2018 Olympic Season: Men's Figure Skating

[rabbit1234]

Score when each competitor performs SP and FP cleanly with data of 2016 - 2017 season
Calculated based on each competitor 's BV and each element's season's maximum GOE and PCS

Hanyu
SP TES 63.35+PCS47.35=110.70
FP TES128.39+PCS97.08=225.47
Total 336.17
2017 - 2018 season Rise of BV SP1.26+FP1.98=3.24
336.17+3.24=339.41
Shoma
SP TES61.99+PCS46.74=108.73
FP　TES129.35+PCS94.42=223.77
Total 332.50
2017 - 2018 season Rise of BV SP1.46+FP4.45=5.91
332.50+5.91=338.41

Nathan
SP　TES61.41+PCS43.54=104.95
FP　TES130.59+PCS88.86=219.45
Total 324.40
2017 - 2018 season Rise of BV SP2.17+FP10.00?=12.17?
324.40+12.17?=336.57?

Uno has more room to raise BV, and Nathan and Uno's PCS still have some margins.
There is no big difference in the points of each competitor , and it is unknown who will win even if SP and FP are cleaned.

 

[Ice Dance]

What would make more sense, imho, is to take all the scores of last season and take the median, so we could have an idea.

I doubt it would tell us much either. Shoma added the quad loop mid-season. Nathan changed his FS jump composition 6 times last season. And in general the top guys are so volatile. We know that the same man did not lead the SP and the FS at the GPF, 4CCs, Worlds, or World Team Trophy.

 

[MaiKatze]

I doubt it would tell us much either. Shoma added the quad loop mid-season. Nathan changed his FS jump composition 5 times last season. And in general the top guys are so volatile. We know that the same man did not lead the SP and the FS at the GPF, 4CCs, Worlds, or World Team Trophy.

Very true, I didn't take that into consideration. So it's basically wait until all the pre-Olympic competitions are over - then we have an idea of layouts and form of the skaters....and still won't know who will come out on top.

 

[Neenah16]

Score when each competitor performs SP and FP cleanly with data of 2016 - 2017 season
Calculated based on each competitor 's BV and each element's season's maximum GOE and PCS

Hanyu
SP TES 63.35+PCS47.35=110.70
FP TES128.39+PCS97.08=225.47
Total 336.17
2017 - 2018 season Rise of BV SP1.26+FP 1.98=3.24
336.17+3.24=339.41

Shoma
SP TES61.99+PCS46.74=108.73
FP　TES129.35+PCS94.42=223.77
Total 332.50
2017 - 2018 season Rise of BV SP1.46+FP4.45=5.91
332.50+5.91=338.41

Nathan
SP　TES61.41+PCS43.54=104.95
FP　TES130.59+PCS88.86=219.45
Total 324.40
2017 - 2018 season Rise of BV SP2.17+FP10.00?=12.17?
324.40+12.17?=336.57?

Uno has more room to raise BV, and Nathan and Uno's PCS still have some margins.
There is no big difference in the points of each competitor , and it is unknown who will win even if SP and FP are cleaned.

Thank you for the numbers, may I ask which layouts are you using to calculate the added BV for this season. We don't know what Nathan intends to do with his layout, and I am pretty sure Hanyu's added BV for his FP is more than 1.98 especially since the 4Lz by itself account for more than that.

 

[rabbit1234]

Thank you for the numbers, may I ask which layouts are you using to calculate the added BV for this season. We don't know what Nathan intends to do with his layout, and I am pretty sure Hanyu's added BV for his FP is more than 1.98 especially since the 4Lz by itself account for more than that.

If Hanyu introduced quadlutz

2017 - 2018 season Rise of BV SP1.26+FP8.30=9.56
336.17+9.56=345.73

However, the probability that Hanyu can execute FP without mistakes will be very low. Because Hanyu is not good at lutz and the probability of triplelutz is not high either.

Nathan's layout is 7 quad assumption.

 

[Altie]

If Hanyu introduced quadlutz

2017 - 2018 season Rise of BV SP1.26+FP8.30=9.56
336.17+9.56=345.73

However, the probability that Hanyu can execute FP without mistakes will be very low. Because Hanyu is not good at lutz and the probability of triplelutz is not high either.

Nathan's layout is 7 quad assumption.

Hanyu is not good at Lutz ?
Well, it's true he's had issues with the lutz in the past (probably due to the fact that it was his last jump and that he had stamina problems), but lately ? If I'm not mistaken, he's had a 100 % success ratio on his triple Lutz last season - and you don't put the jump you don't trust as your last jump in your FS layout, quite the contrary...
Plus, rumors say the quad Lutz training is going well - but I guess, we'll have to wait for Cup or Russia to gauge if the 4 Lz is going to go as smoothly as the 4Lo did last year, or not.
One thing is sure : I really wouldn't say that "the probablity that Hanyu does the 4Lz without any mistake" is low

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Look, I am a huge Shoma Uno Fan and would be ecstatic if he won the Olympic Gold medal. I am terribly biased when it comes to him, because I think he's the best. People on this forum will tell you that I defend him fiercely (perhaps too fiercely) and loyally to the end, probably annoyingly so. But even I think it is premature to take these scores and try to imply that they mean, well... anything at all. It's so early in the season, it's just ONE competition so far, and not even an important one. What would make more sense, imho, is to take all the scores of last season and take the median, so we could have an idea. Or wait until GPF and then look at these scores. It's true that Yuzuru is only at fourth in this ranking, but then he had a World record score in his SP, a score that I assume Shoma won't be able to reach. Perhaps Javier has a slight chance seeing that his SP score is the second highest.

And there are quite a few more competitions, other than the GP's. Nationals, Europeans, 4CC (who knows, who will go there)....so still chances to push these scores.

I think it's worth noting, however, that Uno has scored over 300 in his past 4 competitions. Hanyu obviously has much greater scoring potential, but Uno's way more reliable. It's quite impressive that Uno has already managed to adapt to a 5-quad layout so quickly. Though obviously still too early to determine if Uno can sustain this momentum throughout the season.

 

[MaiKatze]

I think it's worth noting, however, that Uno has scored over 300 in his past 4 competitions. Hanyu obviously has much greater scoring potential, but Uno's way more reliable. It's quite impressive that Uno has already managed to adapt to a 5-quad layout so quickly. Though obviously still too early to determine if Uno can sustain this momentum throughout the season.

Shoma is on an upwards trend, that is true. I never would've guessed that Shoma would beat his Worlds scores at his first competition of the season and have new PB's in September. If he continues to skate cleanly, the scores will rise and the judges will start to reward consistency. I'm just careful to declare him a consistent skater, because he wasn't in the last two seasons. The good thing about Shoma is that he learned from his mistakes in the past, especially his first Worlds. Even if Shoma makes mistakes, he tries his best to not get that in the way of the program. His focus and steely mind is actually his most dangerous weapon. But at the Olympics - maybe even he will face the pressure. I wish he can stay calm, but it's the biggest event of all only coming every 4 years. A consistent Shoma...... I don't even want to think about how some will react to that.

That makes me think of a video from Helsinki where Shoma is warming up backstage when Yuzuru's World record score is announced. The way he reacted - he didn't mind at all. He just said, great Japan has the three spots for the Olympics. It didn't faze him. Javier said in an interview afterwards that Yuzuru and Shoma's scores affected him. So, I guess what I'm trying to say is that there are a lot of factors coming together. Placement in the Short Program, Skating Order in the long. And that's something we cannot predict.

 

[rabbit1234]

Javier
SP　TES61.50+PCS48.26=109.76
FP　TES116.36+PCS95.70=212.06
Total 321.82
2017 - 2018 season Rise of BV ?

Chan
SP　TES61.11+PCS48.02=109.13
FP　TES115.15+PCS95.14=210.29
Total 319.42
2017 - 2018 season Rise of BV ?

Boyang
SP　TES59.90+PCS41.86=101.76
FP　TES119.85+PCS86.00=205.85
Total 307.61
2017 - 2018 season Rise of BV ?

 

[rabbit1234]

Hanyu's FP's PCS 97.08 is due to what he did not make a mistake.
At competitions other than world championships, Hanyu's FP's PCS is 94 points or less.
His advantage is gone when it falls.

 

[rabbit1234]

PCS

Shoma UNO JPN ISU CS Lombardia Trophy 2017 92.10
Yuzuru HANYU JPN ISU CS Autumn Classic International 2017 89.50
Nathan CHEN USA ISU CS US Internat. FS Classic 2017 88.00

PCS tips if it fails.

 

[wonderlen3000]

Yuzu ...please please please ...do not change your jump layout or introduce any more quad (2016 W nightmare). What he has 4Lo, 4S x2 & 4T is more than enough to win, but of course he has to skate clean. Wish him best luck in skating like GPF 2015 fashion.
If the judges get their head out of cloud nine, no one can touch Yuzu on GOE or PCS. I think he was low ball on GOE at world LP and judges are leaving room for the top two, Shoma and Fernandez to skate clean.

My dream podium will be Yuzu, Boyann and Jarvie. Yuzu will face the most pressure going as defending World and Olym champions, as well as the first male since Dick Button to go for 2nd gold.

I would rank jumps GOE like this: Yuzu > Boyang > NathFerChan > Shoma & PCS: Yuzu > FernChan > Shoma > BoyanNathan.
I am surprise how much Shoma get away with his prerotation and borderline underotation and all those wild scratchy landing. If ladies were jumping and landing like him, they be dinged with << for sure.

But realistically speaking BV wise Yuzu> Nathan> Boyang > Shoma> Fernandez, Chan. Don't think Fernandez and Chan will add anymore quad.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Shoma is on an upwards trend, that is true. I never would've guessed that Shoma would beat his Worlds scores at his first competition of the season and have new PB's in September. If he continues to skate cleanly, the scores will rise and the judges will start to reward consistency. I'm just careful to declare him a consistent skater, because he wasn't in the last two seasons. The good thing about Shoma is that he learned from his mistakes in the past, especially his first Worlds. Even if Shoma makes mistakes, he tries his best to not get that in the way of the program. His focus and steely mind is actually his most dangerous weapon. But at the Olympics - maybe even he will face the pressure. I wish he can stay calm, but it's the biggest event of all only coming every 4 years. A consistent Shoma...... I don't even want to think about how some will react to that.

That makes me think of a video from Helsinki where Shoma is warming up backstage when Yuzuru's World record score is announced. The way he reacted - he didn't mind at all. He just said, great Japan has the three spots for the Olympics. It didn't faze him. Javier said in an interview afterwards that Yuzuru and Shoma's scores affected him. So, I guess what I'm trying to say is that there are a lot of factors coming together. Placement in the Short Program, Skating Order in the long. And that's something we cannot predict.

Well, we can't really use the "for the past two seasons" argument when talking about his consistency, since there is such a huge difference - almost 25 points - in scores between his 2016-2017 season (average score: 288.06) and his 2015-2016 season (average score: 263.07).

However, in his past TEN competitions, Uno's scored 279.34 or higher. That's HUGE. Shoma isn't consistent in the sense that he's absolutely pristine (or close to it) all the time, but no male skater is. But he doesn't do silly point-costing errors like pops, and goes for huge difficulty, and thus scores consistently well. The fact that he's expanded his arsenal to include the 4S only adds to his versatility and base value.

I mean, he must have heard all the whining about his lutz edge that he's like... augh... I'll just replace it with a 4S and then nobody can say anything! Plus it'll also silence the critics who think I can't do a 4S.

Interesting you mentioned Javier being affected backstage by the remarks. Hanyu's also mentioned that he scrutinizes the scores and results of his competitors. Shoma strikes me as someone who doesn't get caught up in what others do (maybe if/when he win Worlds or the Olympics that could change, as the pressure is much more intense on Hanyu/Fernandez). But he seems to be very much about doing his own thing. Coming 2nd at Worlds last year might have been a blessing since all eyes are narrowed on the 2 World champs in the past quadrennial whose gold it is to lose.

 

[Li'Kitsu]

PCS

Shoma UNO JPN ISU CS Lombardia Trophy 2017 92.10
Yuzuru HANYU JPN ISU CS Autumn Classic International 2017 89.50
Nathan CHEN USA ISU CS US Internat. FS Classic 2017 88.00

PCS tips if it fails.

Dude, I even think that the PCS gap is generally decreasing too, but trying to proof how little cushion Yuzu has there by posting numbers that show that Shoma got only 2.6 more in PCS for what was basically a clean skate compared to Yuzu being a complete mess... yeah, that's kind of not helping your case.

 

[MaiKatze]

Well, we can't really use the "for the past two seasons" argument when talking about his consistency, since there is such a huge difference - almost 25 points - in scores between his 2016-2017 season (average score: 288.06) and his 2015-2016 season (average score: 263.07).

However, in his past TEN competitions, Uno's scored 279.34 or higher. That's HUGE. Shoma isn't consistent in the sense that he's absolutely pristine (or close to it) all the time, but no male skater is. But he doesn't do silly point-costing errors like pops, and goes for huge difficulty, and thus scores consistently well. The fact that he's expanded his arsenal to include the 4S only adds to his versatility and base value.

I mean, he must have heard all the whining about his lutz edge that he's like... augh... I'll just replace it with a 4S and then nobody can say anything! Plus it'll also silence the critics who think I can't do a 4S.

Interesting you mentioned Javier being affected backstage by the remarks. Hanyu's also mentioned that he scrutinizes the scores and results of his competitors. Shoma strikes me as someone who doesn't get caught up in what others do (maybe if/when he win Worlds or the Olympics that could change, as the pressure is much more intense on Hanyu/Fernandez). But he seems to be very much about doing his own thing. Coming 2nd at Worlds last year might have been a blessing since all eyes are narrowed on the 2 World champs in the past quadrennial whose gold it is to lose.

Shoma is surely lucky in that he is getting shielded by Yuzuru. It can be an advantage (pressure on Yuzuru/not so much focus on Shoma) or not (curse/always overshadowed/second best). Coming from behind is always easier. That's why I think it's mighty hard to repeat the Olympic Gold and this time, it will really only happen without (big) mistakes from Yuzuru. And that is pressure of a different kind. I'm not so sure he can handle it. I want it very much, but...you know. Imagine him having a huge score and a clean SP and skating last in the LP. Yuzuru starts to pop jumps when he's nervous and I cannot imagine the top five all bombing or another Sochi. So it's between Yuzuru and Javier? Who knows. It would've been interesting how Shoma and Yuzuru would've done if Machida had continued his career. And if he would've joined the quad race.

Shoma usually steps out, overturns or falls, but I think his most common mistake is the step out. Seeing skaters pop jumps is always so *argh*!! We know they can do it...a frustrating sight indeed. Concerning Shoma's consistency, let's wait and see. I hope he just stays away from the Lutz. I am not of the opinion he should just add it and fail if he's not 90% sure it works. It ruins the quality of the whole performance and it's not worth the few more points he might get, if he's lucky. But that's just, you know, my opinion.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Dude, I even think that the PCS gap is generally decreasing too, but trying to proof how little cushion Yuzu has there by posting numbers that show that Shoma got only 2.6 more in PCS for what was basically a clean skate compared to Yuzu being a complete mess... yeah, that's kind of not helping your case.

Firstly, these were two different competitions. Also, Hanyu's FS PCS was VERY much overscored at Autumn Classic and everyone knows it. I don't think every ISU judge will be so kind as Kenji Amako to give a skate like that 9.00+ in all PCS, including 9.50 for Performance. It's ironic, because there was so much complaining about the Lombardia scores just prior to the ACI....

Judging panel at Lombardia: "Nobody can give out generous scores like we can!"
Judging panel at at Autumn Classic: "Hold my beer."

Dude, even Yatagarasu said they'd only give 82 PCS for it, compared to the 89.50 it received. (And yes, I'm still reeling from the shock... )

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Shoma is surely lucky in that he is getting shielded by Yuzuru. It can be an advantage (pressure on Yuzuru/not so much focus on Shoma) or not (curse/always overshadowed/second best). Coming from behind is always easier. That's why I think it's mighty hard to repeat the Olympic Gold and this time, it will really only happen without (big) mistakes from Yuzuru. And that is pressure of a different kind. I'm not so sure he can handle it. I want it very much, but...you know. Imagine him having a huge score and a clean SP and skating last in the LP. Yuzuru starts to pop jumps when he's nervous and I cannot imagine the top five all bombing or another Sochi. So it's between Yuzuru and Javier? Who knows. It would've been interesting how Shoma and Yuzuru would've done if Machida had continued his career. And if he would've joined the quad race.

Shoma usually steps out, overturns or falls, but I think his most common mistake is the step out. Seeing skaters pop jumps is always so *argh*!! We know they can do it...a frustrating sight indeed. Concerning Shoma's consistency, let's wait and see. I hope he just stays away from the Lutz. I am not of the opinion he should just add it and fail if he's not 90% sure it works. It ruins the quality of the whole performance and it's not worth the few more points he might get, if he's lucky. But that's just, you know, my opinion.

Well, he could go for the quad lutz (even with an e) simply to troll his critics, and rack up more points.

I think Shoma's playing it smart with the lutz. He knows that the judges are not quite certain about the edge. An easier triple with solid GOE is less risky than a lutz that could be called depending on the tech specialist. Although he should replace the 3S with a 3L for a little higher BV.

 

[narcissa]

Firstly, these were two different competitions. Also, Hanyu's FS PCS was VERY much overscored at Autumn Classic and everyone knows it. I don't think every ISU judge will be so kind as Kenji Amako to give a skate like that 9.00+ in all PCS, including 9.50 for Performance.

Overscored or not, it is an official competition and it gives a baseline PCS for similar performances (not that I wish for Yuzuru to have any similar performances the rest of the season). So it may be generous but I doubt it would deviate very far from this baseline. Just like Kaetlyn's cleanish/7-triple free skates will probably start in the low- to mid- 140's this season forward. But whenever someone complains about overscoring with Yuzuru I think the placements are all still right.

 

[Li'Kitsu]

Firstly, these were two different competitions. Also, Hanyu's FS PCS was VERY much overscored at Autumn Classic and everyone knows it. I don't think every ISU judge will be so kind as Kenji Amako to give a skate like that 9.00+ in all PCS, including 9.50 for Performance. It's ironic, because there was so much complaining about the Lombardia scores just prior to the ACI....

Judging panel at Lombardia: "Nobody can give out generous scores like we can!"
Judging panel at at Autumn Classic: "Hold my beer."

Dude, even Yatagarasu said they'd only give 82 PCS for it, compared to the 89.50 it received. (And yes, I'm still reeling from the shock... )

What has that to do with what I wrote though?

And it is amazing that all of a sudden you disagree with judges. Normally you do nothing but point the finger at people who question judges scores, and preach how the protocols can never be wrong. How could anyone for example question an edge call on Yuzus flip? But alas, the teddy bear can state for ~a fact~ that Yuzus PCS must have been overscored. Eh, noted.

(PS: for the record - would I personally not award 89 PCS for that performance? You bet. Do I still think this post looks hypocritical compared to what you usually post? You bet.)

 

[Neenah16]

Firstly, these were two different competitions. Also, Hanyu's FS PCS was VERY much overscored at Autumn Classic and everyone knows it. I don't think every ISU judge will be so kind as Kenji Amako to give a skate like that 9.00+ in all PCS, including 9.50 for Performance. It's ironic, because there was so much complaining about the Lombardia scores just prior to the ACI....

Judging panel at Lombardia: "Nobody can give out generous scores like we can!"
Judging panel at at Autumn Classic: "Hold my beer."

Dude, even Yatagarasu said they'd only give 82 PCS for it, compared to the 89.50 it received. (And yes, I'm still reeling from the shock... )

Since we are discussing the men's chances at the Olympics, I think the important thing to note from these numbers is the judges tendencies when scoring each of the men. This will give us an indication of how scoring will be throughout the season.