2017-18 State of U.S. Men's Figure Skating

[noskates]

I liked Javi's performance mostly for the potential it exhibits. It was clearly an off-competition for him. He didn't look right from the SP through the LP but the man still has talent and grace and interprets the music maybe in the top 4 in the world.

Vincent, to me, is still rough cut. I saw him "live" when he won Juniors and he had much more personality on the ice than he does now. I agree with whoever said maybe he's concentrating on the quads more than the presentation. I really enjoyed Han Yan's skates this weekend. He's had some struggles in the past but looks like maybe he's putting it all together finally.

Right now I think my favorites for the OGM are between Kolyada and Shoma. But like the US Nats, the OGM is going to come down to whoever skates perfectly clean - or the cleanest. Any of the top men have a propensity to make little mistakes and the field is too deep to get away with that. And I truly feel the Gold Medal winner will have to have more than just quads!

 

[Mathman]

But Zagitova´s basic skating skills and IN and PE are not strong. Yes, she has a lot of TR, but it´s quantity, not quality.
Her PCS should be 10 to 15 points back from the top tier skaters. In reality, it is more than the top tier skaters right out of the gate.

Vincent´s PCS are 20 points behind [the top men].

I am not sure why we are comparing Zagitova with Vincent Zhou. But if you scale the PCSs of the two by the iSU factoring, Zagitova is ahead of Zhou by about 6 points total (LP, all components), This is not alarming, and i doubt that Vincent is losing any sleep over it. Obviously Vincent is working hard to realize his Olympic dream, as all skaters are.

I agree 100% with the following:

Vincent is messy, which affects GOE and PCS. Once he cleans up a little bit, with that base value, he will score big in both PCS and GOE.

 

[Icey]

For a moment, I thought I was in the wrong thread. So much discussion about Zag and Javier.

 

[ask]

I am not sure why we are comparing Zagitova with Vincent Zhou. But if you scale the PCSs of the two by the iSU factoring, Zagitova is ahead of Zhou by about 6 points total (LP, all components), This is not alarming, and i doubt that Vincent is losing any sleep over it. Obviously Vincent is working hard to realize his Olympic dream, as all skaters are.

I agree 100% with the following:

She got 68. 68/1.6*2 = 85
10 points higher in LP. He got 75.

Who do you think has better skating skills in absolute scale? Skating skills doesnt have a women scale and men scale.

 

[yyyskate]

I just read, Zagi's PCS rised from 62 in junior to 68 in Senior debut with exactly the same program.
Vincent's PCS is from 74+ in junior to 75 in Senior debut with a 2 more quad program.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I just read, Zagi's PCS rised from 62 in junior to 68 in Senior debut with exactly the same program.

Yuna Kim went from 61.52 ('09 Skate America) to 71.76 ('10 Olympics) with exactly the same program.

 

[karne]

fftopic:

Why are we talking ladies and other irrelevant stuff?

We should be talking about Max's supercute IceTalk interview!

 

[yyyskate]

Yuna Kim went from 61.52 ('09 Skate America) to 71.76 ('10 Olympics) with exactly the same program.

your post proved my point, that is over a season, Yuna was leading a whole season, and was perfect in OG, and mistakes in the first GP in SA. if you think that 10 points increase in PCS is not deserved, well good for you.
Yet Zagi is the same clean program from junior world to senior debut.
BTW why you wanna use Yuna to prove your point, why don't you use Sot as an example, whose PCS skyrocketed by what 15 points overnight? I guess compare to Sot, Zagi‘s case is nothing. Should be a much suited argument for you.

EDIT: I am done with this topic, won't rely. my point is clear give Zagi's case to make a comparison to Vincent, whatever conclusion people might have is up to them. As for very-well known Yuna fan vs hater fight, I'm OUT.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

BTW why you wanna use Yuna to prove your point, why don't you use Sot as an example, whose PCS skyrocketed by what 15 points overnight? I guess compare to Sot, Zagi‘s case is nothing. Should be a much suited argument for you.

Because you are implying that massive PCS rises are a strictly Russian phenomenon, and they are not.

Vincent this year is not competing against Vincent at Junior Worlds, and Alina at CoC was not competing against Alina at Junior Worlds. The skaters are judged on their merits, relative to the skaters they are competing against.

 

[yyyskate]

Because you are implying that massive PCS rises are a strictly Russian phenomenon, and they are not.

Yes, it is not a strictly Russian phenomenon, which I honestly did not imply, but use Yuna as a case to prove it is not strictly Russian, is perhaps the weakest case you can ever found.
Like I said, I proposed the comparison, and people draw their own conclusion, and You have given yours.

 

[Jammers]

your post proved my point, that is over a season, Yuna was leading a whole season, and was perfect in OG, and mistakes in the first GP in SA. if you think that 10 points increase in PCS is not deserved, well good for you.
Yet Zagi is the same clean program from junior world to senior debut.
BTW why you wanna use Yuna to prove your point, why don't you use Sot as an example, whose PCS skyrocketed by what 15 points overnight? I guess compare to Sot, Zagi‘s case is nothing. Should be a much suited argument for you.

EDIT: I am done with this topic, won't rely. my point is clear give Zagi's case to make a comparison to Vincent, whatever conclusion people might have is up to them. As for very-well known Yuna fan vs hater fight, I'm OUT.

Not only that but Yuna by 2009 had four great years on the Senior GP to get those high PCS scores while Zagitova had one year on the JGP and now is getting higher PCS right out of the box then some veteran skaters who are much better performers.

 

[Tavi...]

Hi Mods - I know you’re busy, but when you have time could you please move the posts discussing Vincent's, Zagitova’s, and Yuna’s PCS to a new thread? I can see that some people are still very interested in the topic, but whenever I open this thread lately, I get disappointed when I realize there are no new comments about the state of the US men. Thank you so much.

 

[yyyskate]

Not only that but Yuna by 2009 had four great years on the Senior GP to get those high PCS scores while Zagitova had one year on the JGP and now is getting higher PCS right out of the box then some veteran skaters who are much better performers.

Okay use Yuna again
Yuna's 2006 world junior champion SP(Roxanne Tango) is exactly the same SP program Yuna used in her 2006 Skate Canada senior debut (comparable to Zagi's same FS from junior to senior situation)
Yuna PCS at junior word is 25.32
Yuna's PCS at her SC senior debut is 24.84
both Yuna's Roxanne Tango SP are clean in junior world and senior debut SC with higher TES in SC.

here is Zagi's
2017 junior world vs 2017 COC senior debut same Don Quixote FS program(both clean)
2017 junior world TES 75.81 PCS 62.21
2017 COC senior debut TES 76.09 pCS 68.35

Here is Yuna's (better format for comparison)
2006 junior world TES 35.54 PCS 25.32
2006 SC TES 37.84 PCS 24.84

Here is Vincent FS (different FS, 3 quad vs 5 quad)
2017 Junior world TES 104.66 PCS 74.58
2017 COC TES 102.35 PCS 75.08

 

[andromache]

What do we all think of Jason's and Max's chances at GPF this season?

Out of top 6 at Worlds - Hanyu, Javi, Patrick, Shoma, Boyang, and Nathan - all of whom were probably everyone's best guesses to make the GPF this season, three are now out of the running for GPF.

Conventional wisdom suggests that Shoma and Nathan are all but locks for GPF, and with one silver and another chance to medal at Skate America, Boyang has an excellent shot as well. Of the three spots NOT getting taken by former/reigning world champions, Kolyada definitely has one, which leaves 2 spots that are still wiiiiiide open.

Max Aaron will be going head to head with other GP bronze medalist Samarin, either of whom could earn a spot in France by placing 2nd (I don't see Shoma NOT winning there). It's also not outside the realm of possibility that two bronze medals will get either man there - those two COULD both be battling with Bychenko for a spot in France, depending on how his LP goes.

With a silver medal at Skate Canada, Jason has a spot within his grasp, depending on how his LP goes at NHK. I assume he will skate well enough for 3rd, with a real shot at 1st or 2nd considering Voronov's and Bychenko's histories of inconsistency. And a silver + bronze will be enough to qualify. He's very nearly there, which would be huge for him.

 

[Mathman]

I just read, Zagi's PCS rised from 62 in junior to 68 in Senior debut with exactly the same program.
Vincent's PCS is from 74+ in junior to 75 in Senior debut with a 2 more quad program.

Ok. But Evgenia Nedvedeva is the premier ladies skater of the world, while Vicent Zhou is in contention for hopefully making the U.S. team this year. I guess i am not seeing the point of this comparison.

Now, Vincent Zhou versus Yuna Kim, OK, that makes sense.

 

[yyyskate]

Ok. But Evgenia Nedvedeva is the premier ladies skater of the world, while Vicent Zhou is in contention for hopefully making the U.S. team this year. I guess i am not seeing the point of this comparison.

Now, Vincent Zhou versus Yuna Kim, OK, that makes sense.

Please read the few posts regarding this issue carefully,

Evgenia Med never was mentioned here.

the couple of posts here regarding Vincent's PCS (not rise suddenly as Zagi's PCS on senior debut with similar background, both junior world champ of 2017) is not difficult to understand.

Once again please read and understand post first.

I mentioned Yuna's senior debut as a very comparable case to Zagi (same program, both clean), to show that Yuna's PCS is about the same (even a bit lower) yet, Zagi's rised significantly.
I also quoted Vincent's scores, similar to Yuna's case, which is pretty much the same PCS as junior.

 

[concorde]

What do we all think of Jason's and Max's chances at GPF this season?

Out of top 6 at Worlds - Hanyu, Javi, Patrick, Shoma, Boyang, and Nathan - all of whom were probably everyone's best guesses to make the GPF this season, three are now out of the running for GPF.

Conventional wisdom suggests that Shoma and Nathan are all but locks for GPF, and with one silver and another chance to medal at Skate America, Boyang has an excellent shot as well. Of the three spots NOT getting taken by former/reigning world champions, Kolyada definitely has one, which leaves 2 spots that are still wiiiiiide open.

Max Aaron will be going head to head with other GP bronze medalist Samarin, either of whom could earn a spot in France by placing 2nd (I don't see Shoma NOT winning there). It's also not outside the realm of possibility that two bronze medals will get either man there - those two COULD both be battling with Bychenko for a spot in France, depending on how his LP goes.

With a silver medal at Skate Canada, Jason has a spot within his grasp, depending on how his LP goes at NHK. I assume he will skate well enough for 3rd, with a real shot at 1st or 2nd considering Voronov's and Bychenko's histories of inconsistency. And a silver + bronze will be enough to qualify. He's very nearly there, which would be huge for him.

Unless something unforeseen happens, Nathan is a lock for both GPF and an Olympic spot. So let's take him out of the equation.

The race for the remaining 2 Olympic spots is pretty much a big ?? Between Max, Vincent, Adam, and Jason. I think it will pretty much come down to as which way the wind blowing on the day the final decision is made. All are doing well but no one is consistently above or below the pack.

Now for GPF, I agree Jason is in the lead due to his silver at SC. But the ice is slippery and Jason has one skate left before it is lock and standing in his way is Adam who I think has the technical advantage going into the free skate.

 

[Mathman]

Please read the few posts regarding this issue carefully,...

Oh, sorry. Not only that, but I intended to quote the post of "Ask," instead of yours. I can't seem to keep my Russian superstar ladies straight on this thread.

 

[karne]

What do we all think of Jason's and Max's chances at GPF this season?

Out of top 6 at Worlds - Hanyu, Javi, Patrick, Shoma, Boyang, and Nathan - all of whom were probably everyone's best guesses to make the GPF this season, three are now out of the running for GPF.

Conventional wisdom suggests that Shoma and Nathan are all but locks for GPF, and with one silver and another chance to medal at Skate America, Boyang has an excellent shot as well. Of the three spots NOT getting taken by former/reigning world champions, Kolyada definitely has one, which leaves 2 spots that are still wiiiiiide open.

Max Aaron will be going head to head with other GP bronze medalist Samarin, either of whom could earn a spot in France by placing 2nd (I don't see Shoma NOT winning there). It's also not outside the realm of possibility that two bronze medals will get either man there - those two COULD both be battling with Bychenko for a spot in France, depending on how his LP goes.

With a silver medal at Skate Canada, Jason has a spot within his grasp, depending on how his LP goes at NHK. I assume he will skate well enough for 3rd, with a real shot at 1st or 2nd considering Voronov's and Bychenko's histories of inconsistency. And a silver + bronze will be enough to qualify. He's very nearly there, which would be huge for him.

Honestly, I think Jason and Adam both need to realise the gigantic free kick they've been given here with the way the NHK field has turned out. Max and Vincent wound up together at two of the toughest fields in the competition and Jason and Adam have somehow ended up at the weakest. Their thinking should be to capitalise.

I'm not sure if two bronzes will be enough for Max. But at CoC he did give away some points in the SP and a few in the FS that he admitted to wanting to fix, which could easily boost him up a few numbers (that short clean should be topping 90 for sure).

The wild card in France will be Fernandez. Out of the running but if he skates well could very much mess up everyone else's plans. Max could definitely medal in this field, but it will be hard, hard work.

And then of course there's the question of what the TP will be like in France...

Now for GPF, I agree Jason is in the lead due to his silver at SC. But the ice is slippery and Jason has one skate left before it is lock and standing in his way is Adam who I think has the technical advantage going into the free skate.

I don't think Adam has a technical advantage going into the free skate at all.

 

[rabbit1234]

What do we all think of Jason's and Max's chances at GPF this season?

http://www.isuresults.com/events/gp2017/gpsmen.pdf

There is a possibility of GPF in VORONOV or BYCHENKO.
In the NHK trophy first place competitor, the possibility of GPF is high.
For Jason and Adam, I think that the result of today's FP is very important.