Men OGM Contenders 2018

[OnlyUno]

Based on past worlds and Olympic medalists' performances, most male figure skaters seem to peak in early 20s. There are some exceptions. But most male skaters seem to be technically at their best in their early 20s. It could be due to a combination of stamina and training.

Up til now, I’d assumed Hanyu’s lightness would contribute to his longevity as a skater. As I’d spent more time around dancers’ bodies in my life, his physique is unusual to me. For example I’d seen recent clips going about of his shirt flying up during jumps in the ice shows, and as I’m very used to dancers’ bodies, it struck me how small he was in that area of his body, which is why the shirt flies up more than with the other performers, there’s just nothing there under the shirt. (the shirt’s really loose on him to begin with) It’s not leanness per se, dancers are very lean, but Hanyu’s small in thickness of his skeletal structure and very much longer than most from his ribs to his hipbones… so I thought it helped to rotate without using up his stamina too much. ergo longevity. (the height of the skates balances out his physique, but it is an unusual one, though less unusual amongst asians perhaps) However considering the frailty of a smaller frame, (and I’m not saying he does not have the condition of a champion athlete in his prime) as super conditioned and trained as he is, I’m not sure whether that lessens his longevity despite the efficiency of the light frame. Sorry just observances and questions i have about the skating physique as fs is comparatively new for me (versus dance)

 

[sarama]

You would think the Chen-crowners would have learned this lesson after Helsinki, before which they were already handing him the title...and after which it was boots, boots, boots.

I expected Nathan to crumble under the pressure at Worlds, and he didn't. He wasn't at his best, he made mistakes, but he held his own in a tough field. Rotating all those quads, and solid nerves could get him really far next season. His programs are indeed empty, but it won't matter much in terms of points.

 

[4everchan]

But a kid in his teen is less likely to skate clean than a veteran who is in his prime when both attempt the same layout, everything else equal. The veteran will have PCS advantage. When both give similar performances, the veteran will still beat the teen. So a teenage boy still needs higher BV to beat the veteran when the veteran doesn't bomb terribly. A pre-puberty girl is more likely to skate clean than veteran girls, so a pre-puberty girl is more likely to beat the veteran girls.

look... you can say whatever you want but what happened in 2010 for instance where plushy the veteran wasn't clean... and didn't get higher PCS than Lysacek who didn't even attempt a quad...

the point is that what matters the night of the games will decide of the results.. and the difference can be small or big... anyone can mess up or shine whether or not probabilities say that someone should win it...as a Chan fan, and back then a Browning fan, i am used to not think too much about the what ifs and the quints

 

[gsyzf]

look... you can say whatever you want but what happened in 2010 for instance where plushy the veteran wasn't clean... and didn't get higher PCS than Lysacek who didn't even attempt a quad...

the point is that what matters the night of the games will decide of the results.. and the difference can be small or big... anyone can mess up or shine whether or not probabilities say that someone should win it...as a Chan fan, and back then a Browning fan, i am used to not think too much about the what ifs and the quints

Plushenko was way past his prime in 2010. He was 27 while Lycasek was 24 in his prime. I didn't mean being older will simply be better. But you need to be at the ideal age to be in top form to deliver under pressure, especially at the Olympics where a skater faces the biggest pressure. Also, a person rarely just delivers under the biggest pressure when he has never delivered under less pressure before. If someone has a long history of consistency, he is more likely to deliver when the pressure is on. If he has been inconsistent for a long time, then he is also more likely to not deliver when the biggest pressure is on. Sometimes, luck does happen. But statistically speaking, it's unlikely that someone with inconsistent record will suddenly give the performance of his life while everyone who historically has been consistent all bombs. If everyone is inconsistent, then whoever is lucky and delivers wins.

 

[karne]

Do the japanese skaters participate in the team event in 2018? Do they HAVE to? Idk the state of their pairs at the moment, but as they won't medal, I don't see the need.

The makeup of the team event is uncertain at this time. In order to qualify Japan will need to earn a spot in pairs or dance at Nebelhorn, and there's no guarantee that they will.

The kid who skates clean will beat a veteran who pops or falls.

I don't know about that. A lot of the veterans seem to have very generous PCS no matter what mistakes they make.

 

[4everchan]

The makeup of the team event is uncertain at this time. In order to qualify Japan will need to earn a spot in pairs or dance at Nebelhorn, and there's no guarantee that they will.



I don't know about that. A lot of the veterans seem to have very generous PCS no matter what mistakes they make.

if you look at the top 6 or 7 guys, the difference in pcs is tiny...and probably less than a quad

 

[gsyzf]

Up til now, I’d assumed Hanyu’s lightness would contribute to his longevity as a skater. As I’d spent more time around dancers’ bodies in my life, his physique is unusual to me. For example I’d seen recent clips going about of his shirt flying up during jumps in the ice shows, and as I’m very used to dancers’ bodies, it struck me how small he was in that area of his body, which is why the shirt flies up more than with the other performers, there’s just nothing there under the shirt. (the shirt’s really loose on him to begin with) It’s not leanness per se, dancers are very lean, but Hanyu’s small in thickness of his skeletal structure and very much longer than most from his ribs to his hipbones… so I thought it helped to rotate without using up his stamina too much. ergo longevity. (the height of the skates balances out his physique, but it is an unusual one, though less unusual amongst asians perhaps) However considering the frailty of a smaller frame, (and I’m not saying he does not have the condition of a champion athlete in his prime) as super conditioned and trained as he is, I’m not sure whether that lessens his longevity despite the efficiency of the light frame. Sorry just observances and questions i have about the skating physique as fs is comparatively new for me (versus dance)

I thought most dancers have small skeletal structure, or dance schools prefer dancers with small skeletal structure.

I don't think 22 years old is considered old in skating. (To me, male skaters in their late 20s and early 30s have longevity, not skaters in their early 20s.) I think longevity also depends on the skater's planning and training. Every skater understands their bodies to some extent. He and his teams have a four year plan for each olympics and they aim to peak at the Olympics. I think most male singles skaters won't have much trouble getting through to their early 20s. But getting past mid-20s and continuing to compete in late 20s and 30s is hard.

 

[chillgil]

so let's break it down:

OGM Contenders & their advantages vs. disadvantages:

Yuzuru Hanyu: Adv- experience at the olympics, in his prime (22years old), consistently scores high GOEs, PCS, and TEC; Disadvantage - crippling pressure since he's the reigning world and olympics champ, has trouble putting two clean skates back to back

Shoma Uno: Adv - high PCS and TEC, considerable mental strength; Disadvantage - no real olympic experience, not yet in his prime, jumps are not yet fully secure

Boyang Jin: Adv - high TEC, consistent, has mentality of underdog; Disadvantage - no real olympic experience, not in his prime, PCS much lower than other top medal contenders (hanyu, uno, chan, fernandez)

Javier Fernandez: Adv - lots of olympic experience, consistently high PCS; Disadvantage - past his prime, jump content not as high as the top medal contenders (chen, uno, jin, hanyu)

Patrick Chan: Adv - lots of olympic experience, best skating skills in the group, high PCS; Disadvantage - consistency, past his prime, jump content not as secure nor high as the top medal contenders

Nathan Chen: Adv - extremely consistent in difficult jumps, high TEC, judges assign him pretty good PCS despite relatively empty programs compared to skaters like Chan or Brown (like it or not this is an advantage for him ), strong fed backing him; Disadvantage - a lot of pressure on him as the US's only chance to medal in this event, not yet in his prime, no olympic experience

The way I see it these are the real medal contenders....i could include kolyada, brown, and perhaps even reynolds but im too lazy

if we were to assign points to each skater it would be-
Hanyu - 3 advantages, 2 disadvantage
Uno - 2 advantages, 3 disadvantages
Jin - 3 advantages, 3 disadvantages
Fernandez - 2 advantages, 2 disadvantages
Chan - 3 advantages, 3 disadvantages
Chen - 4 advantages, 3 disadvantages

some advantages will weigh in more than others, not sure if this helps anything but do what you will with this

 

[4everchan]

Patrick Chan ^^

how can you say he is past his prime when he is constantly adding jumps to his repertoire? I think he keep improving a lot... if he were at the level of Skate Canada 2015 where he won with 1 3A and 1 quad, and was hoping to win with that content this year, fair enough... but he keeps chasing, skating better and challenging himself in all areas of skating.
I am not really sure I'd say he is past his prime... compared to other guys, he only had his quad at 19.... so perhaps he is a late bloomer

 

[chillgil]

i think another user said that skaters are usually in their prime at ages 20-24
i do think he has been past his prime for the past two seasons but im open to seeing how this season will change that for him; i would argue taking that season off after sochi really hurt him but he may finally catch up this season!

 

[OnlyUno]

I thought most dancers have small skeletal structure, or dance schools prefer dancers with small skeletal structure.

I don't think 22 years old is considered old in skating. (To me, male skaters in their late 20s and early 30s have longevity, not skaters in their early 20s.) I think longevity also depends on the skater's planning and training. Every skater understands their bodies to some extent. He and his teams have a four year plan for each olympics and they aim to peak at the Olympics. I think most male singles skaters won't have much trouble getting through to their early 20s. But getting past mid-20s and continuing to compete in late 20s and 30s is hard.

Yes, I'm often saddened to realize how short skaters competitive yrs are, both male and female. But that's part of the sport! And yes, compared to average, dancers are slimmer and not that big. But compared to such dancers, and even other skaters it seems, Hanyu is extremely small. (he's on the short side, but there are very short dancers, however, that slight a skeletal structure I've never seen. At least not in ballet specifically.) As I begin to consider the stamina needed for the skating jumps, and the harshness of landings on ice with skates, I wondered if my original assumption of a slight frame lasting longer was mistaken. I am glad to hear 22 is not considered quite THAT old in this (extremely) harsh sport. (only middle-aged perhaps?!)

 

[yude]

I personally don't get the impression Chan and Fernandez past THEIR prime.

Hanyu also said the age had nothing to do with the skater's prime (one of the reasons for saying might be that he watches and trains with Javier in TCC).

 

[gsyzf]

I personally don't get the impression Chan and Fernandez past THEIR prime.

Hanyu also said the age had nothing to do with the skater's prime (one of the reasons for saying might be that he watches and trains with Javier in TCC).

Well, neither Chan nor Fernandez has medaled at GPF or WC since they turned 25. They have also become less consistent compared to when they were in their early 20s. So I do think both are past their prime. Which male skaters older than 25 actually got good results in the past? Plushenko got a silver medal in vancouver olympics in a weak field at the age of 27. Today's field is much more competitive than the vancouver era. So I think it will be even harder for men older than 25 to get good results today.

 

[4everchan]

^^ stats in this case are limited.... it's not like we can establish that skaters past 22-24 are no longer winning medals.... most of them no longer skate by then... so how many true contenders have we had over the years, who were above 25 at games? very few. Plushy was one and he got a silver. He even competed in Sochi, and earned his team a team gold at 31?


Fernandez was a month off of 25 btw when he last won worlds. He was clearly ahead of everyone after the SP at worlds as well this year....winning the SP. Patrick is on another trajectory. In 2016, he was rebuilding gradually. He peaked at 4CC with a skate that would have won him a medal this year at worlds (and last year as well). But this year, he has been playing with new layouts every often. He is bringing perhaps a new quad in the free this year. I am thinking that he has been gradually building up to peak at the right time, at the Olympics... not before.

The podium in Sochi was the youngest in a long time.... if not ever.

in 2010... the podium was quite "old" 24-27-24 if my maths are okay.

in 2006 plushy b. 1982, lambiel b. 1985 and buttle b. 1982 two were 24, with lambiel being born in april, 20.

in 2002, you have a young podium compared to the previous years, with skaters in their 20-22s... something unseen until 2014

in 1998 kulik was 20, stojko 25,almost 26, Candeloro 26.

I will stop here, 1994, the podium was younger. However, I don' t think mid twenties are very exceptional to podium at olympics... the real question to be asked is really the following :

How many skaters keep going, being contenders, at that age....? The reality is that for instance, young urnmanov, young kulik and others leave the sport younger than older... whatever the reasons. Jeffrey Buttle won worlds at 26, retired and didn't go for olympics at home. He would have been 28... but considering the field there, he could have medalled, who knows...

GO UNCLES !!!!

 

[Ice Dance]

We're past the stage where Patrick could defeat the rest of the world with three falls. Let's just leave it at that. Past the point where he dominated the sport. He's chasing. At this point he's an underdog among the lead pack. Like Takahashi in 2013-14, he's still in the lead pack but the second mark is what's keeping him there. He's trying to upgrade, and it's been a struggle; but he's making a serious attempt.

Belbin & Agosto have been quoted as saying that Vancouver was their best skated competition ever. I tend to think they know. They were certainly a stronger team in many ways in 2010 than in 2006. But they were more competitive in 2006. This happens. You can be in the best shape of your life and be less competitive than you were two years ago. Especially at the end of a quadrennium.

The field empties out after the Olympics. Athletes move up. Then the field refills as the next generation moves up. And the more experienced athletes either show what they're made of or move down. I think the Plushenko metaphor is a pretty good one, actually, though Chan & Plushenko are very different athletes.

But they were both young & inexperienced with a lot of pressure at their first Olympics. Both favorites (though I would say Patrick had to share the limelight with Hanyu) heading into their second Olympics. Both took time off after their second Olympics. And both came into their third across the ocean in something of an away game. Both competing for countries that didn't have another athlete that could fill their shoes. Hard shoes to fill.

 

[4everchan]

sorry but we are past the stage where anyone, including yuzuru could win OGM with two falls either.

 

[gsyzf]

I didn't mean it's impossible for older skaters to get good results. It's admirable they are still competing and trying to improve at an "old" age. But it's quite hard for them to remain technically competitive and consistent. If the field is weak, they can still get some good results. But if the field becomes much stronger than before (like what's happening today, the field just gets deeper every year), it becomes tough for them to get good results.

 

[yude]

Well, neither Chan nor Fernandez has medaled at GPF or WC since they turned 25. They have also become less consistent compared to when they were in their early 20s. So I do think both are past their prime. Which male skaters older than 25 actually got good results in the past? Plushenko got a silver medal in vancouver olympics in a weak field at the age of 27. Today's field is much more competitive than the vancouver era. So I think it will be even harder for men older than 25 to get good results today.

I'm not sure if I can explain well in English, but to me, "Prime" means not the result of the competition but the ability to execute their best skills fully. If we talk about only medals, yes they might have passed their prime, but they are still improving IMO which makes me think they haven't reached their prime yet.

 

[Ic3Rabbit]

We can all talk about this until the cows come home but the only thing that's going to do the real talking is Feb 2018.

 

[gsyzf]

I'm not sure if I can explain well in English, but to me, "Prime" means not the result of the competition but the ability to execute their best skills fully. If we talk about only medals, yes they might have passed their prime, but they are still improving IMO which makes me think they haven't reached their prime yet.

It's not impossible to execute a program well just once. What's hard is to execute a program many times consistently. So I usually look at an athlete's consistency when measuring someone's skill and peak. If someone's consistency starts to decline significantly, then I think he/she is technically past his/her prime.