2016-2017 State of U.S. Men Figure Skating

[Tavi...]

Based on what we've seen so far, Jason, Adam, and Nathan are very much on par. It's going to be a thrilling Nationals!

I think a healthy Jason and Nathan are our best bet for three spots for the Olympic year, and I say this as an Adam fan. Nathan has such huge scoring potential, which we saw particularly in the short at TDF. Jason has the PCS and GOE edge over both.

Adam is my personal favorite, and it'd be heartbreaking for him to go clean at Nationals and not place higher than third. But I think if all go clean, it's Nathan, Jason, then Adam.

All three going clean is somewhat unlikely though. A lot will come down to who is cleaner on the quads, particularly to separate Jason and Adam.

I think Max is fighting for 4th this year.

Hmm. I still think it's too soon to predict who will win Nats / make the World team, but I kinda disagree with you about Nathan. Today we saw him perform two pretty brilliant jumping passes and then decline significantly, resulting in scores lower than Adam's. The program was also pretty empty choreographically. Unless he makes changes before NHK - either miraculously increases stamina or revamps program / focus (ie fewer quads) - and judges reward him accordingly, I actually don't see him as a shoe in to win Nats or make World Team. Or at least I think USFS would be dumb to hand him a win. High scoring potential is important but being able to consistently execute your program is key to placing well at Worlds and getting 3 spots for Olys, and I don't think Nathan's there yet.

 

[qwerty]

Hmm. I still think it's too soon to predict who will win Nats / make the World team, but I kinda disagree with you about Nathan. Today we saw him perform two pretty brilliant jumping passes and then decline significantly, resulting in scores lower than Adam's. The program was also pretty empty choreographically. Unless he makes changes before NHK - either miraculously increases stamina or revamps program / focus (ie fewer quads) - and judges reward him accordingly, I actually don't see him as a shoe in to win Nats or make World Team. Or at least I think USFS would be dumb to hand him a win. High scoring potential is important but being able to consistently execute your program is key to placing well at Worlds and getting 3 spots for Olys, and I don't think Nathan's there yet.

Right, I think it could be easier (hah) to predict Nationals after the GP season wraps up- to see how Jason's quad is progressing, and to see how Nathan scores and performs in his next event.

I guess the fact that a rather sloppy Nathan was within 3-4 points of Adam at his very best made me think it wouldn't take much for Nathan to overwhelm Adam (and even Jason) with his base value. When you have that many quads, you don't have to execute with the finesse that a Jason or Adam must.

I don't love this fact, but I think it's a reality with the scoring the way it is at present.

ETA: Adam has maybe ~3-5pts to add to his total score (current layout) with exceptional GOE, PCS, and making sure his LP 3A is in the second half. Nathan has ~20pts to add to his total score just by upgrading his SP double axel, and not messing up his LP jumps. Not going to project his PCS jump.

I guess your point is that a clean 5-quad LP is pretty pie-in-the-sky, which I agree with. That's why that second GP could give us a clearer picture.

 

[Tavi...]

Right, I think it could be easier (hah) to predict Nationals after the GP season wraps up- to see how Jason's quad is progressing, and to see how Nathan scores and performs in his next event.

I guess the fact that a rather sloppy Nathan was within 3-4 points of Adam at his very best made me think it wouldn't take much for Nathan to overwhelm Adam (and even Jason) with his base value. When you have that many quads, you don't have to execute with the finesse that a Jason or Adam must.

I don't love this fact, but I think it's a reality with the scoring the way it is at present.

ETA: Adam has maybe ~3-5pts to add to his total score (current layout) with exceptional GOE, PCS, and making sure his LP 3A is in the second half. Nathan has ~20pts to add to his total score just by upgrading his SP double axel, and not messing up his LP jumps. Not going to project his PCS jump.

I guess your point is that a clean 5-quad LP is pretty pie-in-the-sky, which I agree with. That's why that second GP could give us a clearer picture.

Touché!

ETA I can't recall if it was Kimmie Meisner who said on TSL that doing a program full out - e.g. interpreting it - is tiring. I think we see that in action with Boyang - as he has added more character, transitions, complex footwork to his programs, his jumps / consistency have suffered. I tend to think - with no proof -that there's got to be a limit on how many quads you can do and still do anything else well. Three in a FS and 2 in a SP seem consistently doable for some guys. More than that? Maybe Hanyu. Maybe Shoma. Eventually. Maybe. Nathan's problem to me is that he wants to do everything at once without building up to it. We'll see.

 

[el henry]

Maybe I need to see more of Adam's LP, but, as someone who has grown to really like Adam, and to appreciate his style, I am not seeing the captivating, brings-me-to-tears quality. It's lovely, it's lyrical, he clearly feels and adores it, but it's not, well, it's not "The Piano". Now, I do love me some Jason, but I am trying to look objectively, and I couldn't take my eyes off Jason's SA skate. Adam just did not have that "pull".

That said, Nathan doesn't even have an LP, he has a series of jumping passes. He might as well have a drum roll rather than music. And it ticks me off because his SP showed he does have a personality, (not Jason or Adam, but at least the start of one) so the LP blandness is a choice. A bad one.

And I hope Max slays at COC.

 

[Tahuu]

Nathan made a costly mistake today. Every skater should remember to keep 3 combos in a FS. Had he simply tagged a 1T or 2T to the 4T(hand), his total score would have been 268.64 and 269.63, good for a bronze or silver medal here. He has the best 4T (13.76), 4F (14.44) and 4Lz+3T (19.76, tie with Boyang) in the business. I wish he would drop the problematic 4S and replace it with a 4Lz, repeating 4T and 4Lz in the FS. If clean, he would score over 300.

 

[karne]

Ha ha Karne - don't be insulted. First of all, you know I wrote a lot up there, and sometimes I just get tired of words. Second, if it was unclear, I meant he was fighting those guys for the podium, not fourth or fifth place. I don't think it's impossible for Max to win or take silver, but I do think it's a long shot and bronze would be more likely simply because because it's in China, and he's facing Chan and Jin. Neither of those two has been lights out this year but both have had some great moments and are working hard. If Max skates as well and as confidently as he did at SA last year - and that's what I'm hoping for him - he could do very well. But we haven't seen him in that place yet this season. I hope we do. [/QUPTE]

I don't think it's that long a shot for silver. He came within a whisker of overhauling Kolyada last week at CoR, even after his disastrous short (which he assuredly will have learned from), and he can beat Jin if Jin skates poorly like at Skate America, which it is entirely possible could happen. He can certainly beat the beyond-inconsistent Voronov and Brezina if he hits. But if he hits that FS again and still gets lower PCS than Chen I am going to be through the roof.

As to Jason and Adam, while I personally prefer Jason's skating and believe he deserves higher PCS, I'm trying to be objective. Adam's scores here - SP, FS and total - were very very close to Jason's at SA. That's about an 8 point increase for Adam since SA. About 5 points of that come from not falling on the quad, but his PCS was also a couple of points higher, though still below Jason's. So it seems to me that right now the judges are viewing them roughly as equals. Now if you recall, Jason's TES at SA was initially 98+, so if he fixes whatever caused it to drop (or gets a correct call on the 4T - you know I'm hopeless when it comes to judging <) there may be more separation between his scores and Adam's..

Fine, let me correct it: if the judging is correct Jason would be light years ahead of Adam. He probably does more transitions in the opening ten seconds of his short than Adam does in the entirety of his. Jason also doesn't pump with his back as obviously, has lush deep knees and edges, has actual choreography (and not stand-and-wink, pose-and-shimmy choreography)...the list goes on.

I think a healthy Jason and Nathan are our best bet for three spots for the Olympic year, and I say this as an Adam fan. Nathan has such huge scoring potential, which we saw particularly in the short at TDF. Jason has the PCS and GOE edge over both.
...

I think Max is fighting for 4th this year.

Typical, typical, typical Chen-crowner, throwing Max on the trash heap as usual. See, unlike Chen, Max has actually managed to skate his FS clean with multiple quads. Multiple times. He also - and I know, gasp, shock, horror, this will be difficult to grasp - has actual choreography in his FS, unlike Chen;s jumpathon.

Jason and Max for Worlds, they will not let you down. And the chances are significantly better that both will be healthy for Worlds, too!

 

[shmay]

He came within a whisker of overhauling Kolyada last week at CoR...

He was 10 points behind Kolyada...

 

[andromache]

Unfortunately, Max is less consistent than Adam and Jason. Over the last two seasons, I think Adam has proven how reliable of a skater he has become, and let's not forget that he beat Max at Worlds last year. (And before karne replies with something about how unfair the scoring was or why Max should've beat Adam there, I want to say that that has nothing to do with the point I'm making ).

Nathan should focus on doing a 3 quad LP and doing actual choreography. Come on Marina, aren't you a little embarrassed to put a skater out with a jumping drill?

 

[andromache]

Belatedly noticed this part of your post.
I just scanned through a complete list of May 2016 recipients of Harvard MBAs.
FWIW, among them were alumni of numerous mid-tier (IMO) schools. Including numerous state schools (definitely not limited to higher-prestige state schools such as U Mich, UNC, UVa, UC schools).

And I do think that Max would be a highly attractive candidate to the HBS admissions office.
As karne said, his grades apparently are very strong; he has been national champion and top-ten-in-the-world in the sport of his choice (which speaks to work ethic, discipline, self-motivation, achieving goals, and more); he has traveled the world; etc.
Max would have a lot to offer to his classmates at HBS.

You'll note that I said "in my experience," which is in the extremely competitive humanities (where you're dependent on fellowships and funding) rather than in business. I'm glad that the business school operates differently. I do not think, however, that my brief comment implied that Max would be a bad fit for or would not do well at Harvard and thus somehow merit a list of Max's qualifications which, IMO, kind of go without saying when we are discussing elite figure skaters.

 

[ice coverage]

You'll note that I said "in my experience," which is in the extremely competitive humanities (where you're dependent on fellowships and funding) rather than in business. I'm glad that the business school operates differently. I do not think, however, that my brief comment implied that Max would be a bad fit for or would not do well at Harvard and thus somehow merit a list of Max's qualifications which, IMO, kind of go without saying when we are discussing elite figure skaters.

I will give you the benefit of the doubt that you woke up on the wrong side of the bed this morning.
Otherwise, I don't know why my post deserves your snippiness.

(1) I think both you and I were interested in giving our Australian friend karne some context/perspective regarding Harvard.

(2) IMO, your comment did imply that Max's chances at admission to Harvard were open to question.

(3) Given that there is only one national champion per figure skating discipline per year, they're not exactly a dime a dozen.
I think very highly of Dornbush, for example. But if he were filling out grad school applications today, he would not be able to list national champion among his skating accomplishments.
So as much as I respect all skaters (and believe that they have certain qualities in common), I don't agree that Max's skating resume goes without saying. In fact, I could have added that he has a GP gold (although an admissions officer might not really grasp the significance) -- which sets him apart from other current U.S. men (unless we count Jeremy).

Have a nice day .

 

[Tavi...]

Ha ha Karne - don't be insulted. First of all, you know I wrote a lot up there, and sometimes I just get tired of words. Second, if it was unclear, I meant he was fighting those guys for the podium, not fourth or fifth place. I don't think it's impossible for Max to win or take silver, but I do think it's a long shot and bronze would be more likely simply because because it's in China, and he's facing Chan and Jin. Neither of those two has been lights out this year but both have had some great moments and are working hard. If Max skates as well and as confidently as he did at SA last year - and that's what I'm hoping for him - he could do very well. But we haven't seen him in that place yet this season. I hope we do.

I don't think it's that long a shot for silver. He came within a whisker of overhauling Kolyada last week at CoR, even after his disastrous short (which he assuredly will have learned from), and he can beat Jin if Jin skates poorly like at Skate America, which it is entirely possible could happen. He can certainly beat the beyond-inconsistent Voronov and Brezina if he hits. But if he hits that FS again and still gets lower PCS than Chen I am going to be through the roof.



Fine, let me correct it: if the judging is correct Jason would be light years ahead of Adam. He probably does more transitions in the opening ten seconds of his short than Adam does in the entirety of his. Jason also doesn't pump with his back as obviously, has lush deep knees and edges, has actual choreography (and not stand-and-wink, pose-and-shimmy choreography)...the list goes on.



Typical, typical, typical Chen-crowner, throwing Max on the trash heap as usual. See, unlike Chen, Max has actually managed to skate his FS clean with multiple quads. Multiple times. He also - and I know, gasp, shock, horror, this will be difficult to grasp - has actual choreography in his FS, unlike Chen;s jumpathon.

Jason and Max for Worlds, they will not let you down. And the chances are significantly better that both will be healthy for Worlds, too!

The thing is, the judging is often not what we think it should be. It's frustrating, but it's what the judges call that matters in the end. I may agree with you that Jason has better skating skills, etc than Adam, but the judges are marking them pretty close.

The good thing and the bad thing for Max is that so far this year he's well off his personal bests - about 20 points, I think. It's good because if he figures out the problem, he can potentially improve his score a lot without adding new elements. It's bad because if he doesn't correct it, he could lose out. But the thing is, a lot of his competitors at COC are also off their PBS, including Han Yan and Jin, both of whom will be at home, as well as Brezina, Kovtun and Voronov. So the same thing applies to them, and Brezina and Voronov both seem to be trending upward after coaching changes. Also, Han Yan and Boyang are both hugely underperforming so far this year. So the question for me in terms of medals at COC is whether Max can get back to where he was at SA and Worlds, and whether the 4CC Chan, Yan, and Jin will show up.

Jason's chances at NHK are actually more of a nail biter for me. Kolyada and Hanyu are way off their personal bests so far this year, but Alexei seems to have come out of nowhere, Nam has gotten his mojo back, and Nathan is racking up high scores even with errors. Thankfully Jason is having a strong year, but even if he skates his best, he could place behind a strong Nathan, a resurgent Kolyada, and a Hanyu who is back to normal; if he falters and Bychenko contains his upward trajectory, Bychenko could also beat him.

I guess I look at things this way to kind of manage my expectations.

 

[sc8]

I'm excited for the US men this season and hope that they are able to secure a third spot for next year's Olympics and Worlds because we have at least three deserving men. The Eurosport guys said they think Chen is a threat for the world title if he manages to land all his quads and triple axels, so that's exciting. I hope he continues to improve and gains some consistency as I was hoping he would be able to grab a medal at Trophée de France. Adam's program is really beautiful and I'm excited that he abandoned the 4Lz for the 4T since it is clearly stronger for him and I hope he adds it to the short soon. Jason's program is lovely too. Max making the top 2 seems less likely with Chen, Brown, and Rippon skating well, but he is certainly in the mix. I see the possibility of our top 2 men scoring the 13 or less at worlds that will give us three for the Olympics.

But, I'll admit, I really miss Josh. I hope he is doing well (wouldn't he make a good commentator?). I remember thinking 2018 would be his Olympics. But, it is nice to see our men doing well and improving overall. I'm encouraged. Adam, in particular, looks stronger than ever.

 

[qwerty]

Typical, typical, typical Chen-crowner, throwing Max on the trash heap as usual. See, unlike Chen, Max has actually managed to skate his FS clean with multiple quads. Multiple times. He also - and I know, gasp, shock, horror, this will be difficult to grasp - has actual choreography in his FS, unlike Chen;s jumpathon.

Jason and Max for Worlds, they will not let you down. And the chances are significantly better that both will be healthy for Worlds, too!

First, I think it's unfortunate to designate 4th in the US as "the trash heap."
Additionally, I've gathered you're a Max fan, but regardless of who you support, inflammatory language like "gasp, shock, horror, this will be difficult to grasp" is unpleasant, and takes away from the (valid!) point you're trying to make about Chen's lack of choreography.

 

[StitchMonkey]

It is worth remembering that Jason's score will factor into the tie breaker.

So in a 2-4 split with Kolyada, Kolyada would have to win by more than 23.08 points to win the tie breaker with Jason.

Voronov and Breznia are even lower, so less likely.

With regard to Bychenko. Even with Jason in 4th and him with two bronzes, Jason wins the tie. With them each a bronze and silver he would have to win by 12.87 points to beat Jason in the tie breaker.

Jason has the highest Silver medal score of the season other than D10 who only had the one event. So he has a cushion.

 

[Li'Kitsu]

Every US man skated at least once, but it's still as unpredictable for me as it was before

Despite the fact that I really like Nathan in general, I'm still firmly in the "please stop overhyping this kid" group. I wish him all the best and hope he manages to stay injury-free, but I'm honestly afraid it won't be the case. Going for 5 quads in the LP again. Ugh. His 4Lz and 4F look solid, and he could easily scratch the 4S and go down to 3 quads in the LP - he would still have a sky-high BV (only behind Boyang and Yuzu I'd guess), but could actually devote time to his levels, choreography and transitions. And his health.

At this point, my guess would be Jason and Adam for the worlds team. Max should have a valid shot too, but I'm not sure the judges would go with him even if he skated well (his marks so far indicate a no for me) - which isn't fair, but if I focus on probability over what I'd want, I'm afraid it's likely. And Nathan... I'm just too scared to predict him and his hip to be anywhere, any time, actually functioning. If he manages to keep himself in one piece, I'd pick him over Adam, but we'll have to wait and see.
Additionally, I guess whoever makes the GPF will also make worlds. Only 2 more weeks for that!

Not everyone wants to go to school full time while also skating full time. It's quite a commitment, especially at the prestigious schools. I assume that might be one reason why Max isn't at Harvard now?

Have any recent Worlds/Olympics medalists also been full-time students? I can't think of any off the top of my head in singles. Maybe the Shibs? But I don't know if they are full or part time.

Yuzuru does. A lot is happening in online courses obviously, since he's in Canada so often, but he's a full time student. Your point stands though, as I can't think of any other example either, and doing both is a nearly impossible job.

 

[andromache]

On the one hand, I prefer watching Adam and Jason and their consistency would be great to have on the World's team. On the other, Max skates clean quad programs. Can Adam introduce another quad? Plus, Nathan is the future without a doubt, and giving him competitive experience at Worlds this year would help him further down the road. Either way, two great and deserving skaters will be left off the World's team and we'll have to live with it.

 

[Mrs. P]

NHK will be quite telling to me regarding Jason's position. This season US men slay count has been high: He's beaten Adam twice, Max and Grant at Lombardia, Ross and Sean Rabbit at US Classic, Timothy Dolensky at Skate America. Nathan is the last person he has yet to face.

They have had few face offs. One is 2015 nationals, when Jason won and Nathan was 8th, but I'm not sure that's a great example give Nathan was injured and 2015 Glacier Falls, when Nathan won handily and Jason was a hot mess (in hindsight maybe the injury was starting to flair up them).

So NHK will be the first time where they will face off and both are healthy. If Jason wins this face off, his stock will go up considerably.

I'll have some numbers in a bit.

 

[Yatagarasu]

Despite the fact that I really like Nathan in general, I'm still firmly in the "please stop overhyping this kid" group. I wish him all the best and hope he manages to stay injury-free, but I'm honestly afraid it won't be the case. Going for 5 quads in the LP again. Ugh. His 4Lz and 4F look solid, and he could easily scratch the 4S and go down to 3 quads in the LP - he would still have a sky-high BV (only behind Boyang and Yuzu I'd guess), but could actually devote time to his levels, choreography and transitions. And his health.

I'm with you on all of this.
In fact, post the FS I was just commenting on this very thing. If they reduced the content to 3 quads in the LP, then they could actually give him a proper program he could accomplish that wouldn't be so empty and would overall, be of higher quality. He has improved his SP, that is visible so it's not like it's impossible for him. I think in a way, they are under-estimating him or not pushing him enough outside of the jumps. He can be good without such a huge technical content, that can also endanger his health, especially long term. And considering he's so young, it's not like the clock is going tick-tock so they have to do it all now, now, now.

For the World's I'd like to see Jason and Adam, purely personal because I love both their FS programs, though I do think Adam's SP needs some tweaking still.

 

[mrrice]

Do we only have 2 spots for our Men? That's a big problem for Max if he doesn't get on the podium in China. Of all the US Men, He's still the one I trust technically to deliver under pressure. I must say that I have been very impressed with Adam's season up to this point. Frankly, I think Denis got a gift when he beat Adam this weekend. I think it's a good problem for the US Men to have a field this deep. Unlike Gracie, Adam seems to be skating with a determination to retain his title. Maybe it's because it's his first Title as a Senior but, he's really making a statement that his win was not a fluke and that HE is the Man to beat in the US.

 

[Tavi...]

On the one hand, I prefer watching Adam and Jason and their consistency would be great to have on the World's team. On the other, Max skates clean quad programs. Can Adam introduce another quad? Plus, Nathan is the future without a doubt, and giving him competitive experience at Worlds this year would help him further down the road. Either way, two great and deserving skaters will be left off the World's team and we'll have to live with it.

The thing is, we know Max is capable of executing beautiful quads that receive great GOE, but so far this season, 4 of the 6 he's attempted haven't been clean - he's either had a fall, a pop, an <, or a wonky landing. That's why I think it's key for him to show he's back on form at COC.

As to Nathan, unless he can deliver now (and he may well be able to), I don't see the logic for giving him a Worlds spot this year simply because he's the future. I think we need to focus on the 2017 team most likely to win 3 World and Olympic spots for 2018, whether or not he's on it.