Ladies OGM Contenders 2018

[Shayuki]

Honda's really not any more of a contender for OGM than about a dozen other ladies at this point in time. Sure, she might improve, but it's really not realistic to suggest that people are being unreasonable when they don't place her among the favorites. If we look at recent trajectories, Zagitova's is far more impressive. Jotting Honda as a likely winner is in my opinion extremely optimistic thinking.

Honda has faltered relatively often and has struggled to have absolutely perfect programs. Zagitova on the other hand just delivers time after time after time, just like Medvedeva. I don't think that her PCS will be enough, but the amount of faith I can place on Zagitova to deliver is much, much higher than I could place on Honda.

Depending on makeup, Honda's the most beautiful female skater, though. So there always is that to make you wish for her to do well. But I think that it's too early for her.

 

[mrfarmer]

There are some big differences between Honda and Zagitova. I assume that Satoko is healthy. Then Japan has just 1 slot to fill and Russia has 2 - twice as much. During the last Russian Nationals Zagitova was silver with a big margin over Sotskova. Marin was fourth after her big rivals to get into the team: Mai and Wakaba. Those two went to WTT and showed some crazy scores. So far Marin's best is 200.

So I have not included Marin in the list of contenders as I am not sure that she will get into the Japanese team in the first place. Japan Nationals is the moment of truth, of course. But there will be also the Cup of China where Wakaba, Mai, and Marin will skate against each other (and Zagitova as well). That will be one big event! If Marin wins over all mentioned I would immediately lift her to OM contenders. But not before.

I see your point. That's why it's going to be a bloodbath come Japanese Nationals. Hearts will be crushed, dreams will be shattered. Even Satoko's place isn't set in stone atm. But I'm pretty sure, in the Russian side of things that Zagi will be sent to the OG. And if she puts out two clean performances there, she can certainly make a case for the gold. But for now, I think Zhenya's unbeatable. I wish though that Zagi and Honda have a year of senior competition under their belts before this Olympic games, just because that would mean a more interesting OG.

 

[mrrice]

I see your point. That's why it's going to be a bloodbath come Japanese Nationals. Hearts will be crushed, dreams will be shattered. Even Satoko's place isn't set in stone atm. But I'm pretty sure, in the Russian side of things that Zagi will be sent to the OG. And if she puts out two clean performances there, she can certainly make a case for the gold. But for now, I think Zhenya's unbeatable. I wish though that Zagi and Honda have a year of senior competition under their belts before this Olympic games, just because that would mean a more interesting OG.

It really will depend on how the veterans are skating when they all get to nationals. If Tuk is back to her old self, she is definitely a threat. With Yulia, Med, Pogo, and sentimental skater, Leonova, the Russians are as deep as the ocean when comes their ladies..

 

[Weathergal]

It really will depend on how the veterans are skating when they all get to nationals. If Tuk is back to her old self, she is definitely a threat. With Yulia, Med, Pogo, and sentimental skater, Leonova, the Russians are as deep as the ocean when comes their ladies..

Not to mention Radionova and Sotskova. Radionova, in particular, won't go down without a fight.

 

[skylark]

^Agree with most of your analysis but I don't see Adelina even in the theoretical chances category especially as by her own admission her injury is a serious one. Other ladies from same group at least have GP assignments and some momentum from the last season.

I thought it was interesting that Adelina switched to Plushenko. She improved artistically in the last couple of years; now she systematically goes about working on the technical side ... or at least, I assume that.

It's also interesting that Plushenko is thinking long-term with her, saying that if the injury prevents her doing what she needs for 2018, they could consider 2022 Olympics.

 

[jajoana]

It really will depend on how the veterans are skating when they all get to nationals. If Tuk is back to her old self, she is definitely a threat. With Yulia, Med, Pogo, and sentimental skater, Leonova, the Russians are as deep as the ocean when comes their ladies..

Yulia and Leonova (and Adelina as well) don't have chances for the team. No matter how much we love them.

 

[DexterK]

Yulia and Leonova (and Adelina as well) don't have chances for the team. No matter how much we love them.

This is ultimately the reality. I would love to see Yulia make the Olympic team, but such is not in the cards. The field is too deep, too trained, too hungry for success. Yulia's jumping technique was never meant to sustain her post-Sochi. It nearly did not even do that. What it, among other factors, has done is contributed to her wild inconsistency. It is as unfortunate for her that consistency is what this sport uses to determine PCS marks, as it was fortunate for her in the run up to Sochi years before. That said, I would very much like to see her healthy and deliver at Russian Nationals this year and make a case for herself while silencing critics. What an amazing story this would be!

 

[Tutto]

I wonder if Carolina gets all her triples and skates clean if she could win OGM. The judges might give her mountainous pcs. Though I do think the odds are that not both Kostner and Savchenko and Massot would both win OGM's. It isn't really logical but odds wise both seasoned ladies having won OBM i just can't see the stars aligning. I think Savchenko has a stronger chance. But you never know with Carolina. And I still believe that Gracie has a shot and the best shot at OGM over Ashley and Karen. But ironically she also is the one most likely not to make the American team. I am also curious to see if Polina comes back and if she can have her own Kaetlyn Osmond moment.

I've just been wondering if there is another lady who took part in four consecutive Olympics (!) as a medal contender? Carolina had a chance in Torino, Vancouver, won bronze in Sochi and now not entirely without a chance for PyeongChang!

 

[Lucky Star]

Honda's really not any more of a contender for OGM than about a dozen other ladies at this point in time. Sure, she might improve, but it's really not realistic to suggest that people are being unreasonable when they don't place her among the favorites. If we look at recent trajectories, Zagitova's is far more impressive. Jotting Honda as a likely winner is in my opinion extremely optimistic thinking.

Honda has faltered relatively often and has struggled to have absolutely perfect programs. Zagitova on the other hand just delivers time after time after time, just like Medvedeva. I don't think that her PCS will be enough, but the amount of faith I can place on Zagitova to deliver is much, much higher than I could place on Honda.

Depending on makeup, Honda's the most beautiful female skater, though. So there always is that to make you wish for her to do well. But I think that it's too early for her.

The thing with Honda, she seems to be able to put it all together only once in a season. Sure, she peaked at the right time (Junior Worlds), but that won't be enough at the olympic season. She need to beat strong competitors at Nationals just to get to the Olympics, and to be a factor there she needs strong GP perfomances to build her momentum. And, of cource, two clean programs at Games. That means she should be flawless whole season, and I don't know how realistic that is. Zagitova is much more likely to deliver competition after competition, but time will tell.

I expect Russian team to be Evgenia, Alina and one of Anna/Elena. Sotskova needs some serious mistakes from them to make it, and I don't think her club/coach influence will help her much this time as Radionova is now at the same group. Liza... she has a potential to make it, but I doubt it. And she needs that triple axel. Tsurskaya is a real dark horse. She struggled with injuries, but she has it all to surprise us.

 

[Ender]

I see your point. That's why it's going to be a bloodbath come Japanese Nationals. Hearts will be crushed, dreams will be shattered. Even Satoko's place isn't set in stone atm. But I'm pretty sure, in the Russian side of things that Zagi will be sent to the OG. And if she puts out two clean performances there, she can certainly make a case for the gold. But for now, I think Zhenya's unbeatable. I wish though that Zagi and Honda have a year of senior competition under their belts before this Olympic games, just because that would mean a more interesting OG.

I find it pretty much double standards for people who run to claim Honda as the OGM material already while in reality she has not much better jumping technique than Miyahara.
They attack Medvedeva for her flutz, Miyahara for her double-triple, but why Marin Honda is hailed as if she's the best in all even though she is not. I find other Japanese ladies not weaker than Honda. Some even better especially in jumps.

 

[Ender]

The thing with Honda, she seems to be able to put it all together only once in a season. Sure, she peaked at the right time (Junior Worlds), but that won't be enough at the olympic season. She need to beat strong competitors at Nationals just to get to the Olympics, and to be a factor there she needs strong GP perfomances to build her momentum. And, of cource, two clean programs at Games. That means she should be flawless whole season, and I don't know how realistic that is. Zagitova is much more likely to deliver competition after competition, but time will tell.

I expect Russian team to be Evgenia, Alina and one of Anna/Elena. Sotskova needs some serious mistakes from them to make it, and I don't think her club/coach influence will help her much this time as Radionova is now at the same group. Liza... she has a potential to make it, but I doubt it. And she needs that triple axel. Tsurskaya is a real dark horse. She struggled with injuries, but she has it all to surprise us.

Biggest reason Honda peaked at both of the junior worlds was: she didn't have to suffer big attention and pressure.
She won gold at her first junior world when all the biggest rivals were out.
Her second junior world she came there not as a super heavy favorite. She had nothing to lose, just skate with a free mind. She didn't have a super successful season. So less pressure on her. Even that her LP was monotonous without projection like people want to make her to be.
Now, put her in real stress and we shall see.

 

[frida80]

Biggest reason Honda peaked at both of the junior worlds was: she didn't have to suffer big attention and pressure.
She won gold at her first junior world when all the biggest rivals were out.
Her second junior world she came there not as a super heavy favorite. She had nothing to lose, just skate with a free mind. She didn't have a super successful season. So less pressure on her. Even that her LP was monotonous without projection like people want to make her to be.
Now, put her in real stress and we shall see.

No pressure? She's from Japan, she gets ton of attention and pressure. Even more so since she was the reigning JW champ but had a lack luster season so far. She needed to win to prove that she was a contender. When reporters called her on her loss she cried. I think Japanese and Russian ladies are under a lot more pressure to perform well, especially when their fields are so deep.


I think this year without being the pressure of JW champ, she'll skate with less pressure. We'll see how she does when the challenger series starts.

 

[mrrice]

Yulia and Leonova (and Adelina as well) don't have chances for the team. No matter how much we love them.

Well, I haven't seen how Adelina is looking these days. I can tell you that she had gorgeous technique and jumps that were not just high, they also had great distance.

 

[sarama]

I have no idea what Marin will do this season, but she seems to handle pressure very well, last season for example her best competitions were Sr. Nats and Junior World (the two competitions were she had the most pressure on). She isn't the most consistent skater, and she has a tendency of losing levels, but everything else is great: her jumps aren't the biggest, but they are smooth, effortless, long and always beautifully integrated in her choreography. She might very well not be the next Olympic Champion, and the buzz around her might be increased by her family's popularity and by her poster girl smile, but she is a gorgeous all-around skater even at her age, and in the current ladies field she definitely stands out.

 

[Ender]

No pressure? She's from Japan, she gets ton of attention and pressure. Even more so since she was the reigning JW champ but had a lack luster season so far. She needed to win to prove that she was a contender. When reporters called her on her loss she cried. I think Japanese and Russian ladies are under a lot more pressure to perform well, especially when their fields are so deep.
I think this year without being the pressure of JW champ, she'll skate with less pressure. We'll see how she does when the challenger series starts.

No one expected Honda to win JWC in both 2015 and 2016. She came in as co-favorite, not the heavy favorite. Maybe some Japanese expected her to win but but JWC didn't happen in Japan.
I don't see any indication that Honda has mind of steel.
And I have eyes to see the flaws in her jumps compared to other Japanese ladies who might be better than her when it comes to jump technique.
I just don't think she will be OGM contender for 2018.

 

[frida80]

No one expected Honda to win JWC in both 2015 and 2016. She came in as co-favorite, not the heavy favorite. Maybe some Japanese expected her to win but but JWC didn't happen in Japan.
I don't see any indication that Honda has mind of steel.
And I have eyes to see the flaws in her jumps compared to other Japanese ladies who might be better than her when it comes to jump technique.
I just don't think she will be OGM contender for 2018.

2015?

I was just making the point that she is under a lot of pressure in her own country because the massive popularity of figure skating in Japan. US juniors get next to no coverage and barely anyone cares if they do well at junior level aside from diehard fans.

 

[gravy]

I wonder if Carolina gets all her triples and skates clean if she could win OGM. The judges might give her mountainous pcs. Though I do think the odds are that not both Kostner and Savchenko and Massot would both win OGM's. It isn't really logical but odds wise both seasoned ladies having won OBM i just can't see the stars aligning. I think Savchenko has a stronger chance. But you never know with Carolina. And I still believe that Gracie has a shot and the best shot at OGM over Ashley and Karen. But ironically she also is the one most likely not to make the American team. I am also curious to see if Polina comes back and if she can have her own Kaetlyn Osmond moment.

The way Kostner scored last season, the judges want to award her. If she skates clean with all her triples in Pyeongchang, she will medal. She scored ~4 points lower than her PB at Euros this year without a triple lutz, an under rotation, and it was her first major competition in nearly 3 years. I suspect she will skate faster and jump more securely next season when has been able to get in some more training time and readjust her competition nerves. If she could be semi-consistent next season, I could see her winning the Olympic gold.

But Carolina is Carolina and I expect some sort of splatty, roller coaster season.

I'd be thrilled if she won any medal, but I just hope she skates clean.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

This is ultimately the reality. I would love to see Yulia make the Olympic team, but such is not in the cards. The field is too deep, too trained, too hungry for success.

I think Evgenia is a lock, and probably Alina if she maintains her form. After that, I think the field is wide open. All the other Russian women are prone to the occasional meltdown, so anyone can skate a great event at Russian nationals and grab the spot.

 

[mrfarmer]

The way Kostner scored last season, the judges want to award her. If she skates clean with all her triples in Pyeongchang, she will medal. She scored ~4 points lower than her PB at Euros this year without a triple lutz, an under rotation, and it was her first major competition in nearly 3 years. I suspect she will skate faster and jump more securely next season when has been able to get in some more training time and readjust her competition nerves. If she could be semi-consistent next season, I could see her winning the Olympic gold.

But Carolina is Carolina and I expect some sort of splatty, roller coaster season.

I'd be thrilled if she won any medal, but I just hope she skates clean.

I'm all for Carolina taking that Olympic gold but I hope it will not be at the expense of others, or because the top players made mistakes. In Sochi, after her scores are announced, I kind of expected her to win, unless Yuna throws down one hell of a skate (which she did, kudos to that girl). But we all know what happened then. I still think she should have gotten Gold or Silver in Sochi. So I won't be shocked if she podiums again this Olympic season, because truly, girl can skate.

 

[mrfarmer]

Errant thought: What if Zagi gains unprecedented traction this season and beats Meds at GPF? Then drama ensues and Meds will choose not to train with her anymore and all other stuff will happen, etc. The Ladies event will then be called Battle of the Eteri Girls!

I can only hope, because I want drama.