Ladies OGM Contenders 2018

[LRK]

The thing is, when we say "Olympic pressure" it really means (or should mean) more than just the mental aspect of wanting to win something that something that only comes around every four years. It is also about the extra physical and mental pressure on the body and mind (and some would say soul) that comes with the hoopla of the Olympics.

For instances. Evgenia has never had to face the choice of walking in an opening ceremony. I suspect a lot of debate will happen on this topic. I could see Evgenia being the flab carrier honestly, but at the same time there might be a need/want to save her up for competition. Just the "will she or won't she" is added pressure in that it is crap to be decided. And if she walks, that is more pressure on the body. And while not overly strenuous, it may also just be not what she is used to and it is a calorie burn and it can't not be a huge emotional rush... this is something Evgenia has not faced and is part of the Olympic pressure.

Then we have the added press and media. Evgenia likely will be facing at least 3 times the reporters she normally does... that is more work and as such more pressure. Evgenia is not a robot (well... at least we don't have any evidence she is) this is more work, so it is logical she may be more tired than usual. She will need to cope with this pressure.

Then we have the whole Olympic village and it going on for a while. It is a long event away from home. Again, this is a pressure that can affect skaters. Just the excitement and distraction is a pressure that skaters have to deal with in some way.

I don't see Evgenia mentally cracking from the pressure to win, but I do think that she could find she is just exhausted by the ladies free skate and that could affect her. She has not faced this level of intensity yet, and she could be tired from it. I think the Olympics will be very exhausting for her if we are being realistic. The Olympics are a lot of fun I am sure but also are a lot of work for the Athletes, and I don't just mean competing. We should not overlook this aspect of the pressure of the Olympics.

I came to think of what Plush had to say about the Olympics (apropos Salt Lake City, but anyway):

"The Olympics – this is the main start in the life of a person, who has devoted himself to sport. If the sportsman is aware, that he can take part only in one Olympics, because of his age, he will make the most of it. He will make everything possible to win.
The Olympics are not like any other competition.

It is not like the European or World Championships. The training is completely different. The thrill is different, the emotions, the adrenalin, the atmosphere.
You have to prepare in another way. You have to save your strength till the end. And if something doesn’t happen on the training, it has to happen in the Olympics.
Our figure skating federation did all the necessary work to provide my successful training and it seemed to me, that I was really ready to win.
The Olympics are also a big feast. It takes you in its grip. You have to be prepared psychologically to resist that, or it will run you off the rails. In the town of the Olympics come many of your friends and acquaintances. There are competitions for many kinds of sport, apart of figure skating. I am fond of hockey. When I have free time I very often go to watch hockey matches. But at the Olympics I will myself not to watch even this, not to get distracted.
There are many feasts at the Olympics. Everywhere music and fireworks. But this is for the spectators, not for the competitors. At least till they finish their work. The ones, who struggle for the leadership, for the champion title, don’t feel like having a feast, they have to keep their strength till the decisive performance."

Extract from his autobiography, posted by plushyfan here:

http://goldenskate.com/forum/showthread.php?38503-Evgeni-Plushenko&p=1739890&viewfull=1#post1739890

 

[SnowWhite]

I came to think of what Plush had to say about the Olympics (apropos Salt Lake City, but anyway):

"The Olympics – this is the main start in the life of a person, who has devoted himself to sport. If the sportsman is aware, that he can take part only in one Olympics, because of his age, he will make the most of it. He will make everything possible to win.
The Olympics are not like any other competition.

It is not like the European or World Championships. The training is completely different. The thrill is different, the emotions, the adrenalin, the atmosphere.
You have to prepare in another way. You have to save your strength till the end. And if something doesn’t happen on the training, it has to happen in the Olympics.
Our figure skating federation did all the necessary work to provide my successful training and it seemed to me, that I was really ready to win.
The Olympics are also a big feast. It takes you in its grip. You have to be prepared psychologically to resist that, or it will run you off the rails. In the town of the Olympics come many of your friends and acquaintances. There are competitions for many kinds of sport, apart of figure skating. I am fond of hockey. When I have free time I very often go to watch hockey matches. But at the Olympics I will myself not to watch even this, not to get distracted.
There are many feasts at the Olympics. Everywhere music and fireworks. But this is for the spectators, not for the competitors. At least till they finish their work. The ones, who struggle for the leadership, for the champion title, don’t feel like having a feast, they have to keep their strength till the decisive performance."

Extract from his autobiography, posted by plushyfan here:

http://goldenskate.com/forum/showthread.php?38503-Evgeni-Plushenko&p=1739890&viewfull=1#post1739890

I remember Tessa and Scott saying similar things, though they had a slightly different take. They said they were glad they had some time between the opening ceremony in Vancouver and having to compete, because it took them a couple of days to recover mentally from walking with team Canada. They have also talked about how at their first games they were really just focused on their skating and everything else was somewhat of a blur (or something along those lines), but that it was important to them to really get the full Olympic experience in Sochi, since it is something so unique and special and different, like Plushenko said, and because they thought it would be their last. They talked about wanting to embrace that, instead of trying to act like it was any other competition. And even with the team event, they said what's hard about it is that it takes a lot out of you mentally/emotionally, not physically. But also that those memories of being with the team were some of their favourites.

The Olympics really are a different beast (not that that makes me assume Evgenia will struggle or anything)

 

[4everchan]

Evgenia has never had to face the choice of walking in an opening ceremony. I suspect a lot of debate will happen on this topic. I could see Evgenia being the flab carrier .

i agree with your post... there is a lot more at stake compared to worlds.... and i love the typo

 

[Skater Boy]

OGM Contender for ladies - Evgenia, Carolina, Alina, Anna, Gracie, Ashley, Satoko, Medal contenders all the Japanese ladies, Daleman and Osmond.

 

[brens78]

I'm still calling Meds to win barring she has no injuries and can deal with the pressure. Other possible chances would be Satoko if she's back on form, Kaetlyn if she can be a little more consistent and Gabby and Mai for a total surprise! I feel atm, it's a battle to get silver and bronze Come December and January, my guesses may change

 

[macy]

I think the podium will be a little similar to what we saw at worlds this year. if nothing crazy happens its med's to lose, and I think the other 2 will be a Russian (pogo) and a Canadian (kaetlyn probably). I think the ones with a real outside chance at a medal would be mai, gabby, alina, Ashley, and caro. obviously we don't know how alina will perform in the senior ranks with more pressure on her, but I think she'll be top 5 for sure.

wishes:

1. medvedeva
2. wagner
3. pogorilaya
4. osmond
5. daleman
6. zagitova
7. higuchi
8. kostner
9. mihara

actual predictions:

1. medvedeva
2. pogorilaya
3. Osmond
4. zagitova
5. daleman
6. wagner
7. mihara
8. kostner
9. higuchi

that being said I really think anything except for gold is up for grabs at this point. IMO it's going to be a toss up between 2-9, plus whoever else the US sends (Karen and Mariah i'm guessing). Just depends who has a good day and a bad day; any of them have the capability to beat one another.

i have no idea of what her plans are as far as when she will retire, but I would love to see medvedeva win to cap off a perfect winning streak (of course if zagitova doesn't catch her), wagner have a fire under her butt and perform two skates of a lifetime no matter where she places (but I would love for her to medal, realistically probably bronze), pogo to have a comeback, and kostner to have 2 solid skates to round out her career.

 

[skylark]

My hopes for a great Ladies Competition are that my favorites have great skates that they can be proud of.

The Technical Titans:

Evgenia is an all-round great skater, and her mental attitude and competitive nerves are far above the field. She has qualities as a skater that I love, including technique that never deserts her and a certain joyful charisma. Her physical stamina is really impressive. I'm not fond of her presentation style; I don't like the pantomiming or what seems a formula style of artistry. I'd love to see her do fewer 'tanos; it would challenge her to give her programs that extra something special.

Alina also has the benefit of the Eteri formula for success, and I'm not minimizing that. I liked her programs this year; she's fresh and engaging in her style. Also, I never count out a 15 or 16 year old coming to the Olympics. Especially in the ladies' category, considering a teen's advantage in technical ability and stamina, plus a certain mental advantage: anything's possible, and success and confidence breeds more of the same.

Mai Mihara has this great quality of exuberance and a subtle extroverted quality that IMO gives her an edge over her Japanese competitors. Plus she has great momentum built from this past year. I love her jumps; and I feel her artistry as coming straight from the heart. I just really enjoy her programs, and I anticipate enjoying them in the coming months.

Gabrielle Daleman impressed me as a jumper a couple of years ago, but I couldn't relate to what she put across in her programs. She's changed all that in the past year. It's so impressive to see someone bring her artistry up by a leap and a bound, in that short amount of time. Love her Rhapsody in Blue and I'm looking forward to what she brings next year. If it comes close to RiB, she can be a complete skater.


Charisma / Artistry Contenders:

Ashley has all the engagement and charisma to be the complete package and the dark horse. When she delivers her technique to the best of her ability, she's very competitive in this field. I love her spirit and her ability to endure and keep surprising. But when it comes down to it, what I really love is her quality as a performer and her commitment to connecting with audiences. She has drama and subtlety in her movement and really catches the nuances of the music, making programs absolutely her own, creating a story, powerful emotion, and magic.

Kaetlyn portrays her music and her characters beautifully. Just as much, you can tell how much she loves doing it. My favorite quote from her is: "My biggest surprise of this entire experience (2016-17) is that I remembered how much I love competing and performing, and the shock that I had lost that for a while without even realizing it." Kind of says it all, and it shows.

Carolina has gorgeous artistry and a calm, happy demeanor on the ice. That's probably my favorite thing about her. I'm personally less emotionally engaged with her than with Ashley and Kaetlyn, but that's personal taste. What I love about her is exactly what Sandra Bezic said about her at Sochi: "This is what figure skating can be, when you put the time in. The years."

Karen Chen has such beautiful artistry and attention to detail. Also, her ice presence is as huge as her 3Lz-3T. She fills the ice in a way that is amazing for a girl of her size. It's quiet artistry like Satoko's, but much more of a thrill, IMO. Satoko's far more consistent, but I can see the effort when she skates.

Anna's artistry is emotional and elegant. It will be really interesting to see whether she can overcome her catastrophe at Worlds; I'm hoping she will. She's also got beautiful technique. She's probably my favorite of the Russian ladies.

I'd love to see some of these ladies climbing up to the level of Evgenia's scores over the season, right up through Olympics and Worlds. It will make the ladies' category so much more interesting. This seems like a lot of contenders. Right now, I'm good with that.

 

[Tutto]

I came to think of what Plush had to say about the Olympics (apropos Salt Lake City, but anyway):

"The Olympics – this is the main start in the life of a person, who has devoted himself to sport. If the sportsman is aware, that he can take part only in one Olympics, because of his age, he will make the most of it. He will make everything possible to win.
The Olympics are not like any other competition.

It is not like the European or World Championships. The training is completely different. The thrill is different, the emotions, the adrenalin, the atmosphere.
You have to prepare in another way. You have to save your strength till the end. And if something doesn’t happen on the training, it has to happen in the Olympics.
Our figure skating federation did all the necessary work to provide my successful training and it seemed to me, that I was really ready to win.
The Olympics are also a big feast. It takes you in its grip. You have to be prepared psychologically to resist that, or it will run you off the rails. In the town of the Olympics come many of your friends and acquaintances. There are competitions for many kinds of sport, apart of figure skating. I am fond of hockey. When I have free time I very often go to watch hockey matches. But at the Olympics I will myself not to watch even this, not to get distracted.
There are many feasts at the Olympics. Everywhere music and fireworks. But this is for the spectators, not for the competitors. At least till they finish their work. The ones, who struggle for the leadership, for the champion title, don’t feel like having a feast, they have to keep their strength till the decisive performance."

Extract from his autobiography, posted by plushyfan here:

http://goldenskate.com/forum/showthread.php?38503-Evgeni-Plushenko&p=1739890&viewfull=1#post1739890

In her interviews Eteri said more than once that the Olympics should be treated as any other competition, then the pressure won't 'get' to you. But I think this approach has already backfired once with Yulia when Eteri pretty much ignored all the hype after the team event and we all know what happened in the individual competition. Could the same happen to Evgenia? Is Eteri's approach leave the skaters unprepared for the sheer scale of the Olympics? Your thoughts?
My personal opinion is that instead of denying that there is an extra pressure at the Olympics, you need somehow to prepare to enjoy it and make it work for you - easier said than done of course...

 

[sarama]

I
My personal opinion is that instead of denying that there is an extra pressure at the Olympics, you need somehow to prepare to enjoy it and make it work for you - easier said than done of course...

I can't say from personal experience, obviously, but many (former) skaters shared the same opinion as Plushenko. I think it was Orser who said skaters have to embrace the added pressure of the Olympics, because there is no way to hide from it.

 

[MaiKatze]

In her interviews Eteri said more than once that the Olympics should be treated as any other competition, then the pressure won't 'get' to you. But I think this approach has already backfired once with Yulia when Eteri pretty much ignored all the hype after the team event and we all know what happened in the individual competition. Could the same happen to Evgenia? Is Eteri's approach leave the skaters unprepared for the sheer scale of the Olympics? Your thoughts?
My personal opinion is that instead of denying that there is an extra pressure at the Olympics, you need somehow to prepare to enjoy it and make it work for you - easier said than done of course...

Imho you cannot compare Sochi to Pyeongchang. You cannot compare Julia to Evgenia. Julia had not won a big title, Evgenia comes into these games after two incredible seasons where she only lost (If you can even call a silver that) once in a GP event at the beginning of her senior career. The pressure will be there but it's not the same pressure that Julia had in Russia, being younger and less experienced. I'm not at all worried that Evgenia will crumble, we haven't seen any nerves and she wins with mistakes because she is so far ahead. She's the overwhelming favourite Julia never was, in South Korea - not Russia. If Evgenia should stumble at all, and Alina is also going to the Games, Eteri has no problems. I don't think both of them are going to collapse.

Of course, you'll never know. Evgenia has only known success. How will she react if the season doesn't go her way and she stops dominating? That could be crucial.

 

[Tutto]

Imho you cannot compare Sochi to Pyeongchang. You cannot compare Julia to Evgenia. Julia had not won a big title, Evgenia comes into these games after two incredible seasons where she only lost (If you can even call a silver that) once in a GP event at the beginning of her senior career. The pressure will be there but it's not the same pressure that Julia had in Russia, being younger and less experienced. I'm not at all worried that Evgenia will crumble, we haven't seen any nerves and she wins with mistakes because she is so far ahead. She's the overwhelming favourite Julia never was, in South Korea - not Russia. If Evgenia should stumble at all, and Alina is also going to the Games, Eteri has no problems. I don't think both of them are going to collapse.

Of course, you'll never know. Evgenia has only known success. How will she react if the season doesn't go her way and she stops dominating? That could be crucial.

Well, though I agree that it is highly unlikely but stranger things did happen. Who'd have thought that Michelle, a great competitor, would 'crumble' under pressure at SLC?

 

[GrandmaCC]

I don't know if we can compare Yulia to Evgenia also due to the fact that Eteri (and Evgenia) will have knowledge of what to expect re the Team Event. Although of course there will be no worry of Evgenia facing the same sudden overnight sensation/mobbing from fans/weight of national pressure at a home Olympics that Yulia experienced, Eteri will likely know how to have Evgenia view the event, such as, perhaps as a dress rehearsal to work out kinks if that mindset works best for her? And also whether she should skate both programs or just one, and if so which one.
I think Yulia may have been a bit of an unintentional experiment in this regard simply due to "her" Olympics being the first one with that event.
In terms of experienceing the atmosphere of the Games, I think it would depend on the individual as to their own mindset and what relaxes or pumpes them up most. If I recall correctly, Tara revelled in immersing herself in the Village life, which carried over into her joy and freedom in her FS.
As for walking in the opening ceremonies, I would personally never dream of doing this, even as flag bearer (and yes, I know Tara marched. But I still wouldn't). Even with there being a rest period between the March and the competition, the physical toll of being on your legs for so long, combined with the exposure to germs from countless other athletes would make that a no-no for me. Hell, I shuddered at the thought of partaking at our national University Games opening ceremonies. It's just too much of a toll on a body IMO. After all, there is always the closing ceremony.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Imho you cannot compare Sochi to Pyeongchang. You cannot compare Julia to Evgenia. Julia had not won a big title, Evgenia comes into these games after two incredible seasons where she only lost (If you can even call a silver that) once in a GP event at the beginning of her senior career. The pressure will be there but it's not the same pressure that Julia had in Russia, being younger and less experienced. I'm not at all worried that Evgenia will crumble, we haven't seen any nerves and she wins with mistakes because she is so far ahead. She's the overwhelming favourite Julia never was, in South Korea - not Russia. If Evgenia should stumble at all, and Alina is also going to the Games, Eteri has no problems. I don't think both of them are going to collapse.

I agree with your statement, but I think Tutto alludes to a good point that the favorite woman usually doesn't win the Olympics. Since 1998, a period encompassing 5 Games, 2010 was the only one in which the favorite won. Three times during that period (2002, 2006, 2014) the winner wasn't even amongst the top 2 contenders. Having said that, there is no evidence whatsoever to suggest that pressure will impact Evgenia's competitive performances.

 

[sinnerspinner]

Elizaveta T - means Elizaveta Tuktamysheva

We are in the same boat. She would have to bring back the 3a for sure and some more interesting choreography. Oh yes, and consistency. If she could do a 3a combo is competition, omg that would be amazing.

I see Evgenia winning again. I wouldnt be shocked if the top 3 ladies were Russian.

My wish list, emphasis on *wish*

1.Gracie
2. Liza T
3. Pogo

 

[friedbanana]

So I think I'm going to spend the rest of offseason trying to voodoo Satoko and Pogo onto the Olympic podium :agree:

 

[jFarrisFAN]

Judges are more than ready to prop the Canadian ladies if they hit. They jump and skate big. They need to capitalize on this. It may sound cheap but they need to skate to a gladiator/dramatic music especially Daleman. Its the Olympics, emotions will be overflowing. And ofcourse they need to skate clean.

Few of the ladies can beat Evgenia in the SP but its the LP where she slay them all. Either beat Evgenia in her own gameplan ala Zagitova, or come up with a better program where you can match her TES+GOE and be consistent enough. I really do think 3A is the way to beat a consistent Evgenia.

This if funny because gabby is skating to the gladiator soundtrack this year... my friend was there when it was being choreographed

 

[Skater Boy]

I wonder if Carolina gets all her triples and skates clean if she could win OGM. The judges might give her mountainous pcs. Though I do think the odds are that not both Kostner and Savchenko and Massot would both win OGM's. It isn't really logical but odds wise both seasoned ladies having won OBM i just can't see the stars aligning. I think Savchenko has a stronger chance. But you never know with Carolina. And I still believe that Gracie has a shot and the best shot at OGM over Ashley and Karen. But ironically she also is the one most likely not to make the American team. I am also curious to see if Polina comes back and if she can have her own Kaetlyn Osmond moment.

 

[LRK]

This if funny because gabby is skating to the gladiator soundtrack this year... my friend was there when it was being choreographed

Really? That could be really... awesome - can't wait to see it.

 

[Ender]

A Russian lady, a Canadian lady and a Japanese lady fighting for the podium result. I don't have trust in American ladies. Maybe 2 Russian ladies will be on podium. But I doubt it.

 

[Skatingcat]

I want a big shakeup.

Yes I want Ashley to medal (I like her grit and stick-to-itiveness).

But otherwise, I want a huge surprise. As a viewer, it's fun when there's a sense of "anything can happen." When Eugenia is in the field, part of me doesn't want to watch because I know how it will end (but of course I still watch).