I got curious about the suggested European bias for Javi and took a look at the PCS by analysing how judges from different countries have treated their own and the rivals. I took the results of the Grand Prix series because there the judges in each competition are from different continents. I looked at the results for Chan, Chen, Fernández, Hanyu and Uno: each had three competitions and all were in the GP final. The material is small, only 30 scores altogether (but nothing like this could have been be done before), but contain all the PCS discussed in this thread. (Of course, all the results from the GP series should be anlysed to get an idea how each judge scores in general – low, high, medium. And they should maybe be reviewed in comparison with TES/overall result, but did not have time to do these.)
I calculated the individual scores for each judge for both parts of the competition and compared it to the trimmed average (i.e. the official result) – sort of familiar from what e.g. Skating Protcol does. If the judge’s score was over the average, the score was regarded positive and vice versa. Then I counted together plusses and minuses to get an overall positive/negative/divided/cannot decide result for each country.
The composition of the panels first. The skaters were judged by judges from 14-15 different countries. Each skater had a similar set of countries represented in the panels: 4-5 from Asia, 1-2 from the Americas, 5-8 from different parts of Europe and then ISR (which is kind of Europe in many occasions…), AUS and NZL. The judges were usually different persons for each competition.
Chan: JPN, CHN, CAN, USA, ISR, RUS 3 times; CZE twice; KOR, UZB, NZL, POL, ESP, FRA, ITA once; 14 countries (Asia 4, Americas 2, Russia/E Europe 2, W Europe 3; ISR, NZL)
Chen: JPN, USA, RUS 3 times; CAN, ISR, ESP, FRA, ITA twice, CHN, KAZ, KOR, UZB, LAT, SVK, AUT, BEL once; 15 countries (Asia 5, Americas 2, Rus/E Europe 3, W Europe 5; ISR)
Fernández: JPN, USA, RUS, ESP, FRA 3 times; CAN, ISR twice; CHN, KAZ, KOR, UZB, LAT, BEL, ITA, SWE once; 15 countries (Asia 5, Americas 2, Rus/E Europe 2, W Europe 5; ISR)
Hanyu: JPN, CAN, USA, ISR, RUS 3 times; CHN, ITA twice; KOR, UZB, CZE, LAT, SVK, AUT, FRA, ESP once; 15 countries (Asia 4; Americas 2; Rus/E Europe 4; W Europe 4; ISR)
Uno: JPN, CAN, USA, ISR, RUS 3 times; CHN, ESP, FRA twice; KAZ, KOR, AUS, LAT, ITA, SWE once; 14 countries (Asia 4, Americas 2, Rus/E Europe 2; W Europe 4; ISR, AUS)
And how did the skaters get scored? “Positive only” means that the skater received only or mostly positive (above average) scores in each competition; negative is the opposite = below average all the time. Divided means that there were both negative and positive scores. "Cannot decide" means that the country gave equal number of positive and negative judgements.
Chan
Positive only 7: CAN, JPN, CHN, KOR, UZB, ISR, RUS, ITA (highest scores from CAN, CHN, JPN, UZB, RUS)
Negative only 3: CZE, ESP, FRA (lowest scores from CHN, CAN, USA, RUS, CZE, POL)
Divided 3: USA, NZL, POL
Chen
Positive only 3: JPN, LAT, SVK (highest scores from JPN, CHN, KOR, CAN, USA, SVK, AUT, FRA)
Negative only 3: ISR, RUS, BEL (lowest scores from CHN, BEL, FRA, ESP, ITA)
Divided 9: USA, CAN, CHN, KAZ, KOR, UZB, AUT, ESP, FRA
Fernández
Positive only 6: ESP, CHN, KOR, UZB, LAT, RUS (highest scores from ESP, KOR, UZB, USA, ISR, LAT, FRA)
Negative only 3: CAN, BEL, SWE (lowest scores from ESP, JPN, USA, FRA)
Divided 6: JPN, KAZ, USA, ISR, FRA, ITA
Hanyu
Positive only 6: JPN, UZB, ISR, LAT, SVK, AUT (highest scores from JPN, UZB, CAN, RUS, LAT)
Negative only 3: USA, RUS, ESP (lowest scores from CHN, CAN, ISR, ESP, ITA)
Divided 5: KOR, CAN, CZE, FRA, ITA
Cannot decide CHN
Uno
Positive only 5: JPN, KAZ, ISR, LAT, FRA (Highest scores from KAZ, ISR, LAT, FRA)
Negative only 3: CAN, AUS, SWE (lowest scores from KOR, USA, CAN, AUS, ISR, ESP)
Divided 4: KOR, USA, RUS, ITA
Cannot decide CHN, ESP
General observations:
1) All in all, there are relatively few differences in the composition of countries for each skater. Asia and Europe were both particularly strongly present. Maybe a few more Western European countries than Eastern. The ever present ISR was slightly surprising.
2) Apart from Chen, each skater got 5-7 positive results and 3 negative ones. Chen divided the judges most.
3) Most skaters got positive results from 3-4 European countries (ISR among them) and 2-4 Asian countries. Negative or mixed scores come usually from a combination of North American and European judges.
4) The top players were strongly supported by their own judges by scoring their own positively and the rival negatively (or mixed). Hanyu could do no wrong in front of the Japanese judges (twice the highest score; Uno got one negative score from his own). Fernández and Chan could falter in the eyes of their own judges, but the overall support is clearly there (both got once highest, once lowest score from their own). Their own judges did not generally give positive scores to the main rivals. Chen was the only one to not receive unanimous support from his own judges. This support is not visible as huge over- or underscoring, but rather the scores for own/rival skaters are neatly within the positive/negative range apart from a couple of highest/lowest scores.
If the ISU has indeed sent a memo or a message through the grapevine to the European federations to support the lone European, based on the PCS scores from last fall it seems that only a few countries received the message or chose to act accordingly. Only the Russian judges scored Javi unanimously positively. Judges from the Western European countries did not score him particularly highly. The European judges also failed to award low scores to his biggest rivals consistently.
Javi’s high PCS scores come from a combination of Asian and European judges and this applies also to the scores for Hanyu and Uno (including always the judges from their own countries). The Canadian judges liked really only Chan. The US judges failed to support their own, but managed also to dislike everyone else in the process. The national bias seems to apply only to the judges from the skaters own country and the main rivals. All the other judges seem to have had no apparent obligations to support any skater.
I would venture to say that at least in these three competitions the skaters seem to have been scored mostly based on some other principle than geographical/political affiliation...
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