2018 Olympic Season: Men's Figure Skating

[Interspectator]

all I said, is that I remembered hearing for many months that a clean skater X was unbeatable... and that of course, if that may sound appealing to some, I don't think it's the reality nowadays for two reasons
1) risk is higher than before so it's harder for any skater to be clean
2) there are many more skaters now who offer a very high BV... as a matter of fact, even the PCS advantage some skaters had in the past is gone because TES is ruling the sport...

so all I said was that in light of previous experience, it may be wise to not make such definite statements.... i didn't say that nobody should make predictions and as a matter of fact, there are pages of predictions in here that were made... I simply commented on that one statement that I felt was no longer as valid as it may have been a couple seasons back ...

I don't think the two stances are mutually exclusive.
To say the holder of the current highest scores will win if he skates clean can be true at the same time as one acknowledges the field is closer than before and the rarity of any male skater skating two completely clean programs.
The innumerable variables is what makes the men's field and discussion threads interesting and also somewhat volatile.

 

[Yatagarasu]

Hanyu was not clean in Boston so referring to that as some sort of proof that a 'clean Hanyu does not win' is hilarious.
Using Hanyu's performance post-Boston injury as some sort of 'consistency' barometer is interesting because I could have sworn I read and reread and reread all the explanations about a certain Canadian here and her injury and how it affected her and ... I suppose different skaters, different rules. Not to mention what actually happened during last season, but I guess we'll wave that too.

Not agreeing that a 'clean Hanyu wins' is perfectly normal. I don't agree with that either actually. Olympics are a special thing and who knows how everything will pan out, especially considering that politicking has a huge influence too.

 

[rabbit1234]

Hanyu was not injured at the time of Four Continents Championships

Result is

Nathan CHEN USA ISU Four Continents Championships 2017 19.02.2017 103.12 204.34 307.46 S
Yuzuru HANYU JPN ISU Four Continents Championships 2017 19.02.2017 97.04 206.67 303.71 S
Shoma UNO JPN ISU Four Continents Championships 2017 19.02.2017 100.28 187.77 288.05

Hanyu was not injured at the time of the world team trophy.

Result is

Shoma UNO JPN ISU World Team Trophy 2017 23.04.2017 103.53 198.49 302.02 S
Nathan CHEN USA ISU World Team Trophy 2017 23.04.2017 99.28 185.24 284.52 S
Yuzuru HANYU JPN ISU World Team Trophy 2017 23.04.2017 83.51 200.49 284.00 S

 

[MaiKatze]

Hanyu was not injured at the time of Four Continents Championships

Result is

Nathan CHEN USA ISU Four Continents Championships 2017 19.02.2017 103.12 204.34 307.46 S
Yuzuru HANYU JPN ISU Four Continents Championships 2017 19.02.2017 97.04 206.67 303.71 S
Shoma UNO JPN ISU Four Continents Championships 2017 19.02.2017 100.28 187.77 288.05

Hanyu was not injured at the time of the world team trophy.

Result is

Shoma UNO JPN ISU World Team Trophy 2017 23.04.2017 103.53 198.49 302.02 S
Nathan CHEN USA ISU World Team Trophy 2017 23.04.2017 99.28 185.24 284.52 S
Yuzuru HANYU JPN ISU World Team Trophy 2017 23.04.2017 83.51 200.49 284.00 S

Wasn't the argument that 'clean Hanyu wins', not that 'not-injured Hanyu wins'? He wasn't clean at these competitions. And we know he loses, when he's not, injured or not. Consistency for the Men, ala Med, with these technical layouts, will be a pipe dream anyway.

Yuzuru's problem is nerves. It comes down to his mental state. At Worlds, I think without his faulty SP he wouldn't have skated the LP he did.

 

[Yatagarasu]

Hanyu was not injured at the time of Four Continents Championships.
Hanyu was not injured at the time of the world team trophy.

Hanyu wasn't clean at either 4CC or WTT.

Which is what the statement was about ("a clean Hanyu wins"). I really fail to see what's so difficult about this.

 

[rabbit1234]

Calculation when only looking at good is meaningless.The competence of the competitor, including when it is bad.

 

[MaiKatze]

Calculation when only looking at good is meaningless.The competence of the competitor, including when it is bad.

But how can you realistically look at something that is bad and compare it to....what exactly? A mistake ridden program of a competitor? A clean program of a competitor? Let's take the competitions you mentioned 4CC and WTT. Yuzuru made different mistakes in the SP each time. It's even hard to compare scores between competitions, but you cannot go into it when you take different skaters into account. Your only possibility is to compare clean scores, because you can kind of predict what the points will be. You never know how the judges treat mistake-ridden programs, and it also depends on the mistake itself.

 

[FCSSp4]

Calculation when only looking at good is meaningless.The competence of the competitor, including when it is bad.

Phew I'm glad Yuzuru's pretty competent all things considered. 4CC and WTT aren't as important as Worlds or GPF since he was very capable of delivering in both. The only reason he's lost Worlds is because of injury regardless of he dislikes blaming injuries for losing. That isn't to say that people who win 4CC or WTT but can't win Worlds or GPF aren't competent by the way. Shoma and Nathan delivered in those competitions it just so happened Yuzuru delivered in Worlds this year even more at the time where it really mattered. Had he lost 3rd time in a row I can't even imagine what people would say about him. All things considered he came out of this season with his 4th GPF win, a regained Worlds title and a new world record (plus a couple of golds and silvers here and there). Not bad.

 

[4everchan]

Hanyu wasn't clean at either 4CC or WTT.

Which is what the statement was about ("a clean Hanyu wins"). I really fail to see what's so difficult about this.

I questioned the clean hanyu statement.. you are correct.

I mentioned... look what happened in Boston... I was told he was injured...

I said... look what happened when adding a new quad... i was told he was recovering from injury

Fair enough, but then : that's why people are now showing results of competitions when he was fit (as far as we know) and not winning or being clean. There are a plethora of factors in play now in this very deep field that can create a different situation for any of these skaters.... hence the statement considered by myself (and some others) no longer valid.

I think it's very easy to understand.

 

[4everchan]

But how can you realistically look at something that is bad and compare it to....what exactly? A mistake ridden program of a competitor? A clean program of a competitor? Let's take the competitions you mentioned 4CC and WTT. Yuzuru made different mistakes in the SP each time. It's even hard to compare scores between competitions, but you cannot go into it when you take different skaters into account. Your only possibility is to compare clean scores, because you can kind of predict what the points will be. You never know how the judges treat mistake-ridden programs, and it also depends on the mistake itself.

if i may...

i think rabbit1234 is looking at it (accordingly to a previous post) in terms of the broader probability/statistics spectrum. In that sense, an athlete is often seen as good as his best results and also, as bad as his worse results...

In other words, some athletes have a very large window of possible outcomes, and some others a very narrow one... For instance, Medvedeva would have a very narrow window(and it's very high of course) which makes her potential to win very likely statistically...

and actually, in my prediction in this thread, when I mentioned Shoma and Nathan as the ones fighting for gold, I went with the two skaters I personally think may have this year, a collection of higher results, closer from one another, providing that kind of window... as really IMHO the quad race is creating a situation we have never seen at the Olympics before... skaters used to show up with stable and consistent content they had used for years... now they are all trying to bring in new jumps... 5-6 months before the event....

we are in a very exciting phase where the unknown is more of a factor than ever.

 

[icybear]

My only wish for the Men's this season is that Boyang goes back to the Spiderman SP and threepeats his bronze medal at the Olympics. I just want that program in the Olympic hall of fame :rofl2:

It would definitely appeal to non skating fans who only watch figure skating in the olympics

 

[Interspectator]

But how can you realistically look at something that is bad and compare it to....what exactly? A mistake ridden program of a competitor? A clean program of a competitor? Let's take the competitions you mentioned 4CC and WTT. Yuzuru made different mistakes in the SP each time. It's even hard to compare scores between competitions, but you cannot go into it when you take different skaters into account. Your only possibility is to compare clean scores, because you can kind of predict what the points will be. You never know how the judges treat mistake-ridden programs, and it also depends on the mistake itself.

:thumbsup:

This is why the comparison threads can get so long and involved. So many scenarios and values can be given to any one attribute of a skater.
For example,
You can have a skater who A who has a narrow spread of total scores, say 250-270, but this skater usually has highest scores in the early season
Then skater B who is has a the same spread of scores as skater A but gets his best scores at the end of the season
Then Skater C who has a spread of scores between 260-300 who usually has the higher scores at the middle of the season around GPF
Then Skater D who has a spread of scores between 260-330 who usually has the higher scores around Feburary
--and and a bunch of skaters in between and various mixes of these attributes.
Any one of the imagined skaters above has a chance to beat the others going by their highest and lowest scoring potential. The chances of them scoring their best at any given time of the year is different and they won't necessarily follow their previous season's pattern 100%.

Skaters each do what they can to improve their chances of peaking at the right time. I hope that they each can do their best at the Olympics. -It will be a great show if they do.

 

[rabbit1234]

2017～

Yuzuru HANYU JPN ISU Four Continents Championships 2017 19.02.2017 97.04 206.67 303.71 S
Yuzuru HANYU JPN ISU World Championships 2017 02.04.2017 98.39 223.20 321.59 S
Yuzuru HANYU JPN ISU World Team Trophy 2017 23.04.2017 83.51 200.49 284.00 S
Yuzuru HANYU JPN ISU CS Autumn Classic International 2017 23.09.2017 112.72 155.52 268.24 S

Shoma UNO JPN ISU Four Continents Championships 2017 19.02.2017 100.28 187.77 288.05 S
Shoma UNO JPN ISU World Championships 2017 02.04.2017 104.86 214.45 319.31 S
Shoma UNO JPN ISU World Team Trophy 2017 23.04.2017 103.53 198.49 302.02 S
Shoma UNO JPN ISU CS Lombardia Trophy 2017 17.09.2017 104.87 214.97 319.84 S

Nathan CHEN USA ISU Four Continents Championships 2017 19.02.2017 103.12 204.34 307.46 S
Nathan CHEN USA ISU World Championships 2017 02.04.2017 97.33 193.39 290.72 S
Nathan CHEN USA ISU World Team Trophy 2017 23.04.2017 99.28 185.24 284.52 S
Nathan CHEN USA ISU CS US Internat. FS Classic 2017 17.09.2017 91.80 183.24 275.04 S

Nathan is trying to raise BV.

 

[Yatagarasu]

I questioned the clean hanyu statement.. you are correct.

I mentioned... look what happened in Boston... I was told he was injured...

I said... look what happened when adding a new quad... i was told he was recovering from injury

Fair enough, but then : that's why people are now showing results of competitions when he was fit (as far as we know) and not winning or being clean. There are a plethora of factors in play now in this very deep field that can create a different situation for any of these skaters.... hence the statement considered by myself (and some others) no longer valid.

I think it's very easy to understand.

The statement was 'a clean Hanyu wins'.

What got brought up, and not just by you, were Boston, 4CC and WTT. The issue with that is that he wasn't clean there (for whatever reason). By the sheer fact that he wasn't clean, neither one of those can be used to refute the statement of 'a clean Hanyu wins'.

I have no issues with your belief that 'a clean Hanyu wins' statement is inaccurate. It's just that none of those examples are ones that can be used in support of that for obvious reasons.

 

[Interspectator]

Shoma has a very good chance of getting the gold medal, if one is going by his averaged scores, and his consistency up to the present.
Nathan has a very good chance of getting the gold medal, going by his planned content, number of quads and his artistic programs.
Boyang has a very good chance of getting the gold medal, since he peaks at the end of the season and also has a very high technical content.
Yuzu has a very good chance of getting the gold medal, because he has proven his ability to better his personal bests every year, and each time he does that, it's the highest scores ever.
Fernandez has a good chance of getting the gold medal, because, with the pressure off, he can train his programs to be ultra consistent during the olympics, the lower BV can serve to let him perform the heck out of it and get the highest PCS and GOE
Chan has a good chance of getting the gold medal, because, with the pressure off, he can train his programs to be ultra consistent during the olympics, the lower BV can serve to let him perform the heck out of it and get the highest PCS and GOE

--The Top 6

 

[Neenah16]

2017～

Yuzuru HANYU JPN ISU Four Continents Championships 2017 19.02.2017 97.04 206.67 303.71 S
Yuzuru HANYU JPN ISU World Championships 2017 02.04.2017 98.39 223.20 321.59 S
Yuzuru HANYU JPN ISU World Team Trophy 2017 23.04.2017 83.51 200.49 284.00 S
Yuzuru HANYU JPN ISU CS Autumn Classic International 2017 23.09.2017 112.72 155.52 268.24 S

Shoma UNO JPN ISU Four Continents Championships 2017 19.02.2017 100.28 187.77 288.05 S
Shoma UNO JPN ISU World Championships 2017 02.04.2017 104.86 214.45 319.31 S
Shoma UNO JPN ISU World Team Trophy 2017 23.04.2017 103.53 198.49 302.02 S
Shoma UNO JPN ISU CS Lombardia Trophy 2017 17.09.2017 104.87 214.97 319.84 S

Nathan CHEN USA ISU Four Continents Championships 2017 19.02.2017 103.12 204.34 307.46 S
Nathan CHEN USA ISU World Championships 2017 02.04.2017 97.33 193.39 290.72 S
Nathan CHEN USA ISU World Team Trophy 2017 23.04.2017 99.28 185.24 284.52 S
Nathan CHEN USA ISU CS US Internat. FS Classic 2017 17.09.2017 91.80 183.24 275.04 S

Nathan is trying to raise BV.

While I do appreciate you collecting the information, I admit I don't understand the point you are trying to make here especially with the Nathan is trying to raise BV comment.

And can you please add few spaces or anything to make the number more readable next time. Thanks

 

[Violet Bliss]

2017～

Yuzuru HANYU JPN ISU Four Continents Championships 2017 19.02.2017 97.04 206.67 303.71 S
Yuzuru HANYU JPN ISU World Championships 2017 02.04.2017 98.39 223.20 321.59 S
Yuzuru HANYU JPN ISU World Team Trophy 2017 23.04.2017 83.51 200.49 284.00 S
Yuzuru HANYU JPN ISU CS Autumn Classic International 2017 23.09.2017 112.72 155.52 268.24 S

Shoma UNO JPN ISU Four Continents Championships 2017 19.02.2017 100.28 187.77 288.05 S
Shoma UNO JPN ISU World Championships 2017 02.04.2017 104.86 214.45 319.31 S
Shoma UNO JPN ISU World Team Trophy 2017 23.04.2017 103.53 198.49 302.02 S
Shoma UNO JPN ISU CS Lombardia Trophy 2017 17.09.2017 104.87 214.97 319.84 S

Nathan CHEN USA ISU Four Continents Championships 2017 19.02.2017 103.12 204.34 307.46 S
Nathan CHEN USA ISU World Championships 2017 02.04.2017 97.33 193.39 290.72 S
Nathan CHEN USA ISU World Team Trophy 2017 23.04.2017 99.28 185.24 284.52 S
Nathan CHEN USA ISU CS US Internat. FS Classic 2017 17.09.2017 91.80 183.24 275.04 S

Nathan is trying to raise BV.

From just this bit of data, it's obvious that Nathan needs to know how to peak at the right time more than trying to raise BV.

Both Hanyu and Uno scored significantly higher at the most important event, i.e. Worlds, than the event before and dropped substantially right after at WTT. Nathan, OTOH, dropped significantly in his Worlds scores from the 4CC before it and dropped a few more points after at WTT. IOW, he peaked at the event before Worlds.

What is also noteworthy is how strongly Shoma started this new season, passing his last season's peak at Worlds. We have to wait to see it's an untimely peak or a great base to grow from for the Olympics.

 

[rabbit1234]

Hanyu has never done the SP and FP cleanly in the current layout with quadloop in it. That is his ability to perform.
Raise the level of difficulty this season.
It becomes more difficult to cleanly align SP and FP

 

[Li'Kitsu]

From just this bit of data, it's obvious that Nathan needs to know how to peak at the right time more than trying to raise BV.

It's not quite a fair statement just like that IMO. Nathan was in his debut world championships coming of his 4CC win and the following pressure and expectations. It's tough to say if he really peaked at the wrong time or if he did have a case of nerves (+ boot issues). Now this might happen again, or he might have learned from it and not have the same issue again at Olys. But I'm sure Nathan and team took it as a good lesson and will be better prepared for Olys either way. The fact that he started the season of slower on the quad front is promising I think.

 

[MaiKatze]

Hanyu has never done the SP and FP cleanly in the current layout with quadloop in it. That is his ability to perform.
Raise the level of difficulty this season.
It becomes more difficult to cleanly align SP and FP

And Yuzuru can also win with mistakes. It's not only a clean Yuzuru that wins, but if the mistake is only...mmh, not minor, but perhaps he pops one quad in the LP. He still wins over some of the top 6 skaters. There are two/three (imho, Shoma, Nathan - perhaps Javier) who he won't beat with a mistake, if they are clean. Boyang will be beaten and Patrick, too. Let's not forget that Yuzuru became Olympic Champion with mistakes. He won the GPF - also with mistakes. There can't be too many of them, but it can be done. It's getting much, much harder though and you're right that Yuzuru isn't the most stable skater. I'm not quite sure if I want him to skate a perfect SP at the Olympics, because then the nerves would double.

Nathan peaked in February at the site of the Olympic Games. He won the 'Test Olympics', with most main competitors. That was a very good omen for the things to come.