Yuzuru Hanyu: 2016-17 Season

[xeyra]

I don't think Yuzu had a more consistent season than this before, considering the difficulty of his programs

Anyway here is the success rate of his quads this season:

(fully rotated with positive GOE):
4Lo 64% (9/14)
4S 48% (10/21)
4T 89% (8/9)

And his axel (19/21) has a success rate of 90% this season.

Now we need to compare to his previous seasons and, if necessary, other men's jump percentage rates too.

 

[Meoima]

But honestly though, do you really think he has had a more consistent season than this? 13/14 would be arguable, but not others. He had simpler layout too at 13/14 so I think had the current Yuzuru done 13/14 layout maybe he would be at least as consistent if not more.
I don't think he was more consistent in 2015/2016. He had 2 very good competition (NHK+GPF) but I don't think I would consider AC, SC or nats decent competition for him. Worlds is arguable, I am leaning to consider that it's pretty decent because of the good SP despite the unraveling in the free.

ETA : Also, his mistake is a foot-down 4S and doubled toe. People made it seem like he landed on his butt or something in the SP lol. A lenient panel would gave him 4S2T and not +Combo (I would give him the +Combo though cause I am mean like that )

It's not wrong to say Yuzuru has improved his consistency in this season. Yes he has his SP to work on but it's not out of this reach once he chooses an easier music for SP. I think I can see 4lz in LP or if not 4lz then 5 quads LP next season.
It's not that Yuzuru is inconsistent this season. It's just judges did not want him due to his mess in 2 consecutive WC. At WTT it still means that judges didn't want him much. But good thing is that, per Averburk's words, scores at WTT will be forgotten tomorrow (lol). So it's ok.
Next season it will be very tough in the GP as I don't think JSF will want him. But once GPF is over they will be forced to accept he is the only one.

 

[Floria]

And his axel (19/21) has a success rate of 90% this season.

Apart from the popped one at WTT FS, which other one did he fail? I don't remember now (in competition, not gala ).

 

[mcq]

Apart from the popped one at WTT FS, which other one did he fail? I don't remember now (in competition, not gala ).

He (kind of) stepout his 3A at GPF I think, it has -GOE because of the <<on half Loop? He landed it but still... negative GOE, won't count it as clean landing

It's not wrong to say Yuzuru has improved his consistency in this season. Yes he has his SP to work on but it's not out of this reach once he chooses an easier music for SP. I think I can see 4lz in LP or if not 4lz then 5 quads LP next season.
It's not that Yuzuru is inconsistent this season. It's just judges did not want him due to his mess in 2 consecutive WC. At WTT it still means that judges didn't want him much. But good thing is that, per Averburk's words, scores at WTT will be forgotten tomorrow (lol). So it's ok.
Next season it will be very tough in the GP as I don't think JSF will want him. But once GPF is over they will be forced to accept he is the only one.

Agreed there
Honestly I still don't know what he wants with LP. I do think if he can't get his consistency in practice for 4Lz to 70-80% by the end of summer, he won't include it. Yuzu said his 4Lo consistency was 50% in the beginning of the season, Brian claimed it was 70 % (you see they both have different standard of success rate here lol) but even then Brian said there were days where it would be in such a bad shape than even having 1 landed is really good. I think he probably does not want this kind of extra mental burden for oly season, he still has SP mental burden (I hope he will keep the layout or not change it much) + 4Lo and 4S3T too, so if he is not confident for it in practice, it will be very unlikely to see it in competition.

Rather than GP, I am more interested in how he is going to adjust his peaking time this season. being off-ice for 2 months and only start training in july/august + upgrading his layout immensely helped him to peak later, I think. Not sure it will work the same for olympic season with early start in training, ice shows, etc. I wonder how his approach would be this season.

 

[Meoima]

Apart from the popped one at WTT FS, which other one did he fail? I don't remember now (in competition, not gala ).

They only counted the ones with positive GOE. But if we count no fall no pop then Yuzuru only popped his 3A once at WTT.

 

[xeyra]

Apart from the popped one at WTT FS, which other one did he fail? I don't remember now (in competition, not gala ).

He had a shaky landing on his 3A-1lo-2S at GPF, which means the 1lo got a < call of all things. I think it got negative GOE.

 

[Floria]

He (kind of) stepout his 3A at GPF I think, it has -GOE because of the <<on half Loop? He landed it but still... negative GOE, won't count it as clean landing



Agreed there [emoji3]
Honestly I still don't know what he wants with LP. I do think if he can't get his consistency in practice for 4Lz to 70-80% by the end of summer, he won't include it. Yuzu said his 4Lo consistency was 50% in the beginning of the season, Brian claimed it was 70 % (you see they both have different standard of success rate here lol) but even then Brian said there were days where it would be in such a bad shape than even having 1 landed is really good. I think he probably does not want this kind of extra mental burden for oly season, he still has SP mental burden (I hope he will keep the layout or not change it much) + 4Lo and 4S3T too, so if he is not confident for it in practice, it will be very unlikely to see it in competition.

Rather than GP, I am more interested in how he is going to adjust his peaking time this season. being off-ice for 2 months and only start training in july/august + upgrading his layout immensely helped him to peak later, I think. Not sure it will work the same for olympic season with early start in training, ice shows, etc. I wonder how his approach would be this season.

They only counted the ones with positive GOE. But if we count no fall no pop then Yuzuru only popped his 3A once at WTT.

He had a shaky landing on his 3A-1lo-2S at GPF, which means the 1lo got a < call of all things. I think it got negative GOE.

Thank you! Yes, the GPF one.

 

[Floria]

It's not wrong to say Yuzuru has improved his consistency in this season. Yes he has his SP to work on but it's not out of this reach once he chooses an easier music for SP. I think I can see 4lz in LP or if not 4lz then 5 quads LP next season.
It's not that Yuzuru is inconsistent this season. It's just judges did not want him due to his mess in 2 consecutive WC. At WTT it still means that judges didn't want him much. But good thing is that, per Averburk's words, scores at WTT will be forgotten tomorrow (lol). So it's ok.
Next season it will be very tough in the GP as I don't think JSF will want him. But once GPF is over they will be forced to accept he is the only one.

But why JSF doesn't want him? Because of the R-word? They want to promote a younger skater who surely will stay for another olympic cycle? Or there is something else? I am relatively new to this forum and still ignorant about many things.

 

[mcq]

But why JSF doesn't want him? Because of the R-word? They want to promote a younger skater who surely will stay for another olympic cycle? Or there is something else? I am relatively new to this forum and still ignorant about many things.

I am going to be diplomatic and politically correct here
It's not that JSF doesn't want him, but realistically speaking, it is not healthy to put all your eggs in one basket as a Federation. It is what happened with USFSA during Kwan and Russia with Plushy (I'd argue Canada with Chiddy too). You end up with a watered down field few olympics quad after, it is better to have healthy competition nationally. I don't think JSF would abandon him or push him down, they would still support him, but of course it is just rational they would want to prepare and push other skaters too just in case Yuzuru can't compete anymore due to many different reasons. They have learned their lesson with Mao and then Satoko, I don't think they would do the same with the men.

 

[Meoima]

I am going to be diplomatic and politically correct here
It's not that JSF doesn't want him, but realistically speaking, it is not healthy to put all your eggs in one basket as a Federation. It is what happened with USFSA during Kwan and Russia with Plushy (I'd argue Canada with Chiddy too). You end up with a watered down field few olympics quad after, it is better to have healthy competition nationally. I don't think JSF would abandon him or push him down, they would still support him, but of course it is just rational they would want to prepare and push other skaters too just in case Yuzuru can't compete anymore due to many different reasons. They have learned their lesson with Mao and then Satoko, I don't think they would do the same with the men.

One more thing, Yuzuru is already on the top. He can stand on his own and they don't have to push him at all. Yuzuru can just walk out when everyone counted him out (like WC 2017), skated first, being underscored and got a World record because he is that good. Judges might be tired of you and want you to retire asap. It natural they're harping on the youngers. But Yuzuru still has enough high BV an pure quality they can't push him down. This win at WC 2017 is a punch at the judges, ISU and JSF that Yuzuru is the king and they dare not think otherwise even though they really want to move on.

I am not playing political correctness here, I say frankly Boyang Jin has been robbed blatantly many times because of Shoma Uno and Patrick Chan because JSF keep supporting Shoma Uno, Skate Canada keeps supporting Patrick Chan (less than V/M now) while Chinese fed only care for pairs.

Another thing, JSF is still weaker than the big three (Russian fed, Skate Canada and USFA). Had JSF been as strong as USFA or Skate Canada, Yuzuru could have won Skate Canada 2016 and 4CC 2017 already. Not that I mind them anymore.

I think JSF didn't support their ladies enough at WC, Wakaba was robbed in the SP, but yeah she's not good in the Lp so... I love Zhenia, but had she been NOT Russian, she wouldn't have broken world records many times. She deserves all the titles she has won though.

 

[Floria]

I am going to be diplomatic and politically correct here [emoji14]
It's not that JSF doesn't want him, but realistically speaking, it is not healthy to put all your eggs in one basket as a Federation. It is what happened with USFSA during Kwan and Russia with Plushy (I'd argue Canada with Chiddy too). You end up with a watered down field few olympics quad after, it is better to have healthy competition nationally. I don't think JSF would abandon him or push him down, they would still support him, but of course it is just rational they would want to prepare and push other skaters too just in case Yuzuru can't compete anymore due to many different reasons. They have learned their lesson with Mao and then Satoko, I don't think they would do the same with the men.

Thank you! I understand quite well the logic behind not putting all the eggs in the same basket. What worries me is that skater's national ranking can affect the judge's perception of who is the no.1. IMO it is what happens with ice dance.

 

[teeannroo]

I can't read simplied Chinese very well, but did that second photo caption say "suddenly a hot guy appears?" could be hot guy or cute guy. I guess she was taking a pic with Shoma and Yuzu, being extra, snuck in to photobomb them.

Close or actually says 'beautiful girl' not 'hot guy'

ETA: sorry didn't see it had already been replied to

 

[Meoima]

Thank you! I understand quite well the logic behind not putting all the eggs in the same basket. What worries me is that skater's national ranking can affect the judge's perception of who is the no.1. IMO it is what happens with ice dance.

That's why we saw what happened at the GOE part at WC and WTT. Yuzuru didn't get any +3 while the ones judges want got some +3. But because he did better than them, judges could not deny him.

I think all people who understands judging know that very well. That's why in this video the guy said: "I defy you to not make that a World record!"
https://youtu.be/qbd40SC4az4

Why did he say that? Because he understands the constant changing in the game of judging.

 

[mcq]

Thank you! I understand quite well the logic behind not putting all the eggs in the same basket. What worries me is that skater's national ranking can affect the judge's perception of who is the no.1. IMO it is what happens with ice dance.

Not really. Mao has been beaten by Akiko, Miki Ando, Satoko for example. But even after her comeback she is still seen as Japan's no 1 girl. Arakawa lost her national title (she is 3rd) at the time she won both WC and Olympics. It didn't affect her. So did Dai, he lost to Nobu and Kozuka but during that period of time internationally was seen as Japan's no 1 man. Even more so outside Japan. Yagudin never won nationals (LOL) 4x WC, OGM. Has Kaetyln Osmond, Ashley Wagner, Gracie Gold etc been affected by their placement at Nats? Nah. Not really. It might help boost the skater who won no.1 but it would not affect much the skaters who placed below them if they skate well internationally. Mai and Wakaba is a good example of recent events. I think people put too much emphasis on Nats. I doubt that alone is enough to sway judges around.

 

[Floria]

That's why we saw what happened at the GOE part at WC and WTT. Yuzuru didn't get any +3 while the ones judges want got some +3. But because he did better than them, judges could not deny him.

I think all people who understands judging know that very well. That's why in this video the guy said: "I defy you to not make that a World record!"
https://youtu.be/qbd40SC4az4

Why did he say that? Because he understands the constant changing in the game of judging.

I wonder if this change in GOEs happened after Boston or has something to do with it. It seems that in the SP the judges was still generous but never again after that.

 

[Meoima]

Not really. Mao has been beaten by Akiko, Miki Ando, Satoko for example. But even after her comeback she is still seen as Japan's no 1 girl. Arakawa lost her national title (she is 3rd) at the time she won both WC and Olympics. It didn't affect her. So did Dai, he lost to Nobu and Kozuka but during that period of time internationally was seen as Japan's no 1 man. Even more so outside Japan. Yagudin never won nationals (LOL) 4x WC, OGM. Has Kaetyln Osmond, Ashley Wagner, Gracie Gold etc been affected by their placement at Nats? Nah. Not really. It might help boost the skater who won no.1 but it would not affect much the skaters who placed below them if they skate well internationally. Mai and Wakaba is a good example of recent events. I think people put too much emphasis on Nats. I doubt that alone is enough to sway judges around.

Japanese national doesn't mean much to international judges at WC. It means a bit now at 4CC I think. But overall international judges care more about North Americans Championships and Russian championship.
Yagudin got Tarasova who coached Canadians and Americans for years behind his back when he went against Plushenko. By that time Yag was already WC several times so it helped his international reputation too.

 

[beki]

I am not playing political correctness here, I say frankly Boyang Jin has been robbed blatantly many times because of Shoma Uno and Patrick Chan because JSF keep supporting Shoma Uno, Skate Canada keeps supporting Patrick Chan (less than V/M now) while Chinese fed only care for pairs.

Another thing, JSF is still weaker than the big three (Russian fed, Skate Canada and USFA). Had JSF been as strong as USFA or Skate Canada, Yuzuru could have won Skate Canada 2016 and 4CC 2017 already. Not that I mind them anymore.

I think JSF didn't support their ladies enough at WC, Wakaba was robbed in the SP, but yeah she's not good in the Lp so... I love Zhenia, but had she been NOT Russian, she wouldn't have broken world records many times. She deserves all the titles she has won though.

If I understand correctly, within a federation there is competition between disciplines for who will be given the most candies. It's the best medal hope. So the emergence of Nathan Chen means less candy for American ladies (very bad for Ashley Wagner) and ice dancers (may be ok because their skills are high and their coaches will do it). Also, Kaetlyn and Gabby doing well means less attention for Patrick. The federations don't have the power to boost everyone; they have to choose favorites.

 

[Meoima]

I wonder if this change in GOEs happened after Boston or has something to do with it. It seems that in the SP the judges was still generous but never again after that.

After Boston, the whole FS world (except his fans) wrote Yuzuru off. They were jumping on Javi and the younger guys. His new programs get much less appreciation harmed him too. That's why the win at WC 2017 is so important.
And better that he knows his programs are less appreciated, as he will have new LP.

 

[mcq]

Japanese national doesn't mean much to international judges at WC. It means a bit now at 4CC I think. But overall international judges care more about North Americans Championships and Russian championship.
Yagudin got Tarasova who coached Canadians and Americans for years behind his back when he went against Plushenko. By that time Yag was already WC several times so it helped his international reputation too.

Also this. Coaches has their own share of politicking too. People mentioned Borser inflation, eteri inlation etc because let's be real, having a strong coach who knows his/her way around ISU/feds help you out too. Frankly speaking, Yuzuru's fate is in his own hands now. Judges will give it to him if he is clean. Maybe the margin with others will not make you happy but we have seen it at worlds, seen it at 4CC, GPF and again at WTT. They will still give him the edge if he is delivering. If he bombed so hard though he can forget it, they would not hold him up anymore, there are other kids on the block (I can say this applies to Chiddy too)

 

[Meoima]

If I understand correctly, within a federation there is competition between disciplines for who will be given the most candies. It's the best medal hope. So the emergence of Nathan Chen means less candy for American ladies (very bad for Ashley Wagner) and ice dancers (may be ok because their skills are high and their coaches will do it). Also, Kaetlyn and Gabby doing well means less attention for Patrick. The federations don't have the power to boost everyone; they have to choose favorites.

USFA still want Gracie Gold. Objectively speaking, she has the look and star quality to attract views. Unfortunately.... they have no top ladies now unless Gracie comes back and be relatively stable.
And yeah the federations don't have the power to boost everyone. But when Russian federation still ruled the skating world, they dominated men, pairs, ice dance and only lost the ladies to USFA.
Skate Canada at the moment is very powerful as you can see that their ladies and ice dance are getting great scores, men and pairs are not getting low love, just they're not as dominant as before.