Men OGM Contenders 2018

[Tutto]

As far as stamina goes though, Yuzu's stamina has been better than ever last season, to the point where he has successfully put 3 quads in the second half of his free skate. Miles better than what is was in Sochi. On the other hand, I tend to think that the first Olympic experience is in favor of the youngest ones. They do not completely realize the immense pressure of competing yet because they are so young. They have nothing to lose and therefore go all-out. The veterans, though they have more experience, can also have more nerves.

Fair point, still it remains to be seen how they will cope with the pressure. Both Uno & Chen didn't do well in the their first senior Worlds, I think not all of it was due to boots issue with Chen as he himself admitted in the interview that the pressure got to him in Helsinki. Jin was just ok in Boston but benefited from mistakes of others.

It's the other way round. Men peak much later than women. The young ones are physically disadvantaged because they do not yet have the stamina and strength compared to the veterans, yet they must out-jump the veterans to have any chance to medal at the Olympics. So they are actually more disadvantaged because they have to attempt layouts they have not yet mastered, while veterans can attempt easier layouts they are more comfortable with since they have better reputation than the youngsters. Veterans are only disadvantaged if they are past their prime, not when they are in their prime. The majority of male newbies don't medal in their first Olympcis and their second olympcis performances are usually better than their first. Only very few men medaled in their first olympics, and that's with the help of many men bombing in those competitions.

Fair point again. I do think though that older skaters are at certain disadvantage in that they tend to accumulate more injuries and more 'tear & wear' on their bodies which impact their stamina too

 

[gsyzf]

Fair point, still it remains to be seen how they will cope with the pressure. Both Uno & Chen didn't do well in the their first senior Worlds, I think not all of it was due to boots issue with Chen as he himself admitted in the interview that the pressure got to him in Helsinki. Jin was just ok in Boston but benefited from mistakes of others.



Fair point again. I do think though that older skaters are at certain disadvantage in that they tend to accumulate more injuries and more 'tear & wear' on their bodies which impact their stamina too

I think pressure will only get to someone if they aren't comfortable with their layout. If it's a layout you have totally mastered and can do your sleep, you can still execute the layouts even if you are not in top forms or under pressure. It's when people attempt layouts they haven't mastered and are not fully capable of exeucting, that even slightly adverse condition and pressure will screw up their performances. I believe Uno and Chen didn't medal at their first WC because they already medaled at GPF that season and they entered their first WC with much bigger pressure (because the expectation of them medaling at their first WC is much higher after they medaled at GPF) than Jin who didn't medal at GPF (who didn't face much expectation at his first WC since he didn't medal at GPF).

I think it depends on how old the veterans are. If they are over 25, and past their prime, I think they are certainly disadvantaged because their bodies are in worse shape than when they were in their prime. If the veterans are in early 20s like 21-24, they are in their prime age. Their bodies are physically in top shape.

The newbie skaters are teenagers whose bodies haven't developed full strength yet. Among the top 6 men, only Hanyu is in his prime and the others are either too young or too old.

 

[MaiKatze]

Other factors to consider - the 'quadsters' are younger and have an advantage over the 'veterans' stamina wise. On the other hand Hanyu, Chan & Fernandes have Olympic experience unlike Chen, Uno & Jin which would work in their favour. Also lets not forget about the team event. Thats put Fernandes at a distinctive advantage he only has 2 skates to worry about and not 4 like some others.

Do the japanese skaters participate in the team event in 2018? Do they HAVE to? Idk the state of their pairs at the moment, but as they won't medal, I don't see the need. They could get some Olympic nerves out of the way, that's the only advantage. Both japanese Ladies would have to participate.

It's the other way round. Men peak much later than women. The young ones are physically disadvantaged because they do not yet have the stamina and strength compared to the veterans, yet they must out-jump the veterans to have any chance to medal at the Olympics. So they are actually more disadvantaged because they have to attempt layouts they have not yet mastered, while veterans can attempt easier layouts they are more comfortable with since they have better reputation than the youngsters. Veterans are only disadvantaged if they are past their prime, not when they are in their prime. The majority of male newbies don't medal in their first Olympcis and their second olympcis performances are usually better than their first. Only very few men medaled in their first olympics, and that's with the help of many men bombing in those competitions.

With ladies, it's the opposite. Most girls peak early, usually before puberty. Most female medalists medal in their first Olympics and their second Olympics performances are usually worse than their first. So newbie girls out jump veteran ladies quite often at the Olympics. (So I believe the chance of Zagitova beating Medvedeva at the Olympics is not low since Zagitova is technically superior than Medvedeva and she attempts harder layout than Medvedeva. The only question is whether she will continue to improve and remain consistent and establish herself as a medal favorite going into the Olympics by the time Olympics comes. Since she is young and her body hasn't changed yet, I think the chance of her improving and remaining consistent is quite high in the Olympics season.)

That's what history tells us. But in the past, PCS was much more important, tech scores were similar for most. It's the first Olympic Games in which that many quad jumps are attempted. The peak of the Ladies when they are young is because they jump better pre-puberty than post, are technically stronger. And the Ladies technical arsenal has been stagnant for a while.

Younger Men will have it easier, not because of puberty but because of the quads. Who knows what the young quadsters will look like in 2022. I think we're going to see a shift in the next Olympics, favouring the young with stronger technical content, whose hips and knees haven't been punished for two or three Olympic Cycles, yet. When Yuzuru debuted at 2012 Worlds he jumped a quad and I remember the commentators going "Wow, he has a quad! At this age, what a talent!". Look at Nathan, who debuted this year. I think we cannot take our old empirical value for Men's figure skating as the gospel, since we are in a new era now.

 

[gsyzf]

Do the japanese skaters participate in the team event in 2018? Do they HAVE to? Idk the state of their pairs at the moment, but as they won't medal, I don't see the need. They could get some Olympic nerves out of the way, that's the only advantage. Both japanese Ladies would have to participate.



That's what history tells us. But in the past, PCS was much more important, tech scores were similar for most. It's the first Olympic Games in which that many quad jumps are attempted. The peak of the Ladies when they are young is because they jump better pre-puberty than post, are technically stronger. And the Ladies technical arsenal has been stagnant for a while.

Younger Men will have it easier, not because of puberty but because of the quads. Who knows what the young quadsters will look like in 2022. I think we're going to see a shift in the next Olympics, favouring the young with stronger technical content, whose hips and knees haven't been punished for two or three Olympic Cycles, yet. When Yuzuru debuted at 2012 Worlds he jumped a quad and I remember the commentators going "Wow, he has a quad! At this age, what a talent!". Look at Nathan, who debuted this year. I think we cannot take our old empirical value for Men's figure skating as the gospel, since we are in a new era now.

You need strength and stamina to jump quads. It's not like youngsters can just jump quads with no power and strength. The youngsters obviously do struggle with stamina when attempting multiple quads when you watch their performances. They look very tired. It's not easy for them to jump many quads because they are young. It's easier for them to learn new quads when they are young and they are more willing to take the risk than the veterans, but it doesn't require them less stamina to execute those quads than to the veterans.

 

[MaiKatze]

You need strength and stamina to jump quads. It's not like youngsters can just jump quads with no power and strength. The youngsters obviously do struggle with stamina when attempting multiple quads when you watch their performances. They look very tired. It's not easy for them to jump many quads because they are young. It's easier for them to learn new quads when they are young and they are more willing to take the risk than the veterans, but it doesn't require them less stamina to execute those quads than to the veterans.

True, but that doesn't change the fact that we cannot take past Olympic Cycles as a guideline, because the game has changed. And this change began before Sochi when Yuzuru beat Chan with his higher technical content. If Shoma, Nathan and Boyang still jump that many quads in 2022 they would surely win against the youngsters that arrive because by then they reached a veteran status and higher PCS. But will they be able to? Yuzuru became Olympic Champ at 19 in his debut Olympics without being World Champion before, but with less difficulty than that is needed now. It could happen again this time. For sure it will be interesting, yes, the whole Olympic cycle to 2022 will be.

 

[Tutto]

Do the japanese skaters participate in the team event in 2018? Do they HAVE to? Idk the state of their pairs at the moment, but as they won't medal, I don't see the need. They could get some Olympic nerves out of the way, that's the only advantage. Both japanese Ladies would have to participate.
.

I am not strong on technicalities but I think so. Japan was in 5th place in Sochi and they did advance to LP

 

[gsyzf]

True, but that doesn't change the fact that we cannot take past Olympic Cycles as a guideline, because the game has changed. And this change began before Sochi when Yuzuru beat Chan with his higher technical content. If Shoma, Nathan and Boyang still jump that many quads in 2022 they would surely win against the youngsters that arrive because by then they reached a veteran status and higher PCS. But will they be able to? Yuzuru became Olympic Champ at 19 in his debut Olympics without being World Champion before, but with less difficulty than that is needed now. It could happen again this time. For sure it will be interesting, yes, the whole Olympic cycle to 2022 will be.

Hanyu won the Olympics with a bad prformance because the veterans bombed. So unless all the veterans bomb again in PeongChang, it's unlikely newbies will win. None of the newbie skaters skated clean at their first Olympics, except Kulik, and Kulik only did one quad at the Olympics. Now the tech demand is even higher, it's even more unlikely newbies will skate clean sp and lp with a total of 6-7 quads at their first olympics.

I think the youngsters can still jump many quads by 2022. Fernandez have been doing 3 quad layout for past 5-6 years and he is still doing them ( a total of 5 quads) at the age of 26. I think the number of quads attempted will decline a bit after 2018 when the veterans retire and rules change. The youngsters wouldn't need that many quads to compete against themselves when the veterans are gone.

 

[xeyra]

I think the youngsters can still jump many quads by 2022. Fernandez have been doing 3 quad layout for past 5-6 years and he is still doing them ( a total of 5 quads) at the age of 26. I think the number of quads attempted will decline a bit after 2018 when the veterans retire and rules change. The youngsters wouldn't need that many quads to compete against themselves when the veterans are gone.

But we will already be having a snowball effect. It has started and skaters won't decide to de-escalate on their quads just because the current veterans retired. They will then try to out jump each other, especially if the post-Olympic season does cut down on one jumping pass.

 

[gsyzf]

But we will already be having a snowball effect. It has started and skaters won't decide to de-escalate on their quads just because the current veterans retired. They will then try to out jump each other, especially if the post-Olympic season does cut down on one jumping pass.

It depends on the rules and the depth of field. Skaters won't attempt as many quads if the rules don't encourage them to (Otherwise we wouldn't see the decline in the number of quads from 2006 to 2010 due to the introduction of COP.) Youngsters only attempt many quads today because their PCS is much lower than the veterans and quads give them the most points. After the veterans left, there won't be anyone who had significant PCS advantage over them, and they will just get more points from GOE and PCS, and the rules post 2018 will shift more towards GOE and PCS too. They may still attempt 5-6 quads after 2018, but they don't just do quad race like today in order to out jump the veterans.

 

[Tutto]

It depends on the rules and the depth of field. Skaters won't attempt as many quads if the rules don't encourage them to (Otherwise we wouldn't see the decline in the number of quads from 2006 to 2010 due to the introduction of COP.) Youngsters only attempt many quads today because their PCS is much lower than the veterans and quads give them the most points. After the veterans left, there won't be anyone who had significant PCS advantage over them, and they will just get more points from GOE and PCS, and the rules post 2018 will shift more towards GOE and PCS too. They may still attempt 5-6 quads after 2018, but they don't just do quad race like today in order to out jump the veterans.

But today's youngsters will turn into the veterans by next Olympics and a new generation of youngsters will emerge who again will likely push the veterans. No my guess is that only the avalanche of injuries can stop the quad madness

 

[gsyzf]

But today's youngsters will turn into the veterans by next Olympics and a new generation of youngsters will emerge who again will likely push the veterans. No my guess is that only the avalanche of injuries can stop the quad madness

It depends on if there are any future youngsters who can consistently out jump the future veterans (I.e. The youngsters today). So far, I don't see anyone in junior that has that kind of potential. The current youngsters are already doing 4lz. Unless the future youngsters can do 4a or quints consistently, I don't see how they can push the future veterans.

 

[4everchan]

It depends on if there are any future youngsters who can consistently out jump the future veterans (I.e. The youngsters today). So far, I don't see anyone in junior that has that kind of potential. The current youngsters are already doing 4lz. Unless the future youngsters can do 4a or quints consistently, I don't see how they can push the future veterans.

look into canadian juniors and novices ... you will find some surprises... conrad orzel, who chose to remain junior this year, has landed in competition the 4t very often, and in practice, 4lutz, 4S and 4Lo...

Nic Nadeau, barely 19, is also working on 3 quads.... Nam as well (and of course, nobody thinks about him but he is still very young)

Stephen Gogolev is only 12 and lands the 4S and 3A in competition, and there is a video of him doing a 4lutz (rough landing)...

I am sure that this is not only limited to Canada : a lot of the 10-11 y o kids who are skating right now understand they will need more than a 4t or a 4s to be competitive when they reach junior and senior age....

 

[gsyzf]

look into canadian juniors and novices ... you will find some surprises... conrad orzel, who chose to remain junior this year, has landed in competition the 4t very often, and in practice, 4lutz, 4S and 4Lo...

Nic Nadeau, barely 19, is also working on 3 quads.... Nam as well (and of course, nobody thinks about him but he is still very young)

Stephen Gogolev is only 12 and lands the 4S and 3A in competition, and there is a video of him doing a 4lutz (rough landing)...

I am sure that this is not only limited to Canada : a lot of the 10-11 y o kids who are skating right now understand they will need more than a 4t or a 4s to be competitive when they reach junior and senior age....

Many juniors are learning quads early today. But they are practicing quads the current quadsters are already doing today, i.e. 4Lo, 4F and 4Lz. They are not doing more and harder quads than 4F and 4Lz. If juniors are doing the same quads as senior veterans, they don't put much pressure on the veterans. I don't think veterans feel much pressure when the newbies are doing the same jumps as them since they have GOE and PCS advantage. It's when juniors doing harder and more quads with better consistency than the veterans (and outscores veterans, or scores very close to the veterans) that poses significant threat to the veterans. Jumps that are harder than 4F and 4Lz are 4A and quints. I don't see any junior boys (or anybody) with the potential to jump 4A and quints consistently.

 

[sheetz]

I think pretty soon we'll probably start to see a leveling off of the technical difficulty for the men similar to what we've seen with the women over the past 2 decades. Instead of 4A or quints we'll see more backloading, tanos/rippons, and maybe 4-4 combos.

Conversely it looks like we may be seeing the start of the quad/3A wars on the ladies side.

 

[bevybean]

It's the other way round. Men peak much later than women. The young ones are physically disadvantaged because they do not yet have the stamina and strength compared to the veterans, yet they must out-jump the veterans to have any chance to medal at the Olympics. So they are actually more disadvantaged because they have to attempt layouts they have not yet mastered, while veterans can attempt easier layouts they are more comfortable with since they have better reputation than the youngsters. Veterans are only disadvantaged if they are past their prime, not when they are in their prime. The majority of male newbies don't medal in their first Olympcis and their second olympcis performances are usually better than their first. Only very few men medaled in their first olympics, and that's with the help of many men bombing in those competitions.)

Good point, though I think if you are going to talk about stamina, you really need to look at the individuals. What you have stated in the general trend, but I've met many men who buck this trend. Though not in figure skating, I know my husband has always had more strength, stamina and energy than almost anyone he's worked with from his teens through his late 30's working a very physically demanding job. I think some people are just blessed that way. So, what kind of stamina does Hanyu have vs Chen or Jin? Or even vs Chan and Javi? That's the real thing that matters. I would think that certain skaters are successful partly due to having better than average stamina to begin with.

 

[4everchan]

Many juniors are learning quads early today. But they are practicing quads the current quadsters are already doing today, i.e. 4Lo, 4F and 4Lz. They are not doing more and harder quads than 4F and 4Lz. If juniors are doing the same quads as senior veterans, they don't put much pressure on the veterans. I don't think veterans feel much pressure when the newbies are doing the same jumps as them since they have GOE and PCS advantage. It's when juniors doing harder and more quads with better consistency than the veterans (and outscores veterans, or scores very close to the veterans) that poses significant threat to the veterans. Jumps that are harder than 4F and 4Lz are 4A and quints. I don't see any junior boys (or anybody) with the potential to jump 4A and quints consistently.

i disagree : i do not think that it doesn't put any pressure on the veterans... if 10 skaters are able to land the same jumps instead of just let's say 3, then it puts a lot more pressure on EVERYONE. The kid who skates clean will beat a veteran who pops or falls.

Also, i don't know in which planet you live but on mine, 4A is like close to utopia and quints? I don't expect to see them from my living... so i don't think we will need quints to beat the veterans.... the kids may learn harder combos 3a-4t etc... which will give them an edge but quints? gosh... we took like 25-30 years from the first quad to this recent explosion...

 

[gsyzf]

i disagree : i do not think that it doesn't put any pressure on the veterans... if 10 skaters are able to land the same jumps instead of just let's say 3, then it puts a lot more pressure on EVERYONE. The kid who skates clean will beat a veteran who pops or falls.

But a kid in his teen is less likely to skate clean than a veteran who is in his prime when both attempt the same layout, everything else equal. The veteran will have PCS advantage. When both give similar performances, the veteran will still beat the teen. So a teenage boy still needs higher BV to beat the veteran when the veteran doesn't bomb terribly. A pre-puberty girl is more likely to skate clean than veteran girls, so a pre-puberty girl is more likely to beat the veteran girls.

 

[gsyzf]

I think pretty soon we'll probably start to see a leveling off of the technical difficulty for the men similar to what we've seen with the women over the past 2 decades. Instead of 4A or quints we'll see more backloading, tanos/rippons, and maybe 4-4 combos.

Conversely it looks like we may be seeing the start of the quad/3A wars on the ladies side.

I think more men will attempt multiple types of quads after 2018. Instead of 6 men, maybe 20+ men in the whole field will attempt 2 quad SP and 3-4 quad LP (with 4F and/or 4Lz) after 2018. The planned BV will be quite close. So whoever skates consistently clean with high GOE and PCS will win, similar to ladies today.

ETA: It depends on how the ISU will reward GOE. I don't think tano/rippons will become overused if they change the rules after 2018. The ISU may choose to only give credit to tano/rippons for 1-2 jumps rather than on every jump. If the ISU chooses to reward more points for difficult combos, we will see more difficult combo attempts.

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I'm not sure if we will see 3A or quads becoming a norm in ladies. Unless the rules give significantly more rewards for failed 3A and quads like they did to men, I don't think 3A or quads will become a norm in ladies.

 

[gsyzf]

Good point, though I think if you are going to talk about stamina, you really need to look at the individuals. What you have stated in the general trend, but I've met many men who buck this trend. Though not in figure skating, I know my husband has always had more strength, stamina and energy than almost anyone he's worked with from his teens through his late 30's working a very physically demanding job. I think some people are just blessed that way. So, what kind of stamina does Hanyu have vs Chen or Jin? Or even vs Chan and Javi? That's the real thing that matters. I would think that certain skaters are successful partly due to having better than average stamina to begin with.

Based on past worlds and Olympic medalists' performances, most male figure skaters seem to peak in early 20s. There are some exceptions. But most male skaters seem to be technically at their best in their early 20s. It could be due to a combination of stamina and training.

 

[yume]

Also, i don't know in which planet you live but on mine, 4A is like close to utopia and quints? I don't expect to see them from my living... so i don't think we will need quints to beat the veterans.... the kids may learn harder combos 3a-4t etc... which will give them an edge but quints? gosh... we took like 25-30 years from the first quad to this recent explosion...

I think that harder combos like 3A-4T / 4-4 / 4-1lo-4 are more realistic than quints. As we already saw them attempted successfully or nearly successfully in some practices. 4A is not so an utopia for me. I think that we will see a 4A in the 2018-2022 cycle.