2016-2017 State of U.S. Men Figure Skating

[TMC]

My first posting was kind of response to posting by Mrs P, where she promotes Brown´s achievements as far as I understand.

She was merely stating a fact.

 

[Jaana]

She was merely stating a fact.

So was I with Chen´s achievements.

 

[TMC]

So was I with Chen´s achievements.

Again, not the point. The point is that you can't just randomly decide that somebody's scores don't matter, or just choose not to "count" them. It doesn't make sense. You wouldn't say "Chen has the world record if you don't count any of Hanyu's scores", right?

 

[Jaana]

Again, not the point. The point is that you can't just randomly decide that somebody's scores don't matter, or just choose not to "count" them. It doesn't make sense. You wouldn't say "Chen has the world record if you don't count any of Hanyu's scores", right?

My last posting about the matter:

There is nothing random in this: Brown has never been in GPF where Chen won a silver medal in his first senior year and never won a gold medal in 4CC like Chen did in his first senior year. I´m not dissing Brown´s achievements, but stating two simple facts....

 

[NoNameFace]

just popping here to admit that I missed so many US men at 4CC, wish they would all be allowed to compete - Adam with his attitude, Sean with his Latin show FS, Max with that fresh Matador-themed SP, Ross with his elegance...I'm just in awe over all this goodness in US men field to appreciate. And there is Joshua returning!!!

 

[Mrs. P]

Actually, it seems to me the highest PCS among all current US men has Chen, if we are not counting Brown´s inflated score from Skate America plus this is an international competition where they both were:

http://www.isuresults.com/results/season1617/fc2017/SEG002.HTM

Anyway, the PCS score seems to rise if a skater gets real international results (the reputation grows) and now after 4CC Chen´s will have an extra boost at Worlds, I´d believe.

I think that Zhou should have been sent to Helsinki (they should have waited for the results from Bavaria), because international experience is very important for a young skater to start competing at seniors. Next year we have the Olympics and there he would need this experience and reputation.

Yes, I fully acknowledge that Nathan received higher PCS than Jason. And OK, you can go ahead and take out the SkAm score too, since you insist that it doesn't count because it's inflated. But even if you take out the 90....you're still left with 88, 85 and 82. All in places that is not the U.S. ( I took out Salt Lake City too, where he got 87.50)

My original point still stands that we're not talking about someone that has a few points PCS advantage over the other person. We have somebody who consistently scores high program component scores.

Up until now Zhou's PCS (and I will grant it's juniors where they tend to be lower) has been around 70. He got 76 at Bavarian Open. So even a Jason who isn't 100 percent, who didn't have quads, still has a nine point advantage. And I don't see that advantage eroding in 5 weeks.

Seems at this point we're just saying the same things over and over again: Some people disagree with who should be on the U.S. Men's team, some thinks an injustice was done to Vincent, and some people think Jason's washed up and never will amount to anything more, so he should be deprived of additional opportunities that should be given to "the future." As I said elsewhere, if it really bothers you, write to USFS selection committee. It might not change their decision but at least your voice would be heard -- riding the wagons on a figure skating board that I doubt USFS reads is only asking for our time to be sucked in a black hole you'll never get back again. And quite frankly, I put way more time into this discussion then I would have liked when it has been far beyond the point of being fun or engaging.

I'm going to gush some more at Boyang Jin's party attire. Definitely way more fun. See ya.

 

[bekalc]

Yes, I fully acknowledge that Nathan received higher PCS than Jason. And OK, you can go ahead and take out the SkAm score too, since you insist that it doesn't count because it's inflated. But even if you take out the 90....you're still left with 88, 85 and 82. All in places that is not the U.S. ( I took out Salt Lake City too, where he got 87.50)

My original point still stands that we're not talking about someone that has a few points PCS advantage over the other person. We have somebody who consistently scores high program component scores. That has been the case since even when he was fresh out of juniors a few seasons ago.

Up until now Zhou's PCS (and I will grant it's juniors where they tend to be lower) has been around 70. He got 76 at Bavarian Open. So even a Jason who isn't 100 percent, who didn't have quads, still has a nine point advantage.

Some people disagree with who should be on the U.S. Men's team, some thinks an injustice was done to Vincent, and some people think Jason's washed up and never will amount to anything more, so he should be deprived of additional opportunities that should be given to "the future." As I said elsewhere, if it really bothers you, write to USFS selection committee. No it might not change their decision but at least your voice would be heard -- riding the wagons on a figure skating board that I doubt USFS reads is only asking for our time to be suck in a black hole you'll never get back again. And quite frankly, I put way more time into this discussion then I would have liked when it hasn't been really fun or engaging.

So I'm going to gush some more at Boyang Jin's party attire. Definitely way more fun. See ya.

People are saying that Jason's issues means that he should not be put ahead of guys who beat him fair and square at Nationals. Once again Vincent. Beat him. By Quite A Bit.

Worlds was an opportunity one can argue Jason did not earn. He is not a GPF finalist. Yes he gets high PCS but his TES is extremely low. He is no sheer bet that Nationals should be ignored. And it's problematic.

Once again yes Jason gets higher PCS scores. And yes over other US skaters but you are also ignoring the fact that PCs tend to go up with more exposure at the international level. They do-Chen proved that. I don't think Zhou will get 88 or even close to Brownn but 76 could become maybe 78-80. If he lands stuff.

And some of those higher Jason PCS came in the context of skating in final groups. I don't think him making the final group is happening this time.

 

[Tavi...]

People are saying that Jason's issues means that he should not be put ahead of guys who beat him fair and square at Nationals. Once again Vincent. Beat him. By Quite A Bit.

Worlds was an opportunity one can argue Jason did not earn. He is not a GPF finalist. Yes he gets high PCS but his TES is extremely low. He is no sheer bet that Nationals should be ignored. And it's problematic.

Once again yes Jason gets higher PCS scores. And yes over other US skaters but you are also ignoring the fact that PCs tend to go up with more exposure at the international level. They do-Chen proved that. I don't think Zhou will get 88 or even close to Brownn but 76 could become maybe 78-80. If he lands stuff.

And some of those higher Jason PCS came in the context of skating in final groups. I don't think him making the final group is happening this time.

1. Jason's TES at 2016 Lombardia Trophy was 88.91; at 2016 Skate America it was 92.61. Both scores were achieved earlier in the season, before he was injured, and are very close to the 5th (Nam) and 6th (Chan) highest TES at 4CC.

2. Scores at 4CC and the GPF are also known to be inflated regularly. In particular, by comparing Nathan's performances at 4CC to the actual criteria for PCS and GOE, I can easily argue that he received inflated TES and PCS for what he put out on the ice. As an example, watch his opening 4Z-3t combo in the FS, compare it to the stated criteria for GOE, and then explain why the judges awarded him +2 and +3s, resulting in an additional 2.43 points in GOE. He should have fulfilled 4-6 bullet points to get that score. I find it difficult to see more than 1 or 2 at best.

3. You have no way of knowing whether Jason will make the last group at Worlds.

4. It doesn't really matter whether Vincent beat Jason "fair and square" at Nationals. Placement at Nats is only one of the criteria used to award World Team spots. It seems like you can't accept the fact that the rules for selection aren't what you think they are or want them to be.

 

[jcoates]

Jason could make the final group, but the deck is severely stacked against him if he can't incorporate a ratified quad into his short program. His PCS can only make up so much of the deficit. At least 8 men competing at Worlds have higher personal best SP scores than him. Six of those can dependably outscore him in that segment (Chen, Hanyu, Fernandez, Chan, Uno, and Jin). Plus Kolyda and Kovtun can also break 90 points when their heads are screwed on straight. Bychenko has a similar SP personal best, thanks to his ability to land clean quad toes. That makes nine obvious competitors just to get into the final group. There are no guarantees, but the landscape is just getting more and more competitive as quads become more ubiquetous among even the middle ranks.

 

[Mrs. P]

Jason could make the final group, but the deck is severely stacked against him if he can't incorporate a ratified quad into his short program. His PCS can only make up so much of the deficit. At least 8 men competing at Worlds have higher personal best SP scores than him. Six of those can dependably outscore him in that segment (Chen, Hanyu, Fernandez, Chan, Uno, and Jin). Plus Kolyda and Kovtun can also break 90 points when their heads are screwed on straight. Bychenko has a similar SP personal best, thanks to his ability to land clean quad toes. That makes nine obvious competitors just to get into the final group. There are no guarantees, but the landscape is just getting more and more competitive as quads become more ubiquetous among even the middle ranks.

Nice to see you posting here jcoates.

No doubt about that. The men's field is very competitive right now. But I also think the men's field is also highly unpredictable, so I wouldn't even try to predict who would end up in the final group anyway.

I think few would dispute your point that the quad is very necessary now. The debate is whether Jason will get it or not. We'll see at Worlds.

 

[Tavi...]

Jason could make the final group, but the deck is severely stacked against him if he can't incorporate a ratified quad into his short program. His PCS can only make up so much of the deficit. At least 8 men competing at Worlds have higher personal best SP scores than him. Six of those can dependably outscore him in that segment (Chen, Hanyu, Fernandez, Chan, Uno, and Jin). Plus Kolyda and Kovtun can also break 90 points when their heads are screwed on straight. Bychenko has a similar SP personal best, thanks to his ability to land clean quad toes. That makes nine obvious competitors just to get into the final group. There are no guarantees, but the landscape is just getting more and more competitive as quads become more ubiquetous among even the middle ranks.

You're right that the field is highly competitive and Jason is at a big disadvantage without a quad. But you know what? No one expected him to make the final group at 2015 Worlds, either, and he did, despite being the recipient of less than generous second group PCS. Yeah it took major meltdowns by Kovtun and both Japanese men, and a poor performance by Josh Farris (whom many expected to place top 5 and possibly to medal). But isn't that the point?

It may not happen again this year. The top men may all skate lights out. Jason himself could falter. But the truth is, how infallible a competitor looks on paper can sometimes be deceptive.

 

[bwayrose7]

Frankly, all I care about for this Worlds is Nathan and Jason getting that third spot back in time for the Olympics. Jason fans are going to probably come at me for saying this, but in a perfect world, my dream team for Pyeongchang is Nathan, Josh, and Adam (assuming the latter two return at full strength). And I think that would be a very interesting, stylistically diverse team.

I adore Jason, and Max too, but, as others have pointed out, Jason's PCS reliability only goes so far, and Max would have been the meltdown of the season if not for Gracie. But ice is slippery, anything can happen, and I'm at least grateful that we have several men again who, at least on paper, are somewhat competitive

 

[Mrs. P]

Frankly, all I care about for this Worlds is Nathan and Jason getting that third spot back in time for the Olympics. Jason fans are going to probably come at me for saying this, but in a perfect world, my dream team for Pyeongchang is Nathan, Josh, and Adam (assuming the latter two return at full strength). And I think that would be a very interesting, stylistically diverse team.

Everyone has their preferences. That is what makes watching U.S. men somewhat heartbreaking. It's probable that one of your favorites will be left out.

I would like to note that 4CC turned out to be a very good competition for Grant Hochstein. He had all new season's bests and while his FS was not perfect, he really worked to hold it together, a vast improvement from what we saw at Skate Canada. Caroline Zhang would be very proud.

Upcoming:
Jordan Moeller and Maxim Naumov (advanced novice - the 2017 U.S. Novice Champ) at Challenge Cup - this weekend
Alexei Krasnozhon, Andrew Torgashev and Vincent Zhou at Jr. Worlds (March 15-19)
Jason Brown and Nathan Chen at Worlds (March 27-April 2)
2 men (Jason and Nathan, likely, but who knows) at World Team Trophy (April 20-23)

 

[karne]

Up until now Zhou's PCS (and I will grant it's juniors where they tend to be lower) has been around 70. He got 76 at Bavarian Open.

Wait. Zhou - with mistakes - got 76?!

*throws hands in the air* I'm done. FGS Max, give up on the programs, put on your best cute face, and go stroke around and do as many hard jumps as you like. Forget this working hard to improve yourself stuff, it's obviously the opposite of what everyone except you wants.

and Max would have been the meltdown of the season if not for Gracie.

What. Max has two bronze medals from Senior Bs, a 4th and 5th on the GP. Not only hardly meltdown material, but significantly better than several other US men including Grant Hochstein. No way am I accepting that.

2 men (Jason and Nathan, likely, but who knows) at World Team Trophy (April 20-23)

I'm still half-holding out a hope that, as the third-highest ranked fit US man, the Matador might yet get another opportunity this season. But remembering how well that went down last time, and considering how much freaking out the Vincent-pushers are doing over Jason's perfectly reasonable selection for Worlds, I would fear that thread.

As for the Olympics team, you all have known it: Max, Jason, Joshua. Perfect.

 

[Skater Boy]

1. Jason's TES at 2016 Lombardia Trophy was 88.91; at 2016 Skate America it was 92.61. Both scores were achieved earlier in the season, before he was injured, and are very close to the 5th (Nam) and 6th (Chan) highest TES at 4CC.

2. Scores at 4CC and the GPF are also known to be inflated regularly. In particular, by comparing Nathan's performances at 4CC to the actual criteria for PCS and GOE, I can easily argue that he received inflated TES and PCS for what he put out on the ice. As an example, watch his opening 4Z-3t combo in the FS, compare it to the stated criteria for GOE, and then explain why the judges awarded him +2 and +3s, resulting in an additional 2.43 points in GOE. He should have fulfilled 4-6 bullet points to get that score. I find it difficult to see more than 1 or 2 at best.

3. You have no way of knowing whether Jason will make the last group at Worlds.

4. It doesn't really matter whether Vincent beat Jason "fair and square" at Nationals. Placement at Nats is only one of the criteria used to award World Team spots. It seems like you can't accept the fact that the rules for selection aren't what you think they are or want them to be.

oh dear comparing them to a Canadian who is struggling and another who has grown so much and is trying to readjust does not give a lot of confidence.

 

[Skater Boy]

Frankly, all I care about for this Worlds is Nathan and Jason getting that third spot back in time for the Olympics. Jason fans are going to probably come at me for saying this, but in a perfect world, my dream team for Pyeongchang is Nathan, Josh, and Adam (assuming the latter two return at full strength). And I think that would be a very interesting, stylistically diverse team.

I adore Jason, and Max too, but, as others have pointed out, Jason's PCS reliability only goes so far, and Max would have been the meltdown of the season if not for Gracie. But ice is slippery, anything can happen, and I'm at least grateful that we have several men again who, at least on paper, are somewhat competitive

There are a lot of Josh lovers out there. I think Chen is the man to get the US three spots and Brown is along for the ride. But Brown is no longer needed for lack of words. Rippon has great skating style and skills and a quad(s) or at least moreso than Jason. I mean Jason is not consistent enough. HE probably would have been left off the team had Adam been healthy. Still Chen will be first or second so 11th for Brown shouldn't be that hard to earn three spots. He is lucky there are so many inconsistent skaters that Boyang, Han, Chan, Reynolds, Bychenko, both Russians all could be behind Brown. Of course if all those skaters beat him plus 2 to three Japanese men, Javier and Ten as well as Chen of coure well things could get ugly.

 

[Eislauf]

Also I have to point out politicking. I have no doubt Jason/Adam some of those PCS were politicking. There's some automatic PCS points that come from being the number one guy of a major federation. Also the USFSA had a pretty consistent message. The quads aren't the be end and end all.

But guess what know. If they want to win and they want to win OGM next year. USFSA has to argue. It's a sport. And sure Fernandez, Chan, Uno, Hanyu are more pleasing to watch skaters, But look at Chen's quads."

IF I am another federation official. I would say. Okay I concede your point. But shouldn't then the PCS for my skater over here who is attempting quads be closer to Jason Brown's PCS scores. I mean after all if the quads matter, Brown's not doing any"

I don't know how USFSA makes both arguments. And at the end of the day Olympic Gold more important than three men's spots.

This is a fascinating point. The USFSA has been politicking for years about the importance of "artistry", possibly because the US hasn't had any recent mens skaters, until now, who could compete with the world's top skaters on TES. But suddenly, with Nathan, the US has one of the top tech skaters in the world, so the USFSA may have to do a 180 degree shift with their politicking.

 

[narcissa]

Just send Nathan to Worlds and ditch Jason. Probability of 3 spots might be higher

 

[Mrs. P]

Just send Nathan to Worlds and ditch Jason. Probability of 3 spots might be higher

Right out of the French fed playbook! Then they don't send anybody anyway, lol. Less competition!

 

[Tavi...]

oh dear comparing them to a Canadian who is struggling and another who has grown so much and is trying to readjust does not give a lot of confidence.

It doesn't matter if they're struggling. If it weren't them it would be someone else. My point was simply that Jason is quite able to achieve TES of 88-92, which is not low TES. It's only low compared to guys successfully doing 4-5 quads.