But you're forgetting why Ashley performed like that in 2014 - she can't handle pressure when Olympic spots are on the line. She did poorly at worlds '17 with the pressure of earning three spots, and the only reason she has a chance for the third spot now is because of Karen.
A case could be made that Ashley won't be worried about placing 4th or lower at nationals, since USFSA bailed her out with the "body of work" loophole. If Ashley knew there was going to be a bailout in 2014, I doubt she would have done so poorly.
It really depends on if USFSA makes it known early whether they're going to use the loophole again this season. In '14 they didn't start leaking murmurs about using the loophole it until practice started at nationals. One of the favorites was unexpectedly bad in practice and they had to hurriedly put out the damage control.
But I don't think they want to make a habit out of using the loophole, which is why they left the pairs standings alone. So it's hard to say what they'll do this time around. Now that Gracie is pretty much out, I doubt they'll have as many endorsements to protect by keeping the favorites intact as a team. Nor do they want to repeat the bad publicity of '14. Can you imagine if Mirai places 3rd again and gets bumped?