women, I actually don't feel that Gracie's place on the World team is in severe jeopardy, considering she has two full months to train now. Hopefully she can make whatever changes need to happen to get back on track.

Generally I agree with this post. However, that being said, looking at it from the lens of JUST the GP season is very limiting. A lot can change in 2+ months (yes, that's how long it is to US Nationals) and generally, Gold will be coming to a crossroads in her career at that point. With Edmunds sidelined and the other ladies questionable at best, I wouldn't worry too much about her status at this point - but, if she finds herself still struggling in January, she will need to dig deep and get through the competition disaster-free.

The depth of our women has been a bit lacking this fall so far.

Yes, not exactly an encouraging sign of the future.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

This is a horrible time for Polina to be out of commission.

Yeah, I don't think we would end up with 3 Olympic spots with Polina and Gracie off the team. A lot of women get first time jitters at worlds.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

It'd be a huge mistake to pick the Worlds team based on Nationals alone.

I think the team must be Ashley Wagner, plus the top two finishers at Nationals not named Ashley Wagner. You can't put Mariah or Courtney on the team based on one non-gold GP medal if someone else finishes ahead of them.

 

[andromache]

I think the team must be Ashley Wagner, plus the top two finishers at Nationals not named Ashley Wagner. You can't put Mariah or Courtney on the team based on one non-gold GP medal if someone else finishes ahead of them.

No one has really proved themselves on the GP this season, which is a shame. (I guess Karen Chen still has a chance to have two good outings, or Courtney could pick up another GP medal.) That's why I think USFS should use 4CCs to decide who besides Ashley goes to Worlds. It's not worth risking 3 Olympic spots based on what could be a fluke good performance or two at Nationals. Ladies #2 and #3 can't afford to Jeremy Abbott the end of the season.

ETA: Even if Gracie gets back into her usual groove of one bad program and one great program is good enough to keep 3 spots, most likely. It's helped her place 4th two years in a row.

 

[StitchMonkey]

I think Mariah might be in a better situation than most about holding it together at first worlds as she almost certainly will have Ashley there as well. Ashley has shown to be very supportive of Mariah, and I suspect that Ashley would be a great source of support for her. Basically she gets to take a little slice of normal with her.

 

[desertskates]

I haven't truly felt strongly about Gracie and Frank parting ways until this weekend. These two months between now and nationals are crucial, and it's safe to say that only a drastic change can help her save herself this year and for the upcoming Olympics. Mariah left a vacancy at Camp Kori, and imho, Gracie should be trying to fill it ASAP.