2016-17 State of Japanese Ladies Skating

[ioanna]

Japanese ladies fighting for a Worlds spot this season: Satoko Miyahara, Wakaba Higuchi, Mao Asada, Rika Hongo, Mai Mihara, Yura Matsuda, Yuka Nagai, Kanako Murakami
Who I think will go: Satoko Miyahara, Wakaba Higuchi, Mai Mihara or Mao Asada (depends on how Mao will feel)

Japanese ladies fighting for an Olympic spot next season: Satoko Miyahara, Wakaba Higuchi, Marin Honda, Mao Asada, Rika Hongo, Kaori Sakamoto, Yuna Shiraiwa, Mai Mihara, Yuka Nagai, Yura Matsuda and who knows who else may come up.
Who I think will go: a lot can happen in 14 months but Satoko Miyahara, Wakaba Higuchi and Marin Honda

 

[Bluediamonds09]

Satoko will probably be sent to worlds this year. As for the other 2 spots, I have no idea. So many who could make it! Has a Japanese lady won a grand prix this year? I'm not getting that Satoko will win nhk. In wondering if she'll even make the final. Obviously, she isn't a judge favorite and may be passed over in favor of Anna or someone else.

 

[mcq]

Japanese ladies fighting for a Worlds spot this season: Satoko Miyahara, Wakaba Higuchi, Mao Asada, Rika Hongo, Mai Mihara, Yura Matsuda, Yuka Nagai, Kanako Murakami
Who I think will go: Satoko Miyahara, Wakaba Higuchi, Mai Mihara or Mao Asada (depends on how Mao will feel)

Unless Mao made a stellar showing (which is of course not impossible at all) at Nats, they probably will send Mihara. She is 3rd and 4th in the GP, not bad for a GP debut and pretty consistent in the SP though made mistakes in the FS. 2 of the 3 ladies need to finish 6th+7th at least. I think JSF would be careful about who to send because they want that 3 Olympic spot, so they may want to bet on the more consistent one. Thankfully there will only be 3 russian at worlds and the US ladies won't be skating at home so chances for Japanese Ladies to place higher is there. There are also Canadian ladies who did pretty well in GP events like Osmond and Daleman, so this year's worlds will be quite interesting.

Just wondering, Kaori Sakamoto is already eligible for senior right? In case she is consistent and make the podium at Senior Nats, is there a possibility for her to be sent? I know she must go to a senior event beforehand to fulfil minimum TES. I meant, Nathan Chen skated in JGP last year and was supposed to be sent to senior worlds due to his top 3 finish at Nats too.

 

[Hevari]

Unless Mao made a stellar showing (which is of course not impossible at all) at Nats, they probably will send Mihara. She is 3rd and 4th in the GP, not bad for a GP debut and pretty consistent in the SP though made mistakes in the FS. 2 of the 3 ladies need to finish 6th+7th at least. I think JSF would be careful about who to send because they want that 3 Olympic spot, so they may want to bet on the more consistent one. Thankfully there will only be 3 russian at worlds and the US ladies won't be skating at home so chances for Japanese Ladies to place higher is there. There are also Canadian ladies who did pretty well in GP events like Osmond and Daleman, so this year's worlds will be quite interesting.

Just wondering, Kaori Sakamoto is already eligible for senior right? In case she is consistent and make the podium at Senior Nats, is there a possibility for her to be sent? I know she must go to a senior event beforehand to fulfil minimum TES. I meant, Nathan Chen skated in JGP last year and was supposed to be sent to senior worlds due to his top 3 finish at Nats too.

You don't need to worry about russians so much. They are not robots, they are humans and make mistakes as other do... And they are not "a million light years away" from other ladies

 

[ioanna]

Just wondering, Kaori Sakamoto is already eligible for senior right? In case she is consistent and make the podium at Senior Nats, is there a possibility for her to be sent? I know she must go to a senior event beforehand to fulfil minimum TES. I meant, Nathan Chen skated in JGP last year and was supposed to be sent to senior worlds due to his top 3 finish at Nats too.

Kaori is 16, old enough to compete in seniors. But even if she makes the podium at Sr Nats I don't think she will be selected for Sr Worlds, there are plenty senior girls to choose from.

 

[Hevari]

Kaori is 16, old enough to compete in seniors. But even if she makes the podium at Sr Nats I don't think she will be selected for Sr Worlds, there are plenty senior girls to choose from.

Why so? She won jr. nats, she had shown good performance during JGP... what's wrong with her? I think - JSF will not do something, that will be contrary to the sports principle.

 

[ioanna]

Updated season best scores:

1. 206.75 Satoko Miyahara (US Classic)
2. 194.48 Wakaba Higuchi (Trophee de France)
3. 194.24 Rika Kihira (JGP Ljubljana)
4. 190.92 Mai Mihara (Cup of China)
5. 187.81 Kaori Sakamoto (JGP Yokohama)
6. 186.16 Mao Asada (Finlandia Trophy)
7. 184.11 Marin Honda (JGP Yokohama)
8. 184.06 Mako Yamashita (JGP Tallinn)
9. 181.75 Rika Hongo (Cup of China)
10. 177.65 Yura Matsuda (Rostelecom Cup)

 

[ioanna]

Why so? She won jr. nats, she had shown good performance during JGP... what's wrong with her? I think - JSF will not do something, that will be contrary to the sports principle.

There's nothing wrong with her, I think she (and the federation) is focused on going to Jr Worlds to keep getting good results for Japan. Shoma Uno was old enough to go to 2015 Sr Worlds but they chose Tatsuki Machida and sent Shoma to Jr Worlds because he had high chances to win (and he did).

Whoever they'll choose, they'll probably choose carefully. Those 3 ladies will have to be consistent and good enough to ensure 3 spots for the Olympics. Right now, Satoko, Wakaba and Mai look like the best choices (and they have the top season best scores).

 

[mcq]

Kaori is 16, old enough to compete in seniors. But even if she makes the podium at Sr Nats I don't think she will be selected for Sr Worlds, there are plenty senior girls to choose from.

I see, thanks! You're right. There is still Rika Hongo, Mai Mihara etc too and maybe a fully back Mao in the mix. I hope Wakaba has a strong showing at NHK. It will help her reputation in the international field + securing her spot for worlds.

You don't need to worry about russians so much. They are not robots, they are humans and make mistakes as other do... And they are not "a million light years away" from other ladies

They did. But they also score high even with mistakes while I think the Japanese ladies are a bit lowballed even when clean. I am just talking about possible worst case scenario here. Of course it would be lovely if the ladies could have high placement

 

[Hevari]

Whoever they'll choose, they'll probably choose carefully. Those 3 ladies will have to be consistent and good enough to ensure 3 spots for the Olympics. Right now, Satoko, Wakaba and Mai look like the best choices (and they have the top season best scores).

Matsuda Yura is quite consistent as well. Only question is if she improves her weaknesses like spins to Nationals...

 

[mikeko666]

Matsuda Yura is quite consistent as well. Only question is if she improves her weaknesses like spins to Nationals...

Yura looks consistent, but tends to underrotate most of the time. A strict tech panel could destroy her jumps.

 

[Hevari]

Yura looks consistent, but tends to underrotate most of the time. A strict tech panel could destroy her jumps.

In Rostelecom Cup she had an underrotated second 3Lo in combo in the SP, 3T in the first combo and 3S in FS. And in the Asian Open 2016 - 2 URs in SP (first 3Lo and 3F) and 6 in FS (3T and 3Lo in first combo, 3F and 2T ih second, 3Lo in third and solo 3Lz). It seems, that Yura now fixing this problem.

By the way - she has 3Lo-3Lo in her SP and 2A-3T-3Lo in FP. For me it's a very serios weapon....

 

[ioanna]

Since the "Thoughts on Satoko Miyahara's skating" thread has been archived, I think this is the only right place in The Edge where I can repost this from her fan fest thread. The video has a helpful animation depicting the difference between most skaters' body position and Satoko's body position.

I found this video on twitter that explains Satoko's rotational speed. It's a bit difficult to understand for me so can anyone translate it correctly?
https://twitter.com/sonicaonotoget2/status/801060367401041920

Only a summary of what the narrator said.

Satoko included in her practice jumps in both directions. Most skaters'rotation is towards the left. She can jump both directions [because originally right was her preferred direction].
Skaters' musculature is sometimes unbalanced because all spins and jumps are towards the left. This is why their rotation tends to be slow. Satoko has a balanced body musculature. This is why her rotations are very fast.

 

[Sai Bon]

Since the "Thoughts on Satoko Miyahara's skating" thread has been archived, I think this is the only right place in The Edge where I can repost this from her fan fest thread. The video has a helpful animation depicting the difference between most skaters' body position and Satoko's body position.

Wow, that's fascinating, ioanna!

 

[Skater Boy]

I keep thinking of Mao. What has happened ofher; I mean she has not just had a few poor skates. She isn't even making the top half of the Grand prix events she is in. What has happened? She isn't that old? But really with issues on the lutz, the salchow and the toe loop. she really needs the triple axel. If she could do two lutzes, two flips or loops she would be fine mind you(FS). But that is a huge if right now. She needs to figure something out as she cant maximizze points with no real triple triple for the sp. Again the 3A coudl make up a lot though.

 

[AsadaFanBoy]

I keep thinking of Mao. What has happened ofher; I mean she has not just had a few poor skates. She isn't even making the top half of the Grand prix events she is in. What has happened? She isn't that old? But really with issues on the lutz, the salchow and the toe loop. she really needs the triple axel. If she could do two lutzes, two flips or loops she would be fine mind you(FS). But that is a huge if right now. She needs to figure something out as she cant maximizze points with no real triple triple for the sp. Again the 3A coudl make up a lot though.

left knee injury

 

[miki88]

Mao has a knee injury that makes it hard for her to jump, especially the 3A which is why she hasn't included it all season thus far. It's serious enough for Sato to consider seeing a doctor in his most recent interview. It has also affected her regular training since they are worried about making the injury worse. Some have also mentioned that the roots of her injury/pains go back to last season. As early as Grand Prix or at least in January, when she pulled out of 4CC. So if that's the case,then it definitely affected her recent performances. I personally feel the best option for her now is to rest until the injury heals. I am worried that her schedule did not give her enough time to heal and so her condition worsened.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I'd like to see her rest up and come back when she's healthy. She is doing harm to her reputation, which will continue to impact her PCS if she cannot execute a higher BV in the jumps. I wish she could regain the form she showed a little over a year ago at the Japan Open.

 

[gotoschool]

Mao began icing her left knee at the Cup of China which was only her second competition after her break and Coach Sato has reported that Mao has had chronic pain since last season. Then on top of the knee injury she has had persistent lower back pain and she had two cases of the flu: one at the NHK and one in the Grand Prix Final which also limited her preparation time for Nationals. Evidently, the injury intensified in January and she took time off from jumping and only returned to 60 percent of full intensity in workouts for a month before Worlds. It has been speculated that Mao has jumper's knee which afflicts the tendon from doing the triple axel like Rika Kihira who was seriously affected in her Junior Nationals performance last weekend.

As early as stage 2 in the development of jumper's knee Web MD indicates that jumping and running should be avoided and the injury also seriously affects other jumps once the injury has progressed as well as affecting endurance since intensive training isn't possible. .

http://www.webmd.com/fitness-exercise/jumpers_knee#3

Taking time off and doing lighter training alleviates the pain, but of course this negatively affects performance level in terms of endurance and jump difficulty since harder jumps can't be attempted consistently. It appears to me that the injury has intensified since last season and even though Mao may get better in the short run from a little rest, it appears that more intensive treatment and recovery like surgery would give her the ability to truly heal and finally return to intensive training which she apparently hasn't been able to do for about a year (with the illnesses factored in). Nobunari Oda evidently had a similar condition and after his surgery and recovery gave what many believe to be his best ever freeskate performance at this years Japan Open. I guess another option is a cortisone shot before a major competition which is great at alleviating pain, which is recommend under level 2 of jumper's knee, but it doesn't last that long, can't be administered that often and I don't know if such treatment is permitted. What I don't understand is why is surgery only recommended for Stage 4 after a complete tear in the tendon when it says that jumping and running should be avoided as early as Stage 2 which is probably about where Mao and perhaps Rika Kihara are at the moment. If an athlete wishes to perform and prolong their career, it seems like preventative surgery would be a very good option. But, this is just me giving my opinion. I don't claim to be an expert.

Whatever the case, I hope both Mao and Rika recover quickly from their injuries resulting from their brave commitment to challenge the daunting triple axel. I admire the great risk they take to display such incredible athleticism and beauty.

 

[chuckm]

It is worrisome that more and more, Satoko Miyahara is being gigged for URs, even on home ice.

She used to get lots of URs in the early days, then gradually they went away, but the URs have begun again and are getting worse.

And it seems as if the ISU now wants stricter callers, so this pattern may continue in the future.

The Japanese skater who has received no URs this season is Mai Mihara. Even under Shin Amano, she got zero UR and edge calls.