Men's PCS pre 4CC 2017

[Violet Bliss]

The 4CC Men SP thread is currently on its 18th page with 6 more days to go before the competition will even take place, proving its draw as an exciting and highly anticipated event. In order not to hijack the thread but still continue the discussion on the top Men's PCS brought up by some, I have compiled their scores so far this season for comparison.

In order of average LP scores:

1. Fernandez - 93.28 (95.70 COR, 92.28 TDF, 91.84 GPF, 93.30 Euro)
2. Chan - 91.63 (91.12 SC, 93.00 COC, 90.78 GPF)
3. Uno - 91.12 (91.08 SA, 91.36 COR, 90.94 GPF)
4. Hanyu - 91.00 (88.12 SC, 92.52 NHK, 92.36 GPF)
5.Chen - 82.61 (79.36 TDF, 84.06 NHK, 84.42 GPF)
6. Jin - 78.40 (78.00 SA 78.80 COC)

Uno beat Hanyu with his consistency. He and Jin are the most consistent in this list. Chen has the fastest progress.

By season's highest LP scores:

1. Fernandez - 95.70 video
2. Fernandez - 93.30 video
3. Chan - 93.00 video
4. Hanyu - 92.52 video
5. Hanyu - 92.36 video
6. Uno - 91.36 video
7. Chan - 91.12 video
8. Uno - 91.08 video
9. Uno - 90.94 video
10. Chan - 90.12 video
11. 12. 13. Chen - 84.42 video
14. Jin - 78.80 video

All videos with B.ESP commentary.

Honorable mention of a fans' favorite:

Brown - 86.36 (90.02 SA 82.70 NHK) video

Special mention just for Karn who inspired me to post this with her complaint about undeserving Chan's PCS robbing Jin:

Aaron - 76.52 (76.76 COR 76.28 COC) video who is also extremely consistent.

 

[nekun]

Interesting,
been lurking old archives thread for men dicipline and the reaction back than was the same, youngun(Hanyu) won the TES and the veteran (Chan&Dai) won in PCS
and nowaday the younguns increas them TES like there is no tomorrow(Chen&Jin) and we still has the veteran with high PCS(Fernandez&Chan) the different of now and then is just Hanyu, he's now a veteran but he is more in TES specialist type of skater, a veteran with youngun prowers.

I hope friday will come faster

 

[Li'Kitsu]

Since this are only LP scores... here are the SP ones:


46.15 - Javier Fernandez (CoR: 46.08; TdF: 45.89; GPF: 45.31; EC: 47.32)

46.02 - Yuzuru Hanyu (SC: 44.17; NHK: 46.54; GPF: 47.35)

45.55 - Patrick Chan (SC: 45.05; CoC: 44.49; GPF: 47.10)

43.68 - Shoma Uno (SA: 43.28; CoR: 44.31; GPF: 43.44)

42.98 - Jason (SA: 43.43; NHK: 42.53)

40.73 - Nathan (TdF: 41.11; NHK: 40.39; GPF: 40.68)

38.09 - Boyang (SA: 37.04; CoC: 39.15)


Listed as highest single ones:

47.35 - Yuzuru, GPF
47.32 - Javier, EC
47.10 - Patrick, GPF
46.54 - Yuzuru, GPF
46.08 - Javier, CoR
45.89 - Javier, TdF
45.31 - Javier, GPF
45.05 - Patrick, SC
44.49 - Patrick, CoC
44.31 - Shoma, CoR
44.17 - Yuzuru, SC
43.44 - Shoma, GPF
43.43 - Jason, SA
43.28 - Shoma, SA
42.53 - Jason, NHK
41.11 - Nathan, TdF
40.68 - Nathan, GPF
40.39 - Nathan, NHK
39.15 - Boyang, CoC
37.04 - Boyang, SA


PS: it might make more sense to list highest PCS in relation to overall score/TES/BV, at least in relation to where this discussion came from in the 4CC thread.

 

[Tolstoj]

Poor Jin, his PCS should be on par with Nathan Chen.

 

[HanDomi]

Poor Jin, his PCS should be on par with Nathan Chen.

No. Nathan PCS should be on par with Boyang

 

[Tolstoj]

No. Nathan PCS should be on par with Boyang

I don't think so: Jin's programs this season are good, he has good skating skills and he sells it. (especially the SP)

He deserves higher PCS, and it's crazy that a year and half after they are still that low.

 

[Li'Kitsu]

No. Nathan PCS should be on par with Boyang

Well, at the end, the question if Boyang should get higher or Nathan lower is also related to how you rank the rest... IMO, Yuzu and Patrick are mostly fine where they are. Javi and Shoma though are too high... especially Shoma in the SP. He never skated his SP well all season, and it's such an empty program to begin with. It even undersells his great perfromance qualities IMO.

 

[NoNameFace]

Well, at the end, the question if Boyang should get higher or Nathan lower is also related to how you rank the rest... IMO, Yuzu and Patrick are mostly fine where they are. Javi and Shoma though are too high... especially Shoma in the SP. He never skated his SP well all season, and it's such an empty program to begin with. It even undersells his great perfromance qualities IMO.

so agree on bolded...From his very first outing this season with this SP I was mad that he's got such a 'limp', bland program, I mean - last year's 'Legends' was a bomb and a keeper, it would make a spectacular duo with Tango FS which surpassed my epectations, it was a great promise from the very beginning, but it blossomed into something special. And in all honesty, I don't feel that soft, lyrical pieces are suitable for Shoma at all, he looks the best with dynamic pacing with a bit of dramatic flare for me.

About PCS...I'm far from expert in PCS criteria, but looking at this very season regarding FS, if clean, I'd put Yuzuru on the top, then not far away goes Partick, then not far Shoma. Javier - with all respect to his skating - has not so great FS this season as many would expect looking at last season and Elvis theme chosen and even if he goes clean with it, I would not put him above Yuzuru, Patrick and Shoma (being also clean). This understated, nonchalant elegance, mixed with his performer character did great things with Sinatra last season, but with Elvis I feel it does not work properly, it's too elegant, too cautious. To be honest - Righini's Elvis, with all this attitude, over-the-top expression, moves me way more in terms of performance/interpretation than Javier's, let alone Nic Nadeau's Elvis FS which is hands down the best Elvis this season.

For me, Boyang vs Nathan is kind of 'work in progress' case as both skaters are still developing performance-wise. Right now, I sense more of a 'showman' in Jin, he sure knows how to sell a program this year, but Nathan has also goods to become a great performer, there's a confidence around him I like, that 'attitude' around his performances. I feel like their 'big jumpers' label is throwing a lot people off regarding their presentation/PCS score, as they see only jumps. The big challenge for skaters like Jin and Nathan is to make programs highlighting their skill, but also show their commitment and development performance-wise, to find that balance which will convince people. I think that this season is a kind of 'transition' season for Jin regarding that matter - his programs are more structured, demand more interpretation, engagement, personality, so he has to split his focus more between technical and presentation side, and it is all for his future best. I hope both Jin and Nathan stay healthy, focused and motivated on their performance, artistic progress.

And on a side note - for me, this season Yuzuru, Patrick, Shoma AND Jason have all FS programs working great for them, based on their fortes and best qualities and I really enjoyed their every outing this season - even with mistakes. I know that going clean is important PCS-wise, but all 4 skaters mentioned were able to put a good, engaging, full of personality performance regarding FS this season in my opinion.

 

[Tavi...]

The 4CC Men SP thread is currently on its 18th page with 6 more days to go before the competition will even take place, proving its draw as an exciting and highly anticipated event. In order not to hijack the thread but still continue the discussion on the top Men's PCS brought up by some, I have compiled their scores so far this season for comparison.

In order of average LP scores:

1. Fernandez - 93.28 (95.70 COR, 92.28 TDF, 91.84 GPF, 93.30 Euro)
2. Chan - 91.63 (91.12 SC, 93.00 COC, 90.78 GPF)
3. Uno - 91.12 (91.08 SA, 91.36 COR, 90.94 GPF)
4. Hanyu - 91.00 (88.12 SC, 92.52 NHK, 92.36 GPF)
5.Chen - 82.61 (79.36 TDF, 84.06 NHK, 84.42 GPF)
6. Jin - 78.40 (78.00 SA 78.80 COC)

Uno beat Hanyu with his consistency. He and Jin are the most consistent in this list. Chen has the fastest progress.

By season's highest LP scores:

1. Fernandez - 95.70 video
2. Fernandez - 93.30 video
3. Chan - 93.00 video
4. Hanyu - 92.52 video
5. Hanyu - 92.36 video
6. Uno - 91.36 video
7. Chan - 91.12 video
8. Uno - 91.08 video
9. Uno - 90.94 video
10. Chan - 90.12 video
11. 12. 13. Chen - 84.42 video
14. Jin - 78.80 video

All videos with B.ESP commentary.

Honorable mention of a fans' favorite:

Brown - 86.36 (90.02 SA 82.70 NHK) video

Special mention just for Karn who inspired me to post this with her complaint about undeserving Chan's PCS robbing Jin:

Aaron - 76.52 (76.76 COR 76.28 COC) video who is also extremely consistent.

I'm not really sure what these numbers are intended to show, but I'm a bit uncomfortable with the methodology.

The data isn't really comparing apples to apples because (1) it includes Fernandez, who's not even competing at 4CCs, but doesn't include other skaters like Denis Ten or Kolyada, who will surely compete at Worlds; (2) it doesn't use the same number of data points for everyone, and because of this, averages may be distorted; (3) it excludes scores for senior B comps, in which many of these guys participated, and includes GPF (no Jin) and Euros (Javi only); and (4) it includes Jason's NHK score, which was an aberration - he was skating with an undiagnosed injury, and as far as we know, none of the other guys were (excepting possibly Max, who was still recovering from hernia surgery).

Since Sr B results tend to be lower, excluding them gives a higher average in general. Including more data points for some (e.g., guys in GPF versus Jin) will tend to smooth out averages. And of course, you can also argue that some some GP scores were distorted by home inflation.

I think my point is that (1) the data you select affects your results; and (2) you can't accurately predict PCS rankings at 4CC and Worlds based on YTD results. While we can guess that Javi, Chan, Hanyu and Uno are likely to have the highest PCS, if one of them has a bad day technically (as Hanyu did at Autumn Classic) his PCS may tank. The US guys are probably the biggest wild cards and most likely to deviate from the averages you show; Nathan because he's on a sharp upward trajectory and Jason because he's unlikely to perform anywhere near as poorly as he did at NHK.

 

[Violet Bliss]

Tavi, I know this is not a comprehensive list. I deleted "4CC Men + Fernandez" before the lists because "top Men" had been mentioned and these are generally assumed to be Worlds podium contenders. Having so many contenders for Worlds is exciting and having all but one of them at the 4CC is, I believe, why 4CC is so anticipated. These lists are therefore really based on these skaters rather than by PCS of all Men so far this season. I neglected Ten who had withdrawn from 4CC. However, he hasn't really inspired Worlds contending expectation this season.

I had no thoughts or intention of using this information as a prediction tool for 4CC and Worlds as I did the compilation. It's simply for comparison and a clear picture of how these Men have been actually scored PCS wise.

Your idea of including Senior B results is a good one and I'll work them in later today to yield a probably more representative average. I doubt they would give us a Season Best since any participation by skaters on this list would have been early season.

Brown is mentioned as a courtesy, and his video a treat, to the many fans of his skating skills and performances since he also has a 90+ PCS this season. Aaron's inclusion is a courtesy to his biggest fan and inducer of this thread so his scores can be vigorously defended or protested against any undeserving top Men.

Thanks to Li'Kitsu for the SP data as I had hope someone would contribute. Now I or someone else may work on the total PCS.

 

[nolangoh]

Thank you Violet Bliss and Li'Kitsu for listing the scores, I have not quite paid attention to the men's PCS and I am astonished that Javier actually has the highest average PCS...and Nathan receiving higher than Boyang...Poor Boyang, I really like his SP this season. Javi's SP has lost the spark and magic for me already...

 

[Globetrotter]

I don't think so: Jin's programs this season are good, he has good skating skills and he sells it. (especially the SP)

He deserves higher PCS, and it's crazy that a year and half after they are still that low.

I do like Jin's attempts and he has improved certainly from last season but he doesn't possess Nathan's audience connection. That said, both of them are still WIP where the SS is concerned, so I don't disagree with that component although I will prefer to see the IN score go up a notch for Jin. At the same time, neither Shoma nor Javi deserves SS of 9s! Max is high 7s for Javi and low 8s for Shoma.

 

[Tavi...]

Tavi, I know this is not a comprehensive list. I deleted "4CC Men + Fernandez" before the lists because "top Men" had been mentioned and these are generally assumed to be Worlds podium contenders. Having so many contenders for Worlds is exciting and having all but one of them at the 4CC is, I believe, why 4CC is so anticipated. These lists are therefore really based on these skaters rather than by PCS of all Men so far this season. I neglected Ten who had withdrawn from 4CC. However, he hasn't really inspired Worlds contending expectation this season.

I had no thoughts or intention of using this information as a prediction tool for 4CC and Worlds as I did the compilation. It's simply for comparison and a clear picture of how these Men have been actually scored PCS wise.

Your idea of including Senior B results is a good one and I'll work them in later today to yield a probably more representative average. I doubt they would give us a Season Best since any participation by skaters on this list would have been early season.

Brown is mentioned as a courtesy, and his video a treat, to the many fans of his skating skills and performances since he also has a 90+ PCS this season. Aaron's inclusion is a courtesy to his biggest fan and inducer of this thread so his scores can be vigorously defended or protested against any undeserving top Men.

Thanks to Li'Kitsu for the SP data as I had hope someone would contribute. Now I or someone else may work on the total PCS.

Thanks for clarifying. I'm sure your post will be useful as a reference for people who want to discuss whether the PCS awarded to certain skaters is justified and/or argue that it should be higher or lower.

I do think, though, that the averages are not very meaningful, for the reasons I mentioned in my last post, so you might reconsider those and save yourself some work! In a classroom situation, students take the same tests during the same time period and they're graded by the same teacher, so an average may provide meaningful information. Similarly, exams required for entrance to academic programs (e.g., LSATs in the US) are standardized; if there are variations (e.g., tests administered in different years or at different test locations have different questions), they are weighted for difficulty so that score comparisons are meaningful.

Here there's so much uncontrolled variation (different judges, different competitors, diffent time periods), I'm not sure averages are useful. For example, Javi didn't do a senior B (where skaters may not yet be fully ready for the season and scores generally tend to be lower) but he did do Euros (where scores tend to be higher). So he'll skew higher than Hanyu, Chan, Chen and Uno, all of whom had their lowest PCS at Sr Bs and none of whom competed at Euros. JMO.

 

[liv]

Thanks for the list. It makes it easy to see where the top men are and how they are in relation to their competitors... and will make it very easy to see how their marks change or don't change with their 4CC performances. For me, how Chen is marked is the most interesting thing to watch right now.

 

[Violet Bliss]

Thanks for clarifying. I'm sure your post will be useful as a reference for people who want to discuss whether the PCS awarded to certain skaters is justified and/or argue that it should be higher or lower.

I do think, though, that the averages are not very meaningful, for the reasons I mentioned in my last post, so you might reconsider those and save yourself some work! In a classroom situation, students take the same tests during the same time period and they're graded by the same teacher, so an average may provide meaningful information. Similarly, exams required for entrance to academic programs (e.g., LSATs in the US) are standardized; if there are variations (e.g., tests administered in different years or at different test locations have different questions), they are weighted for difficulty so that score comparisons are meaningful.

Here there's so much uncontrolled variation (different judges, different competitors, diffent time periods), I'm not sure averages are useful. For example, Javi didn't do a senior B (where skaters may not yet be fully ready for the season and scores generally tend to be lower) but he did do Euros (where scores tend to be higher). So he'll skew higher than Hanyu, Chan, Chen and Uno, all of whom had their lowest PCS at Sr Bs and none of whom competed at Euros. JMO.

That's why I did the order list of individual PCS.

There is nothing definitive in these lists based on the very few samples from this season. As I've explained, it's just a quick compilation for a general bigger picture and comparison. People will have different ideas and deductions from it.

 

[Tavi...]

That's why I did the order list of individual PCS.

There is nothing definitive in these lists based on the very few samples from this season. As I've explained, it's just a quick compilation for a general bigger picture and comparison. People will have different ideas and deductions from it.

I agree!

 

[Mrs. P]

I think the PCS numbers for Jason does speak to the long tail approach he and has team has taken for his career. While he absolutely needs the quad jumps to break the next ceiling of his career, he has developed enough unique niches (spins, choreo, transitions, competitive mettle) that has allowed him a lot of opportunities other skaters who have the same level of technical ability do not get. In other words, not everyone can be a quote, no quad skater (or a skate who working on one...), unquote, and win GP/national medals and get to compete at the World championship level. Which is why most opt to up BV.

And given that Jason has always been a step behind technically, this might have been a good move in hindsight to work and excel in other areas while waiting those jumps to catch up. I do think the injuries/competition struggles during the last few years do reflect a bit of pressure to up the BV maybe faster than his body is willing. You kind of saw a version of that during the previous Olympic cycle, when he was trying to get the 3A. But perhaps it would have been even worse if they tried pushing the quads too hard, too soon.

Jason (and Adam to some extent; and also Jorik on the Europe side of things) is probably the long tail (developing niche that draws different skating fans) while the new generation (Nathan/Vincent/Boyang) are on the other end by racking up quads that create a mass-excitement. Yuzu/Patrick/Javi (and Shoma) has managed to balance the mass appeal of quads while developing their own personal long-tails, which is why they they have managed to be on top (though a reasonable mix of PCS/TES scores) during these last few years.

The good news for fans is that it allows for a greater diversity of skaters to be at the World level, which is why I think the Men SP at 4CC has generated a lot of excitement.

 

[bobbob]

I think it is misleading because Javier clearly doesn't have the best skating of the bunch...and personally other skaters to have more mature and refined programs. Anyways, if Javi and Yuzu skated side by side and neither made mistakes, Yuzu and Chan should (and probably would) get much higher PCS.

 

[OS]

To quote myself from 2 years ago... Javier is the new Kostner... or more precisely, today Medvedeva. If he skate clean... his PCS will be sky high, the rest don't matter, especially if half of the judging panels are European. With this WC year in Helsinki, he will be very competitive, more than outside Europe. ISU wanted to bring the gold back to Europe, and they have chosen.

 

[tureis]

And to quote everyone who has said this since the birth of figure skating: there isn't too much point in comparing scores across various competitions. Different panel of judges, different circumstances, different skaters, different performances. They can serve to categorize skaters into a limited number of tiers as seen by the judges in general, but they don't indicate much else (and sometimes not even that).