2017-18 State of U.S. Men's Figure Skating

[el henry]

I thought skaters were invited, not assigned to GP events (except the host pick in your own country). So it's a coincidence. But a useful one the US fed.

Exactly; they were invited by the Japanese fed, and I believe this is the third(?) NHK that Jason has been invited to. His Japanese fans love him. i know less about Adam and Josh's status, but I would also think they would be draws.

The only "given" with the US men, in my mind, is Nathan. Whether I like it or not, absent the apocalypse, even in September, he's going. But I think nothing else is certain and I think the US men have an embarrassment of riches.

 

[Ic3Rabbit]

We might have a better idea of the horse race when Adam competes at Finlandia.

As I said, it's way too early to call anything. Back in the fall of 2013, Adam and Max looked like strong bets after their GP performances with Jason as a dark horse when he got his GP medal. Most likely didn't expect Jeremy to make a second team, let alone win U.S. Nationals again.

Well I mean, I did.

 

[Mrs. P]

Well I mean, I did.

I originally said "Nobody," but figured there were a few believers there.

 

[TontoK]

who is most likely not to make the team between Jason and Adam?

If I had to put money on it right now, I'd say "Neither." I don't think either make the team.

Of course, a lot can happen between now and US Nats, which is why I think it's going to be a great season for US men. A lot is on the line, and there is little room for error.

They know the heat is on, too. Does anyone remember so many skaters really bringing it hard during the summer comps last year?

Mrs P's sentimental favorite, Ross Miner, is up next, correct? And my personal favorite darkhorse, Torgeshev, skates in JPG this weekend, I think.

 

[Ice Dance]

I thought skaters were invited, not assigned to GP events (except the host pick in your own country). So it's a coincidence. But a useful one for the US fed.

Yes, they are. But Japan and the U.S. have been pretty supportive of inviting one another's skaters. And USFS obviously has some influence. You can tell they send out skaters with the same coaches to the same GP events quite often. So it may be coincidence, as you said. And it may not. Sure looks like a much stronger pattern this season that the borderline U.S. Olympic team athletes are pitted against one another before Nationals. Usually, they are more spaced out. All that said, it's very common for borderline athletes from the previous year to not wind up being the actual borderline athletes the following year. I think it will be nice to see Adam & Jason back to back at NHK, but I just think of it as one more opportunity to see how they do.

 

[Mrs. P]

If I had to put money on it right now, I'd say "Neither." I don't think either make the team.

Of course, a lot can happen between now and US Nats, which is why I think it's going to be a great season for US men. A lot is on the line, and there is little room for error.

They know the heat is on, too. Does anyone remember so many skaters really bringing it hard during the summer comps last year?

Mrs P's sentimental favorite, Ross Miner, is up next, correct? And my personal favorite darkhorse, Torgeshev, skates in JPG this weekend, I think.

My current odds -- with the caveat that it's SEPTEMBER

Nathan -95 percent (raise from 90 percent due to U.S. classic performance)
Vincent - 65 percent (they were slightly much higher, but the W/D from his other summer comp plus the reports of knee pain reduced my odds a bit)
Jason/Max/Adam- 55 percent (same from previously for Jason and Max based on Senior B. I'm putting Adam here for now to his solid 250+ summer comp score, this could change depending on Finlandia performance)
Ross/Josh/Grant 45 percent (same from my previous odds)
Tim/Alex J. 40 percent (same)
Sean/Jordan/Andrew/Alexei 35 percent (same)

Ross and Grant have a chance to change my odds this weekend at Autumn Classic and Ondrej Nepala Trophy, respectively. Andrew T. is at JGP Belarus.

 

[TontoK]

My current odds -- with the caveat that it's SEPTEMBER

Nathan -95 percent (raise from 90 percent due to U.S. classic performance)
Vincent - 65 percent (they were slightly much higher, but the W/D from his other summer comp plus the reports of knee pain reduced my odds a bit)
Jason/Max/Adam- 55 percent (same from previously for Jason and Max based on Senior B. I'm putting Adam here for now to his solid 250+ summer comp score, this could change depending on Finlandia performance)
Ross/Josh/Grant 45 percent (same from my previous odds)
Tim/Alex J. 40 percent (same)
Sean/Jordan/Andrew/Alexei 35 percent (same)

Ross and Grant have a chance to change my odds this weekend at Autumn Classic and Ondrej Nepala Trophy, respectively. Andrew T. is at JGP Belarus.

My VERY EARLY picks about mirror yours.

Nathan's a lock, barring injury. I think Vincent is a better than 50% pick, although I'm watching this injury situation, too.

For the third spot, I lean towards Max. But I'm very interested in seeing what Ross will do.

And, of course, you know I'm still on the Torgeshev bandwagon, at least as a darkhorse.

 

[Bluediamonds09]

I just KNEW that Ross was gonna pop that quad salchow. I just knew it! Ugh!!!!! I expect it from him now! He must have been awesome at practice or champs camp or wherever, or the usfsa just really like him , because he's still going to be on the GP. I do love his skating though. Which frustrates me even more because he could be a superstar!

 

[TontoK]

I just KNEW that Ross was gonna pop that quad salchow. I just knew it! Ugh!!!!! I expect it from him now! He must have been awesome at practice or champs camp or wherever, or the usfsa just really like him , because he's still going to be on the GP. I do love his skating though. Which frustrates me even more because he could be a superstar!

The bigger issue was that every pass was flawed. In addition to the pop, the 3A had an uncontrolled landing with 3turns. The combo had a hand down, and not just a brush.

Other than that, the performance was very flat, although how he'd sell it with so many errors is a question mark.

The big guns in the sport are coming out strong - either in jumps or artistic advancements - and though it's early, the other skaters seem to see it as "game on."

Mrs P won't like this, but unless there is some undisclosed injury or illness or some explanation for this performance, I'm writing Ross off my list of legitimate contenders for the team.

 

[Ic3Rabbit]

Just when everyone writes Ross off he goes to Nationals and redeems himself. So...I know it's a long shot but I'm not writing him off just yet..

Plus I liked that SP at ACI regardless of errors.

 

[andromache]

I would not put any amount of money on Ross going to Olympics or Worlds. 4CCs, quite possibly.

 

[reneerose]

Ross and Ricky share the same syndrome unfortunately. At least Ross is still skating.

I think Jason, Max, Adam, and Nathan for the Olympics....there aren't enough slots!

 

[Skater Boy]

My VERY EARLY picks about mirror yours.

Nathan's a lock, barring injury. I think Vincent is a better than 50% pick, although I'm watching this injury situation, too.

For the third spot, I lean towards Max. But I'm very interested in seeing what Ross will do.

And, of course, you know I'm still on the Torgeshev bandwagon, at least as a darkhorse.

Jason Brown and Nathan Chen are the co faves. Jason is a wonderful skater and the judges love him. Then it is between Vincent, Adam, Max, Grant and then maybe Timothy and Josh, Alex oh and Ross too. I wonder about Josh because while he has a lot of support here his performances and ability at this point isn't that impressive.

 

[Ic3Rabbit]

Ross and Ricky share the same syndrome unfortunately. At least Ross is still skating.

I think Jason, Max, Adam, and Nathan for the Olympics....there aren't enough slots!

In Ricky's defense he was injured and then retired because it wasn't worth it to return. He is coaching though.

 

[Blades of Passion]

My current odds -- with the caveat that it's SEPTEMBER

Nathan - 95 percent (raise from 90 percent due to U.S. classic performance)
Vincent - 65 percent (they were slightly much higher, but the W/D from his other summer comp plus the reports of knee pain reduced my odds a bit)
Jason/Max/Adam- 55 percent (same from previously for Jason and Max based on Senior B. I'm putting Adam here for now to his solid 250+ summer comp score, this could change depending on Finlandia performance)
Ross/Josh/Grant 45 percent (same from my previous odds)
Tim/Alex J. 40 percent (same)
Sean/Jordan/Andrew/Alexei 35 percent (same)

These combined percentages need to add up to 300 don't you think? I'd say you're being ultra generous to the lower ranked skaters.

Nathan - 99.9%, he would need to be seriously injured to not be at the Olympics
Vincent - 80%, by far the most quad potential and consistency out of everyone not named Nathan, he will likely be going
Jason - 45%, highest PCS ability, can perhaps make it again without a (good) quad, since nobody else is very consistent on theirs
Max - 38%, the 3rd best jumper in the field, but everything else in his skating is lacking
Adam - 35%, coming back from injury, needs to depend on PCS and needs to show better jumping ability than Jason
Grant/Ross - 1% each, they need to skate their best ever at Nationals and at the same time hope for others to mess up
Everyone else - 0.1% chance combined

 

[mrrice]

Ross and Ricky share the same syndrome unfortunately. At least Ross is still skating.

I think Jason, Max, Adam, and Nathan for the Olympics....there aren't enough slots!

No Max or Vincent???? If the US is smart, they need to realize that sending a skater to the games without a "reliable" quad gives them little chance at success. I love Jason's skating and if he can get himself 2 stable quads, his component mark might get him into the final flight but, I can't see him getting on the podium.

 

[TMC]

No Max or Vincent???? If the US is smart, they need to realize that sending a skater to the games without a "reliable" multi quad gives them little chance at success. I love Jason's skating if he can get himself 2 stable quads, his component mark might get him into the final flight but, I can't see him getting on the podium.

If getting on the podium is the only reason to send skaters to the Olympics, might as well not have Nationals at all and just send Nathan alone?

 

[mrrice]

If getting on the podium is the only reason to send skaters to the Olympics, might as well not have Nationals at all and just send Nathan alone?

What??? Who said that? The way that skating has been trending, it seems clear that a man will not end up on the podium without a quad. Jason Brown was fantastic at Worlds last year and finished 7th. That's great but, I have to think a healthy Adam Rippon would have beaten him. I don't really have favorite among the US Men and whoever skates the best is who I will cheer for. If you asked me who has the most potential of having a break through moment like Sarah Hughes did in 2002. I think fresh off his Junior Title, Vincent could shock everyone. I mean, there are very few people who saw Sarah's win coming since she wasn't even the US Champion going into the games.

 

[musicfan80]

If you asked me who has the most potential of having a break through moment like Sarah Hughes did in 2002. I think fresh off his Junior Title, Vincent could shock everyone. I mean, there are very few people who saw Sarah's win coming since she wasn't even the US Champion going into the games.

I think there were hints that Sarah could have a great Olympic year when she won bronze at 2001 Worlds. She then followed that up with a win at Skate Canada and two silvers (Skate America and Trophee Lalique?) and then won bronze again at the Grand Prix Final. I'm probably going to get for posting this, but I think I was the only skating fan who doubted that Michelle would win in Salt Lake City. Going "coachless" and then not really being as technically sharp as she needed to be was some bad mojo - especially in an Olympic year.

The last few years, it seems like the men have had either a or a hwell: debut senior international season after they win their Junior World Title. We'll see with Vincent.

 

[mrrice]

I think there were hints that Sarah could have a great Olympic year when she won bronze at 2001 Worlds. She then followed that up with a win at Skate Canada and two silvers (Skate America and Trophee Lalique?) and then won bronze again at the Grand Prix Final. I'm probably going to get for posting this, but I think I was the only skating fan who doubted that Michelle would win in Salt Lake City. Going "coachless" and then not really being as technically sharp as she needed to be was some bad mojo - especially in an Olympic year.

The last few years, it seems like the men have had either a or a hwell: debut senior international season after they win their Junior World Title. We'll see with Vincent.

I'll never understand what happened there. When I saw Michelle live at Worlds in 2001, it was the first time I had seen her as a Woman and not a little girl. She seemed to have everything going for her and after her performances at Nationals, I thought she really had a chance. After she won the SP in SLC, I really thought that she was going to win....The rest is history. When it comes Sarah Hughes, I had already seen her skate well as a Junior when she skated at Senior Worlds in 1999. I certainly saw her as a threat when she defeated Maria Butyrskaya at Worlds in 2001 and claimed the Bronze.