This is the way I viewed things last year and that was why I so tweaked that USFS gave the Worlds slot to Jason over Vincent. Vincent seemed to be on more of an upward tangent that than Jason (if Vincent stays healthy). I prefer Adam to Jason and Max is so inconsistent.
2017-18 State of U.S. Men's Figure Skating
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This is the way I viewed things last year and that was why I so tweaked that USFS gave the Worlds slot to Jason over Vincent. Vincent seemed to be on more of an upward tangent that than Jason (if Vincent stays healthy). I prefer Adam to Jason and Max is so inconsistent.
I'm staying away from percentages for now and will change my opinion as the season progresses. But for now nobody is a lock/definite. Nathan probably, his jumps, his new programs, so much potential.
Vincent, Adam, Max, Jason are possibilities. Each has his strengths and weaknesses but none has the potential of Nathan. Ross, Grant, Tim no. Not going to happen except in an alternate universe.
Vincent, Adam, Max, Jason are possibilities. Each has his strengths and weaknesses but none has the potential of Nathan. Ross, Grant, Tim no. Not going to happen except in an alternate universe.
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I don't know what to make of Grant. Did anyone see his LP? He was in 2nd place following the SP and dropped to fourth after placing 6th in the LP. That's too bad.
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Slipping by to gloat over my boy Andrew Torgeshev's very good competition in Belarus.
Two very solid programs and a silver medal.
However, not a 3A throughout the comp - so I'm wondering if he is nursing some injury or having a technical issue that caused him to downgrade his axels to doubles. Note: they looked like deliberate doubles, and not failed attempts at triples.
Positive GOE on his quad toe, and the program looked very controlled. Good job!
Two very solid programs and a silver medal.
However, not a 3A throughout the comp - so I'm wondering if he is nursing some injury or having a technical issue that caused him to downgrade his axels to doubles. Note: they looked like deliberate doubles, and not failed attempts at triples.
Positive GOE on his quad toe, and the program looked very controlled. Good job!
FWIW, Adam hasn't beat Jason in their head to head competitions since Skate America 2013. Last season Jason beat every U.S. man except Nathan (0-4) and Vincent (0-1). He and Adam will both be at NHK. The only U.S. man he'll face at this point is Adam, at NHK.
Another competition down. I'll say that my odds are not by any means statistically precise.
At this point, I'd say that Nathan has really good odds (they remain at 90 percent or so). Jason, Adam and Max are kinda toss ups but I'd up to the 45-55 range . percent. Vincent is a huge question mark cause we haven't seen him since July!, but unless we have any other data to work with, I'll keep him at 70 percent.
Unfortunately Ross and Grant have gone down in my odds, like maybe 20 percent. Higher odds to end up in top 6 for 4CC.
Andrew had a solid JGP showing and I'd go ahead and put him in dark horse for a 4CC spot and a strong certainty for a Jr. Worlds spot.
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- Jul 9, 2014
Adam won Nationals in 2016 but looking at the results, it appears that Jason didn't compete that year. Was he injured???I could be wrong but, at their best I have Nathan and Vincent as the top US Men. Still don't know about Joshua Farris. Grant and Ross have had disappointing debuts but, I think Max looks good. Personally, I think we need big jumpers to compete with top Men in the World but, I will support whoever brings it at nationals.
Jason wasn't at 2016 Nationals cause he was injured. They did compete against each other at Team Challenge Cup later that season where Jason scored higher than Adam in both segments (it was kind of a strange format, and Adam was off peak after Worlds, so not a perfect comparison). And Jason beat Adam at all their face-to-face match-ups (while both were, in theory healthy) last year.
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Andrew may be another skater whose quads are better than his 3A. To date I don't think he's ever landed a clean 3A in competition. He even made a mistake on a 2A in the FS this weekend.
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We all know I love my boy Andrew T., but the Olympics? Well, stranger things have happened...
But as I said in the JGP thread, to 3A or not to 3A, is not my concern. That ending step sequence on the LP is Jason worthy:luv17::luv17::luv17: If can keep his stamina going to skate that step sequence to perfection, I think the crowd at Nats will love it.
But as I said in the JGP thread, to 3A or not to 3A, is not my concern. That ending step sequence on the LP is Jason worthy:luv17::luv17::luv17: If can keep his stamina going to skate that step sequence to perfection, I think the crowd at Nats will love it.
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- Aug 12, 2014
I'm probably going to getfor posting this, but I think I was the only skating fan who doubted that Michelle would win in Salt Lake City. Going "coachless" and then not really being as technically sharp as she needed to be was some bad mojo - especially in an Olympic year.
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You weren't the only one. I thought it was a very bad idea ... having her father coach/drill/train/give her advice just before the competition? I don't think so. It was no surprise at all that she had mistakes.
Yeah, kinda sad about the lack of 3A for Andrew, but like others have said, quads may actually come easier to him, and I'm glad to see him land a clean one the past weekend. His ss are money; he deservedly got the highest pcs in the competition(and overall so far in the jgp?). How many people have equal or better ss than him in juniors and seniors combined, honestly?
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- Jan 28, 2013
We all know I love my boy Andrew T., but the Olympics? Well, stranger things have happened...
But as I said in the JGP thread, to 3A or not to 3A, is not my concern. That ending step sequence on the LP is Jason worthy:luv17::luv17::luv17: If can keep his stamina going to skate that step sequence to perfection, I think the crowd at Nats will love it.
For sure, El, he's a darkhorse, but I don't think it would be all that strange for him to make it. Here's why:
He's one of maybe a half-dozen skaters with the jumps to be a real contender, provided he keeps them consistent. He started modestly in this opening competition, but he landed that quad. His non-jump skating can be truly beautiful, and I think is the kind of skating really appreciated by international judges.
Going into US Nationals, he won't have a ton of expectation riding on his shoulders, and if he hits the comp on a hot week, then anything can happen.
Remember, Polina Edmunds made the team exactly this way. No expectations or pressure, two really good performances, and some favored skaters melting under the pressure.
No... I'm not writing Andrew off.
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From your lips to the skating gods' ears. :agree:
I know you don't share this particular sentiment, but if Andrew T. and Jason made the US men's Oly team I would be
Yes he is compeating as a senior in the US.
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From your lips to the skating gods' ears. :agree:
I know you don't share this particular sentiment, but if Andrew T. and Jason made the US men's Oly team I would be
But el, it's not just about sentiment. I want the three most deserving men to be Team USA at the Olympics. Now, as we've discussed on another thread, I think that should be the Top 3 at US Nats - end of story. Now, I know you disagree, and I respect that, but I'm consistent.
If the Top 3 are Tom, Dick, and Harry who are not on anyone's "list" then so be it.
When I'm projecting who I think has a shot - I'm guessing at who has the best chance to medal at US Nats. If that's Jason, then fine, but right now I don't think so.
Of course, as we all keep saying, the GP season isn't even underway. All my choices - and the choices of anyone with a brain - are subject to change based on skater performance throughout the season. But they've got to show me first - or at least they've got to show me the potential.
So far, Nathan has shown me. Vincent has shown me. Max has shown me. And Andrew has shown me great potential. Jason has shown me a beautiful, but technically deficient long program and a SP that I dislike. Ross has shown me a quirky SP that I like better on second viewing, but overall is really a TCS mess. Grant gave a glimpse but really just a peek. I haven't seen Adam, so I'm neutral.
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Until something changes, those are my exact picks if you asked me today. It's still too early to make a real prediction.
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Ah, Tonto, but we are looking for different things. Which is fine and good, but it will definitely affect what gets "shown".
I don't think anyone can "show me" this early, from summer comps and challengers, but that's what makes the season and what makes discussions.
And I actually *do* believe in the top three at 2018 Nats should go to the Olys. (I am not not not going to make this thread another "you know who versus you know who" from 2017 Nats. Been there, done that, although I guess if people can still argue about the Sochi ladies....
) But I don't think anyone believes that if Nathan has some kind of disastrous meltdown at Nats, the USFS won't select him for the Olympics. If Nathan can stand in skates, he's going. No matter who the top three are. 
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- Jan 28, 2013
I think they're showing more than what you're seeing.
Who has the technical goods early? A basis on which to improve over the season?
Who has artistically interesting programs?
Who is further along in developing two competition ready performances?
Who is pushing their own boundaries? Who is revamping older material that they're more comfortable with?
Who are the judges liking early? And is that tipping the hand to show who they'll like later in a tight competition?
Are the summer comps and challenges the be-all-end-all? No, of course not.
But there are still things to learn from them.
Just putting for the record: Joshua Farris is out of NHK and his name is crossed off in the GP Events grid (the website is not working; will link when it's up again).
This was probably not a surprise, but still sad. I'm hoping that he can still return to Nationals. With no competition assignments, he'll have to compete at a regionals/sectionals. Josh would be in the Southwestern regional, which is Oct. 11-15.
The definite nail would be if we don't see him at sectionals (I think USFS can still provide byes through regional pretty easily). The Midwestern Sectionals is scheduled for Nov. 14-18. NHK, however, is Nov. 10-12 (which would have given him a bye through sectionals).
***
Next up:
Nebelhorn Trophy: Alexander Johnson
JGP Croatia: Alexei Krasnozhon (2nd event; he won JGP Brisbane) and Guko Endo (JGP debut)
This was probably not a surprise, but still sad. I'm hoping that he can still return to Nationals. With no competition assignments, he'll have to compete at a regionals/sectionals. Josh would be in the Southwestern regional, which is Oct. 11-15.
The definite nail would be if we don't see him at sectionals (I think USFS can still provide byes through regional pretty easily). The Midwestern Sectionals is scheduled for Nov. 14-18. NHK, however, is Nov. 10-12 (which would have given him a bye through sectionals).
***
Next up:
Nebelhorn Trophy: Alexander Johnson
JGP Croatia: Alexei Krasnozhon (2nd event; he won JGP Brisbane) and Guko Endo (JGP debut)
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