2018 Olympic Season: Men's Figure Skating

[Violet Bliss]

It's not quite a fair statement just like that IMO. Nathan was in his debut world championships coming of his 4CC win and the following pressure and expectations. It's tough to say if he really peaked at the wrong time or if he did have a case of nerves (+ boot issues). Now this might happen again, or he might have learned from it and not have the same issue again at Olys. But I'm sure Nathan and team took it as a good lesson and will be better prepared for Olys either way. The fact that he started the season of slower on the quad front is promising I think.

It is an observation and it's nothing fair or unfair about it. Whatever the reason, Nathan did far from his best at Worlds. He's young and inexperienced and of course he needs to and will no doubt learn as he goes along in the Senior rank competing with the big boys. We'll have to wait to observe the developments in this new and important season.

 

[rabbit1234]

Hanyu won the world championship with only 2.28 points difference, but as Hanyu made a mistake, uno made mistakes at the same time.
Hanyu is ranked third in World Team Trophy 2017 next to Uno and Nathan.
Autumn Classic International , Hanyu lost to Javier.
Nathan and Uno will increase quad and further PCS will come up.

 

[nekun]

Nathan peaked in February at the site of the Olympic Games. He won the 'Test Olympics', with most main competitors. That was a very good omen for the things to come.

sorry, I'm half joking here don't take it personaly

18 y.o Patrick Chan won the Olympic test @ 4CC Vancouver over the silver medalist Evan Lysacek , a year later Evan won the Olympic instead


it seem the good omen is silver medalist from 'Olympic test event' tho

Yuzuru himself won the silver medal at GPF 2012/ 2013 Sochi, an Olympic test competition

 

[MaiKatze]

sorry, I'm half joking here don't take it personaly

18 y.o Patrick Chan won the Olympic test @ 4CC Vancouver over the silver medalist Evan Lysacek , a year later Evan won the Olympic instead


it seem the good omen is silver medalist from 'Olympic test event' tho

Yuzuru himself won the silver medal at GPF 2012/ 2013 Sochi, an Olympic test competition

Well...that's good for Yuzuru then.

Joking aside, I think pacing is quite important. Not everyone has their peak in February, 4CC is usually not THAT interesting of an event, and I think Nathan's team did it well last season. I think we can begin to get closer to what happens at the Olympics when the GP's are over and perhaps GPF. Some may have lost their steam and some may have barely started. Also winning GPF....could be a curse, could be a blessing. Everything is possible.

 

[nekun]

Well...that's good for Yuzuru then.

Joking aside, I think pacing is quite important. Not everyone has their peak in February, 4CC is usually not THAT interesting of an event, and I think Nathan's team did it well last season. I think we can begin to get closer to what happens at the Olympics when the GP's are over and perhaps GPF. Some may have lost their steam and some may have barely started. Also winning GPF....could be a curse, could be a blessing. Everything is possible.

during GP series until GPF 2013/2014, both Patrick and Yuzu broke some WR here and there..I thought it's happen to make Olympic more interesting, so I won't surprise if this season the sQuads or even the uncles will break some the WR score too

isn't the men very interesting ? can't said the same thing for ladies tho, coz the gold is Med's

 

[HanDomi]

Hanyu won the world championship with only 2.28 points difference, but as Hanyu made a mistake, uno made mistakes at the same time.
Hanyu is ranked third in World Team Trophy 2017 next to Uno and Nathan.
Autumn Classic International , Hanyu lost to Javier.
Nathan and Uno will increase quad and further PCS will come up.

Still trying to understand where are you going with your "statistics"

 

[Kelly]

I am rooting for Nathan for gold. I hope he can skate SP and FP (with 7 quads?) as he wants to achieve in the Olympics without sacrificing any choreography
he has shown us in the US International Classic. In the end that still is not enough to beat a clean Yuzuru or Shoma then that's the way it is.

I love Nathan's SP and FP this season because they show he can be modern and poetic at the same time which is what I like most from him besides his quads look so light and effortless.

 

[chillgil]

Just for the records, I made my own predictions right in the first post of this thread, so I am definitely not saying that we shouldn't discuss skaters potential of winning medals... au contraire!!!!!!!!

all I said, is that I remembered hearing for many months that a clean skater X was unbeatable... and that of course, if that may sound appealing to some, I don't think it's the reality nowadays for two reasons
1) risk is higher than before so it's harder for any skater to be clean
2) there are many more skaters now who offer a very high BV... as a matter of fact, even the PCS advantage some skaters had in the past is gone because TES is ruling the sport...

so all I said was that in light of previous experience, it may be wise to not make such definite statements.... i didn't say that nobody should make predictions and as a matter of fact, there are pages of predictions in here that were made... I simply commented on that one statement that I felt was no longer as valid as it may have been a couple seasons back ...

if i can be facetious here . . . technically yuzu hasn't had two back to back clean skates since Barcelona in 2015 and back then his score was 330 . . . since then no skater has even come close to that overall score. LP is another story as javi and shoma have gotten close to 219 (that was the previous LP WR right?? im such a bad fan) but if you really wanna look at the numbers no skater has ever beaten a clean hanyu not even hanyu himself, save for his lp in helsinki

 

[4everchan]

if i can be facetious here . . . technically yuzu hasn't had two back to back clean skates since Barcelona in 2015 and back then his score was 330 . . . since then no skater has even come close to that overall score. LP is another story as javi and shoma have gotten close to 219 (that was the previous LP WR right?? im such a bad fan) but if you really wanna look at the numbers no skater has ever beaten a clean hanyu not even hanyu himself, save for his lp in helsinki

There you go. Hence the reason why this statement makes little sense to me. It is not because an athlete had a very outstanding performance once that it will get repeated. We could create all kinds of scenarios that mean nothing. Glad you understand why i don't think the clean hanyu statement is worth much. However, if anything, some people are discussing what makes shoma or nathan or hanyu contenders right now and the thread is evolving. The clean hanyu statement in my opinion only serves to shut down other people's opinions.

 

[chillgil]

There you go. Hence the reason why this statement makes little sense to me. It is not because an athlete had a very outstanding performance once that it will get repeated. We could create all kinds of scenarios that mean nothing. Glad you understand why i don't think the clean hanyu statement is worth much. However, if anything, some people are discussing what makes shoma or nathan or hanyu contenders right now and the thread is evolving. The clean hanyu statement in my opinion only serves to shut down other people's opinions.

yeah but i think it's still valid to point out that if hanyu manages to have 2 clean skates at the olympics what kind of monstrous score is he gonna get? if a 5 quad total program got 330 what will a 7 quad total program get?!? i get chills thinking about it. and if that is the case how will any other skater get close to that when they havent gotten close to that 3 quad lp 330 score with their 5 or 6 quad long program? i mean i get that it kind of shuts the convo down but i am absolutely interested in how anyone will be able to do that, you might be tired of that narrative but it is still a completely valid narrative that deserves to be talked about . . . how many more skaters like hanyu are gonna pop up in the fs world? my guess is itll be decades until we get a skater like him again

 

[chillgil]

The clean hanyu statement in my opinion only serves to shut down other people's opinions.

but dont you see that by trying to shut down the clean hanyu statement you're effectively shutting down mine and other people's opinions that if hanyu is able to put together 2 clean skates he'll win? you're kind of just telling us to stop giving our opinions and analytics because you're tired of hearing it

its not like everybody is saying that he is going to win flat out i think a lot of users have said that other skaters might have a good chance of the OGM but given yuzu's track record its pretty hard to deny that he doesnt produce god like scores when clean

anyway i do feel like we're just repeating ourselves and i feel bad if the thread has gone off track because of me so oops sorry

 

[MaiKatze]

if i may...

i think rabbit1234 is looking at it (accordingly to a previous post) in terms of the broader probability/statistics spectrum. In that sense, an athlete is often seen as good as his best results and also, as bad as his worse results...

In other words, some athletes have a very large window of possible outcomes, and some others a very narrow one... For instance, Medvedeva would have a very narrow window(and it's very high of course) which makes her potential to win very likely statistically...

and actually, in my prediction in this thread, when I mentioned Shoma and Nathan as the ones fighting for gold, I went with the two skaters I personally think may have this year, a collection of higher results, closer from one another, providing that kind of window... as really IMHO the quad race is creating a situation we have never seen at the Olympics before... skaters used to show up with stable and consistent content they had used for years... now they are all trying to bring in new jumps... 5-6 months before the event....

we are in a very exciting phase where the unknown is more of a factor than ever.

Yes, that does make sense. If we're looking at all the scores, and try to find the median of each skater, perhaps that will help us compare realistically. Who wants to do the math? Although I have a feeling we're going to end up with Yuzuru as a winner again. :shock2:

Sorry!

 

[4everchan]

anyway i do feel like we're just repeating ourselves and i feel bad if the thread has gone off track because of me so oops sorry

I am fine with other opinions... i just wanted to state mine.. that's all thank you for agreeing to move on as we don't agree.
I also believe that 2015 is far far away in a judged sport... and that ANYONE from the top 6 doing two clean skates will be on the podium because that's just the thing.... how many people had two clean skates last year at worlds.. nobody from the final flight.... it's getting harder and harder to achieve these things. 2015 NHK (to me that was the best Hanyu... not GPF) is no longer relevant.... it's like Patrick's 2013 Bompart just didn't count anymore when Sochi happened...

All I wish for is an exciting and relatively clean competition. I think the field is deep and many can aspire to the podium... some have better assets than others, that's fine.

But indeed... I disagree... as I do believe that a 5 quad clean Hanyu can be beaten by a 6 or 7 quad Shoma or Nathan... and of course... wow... if everyone lands all these clean quads... LOL what will the judges do???? HAHAHA let's not forget olympic judges have given us surprises in the past.

 

[rabbit1234]

The season started.
The results so far are
http://www.isuresults.com/isujsstat/sb2017-18/sbtsmto.htm

1 319.84 Shoma UNO JPN ISU CS Lombardia Trophy 2017 16.09.2017
2 279.07 Javier FERNANDEZ ESP ISU CS Autumn Classic International 2017 23.09.2017
3 275.04 Nathan CHEN USA ISU CS US Internat. FS Classic 2017 15.09.2017
4 268.24 Yuzuru HANYU JPN ISU CS Autumn Classic International 2017 23.09.2017
5 261.56 Max AARON USA ISU CS US Internat. FS Classic 2017 15.09.2017
6 259.88 Jason BROWN USA ISU CS Lombardia Trophy 2017 16.09.2017

There are only three competitions left for each competitor until the Olympic Games.
2 GPS, 1 GPF.
For every competitor , 319 points are very high, and the score does not go out unless you perform close to the SP and FP no mistake.

 

[Ender]

I am fine with other opinions... i just wanted to state mine.. that's all thank you for agreeing to move on as we don't agree.
I also believe that 2015 is far far away in a judged sport... and that ANYONE from the top 6 doing two clean skates will be on the podium because that's just the thing.... how many people had two clean skates last year at worlds.. nobody from the final flight.... it's getting harder and harder to achieve these things. 2015 NHK (to me that was the best Hanyu... not GPF) is no longer relevant.... it's like Patrick's 2013 Bompart just didn't count anymore when Sochi happened...

All I wish for is an exciting and relatively clean competition. I think the field is deep and many can aspire to the podium... some have better assets than others, that's fine.

But indeed... I disagree... as I do believe that a 5 quad clean Hanyu can be beaten by a 6 or 7 quad Shoma or Nathan... and of course... wow... if everyone lands all these clean quads... LOL what will the judges do???? HAHAHA let's not forget olympic judges have given us surprises in the past.

They all have to deliver first. The numbers of today means nothing tomorrow.
Some folks score good today might fail at the Olympic. And those who mess today might do well at the Olympic.
Men field has always been a splat fest so who knows what will happen.
Will they deliver at the Olympic is another matter lol.

 

[4everchan]

The season started.
The results so far are
http://www.isuresults.com/isujsstat/sb2017-18/sbtsmto.htm

1 319.84 Shoma UNO JPN ISU CS Lombardia Trophy 2017 16.09.2017
2 279.07 Javier FERNANDEZ ESP ISU CS Autumn Classic International 2017 23.09.2017
3 275.04 Nathan CHEN USA ISU CS US Internat. FS Classic 2017 15.09.2017
4 268.24 Yuzuru HANYU JPN ISU CS Autumn Classic International 2017 23.09.2017
5 261.56 Max AARON USA ISU CS US Internat. FS Classic 2017 15.09.2017
6 259.88 Jason BROWN USA ISU CS Lombardia Trophy 2017 16.09.2017

There are only three competitions left for each competitor until the Olympic Games.
2 GPS, 1 GPF.
For every competitor , 319 points are very high, and the score does not go out unless you perform close to the SP and FP no mistake.

you could add Chan's score at Onyx (even if it's not a sanctioned ISU competition.. )which is a combined total of 270.71. Patrick didn't go to Nebelhorn.

He marked many jumps and even zayaked in his LP (174.16). SP had two quads landed but a fall on the 3a. (96.55)

Source from PC Skating Fan blog (from tweets by Sylvia)

 

[chillgil]

.... how many people had two clean skates last year at worlds.. nobody from the final flight....

hey hey hey dont you go forgetting my boy boyang

 

[Roast Toast]

I think this discussion on going clean is important because more than anything else, the ISU will be looking to avoid the backlash that the Men's free/splatfest in Sochi caused. The final podium was perfectly normal for fans of the sport but the demographic that only watches once every 4 years is still in the mindset of fall=loss. We have seen skaters get held up after mistake-ridden programs in the past, but I truly believe that, unless they all bomb, whoever has the cleanest back to back programs on the day will win (perhaps Boyang would need some more help).

And, not to reopen the Yuzu debate because it was kinda going in circles, but I will say that the statement "a clean Hanyu always wins" has lost a lot of the luster it had two years ago. I think anyone will agree that they would have been a hundred times more confident backing him for the gold back then than currently. He always has demonstrated good timing, so I think he can and will do it -- but there really is no guarantee that he will be physically healthy or more comfortable with the new quads by then.

 

[charlotte14]

I think this discussion on going clean is important because more than anything else, the ISU will be looking to avoid the backlash that the Men's free/splatfest in Sochi caused. The final podium was perfectly normal for fans of the sport but the demographic that only watches once every 4 years is still in the mindset of fall=loss. We have seen skaters get held up after mistake-ridden programs in the past, but I truly believe that, unless they all bomb, whoever has the cleanest back to back programs on the day will win (perhaps Boyang would need some more help).

And, not to reopen the Yuzu debate because it was kinda going in circles, but I will say that the statement "a clean Hanyu always wins" has lost a lot of the luster it had two years ago. I think anyone will agree that they would have been a hundred times more confident backing him for the gold back then than currently. He always has demonstrated good timing, so I think he can and will do it -- but there really is no guarantee that he will be physically healthy or more comfortable with the new quads by then.

I think the chance of skating clean back to back for top men is not huge. So I can't predict anything lol.

 

[MaiKatze]

The season started.
The results so far are
http://www.isuresults.com/isujsstat/sb2017-18/sbtsmto.htm

1 319.84 Shoma UNO JPN ISU CS Lombardia Trophy 2017 16.09.2017
2 279.07 Javier FERNANDEZ ESP ISU CS Autumn Classic International 2017 23.09.2017
3 275.04 Nathan CHEN USA ISU CS US Internat. FS Classic 2017 15.09.2017
4 268.24 Yuzuru HANYU JPN ISU CS Autumn Classic International 2017 23.09.2017
5 261.56 Max AARON USA ISU CS US Internat. FS Classic 2017 15.09.2017
6 259.88 Jason BROWN USA ISU CS Lombardia Trophy 2017 16.09.2017

There are only three competitions left for each competitor until the Olympic Games.
2 GPS, 1 GPF.
For every competitor , 319 points are very high, and the score does not go out unless you perform close to the SP and FP no mistake.

Look, I am a huge Shoma Uno Fan and would be ecstatic if he won the Olympic Gold medal. I am terribly biased when it comes to him, because I think he's the best. People on this forum will tell you that I defend him fiercely (perhaps too fiercely) and loyally to the end, probably annoyingly so. But even I think it is premature to take these scores and try to imply that they mean, well... anything at all. It's so early in the season, it's just ONE competition so far, and not even an important one. What would make more sense, imho, is to take all the scores of last season and take the median, so we could have an idea. Or wait until GPF and then look at these scores. It's true that Yuzuru is only at fourth in this ranking, but then he had a World record score in his SP, a score that I assume Shoma won't be able to reach. Perhaps Javier has a slight chance seeing that his SP score is the second highest.

And there are quite a few more competitions, other than the GP's. Nationals, Europeans, 4CC (who knows, who will go there)....so still chances to push these scores.