2016-2017 State of U.S. Men Figure Skating

[Moxiejan]

The problem with Jason is that he does have an injury, and he really can't train at full strength in the 5.5 weeks leading up to Worlds. He clearly ran out of gas in his FS because the limited training time affected his stamina. That is likely to be the case at Worlds as well, and unlikely that he will be able to include a quad in his FS at Worlds.

I'd have no problem with Jason at 90% of competition readiness. But the Jason at 4CC was only at 80%, and I'm not sure that he can improve that by 10% given the time and limited training.

Then the question becomes: Who is a safer pick for Top 10 at Worlds, Jason or Vincent?

That's the person who should be going to Worlds with Nathan.

 

[mrrice]

Then the question becomes: Who is a safer pick for Top 10 at Worlds, Jason or Vincent?

That's the person who should be going to Worlds with Nathan.

This is a good point. Jason, when healthy, rarely makes costly mistakes and if I knew for sure that he'd be healthy, I would send him without any question. I admit that I don't know much about Vincent but, isn't he already scheduled to attend Junior Worlds? If so, why are we placing him in the conversation?

 

[Jammers]

Vincent landed one rotated quad at the Bavarian Open. If he did that at Worlds with his low PCS he might be looking at something like a 11-12th place finish which puts to much pressure on Nathan to finish in the top 2. Jason is the safer bet.

 

[andromache]

Then the question becomes: Who is a safer pick for Top 10 at Worlds, Jason or Vincent?

That's the person who should be going to Worlds with Nathan.

I think they work out to about the same thing, the primary difference being that Vincent has a higher ceiling than Jason, but also likely has a lower floor. Because Nathan is such a strong contender for a very high placement at Worlds, Vincent's ability to reach that higher ceiling isn't so important.

The women are in a different situation. Ashley is much less likely to place as high as Nathan might at Worlds. Karen and Mariah have higher ceilings than Mirai, and reaching those ceilings is important for high enough placements (assuming Ashley is 4-6 place?) to keep three spots. A middling or even a great skate from Mirai will likely not place high enough to help Ashley keep three spots - middling or great skates from Karen and Mariah (especially Mariah) would place higher than Mirai, even though they're less likely to have those great skates than Mirai, who is slightly more consistent.

Nathan needs someone reliable to get back three spots. In the absence of someone who can reliably place top 10, Ashley needs someone you're going to be taking a big gamble on. Those are just the situations. It's unknown how reliable of a skater Vincent is, and the US men, with Nathan, appear to be in a good enough place where they don't need to gamble on him.

 

[concorde]

Vincent finished over Jason at Senior Nationals. Vincent had not competed internatinally as a Senior (no qualifying scores) so USFS decided Vincent should go to Junior Worlds and be 1st alternate for Senior Worlds. Jason had the qualifying scores so he should go the Senior Worlds.

Correct me if I am wrong here but Vincent has the obtained the minimum required scores to skate at Senior Worlds so both can go to Senior Worlds.

#2 is downgraded to Juniors but an injured #3 is going to Seniors. Granted there is not much difference in the #2 and #3 scores. The question is do you send the trusted one or give the newbie a chance? USFS decided to go with the trusted one.

 

[Tavi...]

Umm. In case anyone is interested, we have been discussing whether Vincent or Jason should be on the World Team since page 70 of this thread thread (last 13 pages of an 83-page thread) and since page 5 in the 4CC thread (last 45 pages of a 50 page thread).

 

[el henry]

Umm. In case anyone is interested, we have been discussing whether Vincent or Jason should be on the World Team since page 70 of this thread thread (last 13 pages of an 83-page thread) and since page 5 in the 4CC thread (last 45 pages of a 50 page thread).

It's like the 4CC Men's SP thread: the gift that keeps on giving

 

[Mrs. P]

Jordan Moeller will skate the SP tomorrow at Challenge Cup.

He is skating 5th in the first warm-up group (out of 12 men). http://kunstrijden.knsb.nl/2016-2017/20170224/SEG003.HTM

Fan fave Jorik will be there as well as Moris K., who is coming off a very successful Europeans. The three are back-to-back in the first group.

I believe there is a live stream for those who want to watch. The men start at 19:15 (it's at The Hague, Netherlands), so 1:15 EST in the US.

 

[ice coverage]

... Karen and Mariah have higher ceilings than Mirai, and reaching those ceilings is important for high enough placements (assuming Ashley is 4-6 place?) to keep three spots. A middling or even a great skate from Mirai will likely not place high enough to help Ashley keep three spots - middling or great skates from Karen and Mariah (especially Mariah) would place higher than Mirai, even though they're less likely to have those great skates than Mirai, who is slightly more consistent. ...

Strongly disagree with your assessment of Mirai, Mariah, and Karen.  (I've listed their scores from this season below.)
I know that we're in the men's thread, but I could not let your post here go unanswered.

Internationally, Mirai has had the highest ceiling.
As for  middling or great skates, I would say that chances are that Karen and Mariah  would place no higher (and very possibly lower) than Mirai.

That said, Mariah and Karen already had been named to the world team.  And as much as I love Mirai, I don't think USFS should renege on previously announced assignments.

MIRAI

194.95 Four Continents
180.33 NHK
151.42 Skate Canada
189.11 Autumn Classic
176.86 Lombardia

194.90  Nats

MARIAH

177.10 Four Continents
167.69 Tallinn Trophy
191.59 Skate America
161.72 Nepela
184.22 US Classic

197.92 Nats

KAREN

166.82 Four Continents
155.63 Golden Spin
178.45 NHK
179.39 Cup of China
162.08 US Classic

214.22 Nats

 

[andromache]

Strongly disagree with your assessment of Mirai, Mariah, and Karen.  (I've listed their scores from this season below.)
I know that we're in the men's thread, but I could not let your post here go unanswered.

Internationally, Mirai has had the highest ceiling.
As for  middling or great skates, I would say that chances are that Karen and Mariah  would place no higher (and very possibly lower) than Mirai.

That said, Mariah and Karen already had been named to the world team.  And as much as I love Mirai, I don't think USFS should renege on previously announced assignments.

MIRAI

194.95 Four Continents
180.33 NHK
151.42 Skate Canada
189.11 Autumn Classic
176.86 Lombardia

194.90  Nats

MARIAH

177.10 Four Continents
167.69 Tallinn Trophy
191.59 Skate America
161.72 Nepela
184.22 US Classic

197.92 Nats

KAREN

166.82 Four Continents
155.63 Golden Spin
178.45 NHK
179.39 Cup of China
162.08 US Classic

214.22 Nats

My assessment of their potential score ceilings is based on their actual skating, the quality of their elements when well-executed and the quality of their presentation components. Karen was basically at her ceiling at Nationals with two almost perfect programs - remove some points for inflation, and she comes out around 205. Mariah hasn't reached her ceiling all season, but based on her score of 191 at Skate America, one might assume she'll hit over 200, if not more, because her choreography/transitions are so darn good, best among all US ladies. Mirai maxed out her LP at 4CCs, and if you account for the botched SP jump, she comes out around 200.

This is all very rough math and based on what-ifs, but again, the US has to gamble. Higher risk, higher reward = Karen - particularly because a good Karen could make an impression at Worlds and set herself up for good things next season, she's still young and new. Mirai = lower risk, lower reward. She skated well at 4CCs, peaked late in the season last year, but her best performances gave her 10th place at last year's Worlds. Mariah = somewhere in between.

I'll admit my speculation does not take into account reputation judging or how the lack of reputation for especially Karen could really hurt her no matter how great she skates (see: NHK LP).

 

[karne]

Why are people talking about the ladies in the men's thread?

A skater has to be given the assignments to gain the experience! USFS has a history of giving assignments to "known" skaters at the expense of newbies. Then people wonder why the newbie is lacking internatinal experience. Its a crazy cycle.

And if Vincent goes to Senior GP next season he will get the experience! But the time for "giving assignments for experience" is the GP, Senior Bs, and 4CC. NOT WORLDS, especially NOT PRE-OLYMPIC WORLDS.

Vincent finished over Jason at Senior Nationals. Vincent had not competed internatinally as a Senior (no qualifying scores) so USFS decided Vincent should go to Junior Worlds and be 1st alternate for Senior Worlds. Jason had the qualifying scores so he should go the Senior Worlds.

Actually, Bavarian was NOT Vincent's Senior debut. He was ACTUALLY assigned to the Tallinn Trophy, where he competed a VERY substandard short program and then withdrew - with an injury!

Umm. In case anyone is interested, we have been discussing whether Vincent or Jason should be on the World Team since page 70 of this thread thread (last 13 pages of an 83-page thread) and since page 5 in the 4CC thread (last 45 pages of a 50 page thread).

It's because the Vincent-pushers have become just like the Chen-crowners - "our kid is the best thing ever, throw all the other US men on the trash heap!"

 

[ice coverage]

Per Jackie Wong's tweeting, Ashley said in yesterday's Instagram chat that Adam will be out of the boot next week.

https://twitter.com/rockerskating/status/834540180996505601​

Hat tip to apgold, who posted extensively in Ashley's thread about Jackie's tweeting re Ashley's chat.

---

... Actually, Bavarian was NOT Vincent's Senior debut. He was ACTUALLY assigned to the Tallinn Trophy, where he competed a VERY substandard short program and then withdrew - with an injury! ...

Vincent was assigned to Golden Spin as his senior debut.
His SP there indeed was substandard.  He withdrew from the FS b/c he aggravated a previous injury ... and I am guessing that during the SP, he already was feeling the effects of the injury and/or aggravation.

As we all know, Jason's performance at NHK also was substandard.
Vincent and he have been in the same boat of battling injuries this season.  So happens that more information has been made public about Jason's stress fracture than about  Vincent's injury.

I am happy to cut Vincent some slack for Golden Spin in light of his injury, just as I am happy to cut Jason some slack for NHK in light of his injury.

Again, I am fine with Jason going to worlds.
I am not a Vincent-pusher (if that refers to pushing for a change to the world team).
But I don't want Vincent to get short shrift here on GS.
And I don't want to throw anyone on the trash heap -- not Jason, not Vincent, and not anyone else.

---

... based on her score of 191 at Skate America, one might assume she'll hit over 200, if not more  ...

Agree to disagree -- on our differing outlooks as a whole.
One might "assume" any number of things, but they will be nothing more than assumptions.

I like Mariah and Karen, and I would be thrilled for them to get good results at worlds ... esp. if the ladies can earn three slots for the Olympics.
But I like Mirai too, and I don't want her to get short shrift on GS either.  (And again, I am fine with her status as first alternate remaining unchanged.)

 

[karne]

Vincent and he have been in the same boat of battling injuries this season.  So happens that more information has been made public about Jason's stress fracture than about  Vincent's injury.

My point was that the Vincent-pushers are only too happy to throw Jason on the trash heap because he's injured and wail about how unfair the USFS is because they didn't give Vincent a chance~! but they DID, they DID give him a chance and he didn't convert it. But we're supposed to either overlook Vincent's injury or it's supposed to somehow make him better than Jason. We're supposed to not point out that Vincent's Bavarian FS was something resembling a trainwreck and that the only reason he finished with a score two points higher than Jason's at 4CC was because of his SP, and not his FS.

And whatever you say, many of the posts in this thread and the other arguing for a team change have very much been the Vincent-pushers and Chen-crowners throwing the other US men on the scrapheap.

 

[concorde]

My issue is with the USFS selection process which tends to favor the artistic types over technicians. But on the international level, technicians tend to have the edge. USFS also tends to favor experience at the cost of newbies.

If you are gonna bypass a higher finisher for an experienced skater, then the track record needs to be there. Jason does have a distinguised track record but that is from when he was not injured. But Jason is currently injured and let us not discount that.

An injured Vincent seems to slightly top an injured Jason. When all points are needed to get the 3rd spot, I want the one with the higher points.

 

[ice coverage]

... Chen-crowners ...

Your passion is in many cases one of the great things about you -- e.g., without your vocal support for Aussie skaters, I would have remained clueless as to who the very enjoyable Brendan is.

But as you passionately support Jason and other U.S. men, I really hope that you at least will put the term Chen-crowner (a term I never liked in the first place) to rest. It really has become meaningless.
Nathan has won the U.S. title. It belongs to him fair and square.
No one should be thrown on the trash heap, and when I am cheering for lots of U.S. men next season, I do not want to be billed as a "Max-crowner" or "Jason-crowner." (Or as a "Josh-pusher" or "Adam-pusher," for that matter.) Etc., etc.

 

[karne]

Fine. I suppose the Chen-crowners got what they wanted anyway: after four years of trashing the only US man who could do multi-quad longs, their man is now being hailed as some kind of hero bringing US men out of the dark ages. A shame that they can't just let everyone get excited about the jumps on their own, it had to involve chucking Max on the trash heap as hard and fast as possible.

Many of the same people that spent four years bashing on Max and proclaiming he shouldn't be on teams/podiums/etc because "it's not all about the quads!" were awful quick to jump to "it's all about the quads!" as soon as Chen and Zhou came along. And both of them get a lot of free passes for stuff that Max has been beaten up for all this time. The double standard is alive and well, but since it's only Max who's getting screwed, who cares, right?

 

[mrrice]

From Karne, Many of the same people that spent four years bashing on Max and proclaiming he shouldn't be on teams/podiums/etc because "it's not all about the quads!" were awful quick to jump to "it's all about the quads!" as soon as Chen and Zhou came along. And both of them get a lot of free passes for stuff that Max has been beaten up for all this time. The double standard is alive and well, but since it's only Max who's getting screwed, who cares, right?

I'd love to cry foul but, this is Completely True!! Max was constantly raked over the coals and called "The Jumping Hockey Player" by several skating fans. I am happy for Nathan and Vincent but, I don't appreciate it when people forget that for the US Men. The "Multi Quad" era began with Timothy Goebel and continued with Max. Several skaters had done 1 quad but that's as far they went. Now, several of our men are capable of doing multi-quad programs. After seeing the new videos of Joshua Farris, I think we'll have another one very soon.

 

[Mrs. P]

Eh, everyone will have their time in the sun -- and in the darkness. That's how fandoms work.

 

[yelyoh]

From Karne, Many of the same people that spent four years bashing on Max and proclaiming he shouldn't be on teams/podiums/etc because "it's not all about the quads!" were awful quick to jump to "it's all about the quads!" as soon as Chen and Zhou came along. And both of them get a lot of free passes for stuff that Max has been beaten up for all this time. The double standard is alive and well, but since it's only Max who's getting screwed, who cares, right?

I'd love to cry foul but, this is Completely True!! Max was constantly raked over the coals and called "The Jumping Hockey Player" by several skating fans. I am happy for Nathan and Vincent but, I don't appreciate it when people forget that for the US Men. The "Multi Quad" era began with Max. Several skaters had done 1 quad but that's as far they went.

Which "multi quad era" are you referring to? Tim Goebel was doing them a decade ago.

 

[Eislauf]

It's because the Vincent-pushers have become just like the Chen-crowners - "our kid is the best thing ever, throw all the other US men on the trash heap!"

Trash heap?The feeling I get on this thread is that there is respect for Jason's beautiful SS and charisma, regardless of whether you want to see him go to Worlds/Olympics or not.

The problem is COP scoring. We can argue day and night about components vs tech but the fact remains that PCS scores among the world's top 10 skaters have converged towards the mean; thus mathematically the most effective way to pump up your score and land on the podium is by landing quads - multiple times and in combination with other triples.

For a variety of reasons, Jason's rate of change and percentage change in TES over the past 3 years has been very small compared to that of his peers, Hanyu in particular, and the new teenage senior skaters. Unless Jason can add multiple quads, he is mathematically not competitive for medal contention at Worlds, 4CC, the GPF and the Olympics. Fact.