2017-18 State of U.S. Ladies Skating

[Gullygirl84]

We truly have no idea who will be on the team at this point. Mirai could be a good choice for the SP because she doesn't do a 2A. Karen is capable of skating a great LP. However, it's entirely possible that neither make it to the Olympics.

I feel like Mirai's sp layout is a little too high risk, high reward at this point to consider her to skate it for the team event (if she makes the olympic team. maybe if we saw it skated more cleanly at nationals..). She has also been getting a ! on her lutz in the sp (though she rotated it/got no edge call on her LP lutz in Russia and Japan). I think they should consider putting the loop in her sp, she's been consistent with it in the LP. It seems too early to figure out how the team event could potentially be split at this point, I'm guessing we'll know more when we see what form Karen/Ashley (and Bradie? Though I still think she's a longer shot than the others) are in at Skate America, plus what kind of form everyone is in at Nationals.

 

[johnsmith72]

I feel like Mirai's sp layout is a little too high risk, high reward at this point to consider her to skate it for the team event (if she makes the olympic team. maybe if we saw it skated more cleanly at nationals..). She has also been getting a ! on her lutz in the sp (though she rotated it/got no edge call on her LP lutz in Russia and Japan). I think they should consider putting the loop in her sp, she's been consistent with it in the LP. It seems too early to figure out how the team event could potentially be split at this point, I'm guessing we'll know more when we see what form Karen/Ashley (and Bradie? Though I still think she's a longer shot than the others) are in at Skate America, plus what kind of form everyone is in at Nationals.

Mirai needs to do the loop instead of the lutz in the short program. I hope this doesn't turn out like a Gracie's team situation where putting her flip in the sp cost many titles.

 

[brightphoton]

And you're going to tell me that Ashley, who doesn't really do arm variations

I tell you, Ashley don't get no respect
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q4JdDWBqjbg&t=1m20s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q4JdDWBqjbg&t=2m56s

That's not even getting into our sport's newfound obsession with arm variations ...

 

[artsciboy]

Yes, she faced the most brutal panel.
But she was ranked 7th in the short and 4th in the free. Not a medal color at all. The only reason that she medaled is because others had one terrible program, like Marin and Anna.

And she's not equal to every lady in terms of planned content.
Take Zagitova, who does all her jumps in the second half, most with rippons, and repeats lutz and flip.
And you're going to tell me that Ashley, who does many of her jumps in the first half, doesn't really do arm variations, and repeats flip and loop, has the same planned content?
Zagitova also does a 3Lz-3Lo combo which Ashley only did once, at 2008 nationals. Ashley's been doing 3F-3T for a while, which is what Zhenya does. But Zhenya has much harder content for the rest of the program.

And by the way, Zhenya's BV is 62.33 to Ashley's 62.44. So this nonsense about how all of the other ladies have harder planned programs than Ashley's is absolutely ridiculous. Ashley just has to rotate and get her levels. If she does, she is totally in the mix with the Russian wunderkinds.

 

[loopy1217]

No other US lady has a chance, unfortunately. Only Ashley, Karen, Mirai, and Mariah had two scheduled GP events. In a field this fight, you have to at least have one bronze and a gold to get into the final. Only Ashley has gotten a medal. Karen doesn’t have enough points even if she wins SA. It’s unfortunate.

Since this is my first time following the whole GP, I was wondering if this would shift the scoring between Ashley and Karen in SA. like even if Karen and Ashley both skate clean, Karen might not win it because the judges want Ashley to win and (possibly) get to GPF?

If you were the coach/strategist for the US Team, for the team event at the Olympics. What would be your best bet strategy with the US ladies? Split up the short and long amongst two athletes? Or try to count on one (e.g., Ashley as the "veteran") to handle the pressure, and deliver two consistent enough programs?

As a newbie, I would pick Ashley for SP and Mirai for LP at this point. As much as I love Karen, she somehow cannot hit clean in team competition (WTT or JO) and her SP, while she scores better than Ashley in SC, is still not in her full potential...something is off. I really hope she bring back last year SP or 2015 SP. And her LP is too new to be considered at this point (I can see the potential but....)

 

[R.D.]

I just don't think Nagasu is consistent enough to rely upon in the team event, unfortunately. It could be a repeat of Abbott all over again...

Unless something big changes, there really are no good options for the US as far as ladies go. You COULD utilize Wagner for both portions - which carries risks of its own (and Wagner of course is no rock herself).

 

[johnsmith72]

Mirai has been very consistent with the long program though, but I do agree that her sp consistency is scary.

 

[NAOTMAA]

I just don't think Nagasu is consistent enough to rely upon in the team event, unfortunately. It could be a repeat of Abbott all over again...

Unless something big changes, there really are no good options for the US as far as ladies go. You COULD utilize Wagner for both portions - which carries risks of its own (and Wagner of course is no rock herself).

Considering that Ashley these days tends to shy away from, or is hesitant to do, competitions because there too close to nationals or too close to worlds and wants to "peak at the right moment and not burn out," I seriously doubt she would agree to do the SP AND LP for the team event so close to the ladies individual.

I think she'll agree to the SP just to help the team, and get a medal for participating in it, but the USFSA would most likely need to find another lady for the LP. Unfortunately all the other ladies have the same issues for the most part so its not so clear cut. It's a lot harder then 2014 when it was a no brainer.

I don't know the rules : but do they have to choose from the 3 ladies who make it for the individual event or can they pick a separate fourth girl just for the team event?

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

I think she'll agree to the SP just to help the team, and get a medal for participating in it, but the USFSA would most likely need to find another lady for the LP. Unfortunately all the other ladies have the same issues so its not so clear cut. It's a lot harder then 2014

Oh no...who would that be? I'd be down with Mirai's SP but the FS is not a good idea. Unless she improves it I'd be afraid that it might not be the best first impression at the Olympics for her. Karen Chen has a nice FS but we still haven't seen it since it's debut and at that point it was just a couple of weeks old.

 

[Skater Boy]

I tell you, Ashley don't get no respect
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q4JdDWBqjbg&t=1m20s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q4JdDWBqjbg&t=2m56s

That's not even getting into our sport's newfound obsession with arm variations ...

Ashley has experience, power and she can sell a program. Polina is very inexperienced on the senior circuit. Just because Polina T did well at NHK is not an indicator she will do well at Skate America - but the p ressure is on for Polina to get her name out there - if she wants the third spot ahead of Maria or the slew of other ladies.

 

[R.D.]

We'll see Edmunds again next weekend so that will be a good opportunity to see where she's at. I'm not sure where to slot her in at this point, but I think for the most part, for now she is on the outside looking in.

I don't know the rules but do they have to choose from the 3 ladies who make it for the individual event or can they pick a separate fourth girl just for the team event?

No, they choose from the skaters already named to the overall team.

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

I’ve been digging all these Baby Polina videos and stories she’s been sharing.

https://instagram.com/p/BbYTmPsH92l/

 

[frida80]

Oh no...who would that be? I'd be down with Mirai's SP but the FS is not a good idea. Unless she improves it I'd be afraid that it might not be the best first impression at the Olympics for her. Karen Chen has a nice FS but we still haven't seen it since it's debut and at that point it was just a couple of weeks old.

Mirai curently has scored the highest with the FS. 134 in JO. It's relatively stable. She's had a TES of 61 in the CoR. Putting her in the FS would be a good idea because of that.

In any case, it's irrelevant who is in the FS. I've done several calculations for each variation that the final could be. Every time the US ends up with 29 points. Ladies will always be third or fourth because they cannot beat Kaetlyn, Zhenia, Alina, Carolina, or Wakaba. The part of the team that can win or lose the bronze medal for the USA is pairs SP. So it really doesn't matter who does the FS for ladies.

Sadly, if someone from the US could beat Kaetlyn, it would put team Canada's gold at risk. They don't have a lot of wiggle room.

 

[NAOTMAA]

No, they choose from the skaters already named to the overall team.

I was sure this was it but I figured I ask anyway

I think they should at least after 2018 consider changing the rule and allowing countries the option of selecting a skater for the team event who doesn't participate in the individual but that's just me. I doubt most countries would take advantage of that but having the option would be nice

 

[frida80]

Ashley has experience, power and she can sell a program. Polina is very inexperienced on the senior circuit. Just because Polina T did well at NHK is not an indicator she will do well at Skate America - but the p ressure is on for Polina to get her name out there - if she wants the third spot ahead of Maria or the slew of other ladies.

She is very inexperienced and prone to underrotations. However I'd is one of the best rising seniors on the GP this year. She's Eteri student with excellent jump technique. At worst, she will be in the high 190's. But I expect her to be at the 200's to 210. She'll be very hard to beat.

 

[chuckm]

Ashley has experience, power and she can sell a program. Polina is very inexperienced on the senior circuit. Just because Polina T did well at NHK is not an indicator she will do well at Skate America - but the p ressure is on for Polina to get her name out there - if she wants the third spot ahead of Maria or the slew of other ladies.

The pressure was heavier on Polina at the RUSSIAN CUP events where the competition is much stiffer than what she will get at a GP event, and she was returning from a break when she was off-form due to a congenital injury.

She easily won bronze at NHK, where she skated with power and confidence, and there's no one at the level of Medvedeva or Kostner at SA. Polina is a lot luckier in her GP events than Maria Sotskova, who got Osmond in both her events, plus Zagitova at TDF. Maria's only chance to make the final is if one of Osmond or Zagitova has a meltdown---and that means she has no chance at all.

If Ashley was a consistent technical skater she might be able to beat Polina. But the Ashley since Worlds 2016 has been consistent only in the dings she gets at nearly every competition: 3f+3t<, 3f<, 3ze, and even 3lo<. Her BV may be the same as her competitors, but her TES is a lot lower: skaters like Zagitova and Tsurskaya get +GOE on jumps where Ashley is getting -GOE.

Even Ashley's high PCS can't make up for a huge gap in TES. And Polina's PCS at NHK wasn't exactly low: 8.36 8.00 8.32 8.21 8.21 in the FS.
Polina got +GOE on every element, L4 on all 3 spins and L4 on her step sequence. She got 8s from every single judge except one (the Italian judge---who gave her 9s).

I watched Polina compete in the JGP and she skated perfectly in every single competition and won all four of them, as well as the 2015-16 JGPF. Now that her injury has healed, I don't see any reason why she would not skate as well at SA as she did at NHK. She'll have a week to rest and recoup, and if she wasn't intimidated by Medvedeva and Kostner, she won't be intimidated by the skaters at SA.

 

[NAOTMAA]

You don't think they would artificially up the PCS marks for Ashley to make sure she beats Polina at SA like they did for Carolina at NHK? They could even ignore the urs too and give her the benefit of doubt when push comes to shove. I would think they would do all they can to make sure Ashley wins SA unless she blows it that bad technically. USFSA wouldn't want their #1 on home ice losing to a country's #3/4 ranked skater if can be avoided

 

[chuckm]

She is very inexperienced and prone to underrotations. However I'd is one of the best rising seniors on the GP this year. She's Eteri student with excellent jump technique. At worst, she will be in the high 190's. But I expect her to be at the 200's to 210. She'll be very hard to beat.

I looked up Polina's JGP record and she is not "prone to URs". The only time she had multiple URs (2) was at 2017 JW when she was suffering from a injury and really should not have competed (she had withdrawn from the JGPF in Dec 2016 because of that same injury). But during the 5 competitions of her JGP career, including 10 SPs and 10 FSs, she had exactly one UR and one fall, and she won all 5 competitions. She has been an amazingly consistent skater.

 

[chuckm]

You don't think they would artificially up the PCS marks for Ashley to make sure she beats Polina at SA like they did for Carolina at NHK? They could even ignore the urs too and give her the benefit of doubt when push comes to shove. I would think they would do all they can to make sure Ashley wins SA unless she blows it that bad technically. USFSA wouldn't want their #1 on home ice losing to a country's #3/4 ranked skater if can be avoided

One problem is the technical panel. No one can control the TES, and that's where Ashley loses points every time. And USFS can't control the judging panel, either. Ashley gets PCS scores in the mid to high 8s; no panel of judges is going to hand out Kostner-level 9s to ensure a US skater win.

If Ashley skates a decent SP, her score should be reasonably close to Polina's because there are a limited number of elements.
Polina got 38.78 TES at NHK to Ashley's 28.10 TES at SC where she got < on both the 3t and 3lo. Polina's PCS was 31.26 (high 7s); Ashley's 33.47 (low 8s). I'd hope the TS at SA will not be quite as much of a butcher and I expect Ashley's PCS to be higher.

The FS, though is another matter. Polina scored a massive 74.38 TES at NHK. Ashley's TES was 54.87 with 3 URs and a 3ze.
And even though Kostner got 62.96 TES and 75.71 PCS, Polina still beat her in the FS. Kostner edged her overall because of her SP score.

If Polina turns in a squeaky-clean SP and FS, the judges will reward her with PCS scores similar to what she got at NHK.
They will definitely give Ashley higher PCS scores than what she got at SC, but they can't give her 10s.

Look at it this way: there are NINE judges on the panel,

There may be, based on the competitors in this event:
- A US judge
- A Canadian judge
- A Russian judge
- A Japanese judge
- A Chinese judge
- A Korean judge
- A Slovak judge

Obviously, not all of these judges are going to be motivated to put Ashley on top of the podium.

And that's as it should be. The best skater should win the event. If Ashley is not the best skater, she should not win.

 

[skatefan17]

I can't believe people are debating if Ashley can win Skate America. Have you been sleeping during every competition she's done in the last year to year and a half? She doesn't have the technical goods or GOE to best Tsurskaya or even Daleman. She would be lucky to earn another bronze.